Review of last years bets

So I got bored recently and decided to see how last years bets went categorically, there isn’t a whole lot of point to this post, I just thought it would be interesting to do a little self-review on what went well and what didn’t over the whole of last season, and to show the transparency I try and operate here. I guess also to try and ensure people FOLLOW THE POINTS SYSTEM!

Now before I go into the results, as on paper they don’t seem that great. It’s worth noting there were quite a few losses which were “ambitious” shall we say… BPTS patents especially, so they were necessarily low stakes, also quite a few 2 or more TD bets on outsiders who if they had would have returned 100/1+ bets. So while they go as losses on the W/L there was a reason for that.

This is why we have a points system. Do NOT just blanket bet every selection at the same odds. Follow the system and you will (should) make money. We made 129 points profit on our weekly bets last year, so more than doubled our starting bank. I’ve been looking at a lot of methods to control your bank. For the sake of making it easy, just assume 1 point is 1% of your bank to start and you can’t go too far wrong. Although I may have to edit that as there were a number of times last season I risked too much bank (around 30 points off the top of my head) in one week leaving the system open to failure if it went wrong several times in a row, which fortunately it did not. I was new to this whole thing, so learning as I went along! It’s something I’ll be looking into for next year. It is however quite tough with the NFL as the Sunday night is when you have generally 14 games, with 1 Monday and 1 Thursday, so obviously there will be a lot of points staked when there’s so many more markets available.

The average points staked over the season on a single bet was 2.44, with the highest being 10 points on some shorter odds shots, of the 4 bets I had at 10 points stakes, 3 won, 1/2, 1/2 and 8/15 and 1 lost at 4/6. So profit was made on the higher odds punts.

On to the results…

I lined up 15 Categories – Individual stats based, Anytime TD, Anytime Multiples, 2 or more TDs, 2 or more Multiples, Handicaps, Handicap Multiples, Totals, Total Multiples, Score every qtr, D/ST TDs, Request a bets, Both players to score and Others (which included Tribets and Winning margin bets) and went through the 451 bets we placed last year… I was very bored.

The most successful bets didn’t come as too much of a surprise as they were in general the 50/50 bets. Individual stat bets (rushing yards, passing yards etc…) are generally set at 5/6 or 10/11 and we ended up 58/42% on these. That’s about right, and may have left us slightly in profit over the season, but by a miniscule amount. Same as the following… 

Bets on Handicaps and Total points came in at around that line as well, both hitting 56% of the time, again they’re usually at 10/11 so pretty much bang on really. 

Score every quarter was at 7/13, so 54%, and they were set at around 13/8, 7/4 in general so obviously a nice profit on that kind of bet, and it was something I was logging as the season went on (as well as which teams generally concede in every qtr), and will probably continue to do next season (Although did give up after 10 weeks or so as it’s quite time consuming!). A few teams had high percentages of scoring in every qtr, while a few were shocking. It’s something I will do every week next season as I think it could prove a good guide to picking winners on this category. I may have to speak to my Maths guru to help me find an easier way of doing it rather than me typing them in manually and matching up future games every week!

The most bets placed were on anytime TD scorers. Generally I wasn’t going to much below evens, the biggest I think we had on a single anytime TD scorer was 7/1 on Hunter Henry which landed with ease (annoyingly I think he scored 2 that night which would have been 100/1+) But we had 56 winners from 160 on that. It was profit on the season, and a lot of them were larger outside bets so that bumped up the losers on that market. Going forward to next season I think i’ll keep it more of the same and shy away from the usual 4/6 favourites and keep listening and reading up to try and find the other guys who I think are likely to score. It became a nice little earner using this system last year.

Now the bigger odds selections, if one or two of these hit in a season, then they pretty much even out the losses… and we did have a few hit. We had 4/22 2 or more TD bets land last year, off the top of my head, I know for sure that one of those was Deon Lewis at 55/1 it’s safe to say we were comfortably in profit that weekend! Odell Beckham was one at 13/2, Martellus Bennett at 18/1 and David Johnson at 19/4. So while the win percentage wasn’t anywhere near as high as I would like, it’s not easy to hit those big priced winners!

Annoyingly both players to score bets were a big loser on the year, they were ones I was quietly confident in when I started doing this blog, having landed a Trixie on them the year before at 40/1 or so. But this season it just didn’t happen. I’m not going to lie, they’re not easy. Especially the Trixie as you need 6 individual guys all to get a TD in 3 games. That’s really not an easy feat, but only getting 4 out of 51 is pretty damn awful. The winners were 3/1, 3/1, 15/8 and 3/1 so I can’t even claim any big wins there. 2 choices on those for next year. Knock them on the head, or lower the amount I do of them. We’ll see how it goes next year.

In conclusion. Anytime TDs went well. BPTS did not.

 

Adam.

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