Week 8 – Sunday game briefs and picks

Week 8, nearly halfway through the regular season! And yet t’s still as tough to predict as week 1! It’s been a crazy year. I’ll try and have another look at the season long bets after this weekend to see how we’re doing with them all, I think most are still in with a half-decent chance. A lot of teams on bye this week so fewer games to choose from

IF YOU’RE IN THE UK, REMEMBER IT’S ALL AN HOUR EARLY FOR THIS WEEK! 1700, 2005, 0030 GAMES!

Oakland at Buffalo

Intriguing. The Raiders finally clicked last week, is Amari Cooper back? He actually caught some passes last week, although still around 60% completion. They look like they’ll be without Lynch who’s suspended (at time of writing) I believe it will be DeAndre Washington getting more carries in a committee with Jalen Richard, with a little Cordarelle Patterson mixed in. But that’s just a hunch. The Bills have been solid, especially at home, and McCoy finally broke his TD duck on the season getting 2, he plays better at home so wouldn’t shock me if he scored again. The passing game looked better with Deonte Thompson picked up off the street linking up well down the field. Rookie Zay Jones hasn’t started well though, 7 receptions from 32 targets. Very tough. But travelling west to east is usually a bad thing – BILLS – I think I’ll be going back to the well with Nick O’Leary here, o32.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (365) I also like Tyrod Taylor o28.5 rush yards – 5/6 (PP) – 2 pts on each.

Indianapolis at Cincinnati

The Colts are decimated everywhere. O-Line, D-Line, CB… every area suffered last week. Brissett was sacked 10 times, leading to WR TY Hilton calling out the O-Line. Their only bright spark for the season was the performances of Malik Hooker – He’s blown his MCL and ACL. Oh dear. The Bengals are 10 point favourites. 10 POINTS! I would hope they’ve learnt from last week and will feed Mixon for the WHOLE game instead of one half, however after his little outburst in the week I wouldn’t be shocked to see Marvin Lewis bench him out of spite and give the workload to Hill and Gio. Mixon looked darn good in the half he was allowed to play though! AJ Green is brilliant when targeted, and against this defence he should feast. Their pass rush could have a field day here, they’ve created the third highest amount of pressure in the league with 32% of plays having the opposition QB under pressure. Against this sieve it could be another painful day for Brissett. – WHODEY – CINCINNATI – Realistically this should be a huge game for Dalton, Green, Mixon, LaFell, Kroft, basically anyone on the Bengals offense. John Ross should be playing as well, he can burn the Colts down the field, so the toughest choice here is trying to figure out what to go for! – With it possibly being a bit of a blowout the odds on everyone are really short, you’re probably either looking at Both players to score on Skybet. or I’ll be having 1pt on Alex Erickson at 14/1 on Skybet he’s down at 5/2 on 365, around 13/2 elsewhere. Total sacks o4.5 – 8/11 – 3pts (365) If you wanted one from the Colts then Marlon Mack is probably a good bet at 3/1.

usa_today_9678298-0

LA Chargers at New England

The Chargers have won 3 in a row now, even one at “home” and they look pretty good, Hunter Henry finally seems to have that tight end role to himself. Back to back games of over 70 yards seem to show that anyway, it’s about time! Mike Williams’ return spelt the end for Dontrelle Inman who has joined the Bears, he was down the pecking order anyway and Williams has been increasing snaps since he was back. It turns out that Brandin Cooks isn’t a one trick pony after all, he’s 3rd in the league in receiving yards despite being in this crowded pass catching group. It seems like Lewis is taking over in the run game to the detriment of Mike Gillislee. As always back the PATRIOTS on the moneyline but I like the Chargers +7.5 – Tough one to pick anything from with the uncertainty of who will be in control of the NE backfield. Which is frustrating as the Chargers run defence is not very good this year! They are second in the league vs the Tight end, but this is Gronk, and he’ll do what he wants. I was on Lewis last week, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get a couple this week when I’m not backing him. 12/1 for 2 or more. In fact, he’s gone over 50 yards in the last 3 games, so a line of 47.5 (10/11 at Skybet) is reasonable (no yardage line on 365 for some reason)

Chicago at New Orleans

The Bears have put in some good defensive performances on the road, but they’ll need more than 4 completions from Mitchell Trubisky to keep up with Drew Brees. It’s been all Jordan Howard since Mitch came in. They did bring in a pass catcher this week, Inman from the Chargers, but John Fox has been loving no passing, all run and solid defence, so I would imagine he’d try that again. BUT. You don’t stop the Saints in the dome. I’d be amazed if Brees doesn’t put up 24+ points again this week. Ted Ginn is a man on the up he’s been catching a lot recently, famed for having the drops he’s caught 11 in a row and gone for over 200 in his last 2 games. SAINTS and probably covering the spread too. Nothing on this game from me.

