SNF – Week 1 – Game previews

First up, thanks for following and reading, I can’t guarantee it, but I’m pretty sure I put more effort into this than 99% of all the other NFL tipsters on twitter, without an affiliate link or a betting site retweet in sight. – I was approached by Colossus bet to be the captain of an NFL megabet on there, I would have got my stake for free basically, but I don’t think they’re a very good way of making money, and betting on winning margins is very difficult, so I politely declined. If I don’t think it’s a good idea, I won’t do it, despite the fact it would have been risk free for me. – That is not to say I begrudge the people who do that, it just wasn’t for me.

The televised tips write up alone takes a good few hours, not to mention the time I spend checking sites for their player props, which this weekend have been shockingly slow to appear, it’s incredibly frustrating! Anyway, on to the games!

I’ll be doing shorter briefs on the games that aren’t televised over here in the UK with any selections that jump out at me. – Click here for Televised game write up and tips

Cardinals @ Lions – The Lions have the highest paid QB in football after Matthew (not Matty) Stafford signed a $30m a year deal, but on the field they have been hit with injuries and are waiting on the fitness of a few more for this game. I love the look of Ameer Abdullah and hope he stays fit this season – Last season they won 7 games from behind in the 4th quarter, that’s not sustainable. For the Cards it’s all about David Johnson, they’ve essentially said they’ll run him into the ground this season (literally) He’ll score at least one TD in this game. Winner – Cardinals

Falcons @ Bears – The Bears have a cracking interior offensive line which should open up gaps for their only real weapon, Jordan Howard. They were looking ok in the passing game but their de facto number 1 Cameron Meredith blew out his knee in a horrible looking incident last week and misses the season leaving, Kendall Wright the main guy?! Either way it stinks for them. The Falcons lost their offensive co-ordinator, Shanahan went to the niners, so I don’t think they’ll be as free scoring as last season, the superbowl hangover as well is a real thing especially after the nature of their loss – Tevin Coleman is the man they tended to use on the road, he and Devonta Freeman form a formidable partnership, but Freeman only scored once (from his 11 TDs for the season) on the road last year, Coleman scored 6 of his 8 TDs last year away from home. They’re far too good for the Bears here – Falcons

  • Tevin Coleman anytime – 7/4 – 2pt
  • Coleman o34.5 rushing yards – 10/11 – 1pt (both Skybet)

Ravens @ Bengals – The Bengals could be anything this season, it all depends on coping with their dodgy offensive line. They’ve looked good in spells in pre-season, Jeremy Hill seems to have taken the competition well and stepped up his game to try and keep the job form Joe Mixon, which for now he seems to have done. They face a Ravens team with no weapons on offence at all, I am really down on that side of the ball for them, but they have one of the best defences on paper, who should give them good field position more often than not so might not need a great offence. I expect Justin Tucker to kick around 5 field goals a game this season for them, and they won’t score a huge amount more points than that. – Homer pick – The Bengals (but i’m not confident on it)

  • Ravens team field goals – o1.5 – 5/6 – 1pt o2.5 – 11/4 – 2pts (both 365)

Jags @ Texans – Safe to say it’s been a few weeks for the Texans because of hurricane Harvey. They had to postpone their final pre-season game so the players could get home to their families and this game will be an emotional one for them, much like the Ravens they don’t have a huge amount on offence, Tom Savage is starting for them so it’s arguably an upgrade on Brock last season but not great, they do however boast a fantastic defence and play against a dodgy looking Jags offense possibly without #4 overall draft pick Leonard Fournette. The Jags on paper, have a fantastic looking defense as well, this won’t be high scoring! – Houston Texans (would not take ATS)

Jets @ Bills – Wow. What is there to say here?! McCoy and Taylor remain at the Bills who will be a heavy run first offence. Shady is the entire team at the moment, although Jordan Matthews and Zay Jones are both average in the slot from the little we’ve seen of the rookie, having said that, Mike Gillislee vultured 8 TDs from Shady last year when they got to the 10zone, Mike Tolbert seems like he’ll be the vulture this year, cracking price on him over at Paddypower. The Jets start McCown for the season, he’s adequate which is more than can be said about Hackenberg who was their only other choice with Petty injured. They’ve ditched everyone with more than 2 days experience other than McCown who brings the average age of the rookie filled squad to roughly 47 by himself. They actually have a good looking defence on paper as well. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Robbie Anderson score a 4th quarter consolation TD for the Jets – Bills

