Week 2 previews!

The Bengals lead the NFL!!! A great win against the Ravens last night makes them the first team to hit 2-0, an AJ Green hat-trick in the first half was pretty much all they needed, they had a worrying wobble in the second half to keep it interesting, but saw it out easy enough in the end, the defense was great, the offensive line didn’t allow a sack on Dalton. Good times all round in Cinci, well except Mixon is now going to miss at least one game, hopefully it will just be a 2 week recovery, he’s looked great so far.

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Philadelphia (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay Total: Total – 44.0

Believe it or not both of these teams come into the game at 1-0. The Eagles scraped to that win in the opening game, the Buccs pulled off the shock of the week beating the Saints in a massive scoring victory, ending one of my pre-season bets before it even got started (Buccs to lose first 4.) It’s what Fitzmagic does, he joins as a backup, gets a start, has a huge game then reverts to backup form. This will be a new test for them, the Eagles defense was fantastic against the Falcons a week or so ago. DeSean Jackson is (probably) out with consuccion/shoulder injury, so Chris Godwin is the man to target here 7/2 on PP, (4.50) he scored last week and should get more looks this, admittedly against a better defense. For the Eagles they’ll have Foles at QB again, and will be without Jeffery and Sproles this week, so I am tempted to go back to the well with Corey Clement. He will see an increased role without Sproles there, at time of writing he’s 12/5 Betfred (3.4) – Over 2/1 will do for me.

Despite the Buccs looking great last week, I think the Eagles win and cover the spread.

Chris Godwin – 7/2 (4.50) – Paddypower – 1 point, Corey Clement anytime – 12/5 (3.40) – 1 point

Carolina (+6) @ Atlanta: Total – 44.5

The start of the season has been brutal for Atlanta, not only did they lose the game they lost two key players on defense with Deion Jones and Keanu Neal out for the season, they will also be without Devonta Freeman, so it’s all Tevin Coleman this weekend. Unfortunately the bookies aren’t stupid anymore and he’s odds on. Nope. In fact there’s not a whole lot tempting me on their side of the ball, maybe Austin Hooper at the price, but the play-calling debacle of last week has me unsure of anything they do near the endzone. The Panthers had a rough week too, Daryl Williams their right tackle is done for the season and Tight end Greg Olsen is “month-to-month” but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s done too. Ian Thomas fills in there 7/2 on Betfred (4.5) but judging by last year when Olsen was out Devin Funchess should get a nice bump up, he’s not horribly priced at 5/2 on Betfred (3.5). I don’t like the price on either of those guys, but CJ Anderson at 11/2 (6.50) is worth a small punt. It’s a tough one because he’s behind CmcC and Cam in all likeliness, but that’s why he’s a little more value. And bear with me on this next one, reports are that they’ll use 3 guys at tight end, Thomas, Manhertz and Alex Armah. He got a carry, for one yard, and a touchdown last week… 25/1? Why the hell not.

I’ve got to take the Falcons returning home, with a lean towards Carolina keeping it close in a low scoring game.

CJ Anderson – 11/2 (6.50) – PP – 0.5 point, Alex Armah – 25/1 – PP – 0.5 point.

Minnesota (+1) @ Green Bay: Total –

This one all depends on Aaron Rodgers playing, he proved he’s the best in the game by returning to take his team to their biggest ever 4th quarter comeback for the win against Chicago and he did it on one leg. It’s that leg injury that’s worrying them for this week but it seems inevitable he’ll play in such a big game at the top of the division. Because of his unknown status the spread and total are off the board, if he starts it looks likely to be GB 2 points faves. If not it’ll be Vikings by 7 points, he’s worth about 9 to the team!

I’ll be honest, whether he starts of not I think the Vikings win, they’re the most complete team, a solid defense, and good offense, it’s all there. – Probably lean to the unders depending on the line, I’d guess around 46/47 with Rodgers?

