SNF – Week 7 – US Games

Tampa Bay at Buffalo

Jameis Winston should be OK to start this game after injuring his shoulder last week. Despite them not having the best of starts to the season (their third consecutive year starting 2-3) they rank 3rd in yards gained. With Doug Martin back they’re looking to get more run heavy but the game went away from them last week. The Bills are coming off of their bye week, but will still be missing Jordan Matthews and Charles Clay, leaving Zay Jones to catch passes? Well, Nick O’Leary should be the tight end who comes in, he went over 50 yards in the game he came in against the Bengals and I would expect around that again so look for a yardage line on him. At home, I think I’ll take BUFFALO but wouldn’t put any money on anything there. Looks like Buffalo will be 3 point favourites, I won’t be going for that. Nick O’Leary o34.5 rec. yards (PP) – 3pts

Carolina at Chicago

The Bears can beat teams from the AFC North, they can’t beat anyone else. They have been in close matches and it seems that with Mitchell Trubisky in there they’ll just be running the ball over and over. Howard this last week got 36 carries last week. Trubisky completed 8 passes… In an overtime game. The Panthers will be looking to get back on track and try to stamp their mark on the NFC South, they have zero run game at the moment which is a big worry for them though. While the Bears are good at home, I can’t not back the PANTHERS. And I would probably take them on the handicap at -3 too.

Tennessee at Cleveland

Well… The Browns. Are they looking to get the #1 pick again next year? They’re yet to win and look worse every week at the moment. They gave Kevin Hogan a go at starting last week. That was a mistake, he was awful. So much so he’s now #3 on the depth chart and Kizer is back to starting this week! It’s a mess. Last week they didn’t target the middle of the field, despite the fact that Seth Devalve and David Njoku are probably their most reliable pass catchers. Surely that will change this week against an awful Titans defence. The Titans welcomed back Mariota, and despite it being a short week for them he should be more mobile this week. Until the Browns win a game they’re not getting a look on my bets, even if they were 10 point dogs. They’re currently 5.5 which has come in from 7. TITANS win and cover the 5.5 points spread. – Jonnu Smith anytime – 5/1 (365) – 1pt

New Orleans at Green Bay

Aaron Rodgers apparently made a 12 point difference to this spread. The Packers were -6.5 on the look ahead line, they’re now 5.5 underdogs! I will be taking the Packers on this spread, at home, in Lambeau, crappy weather… Yes please. Brett Hundley really isn’t a bad QB from what I’ve seen in pre-season and he’s had 3 years learning the system there. There is obviously a drop off from Rodgers but it’s not as extreme as it seems to have been suggested. The Saints have been very impressive since week 3. Their defence has come on a lot, despite allowing 38 points last week, they got 3 INTs from an injured Matt Stafford. They’re facing an injury hit Packers team who are missing a lot of players in the secondary as well as their QB. I can’t believe I’m describing the Packers at home as a risk, but PACKERS and obviously that will cover the spread (Which seems like it will drift before kick off making it even more tempting). TY Montgomery anytime – 5/2 (365) – 2pts

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

Jacoby Brissett is doing OK. That’s it, he’s all right, he’s fun to watch, he moves around a lot, but he’s not going to get this team to the playoffs, and with Luck again having a set back in training, I’m starting to doubt if we’ll see him this year. TY Hilton has done well at home, they’ve been his two blow up games. But this week he faces the best pass defence in the league. I would be shocked if he went off again this week. If the Jags get ahead they’ll win the game, if they fall behind and have to throw, they’ll lose. However, it’s an odd numbered week, so the JAGUARS win (and therefore cover the spread) Look for D/ST TD – 7/4 (365) – 1pt

NY Jets at Miami

It’s all about ASJ, he’s been the most targeted tight end in the league since he came into the squad in week 3. I shall be on him to score again this week after giving it a miss last week. The Jets actually look like a functional team, they will have Forte playing again this week so that’s the McGuire experiment finished for now. Powell will possibly be back too. The Dolphins are the worst 3-2 team in the history of football (definitely proven fact) They some how came back from 17-0 down last week to win 20-17. That was mainly due to their defensive line, the offense ran generally through Ajayi, but Cutler did keep things moving as well. Surely the Jets can’t go 2-0 over their divisional rivals? I just can’t pick the Jets. MIAMI – ASJ Anytime TD – 11/4 (365) – 2pts

Baltimore at Minnesota

The Ravens are awful. They’re horrible to watch. This could be the lowest scoring game of the week and personally I don’t see how the Ravens don’t get blown out, they just don’t have any ability to score. Saying that, I do like Alex Collins, they should really give him red zone work. The Vikings are one of the best defences in the league especially at home. Even with their best QB, WR and RB out of the game they should have too much for the Ravens. VIKINGS (and to beat the spread) Alex Collins o43.5 rush yards – 5/6 (PP) – 1pt

