TNF – Week 3 – NY Jets @ Cleveland Browns – #Jets vs #Browns

A disappointing weekend last week, a lot of strange results and I know a lot of the guys I follow struggled as well. But not good enough from me, I put out a lot of tips as well as there were quite a few I liked at the prices, but the winners we had were all the single point stakes which is frustrating. I did give a 7/1 overs WINNER which I doubt many other tipsters would have gone near though!

Oh, and I won $1000 on a Draftkings contest. Which was nice. I have 2 contests going each week, this is the main one, pays for the top 2 places – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/60232431 – If you haven’t got a Draftkings account and want to join in then going through my friends and family referral could get us both a free entry to the millionaire maker depending on how much you deposit when you open the account – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/r/cavey007

If you fancy yourself a bit of a challenge, then RedzoneSports have an NFL Predictor with the weekly top prize a £500 bet, it’s free to enter – RedzoneSports predictor

Anyways, on to tonight…


New York Jets (+3) @ Cleveland Browns: Total – 41

It’s been 635 days since the Cleveland Browns won a game, a late field goal against the Chargers gave them a Christmas miracle and stopped Hue Jackson from being winless in his entire time in charge of the team. I like Hue, but honestly, I’m pretty sure he’s the issue at the moment!

The Browns are favourites for the game, and rightly so, they probably should have won both of their games so far, the first against the Steelers they won the turnover battle by 6-1, it’s almost unheard of for a team to not win with a +5 differential, but the Browns managed it. Zane Gonzalez missed a late field goal at the end of overtime meaning they left with a tie. Unfortunatley for Zane he also left 10 points on the field this week against the Saints and that let them back in the game to steal the win from Cleveland. The two teams they’ve faced so far are better than their opposition tonight though.

Their defense is the stellar unit in this matchup though, Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi have been a great tandem so far, 5 sacks between them in the opening two games. Half of the teams 10 sacks this season and the Steelers and Saints have highly ranked offensive lines as well. They should smash the Jets to bits tonight and a bet I like is Cleveland Browns most sacks – 11/10 (I’m happy to take any odds against on this, although it was 15/8 earlier in the week) The Jets have allowed 5 sacks, the Browns 7 but most of them were week one in the rain.

Tyrod, Tie-rod, Tuh-rod, Trod? Taylor is an adequate QB who has done OK so far this season, that’s his career in a nutshell. He’ll get your team to a certain level but probably doesn’t have enough to take them onwards, 22 competions from 30 attempts for 246 yards, 1 Td, 1 INT is pretty average. The INT last week cost the team dearly though as they needed a few first downs to run out the clock and seal the game. He knows he’s probably on a short leash with Baker Mayfield in the shadows waiting for his chance. This game could be a catalyst if Darnold lights it up as the Dawg pound fans will be wondering why the rookie they could have taken is starting and performing whilst their number one pick is on the bench. One thing Tyrod can do is run with the ball and the 9/2 on Skybet for him to score anytime isn’t too bad.

Jarvis Landry is listed as questionable but it’s been said that he’ll play tonight. He has been the main target for Tyrod Taylor and you’d expect that to continue tonight, 7-106 and 5-69 in the 2 games. The release of Josh Gordon gives a couple of younger players a chance, Rashad Higgins had 27 catches in 15 games last season, hardly convincing, but he should get more targets and catches with the lack of competition in the receiving game now. The main bump, I feel goes to rookie Antonio Callaway who would have been drafted a lot higher had he not being a prick in college. He scored his first TD last week from a beautiful bomb from Taylor and I can see that at least being attempted again this week. His yards are set temptingly low at either o40.5 at Evens or o38.5 at 10/11 depending whether you prefer slightly more risk for slightly better odds. You’ve got to expect a little bump for David Njoku as well, the second year tight end looked brilliant in pre-season but hasn’t done much this season, 3-13 and 4 for 20 isn’t exactly going to convince me to take o31.5 from Paddypower.


Sam Darnold has had a reasonable start at QB for the Jets. I’m not as carried away as most seem to be, he’s still making rookie mistakes as you’d expect, but he has made some great throws as well. His first throw in the league being a pick-6 wasn’t the best of starts, but the mental fortitude shown to come back from that was impressive for the youngest QB starter in NFL history, but that game was won by the defense and their special teams. Last week he looked more like a rookie but was let down a couple of times by his pass catchers so this week under the spotlight will be interesting. He’s thrown a pick in each game as well – 6/5 for him to throw the most INTs in this game seems a good bet here. Tyrod is typically a very safe QB despite his INT at the weekend.

Quincy Enunwa is his man. He’s had double digit targets in both game so far and turned them in to 63 and 93 yards. I don’t see any reason why that would change tonight, his yards are set at 57, 58, over 57.5 on Skybet seems to be the best line about. He faces a tough defense tonight so I won’t be backing it, but he should beat that line still, a safer bet, but at poor odds is o4.5 receptions on PP at 4/6 (1.67) – Robby Anderson and Terrelle Pryor are the other two in the passing game, Anderson is a burner who increased his targets in week 2, hauling in 3 for 27 yards. Pryor has had a lot more of the ball with 4 receptions from 8 targets last week, he did let Darnold down by stopping on a route during the game last week, but they seem to be growing in trust with him. He’s at a large price to score any time, and this is a revenge game for him tonight. 6/1 on Skybet is very tempting, you could easily see him bringing in the game winning TD with 2 mins left in the game and stopping the Browns from their win. Jermaine Kearse is back for his second game of the season, impressively his 1 catch this season went for -1 yard. Oh. They’ve got a few options at tight end, but I’m convinced that Chris Herndon is the man they want to succeed. He had a good preseason, he was targeted last week a few times and probably should have got into the endzone. Unfortunately we’ve missed the 25/1 from Tuesday, 8/1 on Paddypower isn’t awful though.

The run game depends on how well they’re doing in the game, if they’re leading they’ll use Crowell more, if they’re losing then it will be Bilal Powell. Powell is the one I usually want to target from the two, he caught 5 passes for 74 yards last week against the Dolphins and o20.5 receiving yards on RedzoneSports at 20/23 looks like a good bet to me.

The Jets defence did very well in that opening game, boasting that they knew what plays were coming from hand signals and the way the teams were set. Last week wasn’t anywhere near as good though and against a solid QB in Taylor I’m not sure they’ll put up much today.


Summary

It’s stupid to bet on the Browns, you will lose. The pros bet on them as they look at the roster and see what they should be able to do, but they constantly let you down.

I think that if they win a game they’ll win a few in a row, but until then they’re impossible to trust with anyone’s money. They just need to get over the hump, as ridiculous as his outburst was on Hard Knocks Jarvis ‘Blessem’ Landry was right, the team is entrenched in losing at the moment.

The Browns SHOULD win a low scoring game, but I don’t want to bet on them.

Bets I will be taking tonight –

  • Cleveland Browns most sacks – 11/10 (2.10) – Skybet – 2 points
  • Bilal Powell – o20.5 receiving yards – 20/23 (1.86) – RedzoneSports – 2 points
  • Tri-bet – any other result – 7/4 (2.75) – 365 – 1 point

Tribet option is on the Main prop page on the game menu on Bet365. Basically means either team to win by 5 points or less.

P/L so far this year

Good luck if you follow along, a few other leans in the post that I’ve left alone, mainly based on the Browns defense.

 

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