A few early bets I like – 41 days till kick off

The off-season isn’t really an off-season in the NFL, they have a couple of weeks off, but that’s the time that the bookies get themselves together and get some odds out there!

I have put out a couple of posts over the summer, but I’ll be honest, the World Cup distracted me massively and meant I didn’t really get any time to do anything over the summer. I’ve been tracking odds – Here, and keeping my eye on a few markets to see how they move, I’ve been listening to my podcasts, taking in information, and I’ve been on a couple of podcasts with The Full 10 yards @Full10Yards on twitter. Not a fan of hearing my own voice, but I’m sure I’ll get used to it! Follow, Subscribe etc…etc…

But finally I figured it’s time to get around to posting something on here.

I’ve put a few request-a-bets in with Sky, I’ll admit, I’ve not tried with many other places, unfortunately Sky are generally the quickest and easiest to get them on, so I may be hampering myself by going with them instead of asking around, but if the odds are roughly what I’m after then I’ll go for it. – Although in fairness, they’ve got it sorted on RaBs, they’re easy to find and sorted by odds.

For the record – I know that generally RaBs are mug bets, but if they’re offering what I want at odds I think are good enough then that’s good enough for me, they also have team related bets as well which are pretty handy and there’s a few nuggets in there

One note would be don’t take any @TeamFA request a bets, they don’t know what they’re doing and essentially get paid by Sky for people losing heir bets.

The ones that I have requested are –

  • Bills u6.5, Seahawks u7.5, Raiders u8.5 wins – 4/1
  • Bills u6.5, Cowboys u8.5, Raiders u8.5, Jags u9.5 wins – 17/2
  • Bills u6.5, Seahawks u7.5, Raiders u8.5, Jags u9.6 wins – 8/1
  • Bills to lose their first 6 games – 5/1
  • Buccs to lose their first 4 games – 3/1
  • Steelers to win their first 4 games – 5/2

If you look very closely you may be able to see a link between these.

I think the Bills are going to STINK this season. Last year they made the playoffs with a negative point difference, they had a great turnover differential but still relied on the Bengals beating the Ravens to get them into the playoffs for the first time in 15 years. They gave away Tyrod Taylor who was one of the safest QBs in the league, and replaced him with the Bengals backup, Josh Allen who is supposedly the worst of the 4 main QBs to have been drafted, or Nathan Peterman who threw 5 INTs in a half last season. They lost 3/5 of their offensive line, and frankly don’t have a whole lot of talent on offense at all. My best bet for the off-season is UNDER ON THE BILLS – I have them to win 3 games. On the plus side for them, they’ll probably have the number one pick next year. I should have been all over them on u6.5, but I’ve been lazy/distracted and missed that now, I will take u5.5 wins though. It looks like the best odds you can get on them now is 10/11 on Ladbrokes for u5.5 wins. If you want a little more safety you can get under 6 at 5/6 on Paddypower.

Personally I will take 5 points on Buffalo Bills u6 wins at 5/6 on Paddypower. I like the extra security knowing that 6 wins will at worst give me money back in case I’m hugely misreading this.

Staying on Buffalo, their first 6 games are pretty horrible – At Baltimore, Home to the Chargers, At Minnesota, At Green Bay, home to Tennessee and at Houston… That’s the reason for me requesting them to lose their first 6 games. They won’t be winning the road games, they’re truly horrible. BUT the 5/1 odds to get 6 results correct, I’ll be passing on that. I do think they will lose the 6 of them, and possibly the first 8 with the Colts and Pats after that! BUT… I can’t take a 6-fold at 5/1 odds.

So on to the Seahawks. They’re another UNDERS team for me. The legion of boom is no more. Chancellor is probably out for the year, Sherman has gone, Earl Thomas is more than likely either leaving or holding out of games this season. They lost a lot on offense as well, Jimmy Graham was essentially their red zone guy last year, he’s gone to the Packers. Paul Richardson got a nice payday to move to Washington. Their running backs scored 1 TD last year. ONE. They have made some coaching changes, and it looks like they’ll be trying to run the ball more, but their offensive line hasn’t changed much and it’s been terrible. The Rams and the 49ers are improved in their division, and I’ve got the Seahawks winning 4 games this year… That is definitely wrong, they have Russell Wilson at QB, he could win 4 games by himself. But that’s how I saw it when I went through the games. I do think they’ll finish with a losing record though so I’ll take them in an acca.

The Raiders are obviously another team I’m down on. The good point for me/us is that they’re a public team now that they’re moving to Vegas and signed a well known coach to a huge contract so Joe Public will be betting on the Overs for them. It’s what they do. So it will keep the price solid for anyone backing the unders. I can’t see them winning 9 games this year. I don’t rate what Jon Gruden has done at all, he’s brought in a lot of older guys who I’m not sure can hack it now, they’re in a tough division and face the NFC West out of conference which won’t be easy either.

So I will be taking the 4/1 on Bills, Seahawks and Raiders unders – 3 points

Adding another team is the tougher bit.

The reason for going under on the Jags is that they had the easiest schedule in the league last year, they had a great season, have probably the best defence in the league.. BUT won’t face as easy a schedule this year, and if Andrew Luck is back, as suggested their division is a lot tougher than last season. For some reason I just fancy the unders on them.

