Week 13 – Briefs and tips

Minnesota at Atlanta

Opening with a cracker, the Vikings travel south with the second best record in the NFC to face an Atlanta team which is #RisingUp. I’m actually pretty keen on Atlanta now that they seem to be clicking, they have the division in their hands because they still have to play every division rival including the Saints twice. If they keep targeting Julio as they have done in recent weeks then they’re a match for anybody. Saying all that, the Vikings are great at the moment as well, Case Keenum was named the NFC player of the month and if he keeps up that form then they may well win on the road. A very tough one to start the predictions, but I’ll side with the home team, I shall be avoiding the handicap, but I would lean to the overs, even with it being high – ATLANTA – Can’t actually find a whole lot to bet on here, as we said last week Thielen has had 5 or more receptions in every game he’s played, the line is at 5.5 (8/11) so it’s a little risky imo. For what it’s worth you’ve got to imagine that Xavier Rhodes will travel with Julio so I wouldn’t go backing overs on Julio although Rhodes did get killed by his long-lost cousin Marvin Jones last game. It should mean more for Mo Sanu, he’s at 49.5 which is a little more tempting for me.

Detroit at Baltimore

I respect Matt Stafford, do I respect the Lions? Does anyone? They’re an above average team who never seem to really get anywhere, or do anything. We all know Stafford leads 4th quarter comebacks, but that wouldn’t be needed if they weren’t always trailing by then! There was a stat out this week that they’ve only had (I think) 3 100 yard rushing games in the time he’s been QB. That’s atrocious and puts a lot of pressure on him! The Ravens are what they are, Flacco is one of the worst, if not the worst, #1 QBs in the league in a whole lot of categories. I’ve decided that the NFC is far superior to the AFC in most games, do I keep faith in my boy, Danny Woodhead?! 5/2 is tempting – LIONS – The Lions have conceded a TD to the Running back for 5 games in a row, Alex Collins comes in with a knock but seems likely to play, ah sod it, i’m sticking with Woodhead until he scores – Danny Woodhead anytime TD – 5/2 (365) – 2pt

New England at Buffalo

All this “The Bills are in a playoff race” stuff is ridiculous. They’re not, they’re in with as much chance as the Bengals. Zero. The Patriots are going to comfortably win. Probably by 1 point more than the handicap is down to 8 from 9. They’ll win by 9. Book it. – PATRIOTS – Patriots -8 (1/3 treble)

San Francisco at Chicago

Jimmy Garoppolo is apparently the king of football. The amount of hype behind this kid is ridiculous, he played half a game for the best coached team in football (admittedly very well) and now everyone has gone batshit crazy. He may well be good, but we’ve yet to see that and he’s playing in a poor team so it won’t be easy for him! He does face a decent Bears defence who play better at home. The Bears however face statistically one of the worst defences so we could see good games from Cohen and Howard, and maybe even Mitch Trubisky. Line was +5 before the Jimmy G announcement, now down to +3 so the money is coming for Garoppolo. I’m not so sure – BEARS – I have a theory about backup QBs… They throw to the guys they’ve been playing with in the second team in training, so the likes of whatshisface from last week and someguyoffthestreet may get a look in with Jimmy starting his first game, it’s just trying to figure out who his bestest buddy is from 3,000 miles away. Louis Murphy scored last week, he’s 7s. Kendrick Bourne had a mention a few weeks back you can get 10s on him. Obviously you could be boring and sensible and just go for Jordan Howard at 10/11, the Niners are one of the worst in most defensive areas. I like Adam Shaheen at 6/1 (PP) – 1pt

Tampa Bay at Green Bay

The battle of the Bays. Hundley played well against the Steelers for the first time since he took over from Rodgers. If they win here, they play the Browns next week, they could possibly have Rodgers back for a playoff run?! As it is, Davante Adams is the only trustworthy player in Green Bay, although Jamaal Williams is worth a look as well, Ty Montgomery is already declared out, and I doubt Aaron Jones will be back so the backfield is his. The Bucs welcome back Jameis Winston which should be good news for Mike Evans and Cameron Brate, Running back Doug Martin is out with concussion, Jacquizz Rodgers (5/2) will get the bulk of the carries although Peyton Barber (4/1) got the goal line carries last week and Charles Sims (9/2) will mix in as well – One of these will score today, but I’m not sure which one – BUT… The Bucs are missing their 2 best offensive line players which will be bad for the whole offense. Another tough one to call, I may well take the overs. Can’t imagine Tampa enjoying the trip from SW to the cold of Lambeau – GREEN BAY – Davante Adams o60.5 receiving yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2pts and Packers -2.5 (2/3 treble)

