So here we are at the end of an entertaining, but ultimately fruitless weekend betting. It could have been so different if a few things had gone our way. Larry Fitzgerald was targeted in the end zone early on but couldn’t out fight his corner back to haul in the ball which would have started us off really well, and landed a tidy profit for us. I had quite a few to choose from in the Patriots game and went for Ted Ginn who was very close to bringing in a TD pass but the DB got his hand in there and messed it up, I’ve been pretty keen on Ginn’s chances for this year with Brees, but I’ll lay off that for a few weeks now until there’s proof that he’s going to be anything in that offense. The early games were all a bit of a mess for us actually, I thought Cameron Brate would have been targeted in the end zone for the Buccs, but he hardly saw the ball come his way at all, 2 catches for 24 yards was less than I was expecting. 3/1 was a good price on him though as you could only get a best of 9/4 before kick off. Jared Cook was the other 3/1 tight end that we went for, always back your tight end against the Jets. He caught one at the back of the end zone but couldn’t get his feet down. So close, yet so far.
Marshawn Lynch did bring him the NAP though, thankfully! I was happy to go a little bigger on him if I could find anywhere offering above Evens and 11/10 was good enough for me on him. The TD bets might have eluded us for the weekend, but we did well on the yardage bets; Ertz, Hogan, Dak, Julio all easily beating the lines that were set on them, meaning that we went 4/5 on those, the only one letting us down was due to the Jags getting so far behind in the second half of that game meaning they went away from Fournette and the rushing game, annoyingly that was the one I put in our treble with @rfltips and @tssmembers which let them down as well as us!
So overall was finished the weekend 3 points down, eating into the 12 points profit from week 1 – Profit/Loss spreadsheet
So onto the Monday night match which sees the 1-0 Detroit Lions travel over to the Metlife to take on the NY Giants who disappointingly lost their opener in Dallas last week.
The Giants have failed to score over 20 points in their last 5 games now and their mis-firing offense definitely isn’t aided by the fact that if Odell Beckham Jnr. does play he won’t be fully fit, and could well be used as a distraction. He is the spark that this team needs as they had very little on that side of the ball last week without him there, unfortunately his status makes this game pretty tough to call. My thoughts are that he won’t play tonight and that the team and he have been saying there is a chance so that the Lions have to game-plan towards him taking part in it. IF he does play, I can’t see him being fully fit and he will probably have a limited route plan and act mainly as someone who takes away coverage from the other guys in the attack. Guys like second year Sterling Shepard who was the most targeted wide receiver last week for the team with 7, getting himself 44 yards. I like him, he’s usually decent odds for anytime scorer and gets looks in the end zone, again, unfortunately for us they also have other big bodied targets in the red zone now as well which muddles things a little. Big free agent signing Brandon Marshall only get 1 catch for 10 yards last week, I would be surprised if he was used so little this week and would expect those numbers to rise. In the absence of OBJ last week Roger Lewis was actually the leading WR with 54 yards on the night from 4 receptions. Adding to them is tight end Evan Engram, I have mentioned quite a few times that I think he’ll be a good player for them given that he’s basically just a big WR making him hard to cover in the middle of the field. I think he’ll have a decent game today and his yards are set reasonably at 34.5. He’s also a fairly tidy 3/1 to open his professional account tonight.
The running game doesn’t exist. But they have a few guys there, Paul Perkins, Orleans Darkwa and Shane Vereen. They combined for 10 rush attempts in the entire game last week, which is frankly laughable, but behind the Giants horrible offensive line it’s hardly a surprise (See Cincinnati and Seattle for how a gash OL affects a running game) to see few snaps wasted trying to run the ball. Shane Vereen however was the most targeted pass catcher coming out of the backfield and it seems like that’s how they’re trying to negate the crap in front of Eli.
I hadn’t even mentioned Eli Manning, winner of 2 superbowls… I have the feeling he’s done. This season is going to be the litmus test for him, if he can’t do it with the pass catching talent he’s got around him then he won’t be able to hack it in this league.
