Week 15 tips and televised write up – @TouchdownTips

So, i’m going to open the Kimono here, peek above the treetops, air it out… I have had very little sleep after going to the casino last night, and i’m feeling a little worse for wear… Although waking up to 3 out of 4 on last nights tips has made me feel a little better! Robby Anderson and Bilial Powell easily got their yard targets, and Dion Sims doubled up his anytime TD at 4/1.. Probably should of gone with 2 or more as well, darn it. Jack Tuffy over on twitter also told me about Matt Moore’s passing yards, but I couldn’t play that knowing that he hadn’t had a meaningful snap in 5 years, he did beat the 202, or 192, or whatever you found quite easily though, and got himself 4 bloody Touchdown passes! Tannenhill hasn’t had 4 all year, maybe things aren’t all that rough for Miami after all.

On to today, my Bengals got flexed out of prime time, possibly a good thing as they go up against the Steelers, but I would of loved to watch this game on Sky, but alas, they’ve gone with the Lions trip to NY to take on the Giants instead, which in fairness has more bearing on the playoff picture than anything involving Cinci at the moment, so I can’t altogether disagree. It’s unlikely to be an exciting point filled game though, neither team scores a huge amount, and games are normally kept close, the Lions have won more 4th quarter comebacks than any time in the history of football this season (not necessarily true) but it can’t be far off, Matthew (not Matt) Stafford has been clutch where it matters, and ran the ball in for the game winning touchdown last week after dislocating his middle finger, he doesn’t mind taking a hit if needs be. He’ll be playing this week with a fingerless glove with only his central digit protected. He wasn’t very good passing with it last week, so it would probably be wise to avoid anything relating to him this week at a cold Metlife, especially against a sold Giants defence who kept the Cowboys to 7 points last week. This means i’ll probably be fading Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Eric Ebron, Anquan Boldin and even Theo Riddick who does a lot of his work catching from the backfield. Tate has been in great form the last month, but ended a frustrating 6 yards short of his target last week much to my annoyance. Marvin Jones finally returned to a bit of form, with 67 yards, and Ebron caught his usual 4 receptions, he’s only got 1 TD on the season which was last week, as Boldin usually takes the red zone targets from him, if I was forced to pick anyone on this team it would probably be Boldin at the odds, but i’ll be leaving it all out. Theo Riddick is in fact doubtful, and I would assume out as he’s not practised all week, usual backup Zach Zenner is also out with a concussion, so their “running game” will be lead by Dwayne Washington with probably Michael Burton (?) as his backup, you can get 20/1 on Burton if you really wanted to do that!

The Giants have been mis-firing the whole seaon, I was half expecting Eli Manning to have a very good season. He hasn’t. He’s over 3000 yards, and has 23 TDs on the season, he’s finished with multiple TDs in 5 of the last 6 weeks, but with the attacking talents he’s got to throw to, I kind of expected more from him, he’s been under-throwing a lot of passes, and seems to have forgotten that Victor Cruz is playing. He does however have Odell Beckham Jnr. to throw to, he’s probably the best player in the league after the catch and took a simple 10 yard slant to the house last week from 60odd yards out, he’s still as exciting as ever to watch. With Sterling Shepard on the other side providing good support as well they should be an exciting team. They have a 9-4 record and beat the Cowboys for the second time this season, the only team who can defeat them apparently, but they’ve done this mainly due to their defense, they paid up in free agency and it’s gone well for them, last season they lost more close games than anyone else, this year they’ve won those games, Landon Collins, Olivier Vernon, Janoris Jenkins and Snacks Harrison have been impressive all year. Their running game has turned up, to a certain extent, Rashad Jennings has done well recently and Paul Perkins mixed in last week as well.

It’s a low total on this one, 40.5, but with both teams not exactly great on offence, and a very cold match, I think it will go under, I also like the tribet – any other result, all their games have been close this season and I don’t see that changing. This means that either team can win by a max. of 5 points for it to win.