Atlanta at NY Jets

The Falcons could be 0-6 if things had gone a little differently. They scraped a win in Chicago, injuries killed the Packers and 3 inches stopped the Lions. They’re suffering from losing Shanahan as the play calling is looking decidedly dodgy recently. They did finally give Julio a target in the red zone though! The Jets have been surprisingly good on defence, and the Falcons aren’t great vs pass catching backs which is the Jets wheelhouse with Forte and Powell. McCown isn’t playing badly either! Can I really back the Jets?! – I feel I’ve got to stay in the flames with ASJ really – Austin Seferian-Jenkins TD – 5/2 (PP) – 2pts – The same bookies are also best priced on Bilal Powell at 5/2 as well. My worry here is that the Falcons are on everyone’s radar as a down team at the moment, they’ve still got the talent there they just need to sort things out, if they do that then there’s no reason they can’t handle the Jets, the money has come for them too, the handicap has gone from 4 to 6.5 points now. I’d be tempted to take +7 on the Jets if he hits that later on.

San Francisco at Philadelphia

The 49ers suffered a long overdue blowout last week falling quickly behind to Zekes early double which effectively killed them. They had been playing well enough without getting over that hump, not much to say about them really! Beatheard didn’t have the greatest game under centre, but he did run in a TD last week. The Eagles were the popular pick of a lot of “sharps” in the preseason and it looks like they were correct so far! The loss of Pro Bowl LT Jason Peters could be big for them, but Wentz has shown so far this season that he’s a magician back there with a hell of an arm, and he’s now the favourite for the MVP in his second year! MY NAP – The EAGLES win, but I wouldn’t go near a 13 pt handicap! Teams have been able to run all over the 49ers this year, and they have the worst group of cornerbacks in the league. Could be a good time for Jeffrey to get a TD as he finally gets a break from top-rated CBs. – Again all prices on this game are a little short for me tbh, I can’t take the handicap, or the total. I’m tempted with u70 yards (skybet) for Zach Ertz, the Niners are 2nd in the league vs the Tight end position, but he plays it differently to most, so I’ll give it a miss. Wendell Smallwood is the other I was looking at for a bigger price, but I was hoping at closer to 5s than 2s. Longshot here – Mack Hollins anytime – 17/2 (PP) – He scored last week and seems like he may be getting the WR3 downfield threat instead of Torrey Smith for now.

Carolina at Tampa Bay

A big divisional matchup in the NFC South the Panthers slipped up again last week with Cam throwing 2 INTs and essentially costing his team the game. He’s created himself some drama this week by walking out of a press conference with a child-like tantrum, probably in the hope it means he gets his Sh*t together and plays well this week and against a Tampa side who rank one of the worst on defence that could happen, who also have injury concerns to the corners they do have, they concede a lot to outside receivers, so that should mean a big game for Benjamin. The Buccs need to get the win to keep in the race for the division and help me keep my Superbowl bet on them alive. They’ve seemingly got it together on offense and have a lot for Jameis to work with. I think i’ll take the BUCCS at home, and go for the OVERs in a double with the Bengals game. This should be high scoring, Kelvin Benjamin and Cameron Brate – 7/1 (Skybet) – 2pts – I think that’s a huge price, Brate didn’t score last week as Howard got them all, but he did for 4 in a row before that and had one knocked out of his hands in the end zone last week.