Cleveland (+9) @ New Orleans: Total – 49.5

I’m sure you all saw the image around twitter during the week, Cleveland, by not losing had their best start since 2004! 14 years of losing their opener in every season! They really should have won though, they won the turnover battle by 5 meaning they often had good field position, but the coaching was poor again and it let them down. Landry looked good, as did Gordon in horrible weather for pass catchers. The Saints were shocked by the Buccs and looked horrible on defense, they’ll have to sort that out quickly or Gordon 3/1 Betfred (4.0) will kill them in this one. Kamara didn’t get many carries, yet still scored 3 TDs, he looks every bit as good as he did last season. Michael Thomas looked great too, he’s an amazing receiver, 180 yards and a TD last week. It’s no surprise that Kamara and Thomas are both odds on to score anytime. Ted Ginn proved he still has it as well scoring last week.

(Side note – 2/9 (1.22) odds for Alvin Kamara is hilarious)

The Saints should win, but they should have won last week. I can’t take them as 9 points faves. I have got over on the total in an acca for this week already, but not as confident in that as I was, so I’d give that a miss too!

Miami (+3) @ NY Jets: Total – 43.5

Well, the Jets weren’t bad were they! Darnold started his NFL career with a pick 6 on his first ever pass, it was horrible too, then the Jets defense stepped up, they’ve boasted this week that they new the play-calls and where Matthew Stafford was going to throw the ball, but the D/ST still had to do it, and they did. It’ll be very interesting to see how Darnold copes in NY. The media there can be very “imposing” but he seems to be a strong minded lad. Enunwa was his favoured target as I called in the preview, Robby Anderson had 1 pass, 1 catch for a TD. Isaiah Crowell got 2 TDs on the ground, one on a breakaway run and the script went well for him over Powell. I personally think Powell will get more over the season, but again that remains to be seen. Jermaine Kearse will return this week to muddle the WR area a bit more. The Dolphins have lost their left guard, Josh Sitton for the season, bad news for Gore and Drake at running back, they shared carries fairly evenly in week 1, Gore looked good for his age and we got a good line on him from PP so i’ll keep an eye out there. Kenny Stills is the man to look for in the passing game, scoring 2 last week, and at 2/1 isn’t an awful bet, same price as Robby Anderson in fact. The tight end Neal Sterling could be one at a big price.

Not entirely sure on this one, the Jets looked great last week, the Dolphins also won, basically whoever wins the series between these two gets to finish 2nd in this division. It’s a low total, the Jets covered that themselves last week, lean to the overs.

Kenny Stills anytime – 3/1 (4.00) – Betfair (3.75 on PP) – 1 point

Kansas City (+5) @ Pittsburgh: Total – 53.5

The Steelers looked pretty poor last week in tie-ing the game with Cleveland, but the weather wasn’t conducive to the way they like to play and they’re a much better team when they’re back home, Big Ben especially and against this Chiefs secondary the whole WR corps could thrive. Antonio Brown still scored himself a TD and should again this week, Juju will be involved, even Vance McDonald returning at tight end could get a look or two, he and James Washington could be value at around 4/1 each. James Connor will get a workhorse load again and should do well. If the Steelers get scoring, which I believe they will then the Chiefs will have to keep up and with Mahomes and Tyreek Hill they’re one of the few teams in the league who could do just that. Kareem Hunt wasn’t too involved last week, but will be this, they’ll need to run the ball well to keep it for longer and slow the Steelers offense.

This is a game I’m heavily targeting on Draftkings this week, and at the risk of looking like an idiot, I have looked at the high scoring markets on 365 as well, o71.5 points is there at 7/1 on PP. Steelers to score every qtr is 6/4 (2.50) and I’ll probably be looking at a few of the Both players to score markets on Skybet. They’re all a bit skinny other than those involving James Washington. Risky. – The Steelers have won 6 of the last 7 against the Chiefs and should do here – Even at 53.5 I’m liking the overs. The Big Ben line below is around 15 yards lower than everywhere else seems to be offering, so have to take it.

