MNF – Week 7 – #HTTR @ #FlyEaglesFly

Washington Redskins (+5) at Philadelphia Eagles o/u – 49

Game of the Week? 3-2 vs 5-1 in an NFC East match up. It should be a great match as the Eagles look to sweep the Redskins after beating them 30-17 in the opening game of the season in DC, the arrival of Nelson Agholar!

The Eagles were hugely impressive beating the Panthers last week, and they seem to be living up to the sharp money that came for them before the season started, money that I’ll be honest, I didn’t see coming to fruition. I wasn’t sure why everyone was so confident in their chances, seems I was utterly wrong!

Their front 7 on the defence is great and Fletcher Cox seems to playing at a Defensive MVP level, he caused havoc in the Panthers line last week pushing 300lb offensive linemen back into Cam to cause turnovers, and despite the fact that they’ve been a little beaten up in the secondary they have still be getting it together. The pressure they’re getting means that QBs haven’t been able to have the time to find any open pass catchers.

Carson Wentz has had a cracking sophomore season so far, mobile and accurate on the run he’s been finding receivers at all levels of the field. He’s averaging 264 yards per game averaging 7.65 yards per pass. A lot of that has been to Zach Ertz who has the most receptions on the season from Wentz although the Panthers did a good job of shutting down his yards last week, he was 100% on Catches/TDs. With 2 TDs from his 2 catches. He’s averaging 67.5 yards per game (about 6 catches) and that’s right around where they’ve set his line, all bookies offering about 65 yards, and unsurprisingly they’ve also set his receptions to 5.5.

Alshon Jeffery is second in targets this season despite coming up against some very good cornerbacks. He could get away with it this week as the Redskins are without Josh Norman and could be without Bashaud Breeland as well. Betvictor have gone the lowest as always but they’re a joke of a company who won’t allow you to win a couple of bets, and while the others have reputations for closing down winning accounts I haven’t got that far with them, he’s 49.5 yards at Betway (4/5) 54.5 (10/11 on Skybet), a line he’s beaten on 3 of the 6 occasions. Nelson Agholar has been a revelation this season after not being able to catch a ball at all last year, he’s actually beaten the mark the bookies have set of 48.5 on 365 (5/6) or 49.5 (10/11 on Skybet) of in 4 of his 6 games including the first matchup between these teams where he went for 86 yards. So that leaves me with a conundrum. Which do you take? In theory with a softer cornerback set to go against it could make more sense to go for Jeffery. On the other hand Agholar has a year longer with Wentz and maybe he’s just his favoured receiver, he does seem to have been the one who gets free when Wentz scrambles.

They’ve managed to get the run going in recent weeks as well, after a game with 0 for 0 and 0 for 0, with a total of Zero. He’s topped 67 yards every week. A line of 56.5 at Skybet seems reasonable, although the Redskins are only allowing 88 yards per game. That wouldn’t leave much for Corey Clement or possibly Wendell Smallwood should he be fit to play tonight.

ap-nelson-agholor-good


The Redskins have been pretty good and should have been unbeaten since losing that opener, Josh Doctson should have caught the winner against the Chiefs in the game they lost, dropping the ball in the end zone.

Kirk Cousins has been spreading the ball around for the Redskins, none of his WRs have been putting up any kind of figures, but he’s currently 6th among QBs in fantasy points. He’s averaging 222 per game, and threw for 240 against the Eagles in their first matchup. They’ve set his yards much higher than this, and it’s a game I would expect them to have to throw the ball in, the Eagles probably won’t be slow in putting up points so they’ll have to try and keep up, add to that the fact the Eagles are best in the league against the running back and you’ve got a game where passing will be required!

Now I say none of his WRs have put up huge numbers, that’s true, but his pass catching back however has been smashing it. Chris Thompson has 340 yards in the air so far this season despite catching the ball generally around the line of scrimmage, he’s great to watch when he gets in space. The season long figure is skewed due to 150 and 105 yard games though, so it’s tough to call whether he’ll beat the 62.5 combined line that’s been set for him. He’s not done much on the ground tbf and averaged a measly 2 yards per carry vs the 49ers last week. Their running back corps hasn’t been good all round, Notasfat Rob Kelley has been banged up and is again questionable tonight, I thought Samaje Perine was going to come in and do well but he’s been fairly blunt when running the ball in Kelleys absence, averaging just 3 ypc on the season and killing the 275/1 I got on him for OROY.

Terrelle Pryor has been a bit of a failure for them so far this season, he just doesn’t seem to have a connection with Cousins, he’s got a 66 and a 70 yard game, but the other 3 have been under 31. The issue he that I can’t take the unders on him as he does get down the field and has been close to making catches when down the field. To be honest, despite the stats I am tempted to take the overs at 45.5 on Skybet, that’s a low total for him. One man who I’ve been hugely let down by in fantasy has been Jamison Crowder, everything in pre-season suggested he was due a big role in this offense. I tipped him vs KC…He finished with -7 yards. Safe to say he’s out of my trust circle at the moment! Josh Doctson does seem to be getting more involved in the offense recently but I can’t be taking him set at 47.5 on PP.

They have Jordan Reed back at tight end, he’s one of the best in the league when he’s fit, unfortunately that doesn’t happen often. He played vs the 49ers last week which isn’t the toughest matchup and only got 37 yards, he’s a redzone machine usually but is yet to score at the moment, 12/5 is a decent anytime price for him and it would be typical for him to get 2 or more in prime-time when I don’t think he’s going to score. Vernon Davis has also been kept in the game since Reeds return and has a couple of long runs after catches in the last two weeks, 69 and 51 yards.

The Eagles have done well getting pressure on the QB, but have been conceding a lot of yards and 2 TDs per game at home this season, so there should be something there for the Redskins pass catchers. GMan from the OLBG blog has gone for Josh Doctson at 10/3 and he’s a Redskins fan, I wouldn’t put anyone off going him. Vernon Davis and Kirk Cousins at 6/1 (skybet) and 7/1 (ladbrokes) are tempting at the prices, Cousins got in last week though so they may be watching for him this.

Skybet has their 3 for 2 again, and I’m a sucker for a free £5 bet. I have hit with a few of the short odds ones to get my free fiver to lose with. I have been liking the each team 1+ FG in each half bet, which has been at 11/2, 7/1 but a measly 5/2 this week, admittedly they do have 2 of the better kickers in the league this year playing so that’s probably why it’s pretty short. – In fact, having looked through there’s not much I actually want to play there, I’ve requested one of my own but don’t think it’ll be huge odds. “Agholar, Jeffery and Pryor o50 rec yards, Blount o65 rush yards.” Is the one I’ve requested, I’d imagine it’ll be 5/1 at best. The usually short price them though, so possibly 3s?!

I will be on… (both skybet)

  • A.Jeffery ,N.Agholor & T.Pryor All 50+ Receiving Yards & L.Blount 57+ Rushing Yards – 9/1 – 2pts
  • Agholar and Reed BPTS – 7/1 – 1pt

Ok, got a nice price on my Request a bet so I’m on that. Will probably find myself another RaB and then use the freebie on some high odds

Just the 3pts for the night.

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