SNF – Week 5 – Televised write ups and tips

So after a bloody useless couple of weeks with the tips, we finally had some winners on Thursday night with 4/5 on the Blog landing, 4 out 6 in all as we took a punt on Jacob Hollister at big odds once the news of Gronk going out was announced on twitter, it was a longshot and turned out to be so, the one failure on the blog was again the bigger odds and BPTS. All in all a good night with 7 points profit.

Carolina (+2.5) at Detroit (-2.5) – o/u 42.5 – 1800 K.O.

The Lions come into this matchup at 3-1 and they were almost at 4-0, coming agonisingly close to beating the Falcons when Golden Tate was ruled down on the 1 yard line after review and the rules of a 10 second run off ended the game. They have shown they have one of the best defences in the league so far this season with Glover Quinn and Darius Slay having great seasons so far. The Lions lead the league in points scored off of turnovers so far and it’s something they will hope to keep up against an inaccurate Cam Newton.

Matt(hew) Stafford has continued his form from last year where he led his team to countless 4th quarter comebacks to win. A lot of experts expected them to fall off this year given how close their games were last year and to be fair it didn’t seem feasible that they could continue winning close games, but here we are! Stafford hasn’t put up great numbers so far, but he hasn’t needed to. He’s still thrown 7 TDs this year, although 4 of them came in the opening game of the season vs the Cardinals, more importantly given the apparent ethos of this team at the moment, he has only thrown one INT, also in that first game.

Marvin Jones is still the main TD threat for this pass offence but is very boom or bust so he’s impossible to call on any TD market. The chain mover and usual favourite target for the Lions is still Golden Tate, he’s got one score on the season and as I’ve said above, was half a yard from another, in fairness it’s a chance he should have been converting, he’s received 7.5 targets and about 55 yards per game this season. The #3 WR position is currently up in the air between TJ Jones and Kenny Golladay. Golladay jumped off the screen in the first game with 2 TDs and 69 yards against the Cardinals. He’s been limited with a hamstring injury since but he’s not someone I would be willing to trust with anything frankly. Eric Ebron is a guy who’s full of promise at tight end, but just never shows it. This year they were expected to run him more as a WR but he has done very little in the opportunities that he’s had with just 87 yards from 11 receptions on the season and the only score coming against the Giants in week 2. (they are not good vs the TE)

The Lions do seem to be trying to emphasise the run game with an apparently fit again Ameer Abdullah. He was close to being the first Lion in 57 games to rush for over 100 yards last week and has been getting a lot of carries (16ish per game) for the team without impressing to the extent I thought he would have done so far. He did rush in for his first TD of the season against the Vikings last week, it was a good second push after it looked like he had been stopped on the first attempt. He’s also been getting a little bit in the passing game with 3 catches in 3 of the 4 games they’ve had so far. The passing game was meant to be Theo Riddicks domain, I’ve backed him a couple of times in yardage markets and failed miserably, he just isn’t getting the work I would have expected from him. There’s a small possibility that they use Zach Zenner as a goal line back, but he’s not done much so far this year, so he’s not really in my consideration.

Detroit Lions v Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are also at 3-1 after defeating the Partiots with the last kick of the game last week, Cam looked great, but apparently everyone does these days, he finished the day with 316 and 3 through the air and a rushing Touchdown and 44 on the ground. It was a display that gave pause to my thoughts on how he’s been this season, his arm seemed good and he had no issue running the ball either and all this without his favourite chain mover Greg Olsen in the pass catching corps.