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Who would have thought the Jags would ever be a 2 score favourite?! I can’t back them at the price, although I wouldn’t be shocked to see them win 24-10 or something similar, a fairly low scoring game. Logic is usually to back the unders in a Jaguars game. I may well be doing that here. – JAGUARS – Dede Westbrook anytime TD – 3/1 (WillHill) – 2pts Marlon Mack is a decent price at 9/2 (PP) as well, I was hoping they had the sacks market on 365 for this game, it should go over 5.5 so if it pops up then it should happen.

Denver at Miami

REVEEEEEEENNNNNNNNNNNNNNNGE GAME!!!! For Adam Gase, Julius Thomas, and apparently the Dolphins have signed AJ Derby?! Who cares though, what a horrible horrible game. Broncos have lost 7 in a row, Dolphins 5. The Dolphins are ranked the worst team in the league by PFF. They’re clever. BRONCOS – Can I really back a team that’s lost 7 in a row who’s only 3 wins have come at home?! I probably shouldn’t but I think they’ll win. – I’m giving Devontae Booker anytime TD – 3/1 (Skybet) – 2pt one last go today. If he doesn’t score he’s added to the “he’s dead to me” list.

Kansas City at NY Jets

REVEEEEEEENNNNNNNNNNNNNNNGE GAME!!!! For Darrelle Revis… Oh no, hang on, the Jets are paying him $5.5m to play against them, I don’t think he has any need for revenge! Somehow the Jets are the better team of these two at the moment. Robby Anderson has scored in 5 consecutive games and Josh McCown loves throwing to him! the Jets have a surprisingly good defence, especially against the run. Personally I think the Jets should be favourites here. They’re not. JETS – I am surprised to see that the guy who’s scored in 5 consecutive games (6 TDs total) is still nearly 2/1 to score today – Robby Anderson anytime TD scorer – 7/4 – 2pts The one caveat is that he may draw Marcus Peters, but he’s done it against everyone recently so I’ll go for him again.

panthers-jets-football-51f2a867391a5c81

Houston at Tennessee

How can everyone else in the world see that DeMarco Murray needs a couple of weeks off and they should be giving Derrick Henry a full game or two to show what he can do? The guy is a beast. He could actually give me something to watch in this game, but I’m sure Murray will get the bulk of the play once more and carry on his ~2 ypc average. Joy. I will happily admit that DeAndre Hopkins is amazing. He’s been topping 100 yards per game with a bum at QB, he’s great to watch too. I will side with the home team, but would probably take the Texans getting 7 on the handicap – TITANS – I’m with @rfltips on this one and going for 1st half team FGs – Texans o0.5 – 6/5 (365)

Cleveland at LA Chargers

The Browns have won 1 game in 26. That was against the Chargers! So I’ve got to back the Brow….. I’m not falling for that again. Everyone else will tell you how Josh Gordon is going to be amazing especially after all the talk from Hue Jackson during the week. Hue is a liar. He always lies in press conferences. He’ll be using Gordon as a decoy, Corey Coleman could have a good game because of it. The Chargers are my pick for the division so I’ve got to take them here, they’ve just got far too much talent and everyone should know by now that I love me some Phillip Rivers. – CHARGERS – Any Defensive/Special Team TD – 7/4 (365) – 1pt

LA Rams at Arizona

This will be closer than people think, it’s still a divisional clash which are generally closer than expected despite the fact that the Rams have been by far the more impressive team this season. Robert Woods is out again, so I would expect Cooper Kupp to have another good game and a little Josh Reynolds to be mixed in again especially with Patrick Peterson probably travelling with Sammy Watkins. The Cardinals may be without Adrian Peterson who has a neck injury, he’d be a big loss as the Rams are worse against the run than the pass. Blaine Gabbert has played pretty well for the Cardinals since he came in and he has a connection with Ricky Seals-Jones, 6’5″ 240lb WR converted to TE. He’s scored 3 in 2 games. As with the Texans above, I will probably take the Cardinals +7 on the handicap, but the straight up winner should be the – RAMS – A long shot, but with AP carrying a neck injury DJ Foster – 6/1 (365) – 1pt could be a decent bet. Ricky Seals-Jones is at 4/1 on there as well if you fancy him to continue his run of TDs.