Under 40.5 pts – 10/11 (most places) Tribet – any other result – 19/10

Next up on the old teleboxviewer is probably the best game of the weekend, the probably the best match of the weekend on paper, the Patriots go into mile high to take on the team that beat them in the championship game last year. The Broncos. There’s not a lot to say about these teams that I haven’t already said, I did a write up on the Pats on Monday and not a lot has changed player wise, although they did pick up somehow Michael Floyd in the week after apparently every other team in the league chose to give him a miss after he was waived by the Cardinals for a DUI, not just any DUI either, passed out in his car in the middle of the street apparently. Whoops. This looks like it will be a running based game for the Pats, the Broncos have the best pass D in the league, but their run D is fallable. The Pats have Blount who’s having a great year, as well as Lewis and White who have been splitting carries in recent weeks as pass catching backs. I’d expect the Pats to try and do what the Falcons did against the Broncos where Tevin Coleman hit them for 3 TDs and 140odd yards earlier in the season. If they do go through the air then Malcolm Mitchell and Chris Hogan are their most likely play-makers recently, although this could be a more Edelman and even a Bennett game if they choose to go a bit more conservative.

The Broncos have Trevor Siemian at QB who’s actually having a fairly decent season, he’ll be aiming for Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, as a duo they have the highest percentage of targets of any 2 WRs in the league, and that won’t change tonight. Sanders, to me remains the more likely to score a TD, but it wouldn’t shock me to see both of these guys get near to 100 yards each tonight. AJ Derby joined Denver from NE in this year, and he’s been mixing in more recently as well, although did end the game for the Broncos last week with a fumble that was recovered by the Titans. The Bronco run game is practically non-existent, Booker has not done well as a main RB, and Justin Forsett came in last week, fumbled and lost the ball on his first carry, but still got the snaps after that which highlights how little faith they’ve got in Booker at the moment.

This should be an intriguing game. The Broncos seem to have the Patriots, and Tom Bradys number, If I remember correctly he’s something like 2-7 vs them, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Denver win, but can you ever bet against the Pats?! They were very impressive against the Ravens on Monday who also had a very good defense, that game was only close due to a couple of special team errors, so I won’t be going near the spread or the total points.

I quite like Siemian pass attempts – o37.5 in this one, no run game means he’s going to have to throw a lot. He attempted 51 last week!

Siemian pass attempts – o37.5 – 4/5 (365)

Final game of the night sees a Buccaneers team on a roll with 5 consecutive wins take on the Cowboys on a losing streak (1 game is a streak right?) in Dallas. I can’t remember doing much of a write up on the Buccs this season which shows how quietly they’ve snuck into contention in the race for the NFC South. They’re joint top of that division with the Falcons, and are probably going to have to win out to take the title there, but the Falcons have a much easier remaining schedule. Their recent run has been based on defensive performances, and slowing the game down, meaning less total plays and less chances for the opposition to score (which is also something that Dallas like to do) They shut down the Saints last week, and have allowed just 16,21,5,17,10 points in the last 5 games. The 5 points came against the Seahawks. Very impressive. This has coincided with the return of Doug Martin, who hasn’t been putting up very good figures,  but seems to have balanced their offence a bit, instead of relying on Jameis Winstons play making ability, the guy has made some amazing plays this year when you think he’s going down he somehow manages to sneak out and throw, usually to Mike Evans (who has over 1000 yards on the season), or tight end Cameron Brate. Last week they welcomed back Charles Sims who looked good on his return from injury and should get a fair bit of action again this week.

Dallas have faltered a little recently, Dak now has a lot of film out on him and teams seem to have figured out how to slow him down, they lost a low scoring game to the Giants last week after struggling the week before against the Vikings the week before, those are two good defences, so it shouldn’t of come as that big a shock in all fairness, and both of those matches were away from home as well, they score more freely at home in general, so they should be better this week. Zeke Elliott will win offensive rookie of the year and should take the overall rookie of the year title as well (which we tipped pre-season, was hardly a mind-blowing pick mind you) he’s been amazing this year with nearly 1,400 yards and 12 TDs so far. They’ll use him a lot again as they have all season, slowing the game and keeping their defence off the field. Last week superstar wideout Dez Bryant caught one ball all game against the Giants, and then fumbled it. It’s safe to say they’ll probably try and get him more involved this week. Terrance Williams caught their TD last time out after blown coverage, he can get open on occasion but can’t be trusted betting wise. Cole Beasley was the main target earlier in the season, alongside Jason Witten while Dak was learning the league, that’s fallen off slightly recently, but he’ll probably still aim for these two more than anyone else.

