First of all, a thank you to @cornersbychris and @thetippingtimes on twitter for giving me a bit of promotion over the last couple off weeks, I’m sure quite a few people reading this would have stumbled on it from them retweeting, and Thursdays post got the most views we’ve had barring the Superbowl last year, and it’s very much welcomed! Give them a follow back if you don’t already!
Anyway…what a Thanksgiving Thursday we had, 6 out of 10 of the bets we posted landed, Asiata anytime at 21/10, The tribet on that match 9/5, Cowboys by 1-13 at 5/6, Steelers game u48 points, the treble on those three at 5.56/1, and 2 of the 3 First TD scorers on the trixie, which ended up at 7.25/1! Meaning that we finished the day nearly 35 points up! I was worried when the Steelers match went to half time at 21-7, but luckily it all dried up in the second half and was actually pretty comfortable in the end. I need to put a little shout out to @JackT_95 for making me aware of the Betway not changing the Colts team points on Wednesday night and giving me a nice profit on u25 pts at evens, I posted it on twitter at the time, so hopefully some people saw it and took it as well. As it turned out even the things I didn’t put as tips in the write ups came in as well, I said lean towards Boldin if you wanted a Lions TD scorer, Dak went o15.5, I was right to avoid Zeke o101.5, Dwayne Allen went over his yards, TY was under his.. So amazingly it could of been a 50point profit day if I’d have gone on all of those as well! (In the interest of clarity I should probably mention Ebron missed his yards by a lot… He didn’t get a catch…at all… ZERO).
Anyway, enough looking back and tooting my own horn, as much as I enjoy it when it all goes well.
First game up on Sky sees the The Cardinals travel to Atlanta to take on the free-scoring Falcons – The Cardinals have been a big disappointment this year after making the NFC championship game last year. Quarterback Carson Palmer hasn’t been himself this year throwing multiple interceptions in consecutive matches, this has hit the team hard, and they’re sitting second in their division on 4-5-1. Luckily for the Cardinals they have arguably the best running back in the league in David Johnson, he’s on 863 rushing yards, 510 receiving yards, and 12 TDs on the season so far this season, he is pretty much carrying the team at the moment. Helping out in the receiving department is Larry Fitzgerald who just carries on and on, he’s having another fantastic year after his career best last term. The other receivers have various issues on the year, Floyd appears to be carrying a hamstring injury, and has otherwise been inconsistent anyway, John Brown has the sickle cell trait which has been slowing him down, JJ Nelson came in, and dropped a few. They don’t have much at tight end, although Jermaine Gresham got into the end zone against the Vikings last time out. The only reason they have the record they do is because their Defence has stepped up this year and are their keeping games close.
The Falcons have become the team that the Cardinals were last year, they have options all over the field and are prolific on offence. Matt Ryan is having a career year, he’s second in passing yards, only a few yards behind Drew Brees, and it’s safe to say he’s balling, and what’s better for him is that he’s not afraid to spread it around now that the Falcons have more options than just Julio. Mr. Jones has cemented himself as a top 3 WR, he doesn’t care about double coverage, he’ll just jump over the top of them and catch it anyway. If he’s double covered, or as is more likely covered by Patick Peterson then it should leave space for tight end Austin Hooper and Mo Sanu to get the yards, if they’re covered then Levine Toilolo will get his bulk in the way and come down with the ball, worth mentioning again that the Cards are no.1 vs the tight end and haven’t given up a TD to one all season. Last time out Tyler Gabriel even caught a pass… for 76 yards and a touchdown. Tevin Coleman should be back this week after nearly a month off through injury, even with that month, he’s their top TD scorer with 6 on the season. He’s been a pretty important bit of the offence sharing the backfield with Devonta Freeman meaning that neither of them get tired and are on full for the entire game. Their defence struggles though which is part of the reason they’re so high scoring. They have to be.
This is actually quite a hard match to call once again. In theory it should be high scoring, the Falcons score a ton of points, especially at home, the Cardinals SHOULD be capable of scoring a lot. However, the Cards defence is very good, and they are struggling to score on offence, so I can see it being quite low scoring as well. I’m leaning towards the unders… under 52.5 is 4/5 on Skybet, it’s a couple of point above the general totals, so gives a little more leeway, BUT they’re averaging 60pts a game, and they’ve only been u55 3/10 this season, so I’ll give it a miss. I was hoping that Julios yards would be set to close to 100 and go for unders, but they’re 83.5, that’s about where he should get, i’d still lean unders if he’s covered by Pat Pete though. In theory if Julio is covered then Mo should get some action, he’s 10/13 to go over 46.5 on Bet365, I like that. Tevin Coleman is rested and back, he’s averaged just over 80 combined yards in his 7 matches this season, only Seattle have shut him down, and only 2 of his matches this season have been under the 52.5 set.
