Week 4 brief and tips

What a game Thursday night was! Jared Goff is definitely not a system QB any more, some of the throws he made on Thursday were beautiful and not a defense in the league was stopping them. This game had 5 players go over 100 yards, basically all of the main guys in the game topped the ton! Annoyingly for me Stefon Diggs didn’t get in the endzone, Aldrick Robinson came from nowhere to get the TD passes from Cousins, but we finished in profit, even if it was only 1 point up.

Anyway, on to Sunday night!


Jets (+7.5) @ Jaguars: Total – 38.5

The Jaguars lost last week in one of the worst games to have ever taken place in the NFL. They’ll bounce back this week against a rookie QB though. Darnold got FAR too much praise for his debut performance and came crashing to earth in the second half against the Browns last week, the Browns were a good defense, but this one is better., I’ll also be avoiding the spread, but now it’s ticked over the magic number I’d be leaning towards the Jets, The Jets actually beat them here last season. Fournette has said he’ll be playing this week so that probably means a return to just handing the ball over to him and letting him run, means slow play and low scoring, I’d expect this to be fairly low scoring, but so do Vegas with the line at 38.5. I don’t like going unders on anything below 40, so will avoid that.

I like Darnold u220.5 passing yards and Robby Anderson u40.5 rec. yards, but the fact they’ve had 10 days to rest and prepare for this game worries me a little about taking anything in this game frankly, so I’ll be avoiding. If you fancied dutching Bortles yards you could take o228.5 on Paddy (Evens) and u249.5 on Skybet (10/11).

Bengals (+3.5) @ Falcons: Total – 53.5

This one is intriguing due to injuries, AJ Green will be playing for the Bengals and with him they’ve got a good chance against a Falcons defense which has been decimated through injury, they’re on to their 3rd and 4th choice safeties in the middle of the field and it cost them last week against a powerful Saints team who put over 40 points on them last week, Tyler Boyd continues to impress and should have another good game from the slot for the Bengals in the slot where the defense is week, Green being back should help him with coverage as well. The Falcons have hit their stride on offense though and Julio vs WJ3 will be a real test of whether Jackson is an elite CB or not. As a Bengals fan I’m worried as Julio wasn’t the centre of attention last week, he usually blows up the week after. If he’s covered well as I think he will be then it should open things up for Calvin Ridley opposite him, his snaps have been creeping up over the last few weeks and he made his mark on the league with 3 TDs from 7 catches for 146 yards last week, the Bengals will be aware of him now, but if he’s lining up against Kirkpatrick I’m not super-confident!

This line was at 5.5 when I wrote this article originally, I’ve got to take the Falcons at home now that they’re only -3.5, I’d lean towards o51 (Which it was, but it should really go over 53.5 as well)

Gio Bernard o4.5 receptions on RedzoneSports at 20/41 is too short for me to recommend but if you want to put a few lines together it should come in pretty easily, the Falcons are one of the worst in the league in defending pass catching RBs.

Quite like Matt Ryan o267.5 passing yards at 10/11 on Skybet as well here. (He’s 280.5 on PP)

Tyler Boyd o55.5 rec. yards – 4/5 (365) – 2 points

Texans (+1) @ Colts: Total – 47

My god, I tipped the Texans to make a Superbowl run, that looks incredibly unlikely now! Only 2.8% of 0-3 teams make the playoffs and the last one was the Bills in 1998! Safe to say their season is practically over. Deshaun Watson has linked up with Fuller and Hopkins, both over 100 yards last week, and he’s averaging around 30 on the ground as well, he has looked better every game so far this season, but they just don’t seem to be able to get a win at the moment, Hopkins and Fuller have been the only guys in the passing game so far and Bruce Ellington is now on IR so up steps Keke Coutee. He received a lot of hype in the summer and is priced nicely for his debut here. The Colts have exceeded my very low expectations, Luck has looked OK, but only throwing short passes, averaging 5 ypa this season which hurts them, but they have been able to move the ball, it means that I can’t really look towards TY Hilton for anything, they’re banged up at Tight end with Doyle and Ebron both having been on the injury report this week, when fit Doyle is the guy between the 20s, and Ebron is the red-zone guy, a best of 2/1 isn’t very tempting though.

