New England Patriots (-6) @ New Orleans Saints (+6) (o/u 57)
This really is an interesting week of games! Both of these teams lost last week, the Saints away at Minnesota and the Patriots in the opener against the Chiefs. The Saints result wasn’t anywhere near as shocking as the Pats, they are notoriously dodgy on the road but they would have been disappointed by the lack of defence from their side after a promising pre-season. Drew Brees actually has a winning record against Brady, historically leading the series 3-1. He may well struggle to make it 4 and 1 but he’s got more chance here than he would have had if it was in Foxborough.
In the passing game he was remarkably even last week with Fleener, Ingram, Ginn and Lewis getting 54,54,53 and 52 yards respectively during the opener. The one surprise to me is that Michael Thomas got a little less, with 45 yards. I still believe he’ll be the main man in the attack for most of this season, but as you can see they like to spread the ball around. Ginn and Lewis are pacy and will be used down the field more often than not, I think Ginn is the man this week, available at 2/1 anytime, we saw what the pace of Tyreek Hill did to this backfield and Ginn is a less talented version of him. Alvin Kamara is of interest in the pass and the rushing game. The Saints traded up in the draft to add him to the backfield and he’s a decent price to get a TD tonight. Coby Fleener got the garbage time score that we needed last week for a 9/4 winner on the blog, and I can see him getting some action again whether it’s yards or receptions i’m not sure!
The run game is… complicated. Adrian Peterson was the big free agency signing for them over the summer, and he obviously expected to be a big part of the attack. BUT that’s not how the Saints work, they frequently run multiple RBs, he got just 6 carries last week for not a whole lot of yards then was filmed shouting at Sean Payton the head coach. Ingram also had 6 and Kamara 7. It seems like they’ll use him to run the clock down if they get a good lead in a game.
The Patroits were humbled by the Chiefs last week, but have had 4 days more than the Saints who played on Monday, to prepare for this matchup and they boast some crazy stats coming off a loss, they don’t really lose 2 in a row!
Brady had the lowest completion percentage of week 1, somehow even lower than Andy Dalton got! That won’t happen again, especially not against the Saints. Danny Amendola was destined to be the replacement for Edelman, but he’s made of glass and is out of this game, so I think it will be Hogan in the slot with Cooks on the outside of him, and possibly Philip Dorsett making an unlikely start for them. Hogan is the one who interests me the most here, last week Thielen got 157 from the slot against the Saints so I see no reason why he won’t feast here but he’s now a poor 5/4 to score at anytime, he should but I can’t be taking that price. Cooks knows this team inside out having come from them in free agency and he’ll want to show them what they’ve lost. Rob Gronkowski was pretty irrelevant in the opener after he couldn’t fully haul in an early pass that would have put them 14-0 up. It’s not often you don’t hear from him 2 games in a row, and in a game against the Saints you’ll probably see him cross the goal line at some point.
It will be interesting to see how they use their running backs this week, last week, James White seemed to get a lot of the ball, he’s a stand out 9/4 at Unibet, i’ll be hoping for a decent line on combined yards for him (Line is 50.5 on 365, which is very good). Lewis, Burkhead and White shared most of the middle of the field whilst Mike Gillislee was quite obviously the goal line back, getting himself 3 TDs, and putting him on course for 48 TDs on the season! Yeah, we’ll see. He’ll more than likely get in from the 1 yard line again, he’s very difficult to stop with how low he gets when making contact, 10/11 on WillHill seems to be the best you’ll get for him.
I have predicted quite a few scorers in this one, but the O/U is set at 57 and it’s still rising, so Vegas are expecting a shoot out! – If you fancy a few of them, Skybet have got the Both players to score markets back up this weekend, my choice for this game is Hogan and Ginn at 11/2 – This is not an official recommendation as I was not good on BPTS last season! But just wanted you to know what I’m on here.
Ted Ginn anytime – 19/10 (Unibet, 15/8 PP) – 2pts, Chris Hogan o55.5 rec. yard – 5/6 (PP) – 2pts, Coby Fleener o30.5 rec. yards – 17/20 (BetVictor) – 2pts
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) @ Denver Broncos (+2.5) (o/u 42)
I get a little bored writing about Denver, they just don’t have an awful lot that excites me, I mean from a purists point of view, they’re great, the way they close down opposing offenses is very impressive, but I’ll be the first to admit I want to see scores!