Luckily for the Giants offense, they spent big in the 2016 preseason on defence and it paid off, they have a very talented bunch of guys back there now with Janoris Jenkins, Landon Collins, DRC and sophomore Eli Apple providing one of the best secondaries in the league. They should be able to shut down at least one of the Lions receivers, but they have a few weapons so it will be an interesting tussle. Add to that the pass rush of JPP now that he’s figured out how to play with half a hand and it’s a pretty good unit!
On the other side of the field come the Detroit Lions. They battled through a rough first 3 quarters last week to walk out pretty convincing winners against the Cardinals who lost their only man on offense when DJ went out and the defence then apparently decided they couldn’t be bothered either and let the Lions do their usual 4th quarter comeback for the win.
Matthew Stafford is one of my favourite QBs to watch, you never really know what he’s going to do, but he’s got a great arm and get the ball through gaps that you didn’t know were there, well, in the fourth quarter the can anyway, he’s a man possessed when they are behind going into the last 15 mins, and they usually are.
His main man in the passing game is usually Golden Tate, he’s the release valve and he makes some good moves after the catch to help move the chains for his team, which he did well averaging over 10 yards per catch last week. They have a couple of decent targets down the field as well in Marvin Jones, and now the rookie Kenny Golladay who has been lighting it up in pre-season and earnt himself 2 TDs last week in that comeback win. That all came about because Patrick Peterson shadowed Jones, basically taking him out of the game and left Golladay on the 2nd CB in Arizona who Golladay was far too much of a physical match for, ending the game with 69 yards and 2 TDs from 4 catches. I’m not sure he’ll reach those heights in this game as it’s a more difficult matchup with better DBs in the Giants defence, but he’s definitely been impressive in his short pro. career so far. Add to those 3 the over-hyped and usually disappointing Eric Ebron and they’ve got a fairly decent unit there.
The running game was hugely disappointing last week, I’m a big fan of Ameer Abullah, but 30 yards from 15 carries doesn’t do it for me, he has improved in pass protection and I’m hoping he was just easing back into it after being injured for a lot of last year, hopefully it will come soon as I want him to succeed, behind him is Dwayne Washington who is a capable back as well so if AA is failing he can step in, then you’ve got Theo Riddick, the king of PPR fantasy football, he’s officially a back and is basically a better version of the Giants Shane Vereen catching the ball from the backfield he’s a tough guy to cover.
I think the Lions will win a low scoring game, but I won’t be betting on either of those things, so what is there to bet on in this one?
Well, I don’t think OBJ will be a go, and if he is, I don’t think he’ll be a full go. So because of that I’ll take the unders on his yards – OBJ Rec. Yards – u71.5 – 5/6 (BetVictor) – 2pts
HT/FT – I mentioned above the Lions love 4th quarter come backs, so this is a little bit of a long shot, but the logic is there Giants/Lions – 9/1 (BetVictor) – 1pt
I think Evan Engram should see a fair bit of the ball in the middle of the park today, he’s 3/1 to score anytime on Ladbrokes – 1pt and he’s either o34.5 on PP at 5/6 or o37.5 on 365 at 10/11 for receiving yards. Personally I’ll be taking the slightly higher odds – o37.5 receiving yards – 10/11 – (365) 1pt
One to keep an eye on when the team news is released is the opposite end of the alphabet to Abdullah, Zach Zenner is a good goal line back and if he plays then 10/1 anytime is a big price for him and worth 1 pt if he’s a go. (Blame/Credit @nfltouchdownbet for this one)
5pts (maybe 6pts) outlay for the night.
Hopefully it’s a better game than I’m expecting. I’m off work tomorrow so should be able to watch a fair bit of it unless I fall asleep which I think is fairly likely
Something I want to get on top of this season is getting a bet on the Handicap lines as early in the week as possible. It turns out I’ve got a free tenner in my Paddypower account for some reason so I’ve gone for
- Dolphins -6 (at Jets)
- Broncos -3 (at Bills)
- Chiefs -3 (at Chargers)
- Raiders -3 (at Redskins)
- Cowboys -3 (at Cardinals)
Which works out at around 24.5/1 – Of those two I think the final 2 are the best bets, with the Chiefs just behind, the Chiefs record in their own division is amazing.
Good Luck if you follow anything.
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