That area was lead by Kelvin Benjamin who topped 100 yards (from just 4 receptions) on the day despite coming in with a knock. The man with the touchdowns was finally Devin Funchess who has been threatening to do… something, anything for most of his career and finally had himself a performance without Greg Olsen in it was time for someone to step up and it seemed to me like it would be between him and McCaffrey, this week it was Funchess. In fairness Ed Dickson took advantage of a weak middle in the Pats defence as well as a direct replacement but I won’t be trusting him week in, week out. I would expect Slay to cover Benjamin for the Lions which could limit him and Glover Quinn usually plays in the slot so he’ll take care of whoever is there. The Lions have however been a little susceptible to pass catching back. And that leads me on to the RBs…

Christian McCaffery. I have mentioned his name every week so far waiting for him to break out to no avail. I’m done with him for TD scoring anyway. I can forgive last week as the Pats do well at taking away your biggest threat, and it was him. But I’m done until he gets himself into the end zone, in fact he’s not been great as a runner between the tackles which we all thought might have happened when he was drafted, so Jonathon Stewart is the main traditional RB in Carolina and he shares the goal line role with Cam. So for me, I won’t be chasing either for anytime scorers in what could be a low scoring affair this week. One thing that COULD go in McCafferys favour? It’s his first game in a dome?! Yeah i’m stretching.

The Panthers do have a solid defence and LUUUUUUUUUUUKE is one of my favourite Linebackers to watch, they are young in most areas and have done a fairly good job so far this year.

I’ve got nothing on the anytime front, with Lions games it’s usually sensible to go for losing at half time, but winning full time, that’s 8/1 at Unibet. But I will probably wait for that inplay. If they’re trailing by less than 7 at the start of the 4th quarter then it makes sense to get on them inplay.

One bet in this game I think has to be the Unders on the total, The total has gone under in 11 of the last 15 Lions games, this season the two games they’ve had with low totals they’ve both gone under, strangely the higher total matches have both gone over. (In game between these two teams it is different, 4 of the last 6 have gone overs, but I’m not sure historical stats every make that much difference, different players/coaches etc) Under 42.5 points – 2pt stake (most bookies)


Green Bay (+2.5) at Dallas (-2.5) – o/u 52.5 – 2125 K.O.

A rematch of a fantastic playoff game last year which the Packers won 34-31 with a last kick field goal after Rodgers and Cook marched them down the field with less than a minute remaining. It was a brilliant match and hopefully this one will live up to expectations.

The Packers have the best QB in the league in Aaron Rodgers who performs week in, week out with whatever is left to him. He’s had some serious OL troubles this year but they haven’t slowed him too much and his sneakiness at catching teams substituting whilst the height of scumbaggery is pretty impressive and leads to countless free plays which he invariably converts into high yardage gains. I’d imagine he will get at least 2 in this game! They should welcome back a couple of their Offensive linemen this week though which should help them out even more.

They may well be without Ty Montgomery who fractured several ribs last week. Apparently he’s been training this week with a flak jacket on, and there’s reports that he could even play this week… *shakes head* the crazy bastard. Personally I’m not buying it, I think they and he would be stupid to play, but who knows, money and the worry of losing your position in the team are dangerous motivators. Jamaal Williams was the go-to backup in the team but he also went out injured last week opening the door for Aaron Jones who I personally thought looked the better of the two and reports I heard/read from beat reporters suggested similar in pre-season. Jones finished the game last week and got himself a TD and 49 yards from 13 carries, he’s also adept in the passing game if called upon. Unfortunately for my hopes on the welshman Jamaal Williams looks like he’ll be available and I would imagine they’ll put him in as the main RB should Montgomery not go. Basically. It’s a bit of a mess.

Davante Adams suffered a horrible hit to the helmet which left him unconcious, it seems as though he could have avoided a concussion and be available this week which seems ridiculous. Whether he does or not shouldn’t affect Cobb or Nelson in the passing game, they both have good chemistry with Rodgers and have clearly defined roles. I would like Cobb more if Adams missed out, I have actually personally got him in a 2+ TD bet, obviously a longshot, and probably a waste of money, but he has these weeks where everything seems to go right for him, I just have a weird feeling on Cobb this week. Jordy Nelson will obviously be the go-to guy in the red zone as he always is, he has 5 TDs on the year, and 2 in each of his last 2 games. Martellus Bennett has been getting targeted without putting up any impressive numbers so he’s not someone I’m particularly interested in, although I do believe he’s the second most targeted Tight end in football.