They had a needless QB battle over the summer with incumbent Trevor Siemian and 1st round draft pick from the year before Paxton Lynch. It wasn’t much of a battle, despite a year with the team Lynch was still poor, so Siemian kept the job. The right decision to make, he’s an adequate QB and that’s all they really need. He had a good opening game last week against a solid Chargers team, throwing to Bennie Fowler for 2 TDs and rushing one in, neatly avoiding Joey Bosa along the way.
He has two above average WRs to aim for, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, Thomas got the yards in this game, 67 from 5 receptions. But the endzone looks, as hinted at above for some reason went to Bennie Fowler. You can’t imagine that carrying on, but well, you never know! They have a 3 headed Tight End group, AJ Derby was the main man last week for receptions, but Virgil Green got a big gain from his one catch and Heuerman was also involved as well, so they like to chuck the ball around. – If Dallas have a weakness then it’s their secondary, so you can probably expect Denver to attack that area of the game.
CJ Anderson was the main back as expected, and he looked good going at o4 yards per carry, Jamaal Charles had half the the carries and also hit 4 ypc. I’d expect it to be similar this game as well. Which has actually led me to a possible bet, Jamaal Charles has quite a low rushing line, set at 27.5 on Paddypower.
The Cowboys were efficient in winning last week, much like the whole of last season, they controlled the game against the Giants, limited them to very little and gave Zeke his 100 yards as usual.
Dak Prescott proved himself last year as a good QB and while i’m not going to call him one of the best in the league as so many others seem to do, I do appreciate he’s a very capable leader behind center. He’s also very mobile and good on his feet so o18.5 rushing yards on PP is a good line, he ran for 24 last week and I would expect him to be struggling to find his targets against this Broncos secondary so in theory more likeliness of him running with it. In theory.
He boasts everybodies favourite guy Dez Bryant at WR, I just don’t feel the love for him as so many others do around the game. He’s good, I get that, but doesn’t really do anything for me, he also (unsurprisingly) struggles to get the numbers against the best CBs in the game, and this match is against 3 of them. His line is set to 68.5 in places, I’d lean under on that. Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams offer good support alongside him though and as always Jason Witten will rumble his way slowly towards the end zone as old Mr. Reliable for Dak to aim for. He should have a decent game.
Ezekiel Elliott is a lucky boy to still be playing after successfully appealing his suspension, well, sort of anyway, he’s delaying it, probably the entire season and he’s the most important part of this whole team, he’s a fantastic runner and last week got 104 yards from 24 carries, slightly over 5 ypc. It’s what he does. If Denver had a weakness last season it was their run defence, it looked improved in the one game we’ve seen this season, but Zeke is just too good, I expect close to 25 carries for him as they do what they do and run the ball to keep possession and use the clock. The opposition can’t score if they don’t have the ball.
My one bet for this game will be Dak Prescott rush yards – o18.5 (PP) – 2pts… This is 15.5 on 365 far better!
Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons (-3) (o/u 54.5)
Ok, I can get a bit more excited about the prospect of this match! A re-match of the NFC Championship game from last season which saw the Falcons destroy their opponents on their way to that devastating Superbowl loss to the Patriots.
This will be the first professional game played at the Mercedes Benz Stadium and what a way to officially open it! The Falcons will be looking to mark the event with a win and put down a marker in the race for the SBLII in February next year.
They struggled a little at Soldier Field in Chicago last week against a much improved Bears team, but Matt Ryan still put up 321 yards and posted a solid QBR. He proved last year in his MVP season that he’s a very good passer and he’s got some brilliant weapons to help him out.
