Draft countdown – 4 days – a look at the odds

First of all, If you fancy a little challenge, I’ve set up a bit of a competition on the draft here – #NFLDraft competition time

On to the draft there’s still not that many markets about for the draft, and definitely nothing that looks too enticing frankly. Luckily for us this year all three days are live on Sky sports 2 using the direct NFL Network feed (although only seems to be day one and two on my planner at the moment) and if you don’t have Skysports, I believe NFL Network is free to access as well so no reason not to give it a watch. The first day is Thursday, kicks off at 1am GMT.

#1 overall pick 

There have been a few rumours around that the Browns will take a QB at #1 Mitch(ell) Trubisky is best priced at 16/1 on Skybet if you think that’s going to happen. Personally I don’t see it, but it’s tough to know what the Browns are thinking at any one moment in time. If they really want Trubisky I think he’ll probably be there at 12. There’s a chance that the Jets take a QB given the fact they have nothing else, but again I think they’ll be better off staying away from a QB given the strength of the rest of the positions they could choose at #6. Should probably mention that it really should be Myles Garrett taken at #1. He’s a best price of 1/12.

Top QB drafted

Unsurprisingly Trubisky is the favourite for no.1 QB (best priced 4/9) taken in the draft. I talked about Patrick Mahomes at nice odds (33/1 on PP, now into 11/2 on there…) in my earlier preview thread, and I think there’s a chance he’ll get taken by the Cardinals at #13, now obviously for that bet to win we’d need the Jets, Bills and Browns to all ignore the QBs on the board and pick at other positions. Will they do that? It’s possible, I’ve seen quite a few drafts where there’s no QB taken in the top half of the board, the later teams leave the QB the more chance it will be Mahomes taken first. Personally I think Deshaun Watson is the most ready to start for an NFL team, but people seem to think that Trubisky has shown enough in his 13 college starts to be deemed the top guy in what is known by most as a fairly average QB class. (Although looking at his stats, 40 of 47 in 9 games as a backup the year before he was the starter is a pretty good completion rate!) – For the record I requested a bet on Patrick Mahomes being taken pick 15 or earlier, this would include the Cardinals as mentioned above, Skybet have priced him up at 11/2 for that to happen. Personally I’ll be having 2 points on that.

Available RB bets

This looks set to be Leonard Fournette (1/5) despite the hype and rise of Christian McCaffrey (7/1 Skybet) He seems to be the Jaguars choice at #4 and I hope they get him, they’ve got one of the better defences in the league now and need a decent RB to help out their offence. It will add an aspect to their offence that they desperately need as teams aren’t scared of TJ Yeldon or Chris Ivory anymore. A barreling big back like Fournette would mean teams have to respect the run and in theory give Bortles more time to throw looping wobbly passes in the direction of Robinson and Lee. I’m not sure I really agree with Fournette being the top pick, again, personally I prefer McCaffrey who had the best combine he could have imagined, tested better than most WRs in the receiving drills and is a willing runner. He led the league in all purpose yards as well leading the PAC-12 in rushing yards, 4th throughout the whole league. In short he’s a multiple weapon to whichever team picks him up. The Panthers at #8 seems like a possible destination for him that has been touted in many mock drafts. And Skybet are definitely fairly condident of that happening pricing him up at 1/10 to be drafted in the top 10 which is frankly ridiculous. Which does however mean that pick 11 or later at 11/2 is a little tempting. Number of RBs taken is spot on at most bookies as well, Paddy has gone on the fence with over 3 at 5/4 which means a refund if it’s 3 – 3 points. Over places seem to have gone 2.5 with the overs being the favourite at 1/4 and under 2.5 at 11/4 – As mentioned above McCaffrey and Fournette will both go in the top 32. Then you would expect Dalvin Cook going in the first round as well to make it 3 (Although his stock has been plummeting really and personally I think he’s a bigger personality risk than Mixon. If you want think that Joe Mixon can make it into the first round then over 3 is the best to go for there. There’s a slight chance that happens, he’s arguably the best RB in the class, but knocking a girl out 3 years ago means it’s unlikely many teams will want the hassle of taking him in the first (I would however be happy for the Bengals to take him at 41 in the second)

WR related bets

This is an intriguing one for me as I said in the previous draft piece I did, I think that Corey Davis is the best WR around in this draft, he fell a little due to not testing in the combine, but his stock has risen again recently and he released a video of him toasting an old guy at the line of scrimmage and tracking the ball over his shoulder for a one handed catch 50 yards down the field. Betvictor has 7/4 on him being the first WR picked. My main worry with that pick is that the Titans are at #5. They also have the #18 pick and I believe they’ll take at least one WR with those picks and it seems like Mike Williams is the favourite for them. If they don’t then the first WR may well go to the Bengals at #9. I’ve been hearing this week that they supposedly have John Ross as their top guy, and it makes sense to have a take the top off guy to go opposite AJ Green. PP have him priced at 9/1 – Now personally I’m already on Corey Davis at 27/20 on Ladbrokes (now 8/5 so not quite as good as Victor now) If the Bengals go elsewhere then the Bills are a pick later at #10 and Mike Williams seems the most likely to head to them if he makes it past the Titans, he is best priced 4/6 at PP. Now I think Sky are again quite generous with their odds on total no. of WRs taken in the first round. They go o2.5 WRs at 7/4 which given the three names I’ve just mentioned seems a good chance, my one minus on that bet would be John Ross. I’m not 100% sure he’ll make the first round, if he does then you’ll get over 2.5 if not then you lose, so before you lump on have a look at various mocks and check what they believe. Of the 6 Mock drafts on NFL.com 5 of them have those 3 WRs going first round, only MJD didn’t have Ross in there. So I’m convinced enough to go for 2 points on o2.5 WRs at 7/4

Tight end related bets

OJ Howard is the consensus top Tight end on most draft boards, and is priced accordingly. In fact Paddypower have even gone Howard vs the Field with Howard priced at 1/14 on their site and anyone else at 6/1! So safe to say there’s not much value there. A bet that i’d be happy to put a decent amount on though is on Skybet – Total tight ends taken in the first round – o1.5 is set at a crazy 11/2 at the moment! Howard is expected to go top 10 (sky have him priced at 1/3 to be taken top 10) and I am fairly confident of David Njoku going in the first round as well, so there’s your two already with a tiny chance of even Evan Engram possibly sneaking in at the back end of the round. I’ve gone for 5 points on that at 11/2. 

First kicker

This seems like a gimme to be in rounds 4-7 at 4/9 (PP) but I’m not confident enough to put on a decent amount to make it worth a bet. After the Buccs picked up Roberto Aguayo in the second round last year, a move laughed at by most, and that move subesquently failed horribly in his first year I would be shocked to see any team use any of their first 3 round picks on a kicker, add to that the depth of the classes on defence and offence and you’ll likely see the first kicker taken late.

Roundup on recommendations –

  • Over 3 RBs in the first round – 5/4 (Paddypower) – 3 points
  • Over 2.5 WRs in the first round – 7/4 (Skybet) – 2 points
  • Over 1.5 TEs in the first round – 11/2 (Skybet) – 5 points

You’ll be able to see who I think the first 16 picks will be when I put up the spreadsheet with peoples picks for the #NFLDraft competition I’ve set up. I’m happy to say that @Neildutton @GridironGents and @OvertimeIreland have all said they will submit entries, and I’m going to try and get at least one more of the guys and gals from @NFLGirlUK to give it a go as well (Mr. Dutton writes for them as well as Rotoviz). They’re all people I respect the opinion of on twitter and a good read/listen week in, week out.

Hope this helps if you were looking at a bet on the Draft.

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