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Is Mike Mitchell the dirtiest player in the league? Well, as a Bengals fan I’m officially not allowed to call anyone else dirty because we have Vontaze Burfict. But somehow Mitchell avoided a ban despite being fined to 2 separate incidents in the Chiefs game last week, apparently the totting up procedure only applies to certain players in certain teams. Anyway. 2 of the top 5 defences in the league face off against each other. They know each other well and this game will be great to watch. The fixture has more Personal fouls than any other over the last 5 years. Unfortunately It’s Dalton against a regular opponent at night. He’s not going to win. STEELERS

Dallas at San Francisco

Everyone else will tell you how unlucky the niners have been so I won’t bother. They’re starting their rookie this week CJ Beathard. He looked adequate last week and should come on with a week working with the first team. He and Tight end George Kittle played together in college, so I’ll be looking at his yards and TD price (3/1). Dallas should be able to take advantage of a poor secondary, Dez Bryant especially, he’s the second highest targeted player in the redzone this year. He’ll score this week. I don’t think this will be kept within 3 points. DALLAS win. Dez Bryant o57.5 rec. yards (SkyBet) – 2pts


Denver at LA Chargers

Denver are beaten up and without Emmanuel Sanders last week Demaryius Thomas racked up 133 yards, expect him to go near that again this week. Also have a look on prices for Bennie Fowler and Jordan Taylor in place of Sanders as endzone threats, Cecil Lammey the Broncos beat writer thinks that Taylor is the better look for TD. The Chargers are looking better by the week, although they go back home to take up their homefield disadvantage – There will be more Orange there than anything else. I hope that the Chargers can keep up their recent win streak, Hunter Henry is finally involved and he should have a game against a Denver team who should shut down everyone else in the passing attack. Their rubbish at home, but CHARGERS and to cover the spread. – Hunter Henry anytime TD – 5/2 (Betway) or 9/4 (365) – 2pts

Seattle at NY Giants

Tight ends score against the Giants. Jimmy Graham is supposedly one of the better ones in the league. The Seahawks do better in the second half of the season and while we’re not that far yet, they have had their bye now and will look to push on, there’s no point worrying who their running back is though it will drive you mad trying to figure it out on a weekly basis! The Giants somehow won a game last week after letting someone else call their plays, although it may have been forced on them by injuries it seems that running the ball and controlling the clock might be a good idea after all. SEAHAWKS and they’ll cover the spread – Jimmy Graham anytime TD – 12/5 (PP) – 2pts

Atlanta at New England

This should be the highest total of the week, The Falcons should be smarting after the Superbowl last year, anyone remember what happened there? 28-3. And then somehow throwing away a 17 point lead last week. Every QB this year has gone over 300 yards against the Patriots and Ryan is still a very good one. Julio is still their no.1 receiver despite for some reason not eve being targeted in the red zone. The Patriots are always a tough one to call with so many players to throw to and to run the ball with. Despite the fact the James White killed the Falcons in the Superbowl I am leaning towards it being a Deon Lewis game, he’s been increasing his snaps each week and has looked good running the ball. I’ve said it before, but I can’t pick against the PATRIOTS – Lewis anytime TD – 5/2 – 1pt – 2 or more TDs – 25/1 – 0.5pt (Both 365) Matt Ryan o279.5 passing yards (SkyBet) – 2pts

Washington at Philadelphia

Game of the Week? 3-2 vs 5-1 in an NFC East match up. It should be a great match. The Eagles were hugely impressive beating the Panthers last week, and they seem to be living up to the sharp money that came for them before the season started, their front 7 on defence is great, they have solid offensive line and Carson Wentz has come on leaps and bounds in his second season, even Nelson Agholar has been able to catch some passes. Weird times. Kirk Cousins has been spreading the ball around for the Redskins, none of his WRs have been putting up any kind of figures, but he’s currently 6th among QBs. Jordan Reed is another week fitter and should see more of the ball this week. “Not so fat” Rob Kelley should be back too to bolster their running game which Samaje Perine hasn’t managed to take over. Very tough to call, I’m going to take the home team (Thank me later Gman) – REDSKINS

Summary –

  • Nick O’Leary o34.5 rec. yards (PP) – 3pts
  • Jonnu Smith anytime TD – 5/1 (365) – 1pt
  • TY Montgomery anytime – 5/2 (365) – 2pts
  • D/ST TD in the Jags v Colts game – 7/4 (365) – 1pt
  • ASJ Anytime TD – 11/4 (365) – 2pts
  • Alex Collins o43.5 rush yards – 5/6 (PP) – 1pt
  • Dez Bryant o57.5 rec. yards (SkyBet) – 2pts
  • Hunter Henry anytime TD – 5/2 (Betway) or 9/4 (365) – 2pts
  • Jimmy Graham anytime TD – 12/5 (PP) – 2pts
  • Deon Lewis anytime TD – 5/2 – 1pt – 2 or more TDs – 25/1 – 0.5pt (Both 365)
  • Matt Ryan o279.5 passing yards – 10/11 (SkyBet) – 2pts

Total outlay – 19.5 points.

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