MNF – Bengals at Giants – @jayhatton49

So of course I get a record number of views the week that I completely stunk up the place, thanks for looking! Maybe I got over confident, maybe I got a bit cocky and ignored the obvious bets and concentrated too much on what I thought was value. At least David Johnson got his Td seeing as I described that as ‘practically guaranteed’… Bryce Treggs for example, halved in price from when I posted it, but did nothing at all. I’m not sure, but tonight should be the start of going back to where we were. We lost 30 points of our 80 profit on the year, which definitely hurts especially when we’ve gained followers week on week. It’s not usually that bad! But that’s why we use points, it helps manage your bankroll. If you look back at the weekly tips and writeup in the menu it’s got our full history with some nice winners on there.

I’ve got a couple of bets on tonight for anytime TD scorers. Managed to get Roger Lewis at 16/1 that price has long gone. He’s now 10/3 on 365. He’s a long shot again. He’s had 3 receptions this season, 2 of them have been touchdowns. That was with Victor Cruz fit and playing, he’s probably out which should mean a bump for Lewis as he’ll likely be in for most 3 Wr sets. Because of the Cruz injury I’ve also gone with Eifert and Shepard both to score 15/2 at Skybet. Eifert was back and looking goooooood in London last time the Bengals played and Shepard should be the no.2 target behind a certain Mr Beckham Jnr. Paul Perkins has been getting more and more action at RB and only has Rashard Jennings as competition there who is distinctly average both had practically identical stats last week, Perkins beating him on ypc by a tiny amount, they got 11 each and 3 catches each. I got 5/1 on him and posted it on twitter, so some may have taken that price. 7/2 seems the best available now. It’s worth noting the Bengals are now the favourite for the match after being 2.5pt underdogs all well, they’re now 1 pt favourites. so there’s been a lot of money for them to win!

I’ve asked Jay to sort the write up for my match as it’s my team and I find it hard to be positive when it’s about them, for what it’s worth tonight should be a really good match, the 3-4-1 Bengals travel over to the Metlife to take on the 5-3 Giants.

As usual bets posted after the write up

*I disagree with Jay. Who Dey!

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MONDAY NIIIIIGHT FOOTBAAAAALL!! I love Monday Night Football. As a kid that was all that was available on Channel 4 with Gary Imlach, who I think still does Italian Football? Could be wrong. There was also a former kicker called Mick Luckhurst or something like that. It was a full game with roundups in  between and man I used to look forward to it on Tuesday (obviously I wasn’t allowed to stay up). This was the game. THE game of the week that the NFL wanted you to see. But on to my point, Cincinnati @ New York. Bengals Vs Giants. Is this the game that everyone wants to see? Rewind 2 months ago you bet we all would have wanted to see this game but today, something seems to be missing.

I’ll start with one thing that you will be looking out for, and what you most certainly won’t miss, two of the best WR’s that you will see in the game today. AJ Green and Odell Backham Jr. Both game changers. Both electrifying but for very different reasons. No doubt most of you will know about Beckham’s sideline antics, his personal fouls, his ridiculous haircut. One thing that cannot be denied is that he literally has the ability to change a game in a heartbeat. One turn, one catch, one spin move and he is gone. AJ Green is quite the opposite from a personality standpoint but is just as productive. Explosive at the point of attack, a master of catching at the highest point of the pass, his production is unquestionable. Personally, I would take AJ Green over Beckham any day from a team standpoint, he goes about his business, no funny business, no tantrums and quietly and so business like, he dominates opposing cornerbacks. Beckham will get the highlights and is much streakier but when he goes off, no one on the planet is as sudden or as equally volatile. Start both in fantasy land no matter who they are playing. From a production standpoint, Beckham and Green are 3rd and 4th respectively in receiving yards since 2014.Green is the single most targeted player within an offense with 31% of his QB’s throws.Green is a deep threat and has the most receptions over 30 yards this year with 7. I think I mentioned a few weeks ago that the Bengals are winless when Green does not get 100 yards receiving this year. Beckham is streaky, and has some real dud games when Eli Manning is able to spread the ball about but not many people can erupt for 200+ yards in a game like he can. Despite the perceived poor season he is still 6th in receiving yards and 7th in touchdowns but he is certainly not getting as large a share of the ball as he did in his rookie year.