The Colts are favoured by one point, I think they’ll cover that. This Texans defense has been horrible so far and the Colts defense has been surprisingly good. At the end of the day I won’t be taking anything on this game.

Keke Coutee anytime – 20/1 (Skybet) – 0.5 point

Lions (+3) @ Cowboys: Total – 44

And one other thing I’ve learnt so far this season. Bet against the Cowboys. Dak is trash and while I don’t want to demean a guys career, I am glad he’s finally been found out, I’ve had many an argument trying to make people realise he’s really not very good. He can’t throw under pressure and when he does throw he can’t make it further than 10 yards. In fairness It doesn’t help his WRs are utter garbage as well. This should be a big game for Zeke though, the Lions are one of the worst run defenses in the league and won “their Superbowl” in beating the Patriots last week. The Lions HAVE DONE IT! THEY HAD A 100 YARD RUSHER! Kerryon Johnson was their first for 5 years to top 100 yards on the ground. Surely that cements the job for him now away from Blount, he’s set at 49.5 yards on PP and it’s quite tempting to take the over there, but I just don’t trust the coaching to do what we all saw last week and carry on with Kerryon. The three receivers for the Lions have all seen action, Golladay especially has impressed, scoring in 2 of the 3 games so far this year. Marvin Jones has scored in both of those games as well. Tate is the usual stick-mover for the Lions, he was on the injury report this week though so worth keeping an eye on his health. Matty Stafford can throw the ball all day, so if they do somehow fall behind it shouldn’t be a problem for them.

I haven’t even mentioned arguably the biggest bit of this game. Sean Lee the linebacker for the Cowboys is missing, he’s a massive loss for heir defense, they’re a far worse team without him on the field.

I’ve got to take the Lions and I’m surprised to find them underdogs in this matchup.

Dak Prescott u215.5 passing yards – 4/5 (365) – 3 points, Kenny Golladay – 9/4 (Skybet) – 2 points

Bills (+9.5) @ Packers: Total – 44

The Bills. On the road. Against an NFC North foe… It couldn’t happen again could it?! Well they’re barely double-digit underdogs this week so it wouldn’t even really raise an eyebrow if they won here. They had a good gameplan last week and took advantage of matchups, apparently the HC Sean McDermott took over defensive play-calling and it’s safe to say he knew what he was doing. Aaron Rodgers will carry on battling through his knee injury but he didn’t look good last week in their defeat in Washington. He can still do it at 70% and should have enough weapons to take care of this Bills team who had an anomalous result last week. Aaron “the welshman” Jones was in the lineup last week and instantly looked the best runner, they are a better offense with him in the team and Rodgers wants him there. I want to lean towards Geronimo Allison as well, he’s had a few big games recently either scoring a TD or putting up yards and 44.5 isn’t a bad line for him, but Randall Cobb got a lot of targets last week he just couldn’t convert them to catches, so I’m not sure how much of the ball Allison will see.

Packers to win, won’t touch a near double digit handicap though, especially after the scenes of last weekend!

Aaron Jones anytime – 3/1 (Skybet) – 2 points

Dolphins (+6.5) @ Patriots: Total – 48

Well. The AFC East leaders are in this matchup, and as we all knew it would be, it’s the road team. Teams who are 3-0 have a 76% chance of making the playoffs, the Dolphins could be one of the 24% I’m still not convinced, they won a weird game vs the Titans, and have faced the Jets with a rookie QB and the Raiders who are a mess. Being at home for 2 of them in September helps them greatly, but it’s probably worth noting Tannehill is 10-1 in his last 11 starts – It’s been a lot of good coaching so far, some trick plays, so tight games that they’ve battled through and won. The Patriots screwed a lot of people last week after getting stuffed by the Lions, surely they won’t lose 3 in a row?! I believe 2002 was the last time they did that? They usually start the season slow, but this year seems different so far, only Gronk can get himself open and they really haven’t looked too impressive.

The Patriots have to win this week, and despite some strong reservations, I think they will, again wouldn’t touch the spread as I’m not sure whether we’re just buying the name and the history of this fixture rather than what’s happened in the first 3 weeks this year.

