MNF – Double header – Saints at Vikings, Chargers at Broncos

Quick recap of the weekends bets, a mixed bag, but profit provided if you followed all of them, the Saturday treble which everyone in the world should have been able to get on landed at around 6/1 (6.95) a great start to that idea! – Mike Tolbert got his TD at 13/2 which I’m rather chuffed about, I called that one perfectly. Then the rookies came through for me, McCaffrey going for 85 total yards, comfortably over the 57.5 line that Paddypower put up, and Cooper Kupp going well over his 34.5 (or 24.5) line finishing with 76 points. They were the 2 bets I went for slightly higher stakes on, and it paid off, it’s frustrating that we couldn’t put them in a double as I usually try to do that for NAP and NB, but alas, it is what it is. Terrelle Pryor also did us proud by only getting 66 yards, nearly 20 odd under the line of 84.5, got to admit he got more than I thought he would have done! And If you’ve been following for a week you should have got on the Colts v Rams game! We lost on the unders as the Rams went crazy, but won easily on the Rams +3 handicap that was out, also under 24.5 Colts points at Betbright was an absolute steal as Scott Tolzein turned out to be as bad as I knew he was.

– And then the bad, Coleman failed us, the history was there but he didn’t perform frankly, saying that the Falcons as a whole didn’t perform and could have easily lost that game. Seattle definitely didn’t turn up and couldn’t get it going on offense at all, it could have been so different if the Pick 6 within the first few minutes wasn’t reversed for an off the ball incident! Carlos Hyde got to 45 yards in the first half, then didn’t get a carry in the second frustratingly 5 yards short of the 49.5 he was set at by Skybet. The Giants were woeful as well, scuppering anything I had on them there, fortunately they can still defend so kept the points down for a win there.

17 tips – 7 winners – 6/1, 13/2, 5/6, 10/11, 10/11, 10/11, 5/6

8.38 points profit on the year after 2 days of games. Viewable here – https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d4Vhh-0_Wi5Vsb4qtFaiPPIRivfgGRGMaDTuLng_pIA/edit?usp=sharing


On to Monday night football double header!!!

Saints (+3) at Vikings (-3) 0010

NFL: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

The first of tonight’s double header is a really hard one to call. The Vikings are looking to become the first team to play a Superbowl in their home stadium, they played well at the U.S. Bank Stadium last season winning the first 3 games they played there before the injuries that derailed their season hit and they stumbled a little to end 5-3 there. The Saints conversely are not good on the road, winning just 3 of their 8 games away.

Last season Sam Bradford was signed with a week left in training camp and had to pick up the play book very quickly, given that, he had a very good season, he set the completion percentage record completing 71.6% of his throws! Most of them were short passes, but still that’s a pretty impressive record. With a full off-season behind him he should expand his game this season and he’s got some pretty good targets to aim at.

Stefon Diggs was a breakout candidate on a lot of fantasy analyst lists over the summer and he has all the talent and ability to have a great season, he just needs to try and stay healthy, in fairness, he only missed 3 games last year and got 907 yards in the 13 he did play in, he’s got good speed and has good hands, he was played generally in the slot last year, but could be moved outside for this year with the newly paid Adam Thielen lining up in the slot more often than not, Thielen got a nice contract after playing all 16 games last year and falling just short of 1,000 yards. This should mean an increase in targets for Thielen but possibly a decrease in yards for him if he’s used more as a possession guy. They’re the 2 main guys, but they also have last seasons first round draft pick Laquon Treadwell who again has the physical attributes to be a top WR in this league but something wasn’t right with him last year as he made 1 catch in the entire season! He played more in the pre-season at least so they’ll be hoping he can help out this year, there’s also Michael Floyd who they signed from the Patriots, again, he’s a talented kid and needs to sort his head out, if he manages that he’ll do ok there. At Tight End they have Kyle Rudolph who was the no.1 TE in fantasy last season with an impressive 83 catches, for over 800 yards and 7 TDs, quite obviously a favourite of Bradfords he got 5 or more receptions in 10 of his 16 games last year.