Mohammed Sanu yards – over 46.5 – 10/13 (365) Tevin Coleman combined yards – over 52.5 – 5/6 (PP)
What should be the best match of the day is the second televised match on Sky, the Carolina Panthers travel over to the black hole to get beaten by the AFC leading Oakland Raiders. The Panthers are coming off a 10 day break after their divisional win over the Saints which kept them in with a small chance in their division, although their schedule is really tough on paper. Unfortunately for them, they lost Luke Kuechly and Ryan Kalil in that match, two essential members of their team. Kuech the geek (please don’t tell him I said that) is their best defensive player, and Kalil is a vital part of their offensive line. Once those two went out last week the Saints began their comeback and the Panthers really struggled to gain first downs. Oh, team sack leader, Mario Addison is also out. On offence we all know who the Panthers are, they run through Cam, he’s the main rushing attack, much to the pain of Jonathon Stewart fantasy owners, the guys good, but under-used. Greg Olsen should do well against a defence that’s not very good in the middle of the field. It’s tough to figure who will get the catches at WR though; as it happens Ted Ginns TD last week shouldn’t of come as a surprise, he was the most targeted in the two weeks previous, and he should match up well against the Raiders who have an improving, but not stellar D. Kelvin Benjamin has been solid enough and remains a good red zone threat for the Panthers.
The Raiders have been one of the most entertaining teams in the league this season, thanks in large parts to the form of Derek Carr at QB, he’s well and truly made the leap this year, and is one of the least hit/sacked QBs in the league and is top 10 in all measurables, TDs, Pass completion, years and QB Rating. It helps having sophomore star Amari Cooper to throw to, he’s 5th in the league in yards this year, and if he remains on the rate he’s been on is set to break 1,400 and the franchise record for receiving yards. Opposite him is Michael Crabtree who’s the main touchdown threat for this team, doesn’t get the huge yardage, although he’s definitely capable of it, he’s actually gone 3 games without a TD, and is carrying a bit of a knock this week, but i’m pretty sure one of these two will score against the Panthers D that’s been poor vs the pass all season. Talking of not getting yardage, but being a TD threat… Latavius Murray is the leading RB for the team this year, he’s scored in 5 of the 9 games he’s played, and is 5th in the league in TDs from RB with 8, although 3 in a game vs Denver helps. He won’t blow you away watching him run, but he gets the job done efficiently. It was the pass catching ability of their backs which got the job done last week, Jamize Olawale smashing off a 75 yard TD run, and Jalen Richard also getting in after a catch from the backfield. I said last week that the Raiders gameplan very well, and they should do this week too, despite a shortened week compared to the Panthers.
I can’t see the Panthers staying in the game with the injuries I’ve mentioned above. The Raiders should have too much for them, although are usually involved in tight games, so I don’t think they’ll run away with it, in theory it should be on Carr’s shoulders as the Panthers pass D is quite a way behind their rush D. Ted Ginns yards are 37.5 on bet365, he’s gone over that the past 5 weeks running, and 7 of 11 in total this season.
Raiders -3 – 10/11 (various places), Greg Olsen anytime – 13/8 (WillHill) Ted Ginn anytime- 4/1 (Betfred) Ted Ginn o37.5yds – 5/6 (365) – NAP – 5pts
Last televised game up on Sunday night is the flexed in Chiefs at Broncos, and I admire your stamina if you manage to last through this one at 130am. It’s looking like it will be a defensive battle and a low scoring affair all round, the total points are set to 39.5, it’s not often you see matches set to anything under 40! So… where to start on a defensive battle, they’re never good for betting purposes. The Chiefs have been the same team for the last 20 odd weeks, and it works for them, their record in regular season games in that time is literally second to none. That came crashing back to earth due to a humbling defeat to an average Tampa Bay team last week. They had a couple of injuries which really hurt them, Marcus Peters is their best defensive player, and top pass rusher Dee Ford were both out. Peters is expected back which is a big help, but Ford likely misses out again. Usually my write ups are 90% offense based… goes to show how this team works. Spencer Ware has been disappointing in recent weeks, but he’s all they’ve got really. Maclin at WR is out again, Charizard West is likely out with concussion, so… Well… in fairness they’ve got Tyreek Hill who looks very good as a deeper threat, but unfortunately, they’ve got a QB who can’t/won’t throw the ball more than 20 yds, so that kinda negates him as well. The cheifs game plan may actually match up well to the Broncos strengths, their secondary is brilliant, but they can be beaten in the run game, just ask the Raiders, so if Ware can’t get it going against then just give it up.
Ok, so first off, I hate the Broncos, they’re a filthy team who bore the hell out of me! The Broncos aren’t much more exciting than the Chiefs offensively, they have two apparently good wide receivers Manny Sanders and Deamryius Thomas. I don’t rate them, although it’s more than likely the scheme the guys play in and they QB they’ve got passing to them. They did all blow up for one game this season against my Bengals, but other than that, they’ve been pretty average, and I can’t trust them week in, week out – Thomas has 5 TDs and 678 yards on the season, Sanders 3 TDs and 668, they’ve both only been over 100 yards once – against my Bengals. Devontae Booker looked for a game or so like he’d be a direct replacement for CJ Anderson in the running game, but he’s flattered to deceive in recent games as well, not averaging many yards, or TDs, Kapri Bibbs has even been able to get in on his workload, which is something I didn’t see coming. Their tight ends are ineffective as well. God this is a miserable write up. I’m sorry, but there’s just nothing there.
