MNF – Week 4 – #HTTR @ #ChiefsKingdom

Well well well, another distinctly average week for me unfortunately, nowhere near last weeks debacle thank god, but a 4 points loss over the week isn’t good enough. I’m not hitting the TD scorers, but did well on the standard markets. I have had a couple of busy weekends so have been a little rushed and distracted. That shouldn’t have led to the losses I’ve had as I’ve still been backing everything I put up so I still expect them to win, but it’s just not been hitting this last 2 weeks. I mean we’ve been unlucky with a few as well, the Jay Ajayi one this week. They drove down to the 3 yard line and then tried a fucking fade to their tight end which got intercepted. A very weird decision when they could have just let Londonborn stomp it forward three times which would have got us off to a great start for the weekend. C’est la vie.

The Bengals to lead after every quarter was the right bet… But they got their first score with the first play of the second quarter and stuffed the Browns in the end, 31 points, but none for Mixon, he was wide open in the middle of the end zone on one of the Kroft TDs, the odds were still too high in my opinion for him though. I know these are sob stories to a certain extent, but a decision here and there going the other way and we’d be in clover. It’s certainly been an annoying few weeks. There’s a few guys I will not be backing until they break out properly. Christian McCaffery, Joe Mixon, you’re both dead to me until you can prove it. I did tip up Elijhaa McGuire for the Jets a week ago at 25/1… so of course he goes and scores this week for the Jets when there weren’t enough bloody markets up on that game on Friday and he was too low for my liking. Anyway, enough crying over what could have been and on to the Monday match.

Washington Redskins (-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (+7) (total – 48.5)

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The Chiefs are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games, but, the Redskins are 5-1 ATS on the road in their last 6…It seems off the bat that the overs is the pick to make, but 4 of the last 6 of their games have gone under. This is a really tough game to pick.

The Chiefs are the last remaining unbeaten team in the league, thanks mainly to rookie Kareem Hunt who has scored 6 TDs in his first 3 games, you won’t be surprised to find out that that’s the most of any rookie RB in their first 3 games, and his consecutive run of 50+yard TDs is a new record in the league as well. It’s safe to say he’s been brilliant so far and with the injury to Dalvin Cook this week, it’s between him and DeShaun Watson for OROY. Hunt is now odds on, Watson was available at 13/2 according to Oddshark.com (before this weekend) as the second favourite. Hunt leads the league in rushing yards this season and he’s stupidly tough to bring down he seems to break at least one tackle on every run. Last week he only had 17 carries, but took them for over 10 ypc, ending up with 172 yards with a touchdown taking him to 401 on the season in his three games. He comes up a Washington defence that is historically not good against the run, but has done well this year to be the 12th rated run defence.

Alex Smith has stepped up now that he has a little competition with Paddy Mahomes behind him. He’s kept his efficiency and accuracy but has added the downfield threat that he was so often criticised for. He’s leading the league with 77% completion percentage on the season averaging 258 yards per game in the first 3.

The Chiefs receiving corps is still a worry to me as it was coming into the season, Tyreek Hill has done a good job stepping up to be the main man so far averaging over 80 yards per game so far, he’s got 2 TDs on the season, but this week I would imagine will be tracked by Josh Norman, and while he’s a bit of a dick, he’s a damn good cornerback, but then again Hill has blinding speed which is something that not a lot of the league possess, he’ll prove a tough challenge for Norman. IF he is limited then they will need someone like Chris Conley or Albert Wilson to step up to the plate, they’ve chipped in here and there with the odd catch getting 20 odd yards per game each. It’s something I guess. The secondary pass catcher is usually…I say usually as his only catch last week was for 1 yard… Travis Kelce, baby Gronk as he loves to be known got 103 receiving yards and a diving touchdown in week 2 against the Eagles so he’s obviously part of the plan for the team as he should be, and I would think that last week was a blip. Skybet have reacted slightly with their yards line, it’s set at o57.5, while I won’t be tipping it, I do think he should beat that line. I usually go for the his total receptions, but they’re 1 over what I’d be happy taking at 5.5 on 365.

Their defence is a great unit as well, their secondary lost Eric Berry earlier in the season which most of us were expecting to hit them, but they don’t seem to have missed a beat. Marcus Peters had a great game against the Chargers last week, and Cousins isn’t too different to Philip Rivers in his style. But the best guy on their defence so far has been Justin Houston who is looking back to his old self after injury and has been killing offensive lines so far this season. They’ve notched the total sacks line up to 5.5 on 365 which makes it a no bet for me, but this game could have quite a few QB hits in it!