At running back it seems they’ll be starting with rookie Dalvin Cook as the main man, with big money free agent Latavius Murray out injured he had a cracking pre-season. He was a very good RB coming out of Florida last season where he put up good numbers averaging over 5 yards per carry playing behind a dodgy offensive line, that should be good experience for this Minnesota team who don’t have the best protection up front! He can catch the ball well from the backfield too so there’s no reason for him to be taken off the field. Murray though will probably be used in goal line situations, he scored 12 TDs for the Raiders last year, mostly from within the 10 yard line so it would be no shock to see the Vikings use a similar tactic.

The Saints are historically quite difficult to predict on the road, but this is in a dome which will help Drew Brees. He regularly leads the league in passing yards and whilst they have strengthend their running back group, I think he’ll still throw the ball enough to be up there again this season.

They did lose Brandin Cooks over the summer, but he wasn’t Brees’ favourite target last year, that went to Michael Thomas who caught 92 passes for 1,137 yards in his first season and proved himself to be reliable, I think he’ll be able to be around those numbers again despite defences and coaches now having a full season of tape to watch on him, the loss of Cooks should mean he keeps those numbers steady, he was always going to be the number 1 target in the attack, but the suspension of Willie Snead for the first 3 games of the season means that will be accentuated. Ted Ginn Jnr. will likely be the no.2 in this first game, he’s a big play guy with questionable handling, but at least once a game he gets a big catch down the field and can turn a game on it’s head, he looked good with Brees in pre-season. With Snead out it opens the door for (probably) Brandon Coleman, who is a guy (?) He scored in pre-season…they also signed Austin Carr after he was waived by the Partiots, he sparked in pre-season but i’m not sure he’ll be playing tonight, he’s actually a standout 16/1 on Skybet whilst around 5s everywhere else. Coby Fleener could be the main beneficiary now that Snead and Cooks are missing, he didn’t do too well last year, but the Saints offence is apparently difficult for TEs to pick up and having a full season under his belt should help him.

Where do we start at running back? Well Mark Ingram is really good, but they don’t seem to like him! They signed Adrian Peterson in free agency and then moved up a few spots in the draft to make sure they got Alvin Kamara. Ingram got over 1,000 yards last year at 5.1 per carry, the highest average of his career, but they still tried to take him out of games when he was seemingly their best option. The addition of the legendary Adrian Peterson will take a fair bit of workload away from him, I’d expect them to share the load 40/40 with Alvin Kamara mixing in for the other 20%. If that means around 10 carries a piece, then AP should be able to hit the target line of 35. They are capable of supporting multiple backs, and boast one of the best run blocking offensive lines in the league, but it sure makes my life a lot more difficult. Kamara is tempting at the odds (11/2) but I’m just not sure how much play he’ll be getting, I wouldn’t begrudge you backing him at tidy odds if you chose to, but i’m not sure enough to tip it officially.

  • Adrian Peterson o34.5 rush yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2pts *double*
  • Coby Fleener anytime – 9/4 (365) – 2pts 
  • Drew Brees longest completion – o40.5 yards – 4/5 (365) – 1pt

Chargers (+3) at Broncos (-3) 0320

afc-west

This one is as tough as the first of the night to call as the Chargers travel up to mile high. The Broncos have had a weird off season, they opened up a quarterback competition when they had the right guy in place all along, Trevor Siemian is just better than Paxton Lynch is and it wasn’t even close in the end, he might not throw down the field as much as Lynch, but his accuracy was far better over the summer. He is by no means the answer to them getting to another Superbowl, but he’s adequate for a team with a great defence.

The new coaching staff was exciting Demaryius Thomas in the pre-season with him telling people how he got HIS play back and was looking forward to having a productive season, he’s already carrying a groin strain though which will hamper him for the first few weeks at least. He and the guy opposite him in the pass catching group, Emmanuel Sanders had pretty much identical numbers last season, with 1,083 and 1,032 yards respectively, although DT is the probable number 1 in the ranks, I think Sanders has more upside and chance of scoring on a weekly basis. There’s not much to mention with their tight ends, they don’t really use them, it seems like AJ Darby is the main guy there, but he’s not really worth going into any detail about.

