And so comes the end of the thanksgiving weekend, games, and what a week it’s been for our tips. After accruing 34 points of profit on Thursday, We hit 8/15 yesterday, for, I believe another 17pts profit, to take us to 51pts for the week…so far, (Both early handicaps hit, and obviously the double on them, Ted Ginn yards were the NAP, that hit along with his anytime TD at 4/1 on Betfred, all from one big play. Sanu got his yards, the Chiefs game had a special teams TD at 9/4, so all went pretty well! My TD scorer bets were useless, and Tevin Coleman did very little, Taylor Gabriel stole his yards with two impressive rus. BUT that’s now 98pts profit on the year, almost doubling my starting 100pt bank. For the first year of us doing the tips and bets, i’m very happy, especially after the first week or two we had! It’s a shame that @Jayhatton49 beat me this week in our fantasy league, but I have beaten him the other 3 times our teams have faced each other, so I guess I can let him have this win. – Now that the results, and followers are increasing I’ll definitely be trying to get some people involved in a league next year! We seem to have some pretty knowledgeable followers who have helped win some money for us too.
On to tonight’s matchup, and it’s a difficult one to call, one team has a very good defence, but a pretty woeful passing game with receivers who don’t want to catch the ball, the other has an awful secondary that can get destroyed, and no run game to speak of. It’s going to be an interesting game, that’s for sure. – The Packers haven’t conceded this many points in such a short span since the early 50s, their last four games they’ve conceded, 33,31,47 and 44 vs the Redskins last week, that’s pretty awful. In fact, it’s terrible, and the injuries that have caused that don’t seem to be clearing up for this week either… This does however that the Packers have to score, and they have been doing that, in the 4 games they’ve been battered, they’ve scored nearly 27 per game. So… Surely everything is heading towards overs tonight?! Aaron Rodgers has been critical of his team, and he’s been criticised from a lot of places too, which is harsh, he’s a top top QB and feels let down by the rest of his team, he’s allowed to be a bit pissed off that his hard work is being let down by the other half of the team. Jordy Nelson in recent weeks has become the main red zone threat for the team, and I believe he leads the league in red zone targets this season, so it’s likely he’ll get on the score sheet again, even against a solid Eagles defence. Davante Adams has emerged this season, and has been a great chain mover for the team, he’s racking up the yards frequently and should be used a lot again today. Randall Cobb is the one Packer I drafted in most fantasy leagues…He’s been dogshit all season, and I can’t trust him in the slightest. The running was clear for a week or two, it was James Starks…then Christine Michael got signed. He’s spent a fortnight learning the playbook, although if you believe the rumours that won’t help much as he was supposedly let go by Seattle as he just did what he wanted anyway. However, he’s a good runner, and better than what they already had, they’ve said he will make his debut tonight, and when he’s hot he’s hot, I like him, especially at the prices available. Jared Cook turned out a performance that analysts were hoping for all season last week, putting up 105 yards from 6 catches and getting a TD in there as well. That was by far his best performance of the year, so he’ll be good to keep an eye on for future weeks.
The Eagles as mentioned have a very good defence, and have won every home game this season, beating the Steelers, Vikings and Falcons along the way (also the Browns…) conceding at most 15 points in the process. That’s mighty impressive. I think they’ll concede more tonight though against a Rodgers led offence (although u16 GB pts is 14/5 if you think otherwise) Their defence has been on fire at home, putting QB after QB under pressure and forcing 3 and outs, or turnovers. Special teams have also stepped up for them, Wendel Smallwood who looks like he could be the main back tonight, or at worst share with Darren Sproles, has a kick return on his CV for the season and is a good runner. Sproles is more of a pass catching back and didn’t do much with his opportunity to lead the team a few weeks back. He’ll carry on doing what he does. The Packers have been hurt a lot in the middle of the field on this recent run, so slot receiver and tight end are the guys i’ll be looking at. That probably means Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz. Now I’ll be honest, I don’t really trust either of these guys, Ertz has 1 TD on the season, although he is one a 1 game streak at the moment, and Matthews suffers from skillet hands as do most of the Eagles offence, and he’s only got 3 TDs on the season as well. The decision is, do I believe this GB defence is bad enough to allow 20 targets to these two so either, or both can score a touchdown off their 2 catches each. It’s a tough one. 2nd overall draft pick Carson Wentz is still in charge at QB, and as I said last week when they had a televised match, seems to have been found out, or suffering a slump, either way, he’s not performed too well recently, only 2 pass TDs in the last 3 games, and they both came last time out. Last game up, I mentioned Bryce Treggs at some big odds, he failed that night with nothing at all..BUT i’m going to go again on him. He’s the downfield threat they need and it’s been proven they’ve got no-one else who can catch the ball… at 17/2 he’s worth a punt. They also promoted Paul Turner from the practice squad, I’ve heard/read good things about him, but there’s no prices anywhere on him, which is pretty annoying as Rap Sheet (NFL Insider Ian Rapoport) reported earlier that Nelson ‘drops’ Agholar could be inactive with Turner coming in, sharing the slot and wide out with Matthews. I was hoping for someone to have him at 20/1, but doesn’t look like they know of him at all. Anyway… Dorial Green-Beckham. He’s massive. Doesn’t do much, but really should, they’ve tried to get him involved more recently.
So onto my suggestions… It’s been a cracking weekend, so I wouldn’t be surprised if these flopped, so take this as a warning! Also, I’ve said it every time, but I keep going back there, these 3 players to score bets are not a sensible thing to do, but damn it, they’re tempting, and after the week we’ve had, I don’t mind risking a couple of pts.
In fact, I’m sticking to single point stakes tonight unless stated, as they’re all pretty much long shots. (Other than the NAP, which should hopefully cover all the rest) There’s been 260 points in GBs last 4 games, 65 per game! Surely someone must be scoring pts in every quarter here, even if the Eagles are solid at home.
- Points scored in every quarter – 1/2 – 10pts (Skybet)
- Matthews, Nelson, Adams – 22/1 (Skybet)
- Bryce Treggs anytime – 17/2 (PP)
- Bryce Treggs anytime – 125/1 (PP)
- Christine Michael anytime – 5/1 (Skybet) – 2pts
- C Mike 2 or more – 60/1 (365)
16 points outlay.
Apologies for the overly long write up on one game and good luck, hopefully we’ll finish off the week 12 games in style!
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