Week 5 – SNF – non-televised games! Brief writeups and tips

A wide open week of match-ups this week with some horrible looking, but probably quite interesting games on paper with a few crackers. I’ll put a few tips while going through the write ups and stakes as the end of it.

Buffalo at Cincinnati, 

Feel like I say this every game, every week, but this is a tough matchup! The Bills have given up just 1 passing TD in 4 weeks and face a Bengals team with their own solid defence. Everything in the stats says it should be a low scoring affair, but the Bengals have looked a new team under Bill Lazor at OC, although against poor defences. The Bills have lost Jordan Matthews leaving them with precious few play makers on the offense. Charles Clay is the man to look at in the anytime markets. It may be a homer pick, but the Bengals -3 looks good to me, and the Unders. I’m just not sure where the Bills points are coming from – Bengals – Charles Clay o43.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (PP)

NY Jets at Cleveland

The Browns are favourites?! What the hell… how?! How are the Browns ever favourites? Well they were actually trying to win this year, the Jets from their off-season antics were actively searching that #1 pick next year, but the team seem to have other ideas. They’ve been playing surprisingly hard and they have a solid defence. Add to that an experienced QB who wants to prove he’s not horrible and they find themselves at 2-2. The Browns started ok, but looked lost against the Bengals last week. They have Kenny Britt who coach Jackson said they would have cut if they had anything else at WR, Crowell the off-season darling who is barely seeing a touch, and a beaten up defence. Myles “The beast” Garrett should add something fun to them this week at least but I can’t see past the – Jets (and I like the overs here) – Austin Sefarian-Jenkins anytime – 11/4 (365) – 2 or more – 25/1 (365) – He’s been getting the target share and been talked up constantly, if he doesn’t score this week against a Browns team that has conceded two TDs to tight ends on two occasions this year then I won’t be backing him again!

Indianapolis Colts v New York Jets

San Francisco at Indianapolis

Will the niners get their first win of the season? Or will the Colts manage to show they’re not a stinking pile of trash. Well the Colts have at least won a game this year and have shown signs of life since bringing in Jacoby Brissett, they also have their center Ryan Kelly back this week which will help greatly. That win came against the 0-4 Browns though which may now mean much. They’re coming off the back of a stuffing by the Seahawks on primetime last week and now back home, they’ll want to show they’re not as useless as they seem. The 49ers will be missing Goodwin, so look for Robinson or Trent Taylor in the anytime markets, Robinson got 12 targets last week in place of Goodwin and should be well priced. – Colts – Trent Taylor anytime TD – 13/2 (PP) This is a value pick, he’s double the price on there that he is elsewhere and they don’t have a huge amount more to throw to outside of Pierre Garcon.

Tennessee at Miami

Battle of the “could have beens” Well, It might be a little too soon to write off the Titans, but with Marcus Mariota will be missing out for them and the fear of playing Matt Cassel or Brandon Weedon that team takes a major hit on offense and their defence has been poor all season. Fortunately for them they face a Dolphins side who were 4 seconds from being shut out two games in a row against the mighty defences of the Jets and the Saints. They’re a mess on offence this season so far – Titans, you can probably take the unders on this game, but frankly, I don’t want any part of it. Devante Parker would be the guy IF I was backing anything. 23/10 on PP.

LA Chargers at NY Giants

Battle of the winless sides. And, I’m ashamed to say, two teams who I thought would make the playoffs this year. Both have a lot of offensive talent but are being let down in other areas. The Giants have no offensive line and no run game meaning that everyone knows that they are looking to go through the air. The Chargers aren’t far off either, Gordon isn’t really doing the job in the run game meaning that Rivers has to throw more and he just doesn’t care whether it’s an interception or a TD. Great for neutrals to watch, not great for their team, look for either Hunter Henry or Antonio Gates, Tight ends score vs the Giants. Travelling West to east, for a 1pm kick off, I’ve got to take the home side – Giants – HH is 11/4 on unibet, Gates is 9/4 at WillHill and Fred.