USP NFL: NFC DIVISIONAL-GREEN BAY PACKERS AT DALLA S FBN USA TX

The Cowboys aren’t as anywhere near as beaten up as the Packers have been, but it seems like they’ll be missing Sean Lee again which is a big loss to their defence which has not been very good this year.

Dak Prescott… I’ve made my feelings clear on him on here, he’s a good QB, he’s efficient and doesn’t turn the ball over too much. He’s done very well this year as they’ve been using him and the passing game a fair bit more than just relying on Zeke as they did last season, this week is the first time all season that they’re leading WR won’t be facing a top cornerback so in theory, he should do even better this week.

That leading WR is Dez Bryant. He’s faced Janoris Jenkins, the Broncos defence and Partick Peterson in his first 4 games, the one game against a not top 5/10 cornerback/cb group, he went for nearly 100 yards vs the Rams last week. This week he will probably face a rookie in Kevin King, AJ Green got 111 yards from 10 receptions against him in week 3, but he is still rated as one of the best rookie CBs by PFF. I don’t like Dez, but he is the 4th most targeted WRs in the league so far this season, so I do think he should be able to beat his line of around 65 yards this week against this coverage. Alongside him there’s a few guys, none of which I am confident in recommending for anything, Terrance Williams, Brice Butler, Cole Beasley in the slot. Even in a 30 point game vs the Rams last week none of them got over 40 yards, all were beaten by Zeke who got 54 through the air.

Ezekiel Elliott is obviously the guy in the running game and despite the looming fears of a suspension he had himself a game last week with a TD on the ground and through the air and finished with nearly 140 combined yards on the day. The offensive line isn’t as good as last year so it’s slowed him and Dak a little but he’s obviously still one of the best and most reliable guys in the league on the ground despite being a bit of a twat.

I think the Packers will win this, but I won’t be backing it, hopefully it will live up to the predicated score and prove to be a good game, with only 3 later games it should get a lot of coverage on redzone!

One for this game – Dez Bryant over 64.5 5/6 on Paddypower – 2pts – (you can probably get away with up to 69.5 on skybet)


Kansas City (-1) at Houston (+1) – o/u 45.5 – 0130 K.O.

Last season this would have been a nailed on Unders for me. But after the matches last week it could be anything!

The Texans took the plunge in week, dropping starting QB Tom Savage at half time and starting rookie Deshaun Watson who looked equally out of his depth in the second half of that beating by the Jaguars, fast forward 3 weeks and he now looks like Michael Vick re-born, taking apart the Tennessee Titans on the ground and through the air and putting up the most points in Texans history (57) in only his 4th game. It really was an impressive performance, 4 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD in that game, and one that puts him (in my eyes) second in the running for OROY to Kareem Hunt (We tipped him at 7/1, now into 10/3ish)

Unsurprisingly DeAndre ‘Nuk’ Hopkins was the main man in the passing game again, he leads the league in targets this year in targets (49) and receptions (31) last week he caught 10 for 107 yards and a TD. The return of Will Fuller V back into the offense finally added another option for Watson to throw to and he knew how to use it, giving him 2 TDs in his first game back from injury and drawing at least one PI call near the end zone which stopped him from having a bigger night in the box score. Bruce Ellington was also back for them and Lamar Miller had himself a day catching from the backfield as well. All in all it’s a hugely different team than the one I watched beat the Bengals with 2 players in week 2. He’s also got a couple of tight ends should he need to check down or a big body in the middle of the field. I took Ryan Griffin in a couple of fantasy leagues but targets seem to be split with Stephen Anderson.

As well as having 56 yards through the air last week, Lamar Miller also had 75 on the ground. Having a more balanced offense should greatly help him in the run game, he’s a talented player who just doesn’t seem to be able to make the jump to juggernaut. If he’s struggling they have a good change of pace in Dont’a Foreman who was a rookie I liked in the pre-season. He’s had limited playing time but done well with it so far.