There was a couple of bigger prices I looked at but will personally avoid – Anthony Sherman (scored last week) is 18/1 on WillHill, DeAnthony Thomas – 10/1 also on WH, if there’s as many scores as I think there’s a chance they’ll get there.

Over 71.5 points – 7/1 – PP – 0.5 point, Big Ben o278.5 Passing yards – 1/1 – PP – 2 points

LA Chargers (-7) @ Buffalo: Total – 43.0

The Bills are the worst team in football, and I even had a quick look at any team to go 0-16 recently because of them. 8/1 was still tempting. The Nathan Peterman project is over. Again. So Josh Allen is in at QB for them, he’s going to get killed. Kelvin Benjamin is their #1 Receiver and he’s a low of 2/1. To be honest, I’m shocked to see McCoy at pretty much evens, not going near that! But if they offer 25/1 on Marcus Murphy again I’ll have a go on him. The Chargers could feasibly have won last week the receivers let Rivers down with 3 drops on what would have been huge plays from Benjamin and Tyrell Williams. They should be able to do whatever they want here even without Joey Bosa again the Bills O-line is a mess so they’ll get the ball often. 9/4 on Chargers D scoring isn’t bad, but 365 should have around 7/4 for either D/ST so i’ll wait.

This should get out of hand, but the Chargers travelling across the country for an early start worries me a little. Chargers win, and probably cover the spread, but not for me. Bills u16.5 points looks good at 10/11 (1.90)

Chargers -7 (1/3 on spread treble), Keenan Allen – 5/4 (2.25) – Betfair (2.2 at Fred) – 4 points – NAP

Houston (-2.0) @ Tennessee: Total – 44.5

Two teams who really under-performed last week. Watson looked lost against the Pats, and with DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller on the injury report it’s even more of a worry for this offense against a fairly good Titans defense. They’ll be hoping Watson bounces back and that Hopkins starts as he’s half of their offense. Bruce Ellington could be worth a look otherwise. At least their defense still seems to be entirely fit and ready to cause choas. It looks like Mariota will start for the Titans, but Gabbert could also be involved if he doesn’t fully overcome an elbow injury which hampered him in the 7 hour game in Miami last week. The Titans looked poor, but it’s hard to judge much on such a weird game. One thing that did stand out was Dion Lewis seemingly taking over from Derrick Henry, Lewis will be on my list for a TD when they have prices available. Taylor Lewan their brilliant left tackle will be missing this week too which doesn’t help their chances against JJ Watt and company.

Last week worried me for both of these teams. I liked the Titans over the summer but they were shit in pre-season and carried that on last week. The Texans depend mainly on Watson performing. I’m leaning towards the Texans covering the spread.

Houston -3 points – (2/3 on Spread treble)

Indianapolis (+6.5) @ Washington: Total – 48

Alex Smith is not a bad Quarterback! He had a solid game in his debut for Washington last week, targeting the tight end a lot as you’d expect, and helped out by Adrian Peterson in the running game who had a fantastic debut as well. I’ve got to think they’ll use a similar game plan this week, use the tight end, and the running backs in the passing game and control with AP running the ball. That means looking for Reed, AP and Chris Thompson prices. Thompson is a special player to watch when healthy and one to keep an eye on, hopefully for a touch higher than the 7/4 currently available. I watched the Colts closely as they lost to the Bengals and they played the middle of the field on the whole well, the offensive line did a pretty good job protecting Luck and they’ll need to step up today as Washington have a solid defense. He used the tight ends often as well, Doyle is 2/1, Ebron 3/1 to score this weekend. They struggled to get the running game going last week and Hines and Michael mixed in with Wilkins. I like the under 53.5 rushing yards line on Wilkins this week.

The Redskins should win, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they covered the spread, I’m not taking them to win by a touchdown though.

Jordan Wilkins u53.5 rushing yards – 10/11 – Skybet – 2 points – If you want you get secure this with o33.5 combined yards at Evens on PP, a nice middle there, and you get any receptions.