Arizona at Philadelphia

The Cardinals are one dimensional without David Johnson, they’re going to throw and throw, which matches up well here as the Eagles have a lot of injuries in the secondary. What doesn’t match well for them is their offensive line vs the Eagles front 7. It could be a painful day for Carson Palmer who is currently second in the league in passing yards. He’ll look for Larry Fitzgerald and Jaron Brown who has been increasing his workload week on week recently (look for a yardage bet). The Eagles ran all over the Chargers last week and with Pat Peterson probably shutting down Jeffery this week should do the same. Looks like Smallwood is probably out so look for a price on Clement – Eagles – Annoyingly there isn’t a great price on Corey Clement, 11/4 seems to be the best on him and I was hoping for higher. Jaron Brown o46.5 rec. yards – 4/5 (365) and Andre Ellington o46.5 rush and rec. yards 5/6 (PP) both look good in a game that the Cardinals will have to throw the ball which leads to the Eagles weakness.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh

Will the real Jacksonville Jaguars please stand up? If you follow patterns this should be a comfortable win for them seeing as they seem to win every other week. Unfortunately Leveon Bell is likely to ruin that though, the Jags have the best pass defence in the league, but aren’t great vs the run. Lev is a great player though so I’ll be looking at 2+ for him and 150 combined yards. Big Ben is done. There, I said it. Even at home he hasn’t looked great this season and this isn’t the week he changes that (hopefully) Lenny Fournette has scored every game so far this season and is the Jaguar to watch here. Steelers win and cover the spread – Not imaginative, but Lev Bell anytime TD – 8/11 (365 and Sky) – 2+ TDs – 4/1 (365)

Seattle at LA Rams

This game finished 9-6 last year. Thanks Jeff Fisher. This year however is going to be a little different. The Rams have fully convinced me in the games they’ve had so far, they’ve been great fun to watch and Todd Gurley is better than ever in both the rush and passing game. They’ve been exploiting matchups with Cooper Kupp or Sammy Watkins and frankly looked great. The Seahawks finally blew up last week but against a poor Colts team and it took till the second half. They could make this a shootout, or they could be horrible. The Seahawks have choices to make at RB. I personally think it will be Thomas Rawls replacing Chris Carson, but who knows with these guy. It’s the first time in 6 years that the Seahawks are underdogs in this fixture, but I’ll happily take them getting points. I have a feeling that Thomas Rawls will get the start for the Seahawks, but it’s just an inkling more than anything I want to put money on. The annoying thing is that the Rams have the worst run defence in the league, so whomever does start should get into the endzone.

Baltimore at Oakland

My God. Horrible. Just horrible. A Ravens team who are filling my expectations to a tee this year. Good defence, awful offence. Hey… I got something right! Flacco sucks, the passing game sucks. I do like Alex Collins though. The Raiders… God, well they struggled to score with Derek Carr there, he’s out for at least this week which means EJ Manuel, last week when he entered the game there was a lot of Jared Cook. The Ravens are also poor at defending the tight end, look for odds and yards on him. Because it’s in Oakland I’ll take the Raiders, won’t be touching the spread though. This game should go unders although it’s a low line already I just can’t see many scores from either side – Raiders – Jared Cook o35.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (PP) – Anytime TD – 11/4 (Unibet)

Summary of bets –

  • Charles Clay o43.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (PP) – 4pts – NAP
  • Austin Sefarian-Jenkins anytime – 11/4 (365) – 2pts
  • ASJ 2 or more – 25/1 (365) – 1pt
  • Trent Taylor anytime TD – 13/2 (PP) – 0.5pt
  • Jaron Brown o46.5 rec. yards – 4/5 (365) – 1pt
  • Andre Ellington o46.5 rush and rec. yards 5/6 (PP) – 1pt
  • Lev Bell anytime TD – 8/11 (365 and Sky) – 4pts – NB
  • Leveon Bell 2+ TDs – 4/1 (365) – 1pt
  • Jared Cook o35.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (PP) – 1pt
  • Jared Cook Anytime TD – 11/4 (Unibet) – 1pt

Total outlay – 16.5 (23.5 with the televised matches)

All on Spreadsheet here

Good Luck if you’re following.

 

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