TNF – Week 4 – #DaBears @ #GoPackGo

Well, lets put week 3 behind us and hope that things even out in week 4! It was an absolute stinker, we weren’t the only people to get tripped up by it, but it did cost a fair few points.

Both of these teams went to over time on Sunday, the Packers getting a win over the Bengals with a field goal and the Bears beating out the Steelers essentially twice after a Tarik Cohen TD was ruled out, Jordan Howard strolled into the endzone on the next play for a nice win. Being on the road on a short week is usually not the position you want to be in, but the away teams have won all 3 Thursday night games so far. There have been 194 games between these 2 teams, and the series is currently level at 94 a piece and 6 ties. The Packer have scored 4 points more in total over all those games!

The Packers are notoriously slow starters in the season, and tonight come into the game missing a few offensive linemen, Bakhtiari and Bulaga are every week starters when fit, which could prove quite a problem for them! They did all right against the Bengals last week, but Rodgers was under a fair amount of pressure and threw a rare pick 6 to William Jackson. But his class as always shone through in the end. That talented son of a bitch. This week he goes against a fairly good defensive team in the Bears, they held the Falcons to 23 in week 1 and the Steelers to 17 last week, and in their one road game even Tampa only scored 22 on offense against them. But going on the road after a draining match on the Sunday, should make it a little easier for the Packers.

They should welcome back Randall Cobb from injury after he missed the week 3 game, he’ll slot back in alongside Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams as the WR2/3. He led the team in week 1, with 9 catches for 85 before getting injured in the second match in Atlanta while on 6 for 60 yards. Jordy Nelson as always was the go-to guy when it counted in the red zone, he’s essentially scored 3 in 2 games so far this season after going out before getting the ball in the 2nd. He got 2 TDs, 52 yards from 6 catches last week. He’s not getting the volume, but he is getting it where it counts and that should continue. He’s 6/5 on Skybet. Anything over evens is a go for me on Jordy. Davante Adams is a pain in the arse for betting. There’s a good chance he’ll get 2 TDs, but he could also go missing. It’s just not something that can be predicted. They have a 3 tight ends who could reasonably get involved. Martellus Bennett was their big free agency signing from NE, but from what I’ve seen he’s yet to really click with Rodgers and Nelson takes away a lot of the Redzone threat that he possesses. Last week Lance fricking Kendricks got a score, and Richard Rodgers is still in the team as well mixing it up even more! Unfortunately Geronimo Allison who picked up 122 yards last week, will probably be the WR4 and only really get involved if one of the other guys get injured.

The Packers running game has been almost exclusively Ty Montgomery so far (I believe he’s had the most snaps of any RB in the league), but there’s been hints this week that they may want to limit him a little to try and keep him fresh for later in the season, if this happens then it would be Jamaal Williams who gets a few carries. He’s a small temptation at 7/1 anytime on the off chance that he does get in the game. Ty was pretty ineffective against a decent Bengals defence, but he had scored 2 TDs in week 2 against the Falcons, one on the ground and one through the air, so it’s safe to say if he’s on form that he may well get into the endzone.

My one for the Packers has to be Jordy Nelson anytime TD at 6/5 on Skybet. 

The Bears as mentioned above have been good on defence so far this season, and in the home games, usable on offense. The one road game was at Tampa and QB, Mike Glennon seemed to forget that he had left them in the summer throwing 2 picks in that game, one of which was returned for a TD, he finished with 31/45 for 301 yards and a TD in that game, which stat-wise wasn’t actually that bad! Last week they realised that they couldn’t trust Glennon to lead them to the win and used the run game to control the clock and keep the ball away from the Steelers. Surely they’ll be using the same tactic tonight? They actually restricted Glennon to just 22 attempts, ending with 101 yards and a TD.

If they do that again, it means a lot of the ball for Jordan Howard, he was dynamite last week despite carrying a shoulder injury, finishing the game with 23 carries for 138 yards and 2 TDs. I can’t expect that again, but he should get the carries again this week. He and rookies Tarik Cohen are proving to be a very impressive duo. Cohen especially is a real game changer, he finished last week with just over 100 combined yards, 78 from 12 carries on the ground and 24 from 4 catches. He’s nicknamed the human joystick and it’s not hard to see why, in the week that could be the end of Darren Sproles, this guy looks like he could be the “new” pass catching back on the block, if he can have half the career Sproles did then he’ll be brilliant.

Pass catchers for the Bears are in short supply following a few injuries. They’ll be looking for Deonte Thompson? Josh Bellamy? Kendall Wright is probably the de facto WR1, Honestly, they’re not really worth considering. The tight ends are a little more interesting, but not exactly trust worthy either. Zach Miller is the veteran prescence there, but if they manage to get to inside the 5 and don’t run it then it seems like 6’6″ Adam Shaheen could be the target in the end zone. He scored last week, 1 from 1 target isn’t exactly great, but hey… it’s 100% success rate! He’s a lovely 10/1 if you fancy a long shot on someone on the Bears side.

I’m really not sure on this match, the Packers on a short week at Lambeau should be covering the spread of 7 points, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the total of 44 points get beaten either. But the offensive line issues worry me on that side of the ball.

Summary –

  • Jordy Nelson anytime TD – 6/5 (Skybet) – 2pts
  • Adam Shaheen anytime TD – 10/1 (Skybet) – 0.5pts
  • Nelson and Cohen both to score – 5/1 (Skybet) – 1pt
  • Total points o43.5 – 10/11 (most places – I’m on at Skybet) 1.5pts

5 points outlay.

After the week just gone I’m going to be keeping it low stakes for at least tonight. Far far too much red on Here fingers crossed it was an anomaly last week!

 

Adam @TouchdownTips

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