Houston at Seattle

Is Deshaun Watson any good? Obviously he’s looked amazing so far, but this is a big test, the Seahawks have got it together on defence. Approximately 135% of Will Fullers catches have been TDs so far this year, he’ll do well to continue that here. Fortunately for the Seahawks the Texans have a load of injuries in their defensive line. That helps the Seahawks as their offensive line is garbage. Russell Wilson looked back to form connecting with Doug Baldwin last week and it’s probably the start of their second half rise as they do most years! I hope so anyway, I just picked up Baldwin in dynasty. Anyway, SEAHAWKS win. – Nothing here for me, I did look at Wilson rushing yards at 20.5 on PP, but he was more of a pocket passer last week in a good looking win. He may well beat that line as he did in the first 4 games of the season, but that put me off.

Dallas at Washington – Sky game at 2025

Another beauty in the NFC East, the Cowboys have been scoring well all season averaging 27.5 per game so far, Dak proving that he’s pretty darn good. He’s a confident sod and doesn’t mind running in the odd TD either, Dez does well against lesser corners, so if Josh Norman misses again look at his yards/anytime price. The Redskins could do with a win after losing in division last week, but Cousins is looking good again and Josh Doctson seems to have replaced Terrelle Pryor who’s been a bit of a bust so far this season, Doctson was on the field for 85% of snaps last week so he may have finally arrived! Sorry Gman – DALLAS – Again, not much value here really, Zeke is 5/6 to score anytime on Skybet, that’s actually a pretty good price given what he did last week. Josh Norman should be back for the redskins and he’ll be all over Dez Bryant for most of the game I’d imagine. These regular opponent divisional games are usually pretty tight lower-scoring affairs. As always was hoping for a decent price on someone and it was useless, Doctson a best price of 3/1, Jordan Reed would be the guy to look for on the Redskins team, but he’s the lowest price of their options, at 7/4 on 10bet, 13/8 best priced of the main stream sites. He did score 2 against them last year after separating his shoulder, so he does do well against the Cowboys. He’s 12s for 2 or more on 365. If I was going to have one on this game, It would probably be Dak Prescott anytime TD at 10/3. He scored in both games vs the Redskins last season, so I’ve convinced myself to have 2pts on him.

Pittsburgh at Detroit – 0030 –  Skysports

The Steelers, away from home, after beating an unbeaten team and the main challenge in the AFC North? I smell a trap game, or maybe that’s just wishful thinking. I’m still not sure on Big Ben, he is more game manager at the moment than much else, though he did make some great throws last week. 30+ carries for Lev will beat most teams, add 12 targets a week for Antonio Brown and the odd catch for Juju and that’s enough for them due to their very impressive defence. The Lions are coming off a bye and I’d hope they’d figured out some way of scoring against this team. They will be without Golden Tate so the Jones bros. will have to step up, TJ and Marvin, as well as the possibly returning Kenny Golladay for a downfield threat. The Steelers lose games like this – LIONS – Honestly, from a betting stand point there’s not a lot to look at here, I am tempted with u45.5 but I went under on the Lions last game and they were in a 90 point game. The Steelers only have 3 guys I would consider scoring, they’re all short priced, Juju best priced at 2s. The Lions, I don’t want to take any of their passing game against these Steelers, and while I love Abdullah, their offensive line isn’t good enough to give him the space to do anything. Zach Zenner at 17/2 was my only little look, but not for me. I would have liked a look at the total sacks, but it’s not available on 365. So… Nothing on this for me.

 

Summary –

  • Nick O’Leary – o32.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (365) – 2pts
  • Tyrod Taylor o28.5 rush yards – 5/6 (PP) – 2pts
  • Alex Erickson anytime – 14/1 (Skybet) – 1pt
  • Ind v Cin total sacks – o4.5 – 4/6 (365) – 3pt
  • Austin Seferian-Jenkins anytime – 5/2 (PP) – 2pts
  • Panthers and Bengals games – OVER 46 and 42.5 at time of writing – 2.72/1 – 2pts
  • Kelvin Benjamin and Cameron Brate BPTS – 7/1 (Skybet) – 2pts
  • Mack Hollins anytime – 17/2 (PP) – 1pt
  • Dak Prescott anytime – 10/3 (365) – 2pts

Total outlay – 17pts.

Personally I’ve also gone for a stupid Trixie on some BPTS bets at huge odds! Fingers crossed for that one! Getting 2 players scoring is tough enough, let alone 6, so I won’t be posting it here, but it does include the one posted above!

 

Good luck if you’re following anything and remember its 1700 in the UK this weekend!!!!!

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