I’m always going to take Gronk when he’s above Evens, Rob Gronkowski anytime – 11/10 (WillHill) – 2 points

Eagles (-3) @ Titans: Total – 41

The Titans have looked horrible all year, they’ve suffered injuries at key positions but they just aren’t fun to watch, Mariota will be in at QB as Gabbert is out with concussion after a brutal hit last week, Mariota still can’t feel his fingers properly which is never a good thing for a QB. Somehow they’ve won 2 of their 3 so far this season so you’ve got to give Mike Vrabel and LaFluer kudos for this play-calling. This game depends a lot on the Eagles injuries, I think Ajayi and Sproles will be back which will help the backfield, I’m unsure on the pass catching game, but Wentz back there definitely helps.

The lowest price TD scorer is Zach Ertz at a nice 13/8, everyone else is priced higher, so if you fancy someone in this game then the odds are good for you. I can’t pick anyone to be honest so won’t be indulging.

What’s that I said about taking a home underdog? It seems stupid, but I am leaning to the Titans here.

Buccaneers (+3) @ Bears: Total – 46.5

I’m sure that it will be Ryan Fitzpatrick starting again this week, he threw for over 400 yards for the third consecutive game last week and nearly completed the comeback over the Steelers, I doubt it will last all season, but he’s hot right now so you’ve got to run with it. Chris Godwin has scored every game so keep an eye on his price, usually around 11/4 – In fact there’s a 3/1 available this week. The Bears are a tough nut to crack and Khalil Mack has put himself in pole position for DPOY, and the bookies agree, he’s 5/6 the rest? 10/1 and above! I’m not a fan of Mitchell Trubisky for the Bears, his inability to throw the ball to the left is puzzling and proven, In fairness I’m not a fan of their offense in general this year, Jordan Howard has a poor yards per carry at the moment, but if they keep getting given short fields by their defense they’ll be fine.

This is quite an interesting match, if the Bears can keep it tight they’ll win, if the Buccs jump out to a lead, I don’t think Chicago have what it takes to mount a comeback.

I quite like the 2/1 for Trey Burton on Spreadex, but won’t be taking him. You can get 10/19 on Fitzpatrick to throw an interception on Redzone which is tempting against this defense.

Chris Godwin – 3/1 (Ladbrokes) – 2 points

Seahawks (-3) @ Cardinals: Total – 39

Battle of the awful offensive lines. The Cardinals aren’t good, they’re not coached well and they don’t have a whole lot of talent. They will however be led by rookie Josh Rosen this week who starts his first game after being dumped in at the end of the game last week. He can’t do worse than Sam Bradford but will need to have his weapons on the field when it counts. When a rookie or backup QB comes in the players that he’s used to playing with in training usually receive a little bump in their play. The Seahawks beat a poor Dallas team last week with Chris Carson getting the large majority of the carries. It’s looking like they’ll have Doug Baldwin back this week which is a big thing for them, Tyler Lockett has actually been doing well without him being there, but Baldwin is one of the best receivers in the league and has a good relationship with Wilson.

Hmmm, home underdogs again. I can’t have this one, I think the Seahawks win here.

I put out a 3 point bet on Christian Kirk o29.5 rec yards, that line is now 36.5 at skybet, it’s still 5 yards lower than PP and 365 have the line set at though. I won’t be doubling down on this line although with 90 from 7 catches last week I would expect him to beat it.

Browns (+3) @ Raiders: Total – 45

I have no respect for the Raiders and frankly I’m happy to see them having lost all their games so far. It’s been a weird start for them, they play well in the first half-3/4 of games, but tire at the end, possibly because they’re a very old roster since Gruden replaced any youth with “experience.”  They’re back home this week and will be hoping that brings a change of fortune. The Raiders have been a tough team to predict, week 1 was Jared Cook, week 2, Amari Cooper, week 3, Jordy Nelson, so week 4… Martavis Bryant?! He’s a physical freak and got open last week so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen and 8/1 anytime is too good for me to pass up. I said last week that I wouldn’t buy the Browns until they win. Well, they did that, and they did it with Baker Mayfield at QB. He starts this week and I believe he’ll make full use of the weapons the Browns have amassed especially having a week and a half to plan for this game and getting Baker fully installed in the offense. Landry was heavily targeted throughout and that carried on with Mayfield there. Worryingly I like a lot of players in this game as going with the rookie/backups logic I talked about above I can see Antonio Callaway having a good game as well, and Carlos Hyde has 4 TDs in 3 games. I also like Shortest TD scored u1.5 yards at 4/5 on 365.