Chris Thompson anytime – 2.75 (Unibet) – 3 points – NB

Arizona (+13) @ LA Rams: Total – 44

The Cardinals were a mess last week and couldn’t get anything going on offense, Bradford historically starts seasons well but there’s already calls for Josh Rosen to replace him. Not even David Johnson could save them last week, 67 combined yards for him is not a good sign. Their offensive line isn’t very good and may well be destroyed by the Rams interior line this week, Suh has said in interviews he takes a special joy in hitting Sam Bradford as the man who was taken before him when they were drafted at 1 and 2. He should get a very close meeting with him on Sunday. The Raiders dealt with the pass rush by quick passes, mainly to the tight end, avoiding the stellar cornerbacks they’ve amassed too. So looks for a receiving line on Ricky Seals-jones. I like the unders on Larry Fitzgerald though, he has some serious home/road splits, so going u70.5 is tempting to me. The Rams eventually ran out comfortable winners in Oakland spreading the ball around well and using Gurley to get most of the yards, much like last season, and like last season Cooper Kupp was the redzone target. He and Cooks caught 5 each, Cooks also drew a big PI which would have added 50 yards to his final line, and Robert Woods was close to having a big game too. All of them should do well here despite the fact I quite like the Cardinals defense on paper.

13 point favourites. Wow. I mean I think the Rams will cover it, but not a chance I can take that. Amazingly that means the Cardinals have a lower team points line than the Bills.

Detroit (+6) @ San Francisco: Total – 48

This is the game I’ve been wanting to get to, Jimmy Garoppolo lost for the first time in his short career last week, but he really shouldn’t have done, Kittle and Pettis both dropped touchdowns and a few other big passes towards them as well meaning they went down narrowly against one of the best defense in the game. I think they’ll both have big games this week too, the Lions are historically poor against the tight end and Pettis will be starting with Goodwin ruled out. The Lions on the other hand looked awful, as they have done all summer in fairness. They lost Blount early and went behind quickly so couldn’t get the run game going, so it’s hard to tell whether they prefer Riddick or Kerryon Johnson, Riddick got more of the game last week, and Stafford got smashed in the passing game too. He won’t be that bad again. Marvin Jones and Golden Tate will look to bounce back, but I’ll be hoping for a good price on Kenny Golladay again, he was 11/4 last week at home, so hopefully 3/1+ on the road

The 49ers should be winning this, the line opened 4.5 which I took, at 6 it’s a little riskier.

Dante Pettis anytime – 9/4 (3.25) – William Hill – 2 points

Oakland (+6) @ Denver: Total – 46

I’ll admit I did enjoy watching the Raiders lose last week, I really don’t like what Gruden has done, or is doing there, so it gave me a small amount of satisfaction! They actually looked OK in the first half (as above) they planned well to negate the pass rush, but ran out of steam in the second half and the Rams took over. Jared Cook was the main man with the Raiders receivers only getting 60-odd yards between the 3 of them. It may be time to just accept that Amari Cooper will never be the player everyone seems to think! The Denver pass rush is probably even more deadly than the Rams so you’d think logic would say it will be a similar plan this week. The Broncos started with a home win and should notch another one this weekend. Keenum had a good enough game at QB, Manny Sanders clearly his favourite target, got 135 yards from 10 catches last week, he’s set at 57.5 yards this week, I’ve taken the over. They also unleashed little known Phillip Lindsay, he and fellow rookie Royce Freeman both had 71 yards from 15 carries, Lindsay had more in the passing game though and is one to look out for in the opening weeks. The anytime prices so far aren’t good, all far too skinny for me.

The Broncos should win, and should beat the spread but I don’t think I’ll be taking them by 6 points.