The Broncos should win coming off their bye week, they’re fully fit, and that defence at full strength rarely gets beaten, especially by a team as blunt as the Chiefs. This is a match for football purists, not betting. And i’m tempted to just avoid the whole damn thing. In fact, sod it, I don’t want to waste my money, or possibly other peoples. It’s a miss.
D/ST TD scored – 9/4 (365) This is usually set at 7/4, with two defensively strong teams here, i’ll take the 9/4 and leave it at that.
Various others from around the league –
The Ravens will beat the Bengals, they’re seriously beaten up, they lost AJ Green and Gio Bernard last week, and have 2 of their best 3 safetys missing today as well, they go up against the best run D in the league with just Jeremy Hill, and are relying on a Veteran and a Rookie to get yards in through the air. Eifert is now their main target. I’ve been on the Ravens -4 all week. They’ve now nudged down to -3.5, so i’ll drop a touch more and go for Ravens -3 at 4/5.
The Ravens handicap needs to be doubled up with the Titans handicap, while they’ve not been the most reliable team in the world, they’re going up against a decimated Bears team with their 3rd string QB, missing their best WR, and 3 key defensive players. The Titans should walk this, -6pts is a lot away from home, but I think they’ll make it. Titans -5.5 at 4/5 in most places. and the Double at 2.24/1
Tight end trixie for the week – Delanie Walker (TEN)- 15/8, CJ Fed (HOU)- 4/1 (Last time I go on him if it fails again, he’s dead to me) Will Tye (NYG)- 13/5 – All at PP – usual 0.5 – 2pts total
After getting 2/3 and a tasty return on that for the first TD scorer bet on Thursday, it would be silly not to give that a bash again. Rashad Jennings (NYG) 8/1, Steve Smith (BAL) 9/1, LeSean McCoy (BUF) 6/1 all at PP again, best combined odds although Smith was around 10/1 elsewhere the others were lower. 0.5 Patent- 3.5pt total. Because of the odds, I’ll go for a patent, if one of them comes in, it’s profit straight away then.
I like the look of Colin Kaepernick anytime at 5/1 on Skybet, I actually think the one and niners are in with half a chance of sneaking a win here, the Dolphins are missing a few key components on their offensive line, so may struggle to get the ball moving on offence. Kaep has actually been pretty good in the games he’s played this year. It’s also tempting to take u 105yards for Ajayi because of the OL problems they’re having, but it balances out with the 49ers run D being historically bad, so I can’t do it.
Big play Barnidge should get more targets with McCown being at QB for the Browns, but if you’re trusting the browns for anything then it’s a sad cold day in hell.
Tyler Lockett for the Seahawks is interesting, he’s 3/1 in a game that the Seahawks should win, and should score quite a lot of points, he’s becoming fitter after struggling with injury at the start of the season as well… BUT there’s a lot of options for Wilson at Seattle so I’ll give him a miss as well… Oh, one complete dart throw for the Seahawks was George Farmer at 20/1 (Who?!) Obviously Thomas Rawls will be the main back for them, Alex Collins is a straight ahead runner, and their no.2 but they signed this Farmer off the practise squad this week and he could get a small, minute look in as a change of pace back, at 20/1 on Skybet, I’ve had 0.5 pt on him (he’s 13/2 on 365) – Not a recommendation for a tip, so I won’t record it, but thought i’d just give people a heads up.
Love my both players to score trixie though, so Walker and Howard – (Ten v Chi) – 5/1, Brate and Graham (Tam v Sea) – 8/1, Shepard and Jennings (Cle v NYG) – 0.5 – 2 total
I think that’s about it from around the league, not much on my shortlist this week to be honest that i’ve not mentioned from the televised matches.
Summary – as usual 2 pts unless stated.
- Mohammed Sanu yards – over 46.5 – 10/13 (365)
- Tevin Coleman combined yards – over 52.5 – 5/6 (PP)
- Raiders -3 – 10/11 (various places)
- Greg Olsen anytime – 13/8 (WillHill)
- Ted Ginn anytime- 4/1 (Betfred)
- Ted Ginn o37.5yds – 5/6 (365) – NAP – 5pts
- D/ST TD scored – 9/4 (365)
- Ravens – 3 – 4/5
- Titans -5.5 at 4/5
- and the Double at 2.24/1 – Both on Alt. Handicap on 365.
- add the Raiders -3 for a treble at 4.94/1
- TE Trixie – 2pts
- First TD scorer patent – 3.5pts
- Kaep anytime – 5/1 (Skybet)
- BPTS Trixie – 2pts
34.5 pts outlay.
Good luck if you’re on, and let me know if there’s anything that’s caught your eye this week.
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