TNF – Week 13 – #HTTR @ #DallasCowboys

Washington Redskins (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys – o/u – 47

Both of these teams played on Thanksgiving with very different results. The Redskins won easily against a poor Giants side, while the Cowboys further extended their streak without a TD to about 2 and a half hours!

The Cowboys have been a stinking mess since Zeke was ruled out, I was a little down on Dak at the start of the season, I wasn’t buying that he was an instant top 5 QB as seemed to be the general consensus and this last few weeks looks like I may have been correct… Or it’s just a blip and he’s just a young lad, who knows, it’s almost like Dak was thrust into a cushy situation having a great O-Line and dominant running game for the first season and a half of his career? I would guess the truth is somewhere in between, he has fallen apart in recent weeks, I guess getting sacked 8 times in 1 game will do that to you and have you feeling more pressure than there actually is.

Dez Bryant hasn’t played well for a couple of years now and definitely doesn’t seem to be helping matters, he’s still got the name so gets a lot of attention still, and I think he’s still one of the leaders in red zone targets this year. He should have the strength and ability to beat most Cornerbacks but he just hasn’t been effective this season even before recent weeks. He’ll be facing up against Josh Norman and Brushard Breeland tonight, they’re a pretty good cornerback duo he has only topped 63 on 2 occasions this year so Dez Bryant u68.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (PP) – 2pts seems a good bet. Outside of him the likes of Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley to step up. Beasley was Daks favourite target last season and has a couple of 2 TD games this season but hasn’t been getting as many targets this year, he’s actually only scored in those 2 games and has yet to top 33 receiving yards in a game. Brice Butler has what it takes to be a decent WR in the league but doesn’t seem to be getting the ball either. One man who got the ball a lot in tiny dump offs was Jason Witten, in the 3 games they’ve sucked he’s had 7 from 7 (for 59 and 44 yards) in 2 of them (the down game being 1 from 1 vs the Eagles) so over 4.5 receptions at 11/10 on 365 looks tempting as does o37.5 yards on Skybet. – Redskins are 5th in Fantasy points conceded to the tight end, giving up the most yards to that position of any team in the league. – Jason Witten o37.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2pts

The run game has been pretty poor as well and without a pass game to balance things out it will continue to struggle. I don’t think the Redskins will run away with the game so in theory they won’t be able to lean on the run game, which, I think. Should mean more Rod Smith as opposed to Alfred Morris. Neither really got the ball last week, carries were 11-10 in Smiths favour, but Smith did get more snaps and they seem to like him, unfortunately he’s not bet-worthy anywhere, his yards are set at 57.5 which he’s not reached all year, but he is getting more playing time so I wouldn’t take the unders, and he’s a best of 12/5 to score as well which again isn’t for me.

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The ‘Skins have been hit by injuries all year but have somehow done pretty well with a makeshift offensive line, I love Kirk Cousins as a QB and to be honest I don’t really get his detractors. He’s done really well this year with what he’s been dealt, namely the offensive line and injuries to his pass catchers as well. It could be worth noting that his midweek record is horrible though! He won his first midweek came in 10 attempts last Thursday against the Giants, some QBs *cough* Dalton *cough* just can’t do it under the lights at night.

Samaje Perine topped 100 yards on the ground for the second week in a row and he’s the last man standing back there. He’s a large gentleman and he needs carries to get into his stride and wear down the opposition, he’s finally getting those carries now and averaging 4.4 YPC over his last 2 games with a TD vs the Saints. The pass catching back was meant to be Byron Maxwell last week, but while it was his first game for the team, 4 carries doesn’t look like it will affect Perine too much

With Terrelle Pryor first shit and now on IR, Jamison Crowder has been getting regular targets and he blew up last week with 7 catches from 10 yards for 141 yards and a TD. Now the Cowboys secondary has been better than the sum of it’s parts but isn’t very good. I would imagine he’ll have around that number of targets/receptions again tonight. I would expect him to top 65.5 but I won’t be taking it or the o5.5 receptions, they’re a tad too high for me. Josh Doctson is due a proper coming-out game, and this in primetime could be the perfect time! He’s had over 3 targets for 8 games in a row now and doesn’t need too many to get into the endzone, or big yardage. 2/1 isn’t good enough for me to take though. Ryan Grant seems to chip in with a TD every few weeks and is available at 7/2. In fact, all the anytime odds are pretty low tonight on both sides of the ball, unsurprisingly they’ll again be without Jordan Reed at tight end through injury. They may as well shut him down for the season now and roll with Vernon (or maybe Ver-NONE) Davis after his inexplicable flop last week against one of the worst teams in the league against Tight ends. He had 70+ yards in each of the 3 games before that and over 50 in all bar one of his last 8… The one without 50 yards? Against the Cowboys, but that was when they had Sean Lee playing and he’s a game changer. His yards are set at 42.5 on skybet, which I really want to take! He should beat that line, but last week has put me off! I’m playing scared. Cowboys are 9th in fantasy points conceded to the tight end.

I still feel uncomfortable taking teams against the Cowboys at Jerrah World and the Redskins being 1-5 against them in recent times added to Cousins primetime record doesn’t exactly inspire confidence does it! The total has gone over in this matchup 5 of the last 6 times, but that’s when the Cowboys were decent. They’re a different team recently and 47 is a pretty high line. I think the Redskins should win, with the total staying under, no action from me on either though.

  • Dez Bryant u68.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (PP) – 2pts
  •  Jason Witten o37.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2pts
  • Cousins and Dak both to have rushing TDs – 28/1 (PP) – 0.5pt – (Same bet is 12/1 on Skybet) – Cousins 3 rushing TDs, Dak 5 on the season.

Seems silly to have 2 bets on the Cowboys when I think they’re dogshit at the moment, but there it is, the stats and form suggests they’re sensible options, and obviously the other one is a random longshot because of the value I think it offers.

Good luck if you’re on anything!

 

Adam.

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