Denver -6 (3/3 on spread treble)

Emmanuel Sanders o57.5 yards – 10/11 (1.91) – Skybet – 3 points

New England (-1) @ Jacksonville: Total – 45.5 (Skysports Action)

The second televised game of the weekend is a rematch of the AFC Championship game last year! The Jaguars were agonisingly close to winning that with Myles Jack wrongly blown down when recovering a fumble to score. They’ll want revenge for that, whether they get it or not is another thing. They were unconvincing in their win against the Giants last week and star RB Leonard Fournette has yet to train this week with a hamstring strain, that’s an injury that they usually try not to risk, any muscle injury is a worry for an RB. If he can’t go it should be a straight swap for TJ Yeldon who took over last week, the bookies so far seem to have assumed it’ll be Yeldon and priced him poorly at 6/4. My boy Tommy Bo could be worth a tiny bet at 20/1 though. Bortles still isn’t really trusted in the passing game and the Pats defense looked pretty good last week. The Pats offense wasn’t perfect, but Brady and Gronk definitely got the job done as you’d expect. Phillip Dorsett had the role most expected, I’ll be honest, I didn’t trust it at all, but 7 receptions and a TD shows they trust him. Other than those two it was mainly RBs in the passing game, Burkhead and White, Burkhead has been listed as having a concussion so I think it’s unlikely to see him go here, meaning White should get some good yards, again he’s another they’ve priced horribly, 4/5 on Skybet! But you can get odds against elsewhere. It’s far too short for me, especially against the Jags defense. I swear that Cordarelle Patterson with at least one TD in a game at some point this season, I can’t figure when, but it’ll happen! 11/2 on him isn’t horrible.

I would expect the Patriots to win, it’s what they do. But this could go either way. I think the total is set too high here and would lean unders though.

NY Giants (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys: Total – 42.5

I am ridiculously low on the Cowboys, they don’t have any pass catchers or note, are missing a couple of their offensive line and a QB who can’t throw downfield. Teams have learnt how to stop them and I think they’re going to really struggle this year (Josh Gordon has now become available…) They seem to be wasting their years of having a QB on a tiny contract, not that I rate Dak at all anyway. It’s all on Zeke, if they get the lead and he can get his game going then they might be able to do, well, something. If not. They’re in trouble, they struggle to play from behind, It is worth noting it was all Cole Beasley last week and there’s a decent line on him. The Giants had a tough start against the Jags last week, Eli didn’t look good, but over 100 yards for Barkley and for Odell is a good sign for them and Evan Engram at tight end was very close to some big plays as well, they’ll find it easier this week and I can’t see how the Giants are the underdogs to be honest. They’re better in most areas in my mind.

NY Giants moneyline – 7/5 (2.4) in most places, a couple of 2.45 at 888 and 188 – 2 points. Cole Beasley o4.5 receptions – 11/10 (2.10) 365 – 1 point

 

Summary –

• Chris Godwin – 7/2 (4.50) – Paddypower – 1 point
• Corey Clement anytime – 12/5 (3.40) – 1 point
• CJ Anderson – 11/2 (6.50) – PP – 0.5 point
• Alex Armah – 25/1 – PP – 0.5 point
• Kenny Stills anytime – 3/1 (4.00) – Betfair (3.75 on PP) – 1 point
• KC vs Pitt – Over 71.5 points – 7/1 – PP – 0.5 point
• Big Ben o278.5 Passing yards – 1/1 – PP – 2 points
• Keenan Allen – 5/4 (2.25) – Betfair (2.2 at Fred) – 4 points – NAP
• Jordan Wilkins u53.5 rushing yards – 10/11 – Skybet – 2 points
• Chris Thompson anytime – 2.75 (Unibet) – 3 points – NB
• Dante Pettis anytime – 9/4 (3.25) – William Hill – 2 points
• Emmanuel Sanders o57.5 yards – 10/11 (1.91) – Skybet – 3 points
• Sanders and Wilkins prop bet double – 2.64/1 – Skybet – 1.5 points
• Chargers -7, Houston -3, Denver -6 treble – 7.57 on RedzoneSports – 2 points
• NY Giants moneyline – 7/5 (2.4) – 2 points
• Cole Beasley o4.5 receptions – 11/10 (2.10) – 365 – 1 point

27 points outlay.

 

Good luck if you follow along with anything!