The Texans defence should be able to slow down the Chiefs, and although JJ Watt isn’t putting up the sack numbers, he’s be great in that defensive line. I would expect them to heavily target Hopkins again and try to line him up against Terrance Mitchell who is the Chiefs worst CB.

Houston Texans v Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are the only unbeaten side left in the league and if they win on Monday morning it will be their 9th straight road win, tying the franchise record set in 1966-67.

There’s not a huge amount to add to last weeks MNF write up for the Chiefs to be honest, they took care of the Redskins thanks to a pretty dominant second half, but really should have lost the game with Josh Doctson dropping a catch that would have sealed it for Washington, in the end the lateral mess at the end meant that they covered the spread, and the total points in a lot of places as well!

Alex Smith did as he has done all season, Fairly efficient, found his players where needed, he did however also burn them with 56 yards on the ground, one lovely run where he turned up-field after faking the run out of bounds and gained an extra 20 yards or so. He was very impressive in the game winning drive although the beaten up WAS secondary definitely helped them with that.

The heavy odds-on favourite for OROY Kareem Hunt has been the main driving force for their unbeaten start, he notched up another 100 yards on the ground last Monday from a season high 21 carries lowering his average yards per carry to a measly 7.4. He also adds to the passing game and has shown his ability in breaking countless tackles already so far this year. He’s a some player to watch and incredibly difficult to bring down. The opposition today are the second best run stopping team in the league so this will pose his biggest challenge so far this season!

The passing game revolves around either Tight end Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill. Last week was a Kelce game, he topped 100 yards and got into the paint again. He’s scored in both of the game he’s gone over 100 yards, the worry for me on anything Kelce related is that 1-1-1 week he had a fortnight ago against the Chargers, but he’s a dynamic weapon for Smith in the middle of the field and one he generally uses a lot! Unsurprisingly Hill has opposite stats to Kelce, in the 2 games Kelce has gone o100 he has 43 and 35 yards and no scores… In the other 2 he has 77 and 133 and a touchdown in each. So who is it going to be this week? The Texans are middle of the pack against both WRs and TEs, the speed in which the pass rush gets to Smith could lead it to be a Kelce game, but I can’t pick between the two of them. Aside from the big 2, Albert Wilson proved himself useful last week moving the chains a couple of times and getting open on one Alex Smith scramble. It’s between him and Chris Conley for the targets outside of the main guys but you can’t have anything on either of them.

The Chiefs do have one of the best pass rushes in the league and Justin Houston is playing lights out at the moment after being injured for much of last season he looks back to his best in rushing the QB. They will face a challenge today with the scrambling ability of Deshaun Watson.

This is a surprisingly difficult match to call and one that should be intriguing to watch. Is Watson as good as he looked against one of the worst secondaries in the league last week? Are the Chiefs for real? Can Kareem Hunt do it against a good run defence? Well the money has come for the Chiefs, they’re now the 1 points favourites on the road after opening as underdogs. That’s actually put me off backing them ATS. I was happy to get the point, not so much now, the total has dropped half a point as well.

I was looking for Watson rushing yards, but 32.5 is about right. Watson anytime is 11/4 on Unibet, and as low as 5/4 on Coral.

Deshaun Watson anytime TD – 11/4 (Unibet) – 2pts – Kareem Hunt rushing attempts u19.5 – 10/11 (bet365) – 1pt

Summary.

  • Panthers @ Lions under 42.5 points – 10/11 – 2pts
  • Dez Bryant o64.5 receiving yards – 5/6 (Paddypower) – 2pts
  • Deshaun Watson anytime TD – 11/4 (unibet) – 2pts
  • Kareem Hunt under 19.5 rush attempts – 10/11 (bet365) – 1pt

7 points outlay for the televised matches.

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