First of all, if you can all go and have a read of my article on the London games announcement, that’d be great, took me a while, and it’s the first proper piece i’ve done that wasn’t betting related, so would like to get a lot of views for it, retweets would be great too if you can look on my profile for it, spread the love! – https://touchdowntips.com/2016/12/16/the-london-games-2017-we-should-be-grateful/
So, there’s no college football this week, so the NFL in its infinite wisdom has tried to cash in on that and get the college crowd watching their league, at least for this one week. And what better way to get people watching the NFL than BRYCE PETTY VS MATT MOORE!!!!!!!!!!! Yeah, guess that’s not quite what they envisioned when they set the schedule at the start of the season.
Pre-warning, this isn’t the best of write ups as well, it’s a shit game full of shit, led by backups, so there’s not a huge amount to get excited about.
Ryan Tannenhill was prevailing pretty well in hurricane conditions last week, he’d thrown 3 TDs and was easing his team to the win before Calais Campbell fell on him last week, injuring his knee. It could of been a lot worse, they thought it was a torn ACL, as it happens it’s just a strain and he should be back by the end of the season. But it does leave them led by a man who’s not played a meaningful snap in 5 years. He’s not actually an awful QB, so it shouldn’t change the way the Dolphins play to a huge extent, they will still try and base their game on Londonborn Ajayi (that’s his name now) It’s a strategy that’s been working pretty well, and by limiting Tannenhills responsibility he was putting together a nice season, well done Adam Gase, maybe there as such things as quarterback whisperers after all. The Jets run defence has been their strength this season, although they were gashed for 193 yards last week by Carlos Hyde, most of them in the first half, their changes at half time pretty much stopped that, and they came back from a 3-17 to eventually win in overtime. In the passing game they should have Devante Parker and Kenny Stills adding a downfield threat to the short passes for Jarvis Landry and Dion Sims, last week Landry and Stills were the guys with 10 targets combined, Sims has to be mentioned as he’s scored a couple of TDs in his last 3 games. I’m not an expert on Matt Moore, I must admit, but in general a backup QB will keep things simple and risk free, so i’d expect Landry to get a lot of the ball, with only a few looks downfield for Parker/Stills, but Moore seems to have a decent arm on him, so can go for them if needed.
The Jets have Bryce Petty under center… He’s been well, average so far, he’s hardly impressed, but seems to be getting the job done to a certain extent, I mean he beat a tanking San Francisco team last week. One thing that he has shown is a tendency to aim for Robby Anderson, he’s received some ridiculous amount of Pettys intended pass yards in the games they’ve played together, the last two weeks he’s had 12 and 11 targets, and got himself 160 yards in those two games, and I don’t see why that would stop tonight. Brandon Marshall has been a complete and total let down this year, I don’t trust him in the slightest, in fact, I hate him a little bit, I drafted him third round and he’s been total guff. He’s done very little the entire season, and in fact is questionable to play tonight, i’d say he’s been playing questionably all season… HAAAAAA. So the only other WR worth looking at here is Quincy Enunwa, he’s been playing well this season actually, had a couple of breakout weeks, but again, I don’t feel you can trust him, especially with Petty and his penchant for throwing to Anderson. Matt Forte left last weeks game after 5 carries with a knee injury which opened the door for Bilal Powell, who smashed the door to bit on his way through. He finished with 145 rush yards with 2 TDs and 34 receiving yards from 5 catches, again, this was against a historically bad 49ers team, but that’s still impressive figures for a guy taking over. He’s usually used as a pass catching back, so i’m surprised to see him only get the 5 catches, but obviously they needed him to carry the load for most of the game. Forte is listed as questionable, but I can’t see him playing after he’s not practised all week, so I think Powell will be in from the start. I think… think that means Brandon Wilds being the second choice RB? Nope, i’ve never heard of him either, he got his first two carries of his career last week, for 2 yards a piece.
The Dolphins are in with a chance of a playoff spot, the Jets are going to finish bottom of the division, handicap has the Dolphins winning by 2.5 points, if this was in Miami, that would probably be 7, they should beat the handicap here against an awful Jets team. Worth noting that TE Dwayne Allen scored 3 against the Jets in their last home match… Sims has 2 in 3 games… he’s 4/1… i’ll have a go on that.
- Anderson o53.5 rec. yds – 5/6 – (365) – 4pts
- Landry o4.5 catches – 10/11 (PP) – 2pts
- Powell o27.5 rec. yds – 5/6 – (365) 2pts
- Dion Sims anytime – 4/1 (WillHill) – 2pts
10 points total outlay.
Little nod towards the weekend, my shortlist consists of Dal v Buccs unders, i’m very confident on that one, and to the same extent, Dallas u27.5 team points seems easy money to me, Giants game – unders, Thielen anytime 5/2 currently (and possiblyb yardage), Iron Mike Gillislee, Lev Bell 1 or 2, Jordan Howard and Ty Montgomery, Crabtree, although his odds are rubbish… Chester Rogers 5/1 at the moment, depending on fitness of Dorsett, and Jordan Matthews getting some yards… More details tomorrow in the usual post, but just to let you know what i’m looking at. In fact, i’m going to get an anytime trixie or L15 on Thielen, Gillislee, Montgomery. In fact…
4 pts on Ty Montgomery anytime at 11/4 (William Hill) I think that’s a great price for their main running back, and he looked very good last week, as predicted by Jay…
14 pts total on the night.