NY Giants at Oakland

Geno Smith starts for the Giants. – RAIDERS – I may add a little more to this in-depth analysis. The Raiders have both of their main WRs out of the this game, Cooper with concussion and Crabtree is suspended after his scuffle with prize-winning-chain-stealing-shitcunt Aqib Talib. He’s a fucking prick. So they’ll need to throw to someone, I was looking at Cordarelle Patterson as that guy because he can mix in with the run game as well, he’s the shortest priced at 23/10 though, Seth Roberts gets a lot of red-zone targets, he’s 11/4 on Ladbrokes, but you can get Johnny Holton at 8/1 on SportingBet at the moment, that’s a mis-price, he’s a best of 5/2 elsewhere. Marshawn Lynch seemed to be the main beneficiary of Cooper and Crabtree missing out last week, he’s Evens to score this week. Can’t go for anything on the Giants with Geno in there. He’s not as bad as everyone makes out, but they’re a mess.

Carolina at New Orleans

Game of the week! What a cracker this should be. Kamara and Ingram are on course for 3,000 yards between them, their passing game is there if needed and they could well have won against the Rams last week. I actually think this will be a tougher challenge for the Saints despite them being at home. The Panthers have no-one to throw to and played very poorly last week but escaped with the win. Devin Funchess was the ONLY WR to catch a pass, that’s just ridiculous, so 15/8 (Willhill) on him isn’t a bad price, they will have to perform better and it will be mainly on Cam to sort it out. SAINTS – Coby Fleener is out of this game with concussion and Drew Brees likes Josh Hill anyway, so him being priced at 8/1 on Boylesports, 5/1 on Skybet. I think that’s a decent price – Josh Hill anytime TD – 5/1 (Skybet) – 1pt. His other TE who has also had endzone targets this year is double the price at 10/1 – Hoomanawanui – 10/1 (Skybet) 0.5pt

Philadelphia at Seattle

This would have been cracker if the Seahawks hadn’t had injuries all over the shop, as it is the Eagles should be fairly comfortable here, they have probably the best offensive line in the game this season and quite possibly the best defensive line as well and they have so much depth all over that they can beat anyone, as they’ve shown so far this season. Russell Wilson for the Seahawks has had a direct part in EVERY point they’ve scored this season bar one JD McKissic run. That is a remarkable stat, he also leads his team in rushing yards which is why there’s a growing rumble for people wanting him to get the MVP honours. – EAGLES and I would take them to cover the 5 point spread too. – Jimmy Graham anytime TD – 9/5 (PP) – 2pts – and we’ll finish the handicap/totals treble with Eagles -4 (3/3 treble)

Summary –

  • Danny Woodhead anytime TD – 5/2 (365) – 2pt
  • Adam Shaheen anytime TD – 6/1 (PP) – 1pt
  • Davante Adams o60.5 receiving yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2pts
  • Dede Westbrook anytime TD – 3/1 (WillHill) – 2pts
  • Devontae Booker anytime TD – 3/1 (Skybet) – 2pt
  • Robby Anderson anytime TD scorer – 7/4 – 2pts
  • Texans o0.5 first half field goal – 6/5 (365) – 2pts
  • Browns v Chargers D/ST TD – 7/4 – 1pt
  • DJ Foster anytime TD – 6/1 (365) – 1pt
  • Johnny Holton anytime TD – 8/1 (Sportingbet) – 1pt (Don’t take 5/2 elsewhere)
  • Josh Hill anytime TD – 5/1 (Skybet) – 1pt
  • Hoomanawanui – 10/1 (Skybet) 0.5pt
  • Jimmy Graham anytime TD – 9/5 (PP) – 2pts
  • Handicap treble – 5.81/1 – 2pts

Total outlay – 21.5 points.

 

Good Luck if you follow anything, some very good looking games coming up tonight!

Also if you’re not in the draftkings league which will be on again tonight, then join here – https://dkn.gs/r/LOYkrK-f-EK5O-pQQpglFg

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