More on to the stuff that will actually affect this game. Cincinnati’s run game and New York’s really expensive defense. I have a love and hate fantasy relationship with Jeremy Hill. Whenever I don’t play him, he goes off for multiple touchdowns, when I play him he goes for negative yards and gets injured. Hence I dropped him a few weeks ago. The two backs, including Gio Bernard were one of the most productive pairings in the league but since Hue Jackson left for pastures new, their offense seems to lack creativity. They are ranked in the top 10 for both running and passing yards but 21st in actually putting points on the board. So they can pile it up but not finish. Tyler Eifert is back with a vengeance and is easily the biggest redzone threat. Hopefully some of their scoring issues will be resolved now that he is healthy and it can ease the pressure on Bernard being stuffed 3 times in a row at the 1 yard line. You could look at someone like Tyler Boyd who tends to pop up every now and then and Hill and Bernard as flex starts but other than Green, Eifert and even Dalton, I would really look at anyone else.

New York, big spenders in free agency, finally seem to be gelling together as a unit. Led by rising star safety Landon Collins, they have looked strong in the past few weeks. Collins is paving the way leading the Giants in tackles, interceptions AND sacks. Impressively they lead the league in red zone D allowing touchdowns on just 39% of drives. The Giants have struggled mightily with their pass rush and only have 11 sacks on the year, their improvement showing through in that 7 of those 11 have come in the last 3 weeks. A leaky offensive line allowing 25 sacks of Andy Dalton (2nd most in the league) may either get some respite or just as likely, continue this murky trend of leaving their QB with his face in the dirt.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Giants have Sterling Sheperd as their WR2 and has given solid WR2 production. Victor Cruz is quietly having a nice season after some injury issues. Sheperd is your flex for the week and offers a nice floor and potential high ceiling against the 21st rank Bengals pass D. For the Giants, and the issue they have had all season is the lack of a running game. When I say lack of a running game, I really mean they have no running game. At all. 68 yards a game. I’ll let that marinate for a second. To offer perspective, 13 running backs are averaging more running yards a game on their own.  Adding to this, they have 4 total running touchdowns and coincidentally 13 running backs have 5 or more individual touchdowns. As bad as Cincinnati have been on D, defending the pass becomes a whole lot easier when you don’t have to worry about the other team running the ball. Paul Perkins for the Giants could be a good player but I wouldn’t be worried if I was a Bengals fan.The ‘x’ factor in this game will be Eli Manning, I don’t want to write up too much on him as he has generally been unimpressive. When he is on form though, it makes the Giants pretty lethal.. If he has 0 ints and 2-3 touchdowns, the Giants generally win.

I would have honestly thought that this might be a shootout. Both defenses are playing okay, not great. With explosive offenses this is normally great TV. However, both teams are right around the 20 points a game mark so this could equally be a dud. I will base my prediction on the results of their last game. Cincinnati moved the ball well enough against the Redskins but failed to capitalize on numerous occasions and left London with a tie (lol). The Giants beat the Eagles in a tough division matchup. In the merry-go-round nature of the NFL the Eagles just beat the Falcons so the theory would be that they are on the rise. Despite a long week off returning from the UK, I don’t think the Bengals have enough firepower to compliment AJ Green in the air or on the ground to win away from home.

Winner – Giants

@jayhatton49

Bets for the night

  • Beckham anytime – 10/11 – NAP – 5pts
  • AJ Green anytime – Evens – 3pts
  • Eifert and Shepard both to score – 15/2 (Skybet) – 2pts

I wouldn’t put anyone off going with Rogers Lewis at 5/1 still but it’s a long shot and after the weekend I’ve had I don’t want to put it on record.

Good luck people!

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