Julio Jones is the best receiver in the league, I think I wrote around this time last year that I didn’t really get the hype behind him? Well consider me converted, if you could design a human to play WR it would look like him, he’s strong, tall and pacy and can turn the game on one play. He had a “poor” week last week and still caught 4 for 66 yards. He has some crazy stats coming off a “down game” where he goes for o100 or a TD in every following week. So that’s what I’m expecting to happen this week. Unfortunately so are the bookies and all the yardage lines I’ve found are floating around that 100 mark so it’s a no bet for me and last season he didn’t get the redzone looks for me to feel confident backing him at evens for a TD either. Alongside him Mo Sanu should look better after a full year in the team, and when Julio gets the coverage he does a good job of getting himself free and helping move the chains. Taylor Gabriel adds the pace in this area, they used him sparingly last year in weird ways, so it’s hard to predict what he’s going to do on a weekly basis, if it’s a good week it could be 100 yards and 2 TDs, but he’s not a betting prospect. Austin Hooper is their play making tight end and he did me proud in the Superbowl last year catching a TD, he also broke off a slow motion 88 yard touchdown after some busted coverage last week against the Bears, stiff arming a defender to the dirt while lumbering his way in. He is definitely capable of similar, less than 3/1 is also a no bet for me unfortunately here.
Their running backs are probably the best pairing in the league, both capable of running the ball and catching it from the backfield. I said last week that Tevin Coleman usually gets the plays away from home and Freeman gets them when they’re back in Atlanta, well, last week Freeman got 39 yards combined, while Coleman was on 58, so I was right, but unfortunately for us, Freeman get the TD run. This week it should be a freeman week with a little Coleman adding in a little mustard in the passing game. They’re both elusive and great to watch. I would imagine that Freeman will score this week, but again, at under evens it’s not a bet for me.
The Green Bay Packers started the season with a hard fought win over the Seattle Seahawks last week, they are a very good defence so it shouldn’t have been such a shock to see them score so few points. This week will be different though.
Aaron Rodgers is the best in the league, the way he scramble before dropping 50 yard passes on a dime is a thing to behold, and behind a solid Offensive line who generally keep him protecting even when he leaves the pocket he can make plays that no other QB in the league can make. Despite a poor week last week he finished with over 300 yards on the day.
His favourite target, as always was Jordy Nelson who got himself 79 yards, and the lone passing TD. He’s great and has a very good link with Rodgers when he’s scrambling, he always seems to get himself free so is generally the go-to guy in the end zone. Outside of him, I am expecting to see Randall Cobb have a good year and it started well last week with him being the leading receiver with 85 yards from 9 catches, he’s a capable guy and if the main corner goes towards Nelson then he should get more views. If they don’t go to him then they’ll go to Devante Adams who scored a high percentage of TDs to Catches last season that would be very difficult to replicate, but Rodgers is capable of making anyone relevant, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get in this week. Apparently Geronimo Allison is back in the frame this week as well, he’s the 4th WR, but has been suspended so I’ll be interested to see if he gets any action, he’s had a bit of hype over the summer and he’s on my bench in a dynasty league so I’ll be looking out for him! They added Martellus Bennett at tight end over the summer and he’s a very good player who adds another big body in the red zone as well as being athletic enough to be relevant in other parts of the field.
The running back position was a story over the summer, but that seems to have been quickly put to bed by Ty Montgomery. He played the most snaps of any RB last week and was the highest ranked in pass protection which was apparently the main area for concern over the summer. He’s a converted WR so obviously good at catching the ball out of the backfield and that’s an area that the Falcons generally struggle in. He was nearing 100 yards last weekend and got the rushing touchdown in that game. Once again though the bookies are on this and his combined yards at over 80 is a touch too high for my blood. Frustrating. I would lean over 81.5 combined, but it’s just not a bet in my eyes.
This should be a great high scoring game for the neutral to watch, I can’t call which way it will go, but points points points! Please!
Julio Jones longest pass received – o27.5 – 5/6 (365) – 2pts, Julio and Jordy both to score – 9/2 (Skybet priceboost) – 2pts
After least season I didn’t really want to post any BPTS (both players to score) bets, but this price is too good to pass up on.
- Ted Ginn anytime – 19/10 (Unibet, 15/8 PP) – 2pts
- Chris Hogan o55.5 rec. yard – 5/6 (PP) – 2pts
- Coby Fleener o30.5 rec. yards – 17/20 (BetVictor) – 2pts
- Dak Prescott rush yards – o18.5 (PP) – 2pts (o15. 5 on 365. Take that!)
- Julio Jones longest pass received – o27.5 – 5/6 (365) – 2pts
- Julio and Jordy both to score – 9/2 (Skybet priceboost) – 2pts
12 points outlay – 30 on the week.
Good Luck, enjoy and lets make some money – Adam.