The total in this match is set to 47, I think that’s really high, and is obviously based on performances earlier in the season rather than what has been happening recently, i’m more than happy to take the unders on that, and probably as my second best bet of the night. I was tempted with the Dallas team total as well, it’s set to 27 points, but they have cleared that in their last 4 home games, so that put me off slightly

Total points under 46.5 – Evens – NB – 4pts

Treble on the TV matches – under 40.5, Siemian pass attempts, under 46.5 – around 6/1 – 2pts

Other various ones from around the league, I mentioned a few at the end of my post last night…

Best bet of the night, I think has to be Ty Montgomery anytime, he got his first rushing TD last week for the Packers, and has been finally designated a running back this week, he ran with power and aggression last week against the Seahawks, and this week takes on the Bears, they’re a fairly good defence, but he should be able to get through. With that game being played in sub zero temperatures it will probably but quite close and rely on the run game more than usual. James Starks is out as well, leaving just C. Mike as competition in that department. He’s 11/4 anytime on William Hill… I like that price, it’s around 7/4 most other places. – I’ve already put 4pts on him from last night and counted it in the total outlay for yesterday.

I like Mike Gillislee anytime tonight too, he was the goal line back a couple of weeks ago and took 2 TDs from Shady, this week they face the Browns who are looking increasingly to go 0-16 and have an awful run defence. Defintely on him at 15/8 (Skybet)

The least ambitious bet of the weekend would be Lev Bell to score anytime vs the Bengals, he had 38 touches last week putting up 298 yards against the Bills. With the Bengals usually reliable against Antonio Brown, and Big Ben poor away from home in general (although annoyingly good against the Bengals) He’ll get a lot of carries again, unless Burfict destroys him again. But i’m going to avoid the 8/11 shot and go for Ladarius Green anytime at 2/1 on WillHill. The Bengals are completely useless vs the Tight end this season and Green is a bit of a beast. Unfortunately he’ll be the best Green in the game with AJ still out.

While looking at Adam Thielen yards, I noticed that you can get Kyle Rudoplh at 21/10 on Paddypower. I’m all over that, he’s not called the Red Zone reindeer for nothing, and with Christmas coming up it’s perfect that he’ll get in this week. Incidentally Thielens yards are at 62.5, I can only find that on Paddypower, I’ve got a Thielen he’ll get those yards against a crappy Colts defence, but it’s just a touch too high for my liking. Also in that game I was looking at Chester Rogers anytime hoping he’d be around 8s, but he’s best of 5/1 and it looks like Dorsett will be playing, so i’m not going near him now.

Jordan Matthews is a sneaky play for the Eagles, he’s not exactly amazing, but they have no-one else to throw to, and they won’t be able to run the ball on the Ravens either, he’s 6’3 and is going up against a ravens team missing their leading corner back, he’ll likely be up against a 5’10 defender so he’ll have a big advantage if anything is thrown in his area. His yards are a reasonable 56.5 on Sky and PP, I’ll take him to go over that.

I’m trying to cut down a bit this week, but it’s tough when there’s only as bunch of matches once a week! So much to choose from!

Summary of bets –

  • Under 40.5 pts – 10/11 (most places)
  • Tribet – any other result – 19/10
  • Siemian pass attempts – o37.5 – 4/5 (365)
  • Total points under 46.5 – Evens – NB – 4pts
  • TV Treble – 6/1ish – 2pts
  • Ty Montgomery anytime – 11/4 – NAP – 4pts (advised last night and counted on that sheet)
  • Gillislee anytime – 15/8 (Skybet)
  • Green anytime – 2/1 (WillHill)
  • Rudolph anytime – 21/10 (PP)
  • Jordan Matthews o56.5 yards – 10/11 (Skybet or PP)

Total for the day is a more reasonable 20 points.

Good luck if you’re following, and please have a read of my opinion piece on the London 2017 games! – https://touchdowntips.com/2016/12/16/the-london-games-2017-we-should-be-grateful/

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