The weekly bets haven’t gone to plan the last few weeks, and while I refuse to call it the quarter pole and I’m pretty sure that’s meant to be with a quarter of the season left… Everyone else seems to be checking on their season longs, so I’ll give it a look here.
First up Offensive rookie of the year… We’re not winning this one, but did get some really good odds on some of the guys. Joe Williams was done before the season started being put on IR for the season. Dont’a Foreman was a decent look though, he’s looked pretty good in the spells he’s been getting for the Texans, but Miller is still in charge of the backfield there. Perine has been getting chances for the redskins but hasn’t shown enough to displace Rob Kelley there, his fumbling issues aren’t helping either as he’s not being trusted by the coaching staff, but 175/1 was tremendous odds when we got on. Dalvin Cook was looking like he was going to be top 3 with Kareem Hunt and I believe would have pushed him close, we had him at 20/1 which was again great odds, but unfortunately he’s now out for the season. Kareem Hunt is odds on currently to win it, if you can find anywhere still offering odds it would be worth getting on Deshaun Watson. QBs are always going to be favoured and if he puts up 57 points each week he’ll be winning it.
Passing yards –
We’re on Brees (5/1) outright and Phil Rivers EW (top4 25/1) – Brees is currently 4th, but Brady is storming away at the top due to the fact that their defence is shocking, while the Saints defence has been surprisingly effective. Phil Rivers is only 40 yards from the top 4 slot that would give some return on the 25/1 odds that we got.
Receiving yards –
AJ Green (18/1) is our best shot here, with the new offensive coordinator in Cincinnati they have been heavily targeting him and that should continue especially with Eifert and Ross seemingly constantly injured, he’s currently 7th with 2 TEs ahead of him that he should pass, I also don’t believe that Diggs and Thielen will keep up this rate either. Michael Thomas (20/1) is 9th, currently just 5 yards behind AJ Green and Demaryius Thomas (33/1) is down in 19th an extra 60 yards back.
Rushing yards –
We had just the one here, LeSean McCoy (20/1) – Despite being 8th in attempts, he’s languishing down at 16th in yards gained so far. Kareem Hunt is running away with it (get it?!) so far, so it looks like we’ll be playing for a place with Shady, he needs top 4, but is already 100 yards off of that. It will take a lot, but he’s getting the attempts, he just needs to break a few runs and get the yards now!
Team bets –
Steelers, Buccs, Pats, Seahawks – These are looking ok, the Falcons losing this week helped a lot with the Buccs one which is the most risky of the 4. I expect the Steelers, Pats and Seahawks to improve through the season and win their divisions fairly comfortably. The Steelers especially now the Bengals have started so poorly and the Ravens have zero offense.
Treble – I’m not sure I posted this and the one below on the site, but these are on my season long spreadsheet, quite possibly just personal bets
Talking of the Ravens… we’re on them at u9.5 wins which looked pretty ominous when they stuffed the Bengals and Browns at the start of the season, but their lack of offense has shone through recently and that bet is looking pretty good. – The Jets u5.5 – Well… fuck knows. They don’t have the roster to win 6 games, but I didn’t think they have the roster to win as many as they have already. Here they are sitting at 2-2 and they are facing the Browns next week! They’re in a treble with the Steelers wining the division. Which was somehow accepted despite both containing AFC North teams.
5 fold –
Added to the 3 above I’m also on Buccs over 8 wins and Jags o5.5 wins. As above, the Buccs have started well enough, currently 2-1 a game behind everyone else but they haven’t got their running game going at the moment, that could change with Doug Martin now back in training. The Jags… fuck knows! They score 44 points against the Ravens then go and lose to the Jets. They have a serious problem at QB, Bortles is around 50% completion on the season, they are sat at 2-2 so a third of the way there so far!
When Andrew Luck went out we won a decent amount on that first game and I suggested getting on the Colts u8.5 win at Evens. That’s looking good although them trading for someone better than Scott Tolzein has made it a little closer than I expected! Brissett has taken them to 1-3, Luck is now back in training and expected back in week 6. They may have won 2 by then? Would mean going 6-4 in the final 10 games to ruin our bet. I’m happy with how this one is looking!
Team total points –
Rams o300 (9/5) – This one is looking the best out of all the season longs. The Rams unbelievably are leading the lead in scoring with 142 from 4 games, at nearly 36 points per game! That’s nearly half way to the 300 total with just a quarter of the season gone. They do face tougher defences over the next 10 games, but this one is surely a winner.
Titans o365 (9/5) – While not looking as tidy as the Rams bet, the Titans are 9th in points scored on 100 so far and they haven’t really clicked yet. Mariota could miss a week which may hit us a little, but if they keep up 25 points per game that will comfortably get us to the 366 that we need. I think this will be tight though!
So overall a mixed bag, the OROY bets are down. But if you can find anywhere to get on Deshaun Watson then I would advise doing so. Rivers, Green and probably Michael Thomas have chances in their markets, though Brady missing a game or two would help immensely there! Shady needs to get his shit together, he’s getting the chances so I’m still holding out hope there. The win markets are looking relatively good, we could do with the Buccs winning against the Patriots this week to keep up with the Panthers and Falcons in that division. The Ravens won’t reach 10 wins, the Jets and Jags, god knows.
And the total points bets, well one of them is more than likely going to win so that covers the other one and then some if the Titans don’t get their act together.
All in all, not too bad which is a relief given how shit the weekly tips have been so far.