The other RaB involved the Cowboys. They have no-one to pass to, I don’t rate Dak and their defense without Sean Lee isn’t good. HOWEVER. Zeke is great. So I think I’m probably going to avoid adding them and stick to the 3 team bet above. I do think the Cowboys will go 8-8, but Zeke just worries me that little bit too much to bet against him.

Now, on to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

They were the hype team last season, and admittedly I fully bought in, it cost me a fair bit. And they stank. You can blame the lack of a bye week after a hurricane wiped out their first week matchup with the Dolphins , but they just weren’t great all season. This year they have improved on defence, outside of the eagles they probably have the best rotation of their defensive front 7, it’s a deep position set. BUT I don’t think that will be enough, especially without Jameis Winston who got a frankly inexplicably short suspension for groping a female Uber driver for the first 3 games. Even with him those first 3 games were probable losses, they are horrible! At New Orleans, then home to Pittsburgh and the Eagles. 3 playoff teams, including the Superbowl winners, you couldn’t have planned it much worse. The all important (for this bet) 4th game is in Chicago. They’re a much improved team this year and at home in Chi-town they’re usually a pretty good team. This bet, in my eyes, is essentially 3/1 on them beating the Bears in Chicago.

So analysing this a little more. Week 1 – Saints are 9.5 pt favourites, Week 2 the Eagles are 3 pt favs, week 3 the Steelers are 4 pt favs, week 4 you’ve got the Bears as 2.5 points favourites. So you’re probably looking at 1.25, 1.67, 1.5, 1.67 ish… Doing those separately is around 4.23/1… So. Realistically you should be looking at rolling over the singles on the Buccs opposition for the better odds.

I’ll be honest, that’s kinda shit on this bet a little. 3/1 is probably acceptable as frankly I’m not going to keep X amount to rollover on the Buccs losing for the first few weeks, but realistically. It’s not value so I’m giving it a miss.

The final one is the worst, I hate the Steelers. They’re a bunch of cunts, but they’re a fucking talented football team, and fortunately for me and my hatred they don’t have a great coach so inevitably fall down before the Superbowl.

I do have them winning their first 4 games though. They start at Cleveland at 6.5 point favourites, then home to KC, at Tampa and home to their arch rivals Baltimore. Now the thing with the Steelers is that they need to be challenged otherwise they overlook the game and screw themselves over, so Ironically the Tampa game is the one I’m most worried about of these 4!

Those first 4 games, -7 vs the Browns, -7 vs the Chiefs, -4 vs the Buccs and -6 vs the Ravens. This one is a little easier to figure out, 1.25, 1.25, 1.5, 1.4 roughly… That’s around 2.5/1 – Which is what is on offer at 5/2.

So, given that I turned down the Buccs, logically I should be taking the Steelers at 5/2 to win their first 4 games – 3 points on Steelers to win their first 4 games – 5/2

There’s a couple of RaBs I do like though.

I am a fan, but they’re also the team I’m most knowledgable about… AJ Green to top 1,000 yards and 10 TDs at 7/1 is tempting. The 1,000 yards will land as long as he plays at least 15 games, it’s the TDs which will be the critical factor here. He’s hit that in 3 of 7 years; In all season he’s played 16 games, 3/4 of those he’s hit 10 TDs or more. So odds of 7/1, to me are quite generous.

2 points on AJ Green over 1,000 rec. yards and 10+ TDs – 7/1

And now for the longshot!

Most Sacks: V.Miller, Most Rookie Pass Yards: J.Rosen, Most Rush Yards: E.Elliot – 200/1

I like to take the occasional 200/1 longshot on the season! I think that Zeke will have the most rushing yards, and that Rosen will have the most rookie passing yards, so essentially I’m going for around 12.0 (11/1) on Von Miller most sacks, seeing as he’s priced at 12/1 on Skybet, that’s pretty much right. So I’ll take a small stake on this one.

0.5 pt on the above at 200/1.

I like the Vikings and the Rams this year, you can get them both to win their respective divisions at a touch over 4/1 on Skybet,

3 points on Vikings and Rams to win their divisions – 4.01/1

I will also be taking the Vikings as a single at 13/8 – They’re stronger than last year, with Cousins at QB and welcoming back a true 3 down back in Dalvin Cook, they kept the same defence as last season, one of the best in the league, so I think they’ll win their division.

Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North – 2.63 (13/8) – 4 points

There is more to follow… A few week 1 bets that I think will be quite significantly different come kick off time, I’ll get to them during the week. There’s a pretty decent disparity amongst the bookies on a few of these even at this early stage. I’ve also got a few of the more niche markets to go on.

The Bears OVER on total points on Bet365 is one I’ve mentioned on twitter that I will be looking closer at, in fact, that whole market I’ll look a little more into.

For today, these are my bets/stakes.

All Skybet unless mentioned.

  • Buffalo Bills u6 wins – Paddypower – 5/6 – 5 pts
  • 4/1 on Bills, Seahawks and Raiders unders – 4/1 – 3pts
  • Steelers to win their first 4 games – 5/2 – 3 pts
  • AJ Green 1,000+ rec. yards and 10+ TDs – 7/1 – 2pts
  • Most Sacks: V.Miller, Most Rookie Pass Yards: J.Rosen, Most Rush Yards: E.Elliot – 200/1 – 0.5 pts
  • Vikings and Rams to win their divisions – 4.01/1 – 3 pts
  • Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North – 2.63 (13/8) – 4 pts

20.5 pts staked

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