The Redskins pulled off an impressive win over the Raiders last week and have looked good after losing their first game of the season, although their redzone offense leaves something to be desired, they’re currently the 3rd worst in the league at converting in the redzone at just 33%.

Kirk Cousins had himself a game last week with 3 TDs, while he hasn’t looked as good as I expected he has done well to get himself to where he is now given that his main target was meant to be Terrelle Pryor who just can’t seem to catch the ball at the moment. Is this maybe where Pryor breaks out? He’s obviously a talented receiver who had a great season in an awful Browns team last year, he’s got the pace and the height to go up against anyone but just can’t hold on to the ball at the moment. If it continues, and he only receives 4 targets as he has done for the last 2 weeks then he’s off the board for me, taking the unders on his yards seems like the logical thing to do, but he has the ability to get one catch for 60 yards so I’m always a little tentative with the unders. The player I will be looking for in the pass game is Jamison Crowder, he’s been steadily building his workload since coming into the season carrying a knock, he’s listed as questionable this week but it looks like he’ll be playing despite being on the injury report because of a hamstring worry. The Chiefs have been conceding yards to slot receivers which is where Crowder usually does his work, so I think a line of 34.5 is pretty low for him after topping 50 last week. If he doesn’t go then it could be worth a punt on Josh Doctson or Ryan Grant, Doctson is more boom or bust, he had 1 catch last week and it was a 52yd TD. Grant gets more action and has a score on the season as well.

Tight end is an interesting look for them as well, Jordan Reed is one of the best in the league when he plays, but he’s their Tyler Eifert and is constantly injured. He missed last week and in his place Vernon Davis got himself on the scoresheet. This week Reed is supposed to be playing although it won’t be confirmed until an hour before kick off. If he is a go then I won’t be taking anything on him. If he doesn’t go then getting 11/2 (at Ladbrokes) on Vernon Davis to score again is great odds. It’s one that I’m personally on, but with the uncertainty over Reed I won’t be tipping it to the masses.

Their running game is again complicated. Rob Kelley is the main guy when fit, he’s another one who it looks like will be playing tonight but again nothing has been confirmed there. He’s actually priced pretty high at 11/4 on Ladbrokes, but I will be passing on him. I tipped up Samaje Perine for OROY at huge odds over the summer, he’s not been the explosive player I was expecting and fumbled last week after having his hand smashed by an opponents helmet. There were fears of a broken hand, but nearly as worrying is the fact the coach Jay Gruden doesn’t forgive fumblers. It’s something he really needs to sort out and unfortunately it seems to have limited his effectiveness as he’s concentrating too much on holding the ball rather than running over people. 3rd choice is Mack Brown, he got some action last week after Perine left the game and did a decent job with it. But the guy you want to be looking at here is Chris Thompson, he’s been extremely good in the first 3 games. He operates as a pass catching back and that seems like it will be the way it remain with the coach saying that he won’t be extending his role to help keep him healthy, whether you should stay in the fire with a guy who is hot at the moment, or accept that it’s something that isn’t going to keep going I’m not quite as sure. But 4 TDs in 3 games isn’t to be sniffed at, he hit 188 combined yards last week and cleared 100 the week before. His yards line is set low when considering that at just 68.5. I’m more glass half empty on him to be honest so won’t be taking it, but he has been awesome so far this year so I wouldn’t be shocked! He is however 9/4 to get a TD at anytime on Skybet. That is one I will be taking. He’s scored in all 3 games so far.

So as alluded to, it’s a tough game to call. Honestly, I’m not sure I’m even leaning any way on the totals or the spread. I think it’s all about right. It’s one that I am happy to get up at 130am to watch as it should be a really good game for the neutral.

One thing that I will be on will be the Skybet 3 for 2 Request a bet offer, basically pick 2 RaBs and place £5 a go on each and you get a free £5 to use on the NFL which last a week.

The 3 I like the look of are obviously the first 2 are “bankers” to get the freebie one at higher odds -:

  • Smith and Cousins both 1+ passing TD – 4/6 (was 11/10 when I started the writeup)
  • Points scored in every quarter – 4/9
  • Hunt to score a 50+ yard TD – 8/1

Summary, all Skybet tonight, they have the best odds

  • Jamison Crowder o34.5 receiving yards – 10/11 – 2pts
  • Chris Thompson anytime TD – 9/4 – 2pts

They’re the only ones I’ll be recording on the sheet. The others are a few I was considering for personal bets. I’m not sure it’s necessarily the right way to do it for you guys, but I don’t know what 1 point is for anyone, the Skybet offer is £5 per bet and something I will be on myself.

 

Good Luck, I’m confident things will turn around soon, we’ve been hitting the bar recently rather than turning up at the wrong stadium.

 

Adam

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