  • Mike Tolbert anytime TD – 13/2 (PP) – 1pt

Raiders @ Titans – Two of the hype teams from the off-season, I’ll admit I’m in on the Titans this year, they’ve added pass catchers for Mariota, especially redzone targets with Decker and Davis when he gets fit. Mariota is yet to throw a redzone interception in his NFL career. Give him those guys behind a top 5 offensive line with a good 1-2 running game and they’ve got the basics of a very good team, defensively they’re not that great. Almost identical to their opponents, the Raiders look great on offence, a top 5 OL, a good RB corps if Lynch can look like we think he can. Their Wrs are great too, Amari Cooper between the 20s and Crabtree when it gets to the money zone, again they can’t defend, especially not against tight ends. Delanie Walker anytime TD in a high scoring game. Money is coming for the Titans, they were originally underdogs, now 3 point faves, I was also looking for D/ST TD in this game, but the odds are too short on it, both teams have brilliant returners and should be good to watch! – Titans

  • Michael Crabtree anytime – 7/4 (365) – 2pts

Eagles @ Redskins – The Redskins have not looked great in the off-season after a lot of turmoil higher up in the organisation to start off their summer. I like Cousins as a QB and I like their Wrs on paper, but they have to actually catch the ball which proved a real struggle against the Bengals in week 3 preseason. Pryor should be a 1,000 yd receiver in this team. Reed is off the PUP list and should be good to go, and Crowder is a good pass catcher as well. Bookies are taking a heck of a lot of money on the Eagles to beat their season win totals, I can see why, they have improved all over, Wentz wasn’t bad last year just didn’t have pass catchers who could actually catch the ball. They’ve brought in Alshon Jeffrey to help there, and Legarrette Blount to be their goal line smasher after his 18 TD season at the Pats. I’m not buying the Eagles love although they’ll do ok, it’s a very tough division – Again the money has come in on the Eagles, they were underdogs a few weeks back, now starting as favourites – Redskins for the “upset”

  • Terrelle Pryor u84.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 1pt

Colts @ Rams – The Rams almost look like a functioning team now that Sean McVay has taken over from Jeff ‘7-9’ Fisher. They may actually have some kind of offensive ambition, something that has been drastically improved over the summer with the drafting of Cooper Kupp and Gerald Everett at WR and TE respectively, and the signing of Sammy Watkins and one of the leagues best Left Tackles to help give Jared Goff some more time to find his guys. Kupp has proven a favourite target in pre-season matches, so it would be no surprise to see him heavily targetted here. The Colts have the potential to be a stinking mess. It seems likely that they’ll have no Luck… I couldn’t resist. For this first game as he’s not thrown a ball since shoulder surgery in January. Without him they’re left to rely on Scott Tolzien who really isn’t very good. They lost their best offensive line guy too from an already below average line, and their best CB is injured as well. On the plus side for them Frank Gore is there, and the leagues leading pass catcher from last year TY Hilton is fit too, but without a decent QB throwing the ball it could prove a struggle. – Rams 

  • Cooper Kupp o35.5 rec. yards (skybet) – 3 pts (was 24.5 this morning. Frustrating) 

Panthers @ Niners – Could Rueben Foster by the niners version of Luke Kuechly? It’s obviously too early to tell, but he has looked awesome in pre-season! San Fran are another of the teams with a new head coach, last years Superbowl losing offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan takes over and I think he’ll sort this offense out. Carlos Hyde has looked great so far, and Brian Hoyer really isn’t that bad a QB! They could have done worse. He likes to lock onto a player and target them, so Pierre Garcon should get a lot of the ball, they have a burner in Marquise Wilson and one of the best full backs in the league too in Kyle Juszczyk. Rookie TE George Kittle is one to keep an eye on this season as they released the more experienced Vance McDonald. The Panthers are looking for a change of style. Cam Newton can’t keep running the ball and taking concussions like he stupidly did when showboating last season, so they drafted the super-explosive Christian McCaffrey, my favourite rookie to watch, he can run between the tackles, but he really does well outside by catching a short pass and taking it the length of the field, he’s ridiculously quick and his movement is beautiful to watch! If Cam can learn how to throw a checkdown pass then he should eat this season. Kelvin Benjamin is the #1 WR here and had a good pre-season, while Greg Olsen will probably get his usual 1,000 yard season. – Panthers (wouldn’t go for them beating the spread though)

  • Christian McCaffrey – o57.5 combined yards (rush and receiving) – 5/6 (Paddypower) – 4pts Nap

 

 


 Summary

  • Tevin Coleman anytime – 7/4 (skybet)- 2pt
  • Coleman o34.5 rushing yards – 10/11 (skybet) – 1pt
  • Ravens team field goals – o1.5 – 5/6 – 1pt o2.5 – 11/4 – 2pts (both 365)
  • Mike Tolbert anytime – 13/2 (PP) – 1pt
  • Michael Crabtree anytime – 7/4 (365) – 2pts
  • Terrelle Pryor u84.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 1pt
  • Cooper Kupp o35.5 rec. yards (skybet) – 3pts – Nb
  • Christian McCaffrey – o57.5 combined yards (rush and receiving) – 5/6 (Paddypower) – 4pts – NAP

17 points staked.

 

Good luck everyone, hope it all goes well!

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