Week 4 Briefs and tips

Buffalo at Atlanta

Atlanta are one of the two unbeaten teams remaining in the league, and with the Chiefs playing on Monday should be the only team at 4-0 on Sunday. They are too good on offense for a stout Bills defence to stop. Devonta Freeman has scored in every game so far, Sanu, Gabriel and Julio offer 3 different options and Tevin Coleman can mix in wherever needed. While not as good as last year, they have still scored nearly 30 points a game. The Bills just won’t be able to keep up. McCoy has averaged 15 yards a game over his last two, admittedly against good defences, and they have little else, so teams are just stuffing the run. Should be an easy win for the Falcons – Who should cover the spread as well. One I will look for is Charles Clay (9/4) for the Bills, he’s received nearly 25% of the targets from Tyrod Taylor so far this year.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

baltpitt

Battle of the ridgeway – Both teams suffered humbling loses last week, the Ravens almost getting shutout by the Jags in London, and the Steelers having one of their random losses to a team that should really beat on the road. Flaccos injury may be causing some issues, but I’ve said all year that this is a really under-powered offense. If their defence doesn’t keep them in games, then they’re in trouble. And the Steelers, while not firing yet, should be able to put up too many points for the Ravens to keep up with them, the fact it’s in Baltimore gives me a little worry, and the Ravens will be even more fired up than usual, but I can’t see past the Steelers unfortunately. Got to get on under 42.5 here, it’s a tough tough divisional match which usually ends in a lower score. Alex Collins anytime at 13/2 on Skybet is too high, he was their best back last weekend.

Cincinnati at Cleveland

The other two AFC North teams meet each other in Cleveland, both in search of their first win of the season, the Browns lost to the Colts last week and seem to lack offensive weapons, but Kenny Britt did get involved finally and Njoku scored for the second week running, so look out for them in the betting. The Bengals lost a game they should have won in Green Bay, but it was a lot more positive for them, they have too many offensive weapons and Mixon got over 50% of the carries this week, they also did the sensible thing and fed AJ Green. I am biased, I won’t be betting on it. But this has to be a win for my BENGALS. The main worry for me in this game is that the Bengals, and Andy Dalton don’t do too well against familiar rivals. Mixon is 9/4 at time of writing. Bengals to lead after every quarter – 21/10 – The Browns are yet to take a lead in any game this season. (You can get 4/6 on Bengals to score first if you prefer)

LA Rams at Dallas

I’m not as shocked as most by the Rams doing well this year, I am shocked by how well though, they lead the league in points scored! Todd Gurley looks like he’s back, Jared Goff is looking adequate, Sammy Watkins finally got involved. It’s all looking up for the Rams. The Cowboys got back to winning ways on Monday night with Zeke scoring and running for 80 yards, but they were still gashed in the air. This is actually a really tough match to call for me, everything logical says Cowboys are home, especially considering the 49ers ran all over the rams last week, but I’m starting to really like these Rams! – I’ll be on the Rams on the handicap, 7.5 points is a lot, into 6 points now, but for the match… Ah sod it, after last weeks games anything can happen, Rams. Zeke is best of 8/11, Gurley a best of 11/10. I’ll be taking Gurley as he’s seemingly involved a lot more in the passing game now as well as the run.

s_jackson_081019_2_qt

Tennessee at Houston

The Titans are 6th in scoring and got it together in a hard fought win over the Seahawks last week, if they want to win this division, which I think they will then they’ve got to win these types of games, DeMarco Murray ran all over the Raiders last week despite a muscle strain, they’ve got tons of weapons in the pass game including 2 tight ends (Look out for Jonnu Smith). They are the better team despite the Texans pushing the Patriots close last week. DeShaun Watson dropping balls on dimes for Touchdowns was very impressive in his second game. This should be a close hard fought game again, but I like the Titans this year, so got to go for them. I’m on the Titans -1 from the start of the week, the money has come for them, they’re now -2.5. As for TD scorer? Watson at 4s? Tough one to call. Titans special teams could be a shout with Adoree Jackson returning kicks. Kid is electric. (7/2)

Detroit at Minnesota

The Vikings without Sam Bradford are awful right? Case Keenum? He’s garbage… Well, maybe not, he blew up last week against the Buccs with 369 yards and 3 TDs. Whether he can do it again against a pretty good Lions secondary now that Slay is back, who knows, but the history books suggests that he probably won’t be able to repeat it. They do however have a good home-field advantage which will come in handy here. The Lions narrowly lost out to the Falcons this week and they generally keep games close, but they’re also better at home so I’ve got to side with the Vikings. Cook at 11/10 is still tempting despite the short odds, 365 have gone high on Stefon Diggs though at 2/1, he’s 6/5 elsewhere

Carolina at New England

Cam Newton isn’t right, he’s out there, he ran in a touchdown this week, but his throws are not good, he’s either under-throwing because of his repaired shoulder, or over compensating and throwing over his recievers head. It doesn’t help that his pass catchers are dropping on a weekly basis, Olsen was already out and it seems that Kelvin Benjamin may miss this one, that leaves Funchess and top yardage guy last week, Christian McCaffery. Annoyingly for everyone else in the league, after that week 1, Tom Brady has looked amazing. He’s on target for nearly 6,000 yards and 58 TDs with no INTs. He’s got Gronk back and despite injuries still finds WRs for 4 TDs a game. Despite the shocks last week this can’t be anything other than a home win – New England Patriots. Dare I go back in on James White after last week?! 11/4 is tempting tbh, it’s between that and 5/2 on Christian McCaffery and I definitely prefer the second choice there!