Running back is an interesting area for the Broncos, CJ Anderson is the main man there, but he is frequently injured only managing 7 games last season, he did get 4 TDs in those games though, and I think he’s a pretty good running back personally. If he can’t do it then Jamaal Charles who averages 5 yards per carry over his entire career! is a more than adequate replacement after seemingly proving his health in the preseason. He impressed me with how good he looked tbh as I thought the injuries he has had were going to severely hamper him. Whoever is in the backfield faces a struggle behind an OL that they have tried to improve but is still not a very good unit.

The defence is the strength of the Broncos, they boast the best Corner back group in the league as well as some premier pass rush. Strangely enough this will be one of the few times all season that Von Miller isn’t going to be the best defensive player on the field (more on that later)

The Chargers went into preseason after drafting offensive line players in the draft to add to their pretty loaded roster! But moving to LA didn’t leave their injury curse behind as their no.7 overall pick, wide reciever Mike Williams, and their first offensive line pick, Forrest Lamp both reported injuries, Williams missing all of camp, although apparently active tonight, and Lamp now missing the season with a knee injury.

Philip Rivers is good at two things, making babies, and slinging the rock. I tipped him up as the EW bet in total passing yards for the season, and was feeling pretty confident with it with an improved Offensive line and targets for him to hit. It now remains to be seen how well he will be able to do if the guys in front of him are as leaky as they were last season when he threw a crazy amount of interceptions while chasing games.

Williams was a great addition to the pass catching corps and it will be interesting to see how he does when he makes it back into uniform for the team, he’s a big guy with a huge wingspan, perfect for Rivers’ downfield bombs. Keenan Allen is (we think) a brilliant receiver, but he’s perennially injured, fortunately none of the injuries seem to have been related they’ve just been bad luck and he’s looked really good in pre-season so I’ve got high hopes for him this season. If he can stay fit then he’ll put up good numbers and help this loaded team immensely. They don’t lack depth here with Tyrell Williams going for 1,000 yards last season in place of Allen when he went out, Travis Benjamin and Dontrelle Inman adding to the downfield threats on the team. All in all it’s a frightening prospect if Rivers has any kind of accuracy. As if the WRs weren’t enough for them, they’ve got the best tight end tandem in the league, Antonio Gates needs 1 more TD to be the highest scoring TE in the history of the game and last years star rookie Hunter Henry will be looking to kick on this year, they score 15 times between them last season and I see no reason why they won’t get near to that this year as well. Possibly because they’re so good at defending WRs, Tight ends generally do well against the Broncos.

In the run game they have Melvin Gordon who ran in precisely zero touchdowns in his rookie year, but carried the load last year and bagged himself 12 scores on the season falling agonisingly short of 1,000 yards on the ground while providing good support when catching from the backfield. I think he’s more the 12 TD guy than the 0 and if they can get the pass game going again like they should be able to then he should have even more chance to get some yardage, the Broncos run defence was one of the poorest in the league last year so Gordon should get a lot of action.

As I alluded to above, Von Miller probably isn’t the best defensive player on the pitch, and definitely isn’t the best pass rusher there in my opinion, that title goes to Joey Bosa, I love watching him play, he’s very impressive and part of a brilliant pass rush duo with Melvin Ingram.

  • Keenan Allen o44.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2pts *double*
  • Total Sacks – o4.5 – 10/11 (365) – 2pts
  • Antonio Gates anytime – 9/4 (365) – 1pt
  • Hunter Henry anytime – 4/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral) – 1pt

Summary

  • Adrian Peterson o34.5 rush yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2pts *double*
  • Coby Fleener anytime – 9/4 (365) – 2pts 
  • Drew Brees longest completion – o40.5 yards – 4/5 (365) – 1pt
  • Keenan Allen o44.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2pts *double*
  • Total Sacks – o4.5 – 10/11 (365) – 2pts
  • Antonio Gates anytime – 9/4 (365) – 1pt
  • Hunter Henry anytime – 4/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral) – 1pt
  • Double on Peterson and Allen yard bets – 3/1ish (Skybet) – 2pts

Total outlay – 13 points.

Year to date – 8.38pt profit.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