Jacksonville at NY Jets

Both of these teams won last week! More than likely the last time we’ll say that all season, but the Jets are so poor as a franchise they can’t even Tank properly. Robby Anderson has the speed to get 67 yard TDs every week, but can’t be banked on. Elijah McGuire is getting more and more in the backfield. The Jags destroyed a very good Ravens defence at Wembley with a lot of movement and mis-direction, The Jets are no slouches on defence either, but I’ve got to think the Jags are the better team despite injuries. – Austin Sefarian-Jenkins anytime is too tempting at 8/1 (also 100/1 for 2 or more…)

San Francisco at Arizona

Where do I start here? The Cardinals used Chris Johnson as their main runner on Monday, but he wasn’t efficient, they struggled in the pass except for Larry Fitzgerald who blew up for 149 yards, other than that they relied on Andre Ellington out of the backfield and the Tight end. JJ Nelson wasn’t fit, so keep an eye on his health through the week. The 49ers have had a mini-bye to concentrate on this weekends match, they seem to be highlighting the run game with Carlos Hyde as they should, he’s their best player. This will be an interesting one to watch, I think the Cardinals are on the way down and the niners going the opposite way. 49ers + 6.5 pts on the Handicap

Philadelphia at LA Chargers

The Chargers, specifically Phil Rivers shot themselves in the foot this week against a good Chiefs defence. They’ve struggled to sell out a 27k stadium with over half seemingly the away team fans. RB Melvin Gordon is beaten up, Branden Oliver is his backup if he doesn’t go (3/1 isn’t good enough). The Eagles won with a 61 yard field goal as the clock expired on Sunday, they’re on a high at the moment but have injuries mounting, Darren Sproles could be done for good after an ACL and a broken hand in the same incident. It’s a sad way for him to finish if it is the end of him. Looks for a price on Wendl Smallwood (Only 3s, not worth it). Eagles

NY Giants at Tampa Bay

The Buccs got beaten up in their defeat in Minnesota, they lost 3 key members of their defence in that game (David, Alexander and Ward), that will make the visit of the Giants and all their receiving options a lot more of a test! The Giants are yet to win a game and will be determined here to change that, Beckham is back and if he keeps his self absorbed head out of his own arse long enough he can be the game changing talent here. Jameis Winston really struggled on offense for the Buccs, and he’ll be facing a very tough task again against this defence. Giants – nothing here to bet on really, would lean towards the Giants on handicap and the unders though

Oakland at Denver

The Broncos game back down to earth this week with a poor display in their loss at Buffalo, but they come back home where the air is thin and full of marijuana smoke. Trevor Siemian had 2 very good games there to open the season and he’ll be looking to re-find that form after throwing the game away last weekend, Jamaal Charles is looking good as the RB2, Sanders and Thomas need feeding. Interesting to see what price Bennie Fowler is here. Oakland were stuffed by the mighty Redskins last week, showing up the defensive frailties that we were all worried about. Derek Carr struggles with divisional matches, and the O-Line will be tested by the pass rush here. Another interesting match though and one worthy of TV coverage. Go to take the home team really Denver. Denver look good to cover the spread at home as well.

Indianapolis at Seattle

Russell Wilson put up career high figures last week in their loss to the Titans, his first half wasn’t good, but the second was classic him. Need to keep an eye on the injury to Doug Baldwin as he’s the main go-to guy. Thomas Rawls had 1 snap all game, but Chris Carson didn’t do too much either, CJ Prosise increased his role for the third week running though, and is a talented back – But he’s ruled out… Paul Richardson scored a TD again in the passing game. They should control this game throughout though so in theory it should be a running based game from them. The Colts won a game. Jake Brisket running in for 2 TDs and throwing another to TY Hilton along with his 145 yards. The Seahawks have been smashed by opposing runners, but I can’t see Frank Gore doing more than his usual 3 yards per carry despite that fact. Seahawks

Washington at Kansas City

Kirk Cousins threw for 365 yards and 3 TDs, they couldn’t get it going on the ground though, Samaje Perine fumbled and possibly broke his hand when getting smashed by a helmet, so they’ll need Rob Kelley back again. But stand up Chris Thompson, he’s been huge for this team so far this season with 4 TDs, they want to limit his carries, but might not be able to for too much longer. The Chiefs retained their 100% record with early Rookie of the year favourite Kareem Hunt once again getting a score. He’s not had a huge amount of work, but he breaks tackles and becomes the first rookie ever to start with 3 back to back to back 50 yard TD runs. Tyreek Hill seems to be stepping up in the passing game for Alex Smith, and Travis Kelce won’t score as little as last week. Looks for the line on sacks this week as the Redskins have a sneaky good pass rush getting 4 sacks against probably the best O-Line in the league last week. Home team again i’m afraid. Chiefs

Summary of bets –

  • Steelers v Ravens under 42.5 (most) – 2pts
  • Bengals to lead after every qtr – 21/10 (365) – 1pt
  • Joe Mixon anytime – 9/4  2/1 (365) – 2pts
  • Rams and 49ers moneyline double – 9.72/1 – 1pt
  • Rams +6 and 49ers +6.5 handicap – 2.8/1 – 2pts
  • Stefon Diggs anytime – 2/1  13/8 – 2pts
  • Austin Sefarian-Jenkins anytime – 8/1 (365) – 0.5pt  Price is long gone 😦
  • Alex Collins anytime – 13/2 (Skybet) – 1pt

Total outlay – 11 points

I’m a little pissed off at this tbh, I wrote this about 45 mins ago and was just checking a few other prices, about to post and the prices on 3 of them have been shortened considerably. Still a go on Mixon and Diggs, not on ASJ though. Worth checking Unibet and PP when they put up prices though, I’m working on less sites than usual due to it being early.

This is all that’s available to me at the moment, I’m on a stag do tomorrow so will likely be a tad hungover on Sunday but I’ll be trying to look at some lines if possible.

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