I think the Browns will win outright.

Martavis Bryant anytime – 8/1 (365) – 2 points, Bryant 2+ – 100/1 (365) – 0.5 point, Double Result – Raiders/Browns – 13/2 (365) – 1 point.

Saints (-3.5) @ Giants: Total – 52

The Saints are 3.5 point favourites in this one, admittedly it’s on the road, but surely the Saints are the better of these two teams? They’ve struggled defensively though and that could lead to an entertaining game. This is also their first game outside all season, the weather looks like it’s going to be fine though, they run through Brees, Kamara and Michael Thomas and all 3 of them will put up good figures again this week. 4 of the last 5 games between these two have had a team score 48 or more points. I can’t see that happening again as I don’t think Eli has it in him, but it would be nice wouldn’t it. If he keeps up with the Saints then Beckham will have to have a big game, he’s not gone off properly this year, but against this defense it could be the day, obviously his yards are set rather high so I personally won’t be on that, I do like the o50.5 for Sterling Shepard though, with Evan Engram out he should get a bump and I think that’s a generous line for us.

Saints win and cover.

Sterling Shepard o50.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2 points, TreQuan Smith anytime – 18/1 (Skybet) – 1 point

Smith is priced around 4/1 everywhere other than Skybet, so for the value I’ve got to take a point on him.

49ers (+10) @ Chargers: Total – 46

This looked like such a good game a month ago! But the Chargers have done what they do, they lose games on special teams and drops, they pick up injuries and basically just disappoint. BUT this week they’ll be facing CJ Beathard as Jimmy G tore his ACL in the loss against the Chiefs. It’s a terrible loss for the 49ers whose season is pretty much over. Now I don’t hate Beathard, but he is what is he, distinctly average. Keenan Allen has been off the last few weeks and was used primarily as a blocker a couple of weeks ago when I had him to score so I’m avoiding him, Mike Williams however has 3 in 3 this season and I like the price for him to get another tomorrow in a game they should be fairly comfortable in.

Chargers win, I won’t touch the spread though.

Mike Williams anytime – 2/1 (Ladbrokes) – 2 points

Ravens (+3) @ Steelers: Total – 46

The fiercest rivalry in football according to Steelers fans and a matchup that’s provided us with some great games in recent years, the last meeting of the two was 38-39 in favour of the Steelers. This one is very tough to call, the Steelers have been awful on defense, but have scored enough to have won all 3 to start the season, and likewise the Ravens haven’t been the defensive powerhouse they usually are, but are looking far better on offense than last season, John Brown especially has been very good for them and Alex Collins will grind it out on the ground given the chance, Buck Allen has vultured TDs in each game so far and 2/1 on him isn’t bad at all. With the Steelers D undoubtedly conceding points they will need to pass lots and score quickly, and it seems that Juju is the favoured target now, maybe because coverage on Brown is too tight, but he’s had 13 and 9 catches in the last 2 weeks respectively. They’ll need to keep him quiet to win. They’ve alternated the tight ends to good effect the last 2 games with both going o100 yards when involved, I would think it’ll be McDonald again this week but that’s not something I’ll put my money on.

Steelers at home pick up the W here, and I think cover the spread.

Big Ben o296.5 pass yards – 1/1 (PP) – 2 points


Summary –

Spread treble – 

  • Lions +3
  • Buccs +3
  • Steelers -3

Around 7/1 for the treble depending where you take it. – 1 point

Anytime TD scorers – 

  • Keke Coutee – 20/1 (Skybet) – 0.5 point
  • Kenny Golladay – 9/4 (Skybet) – 2 points
  • Aaron Jones – 3/1 (Skybet) – 2 points
  • Rob Gronkowski – 11/10 (WillHill) – 2 points
  • Chris Godwin – 3/1 (Ladbrokes) – 2 points
  • Martavis Bryant – 8/1 (365) – 2 points
  • Martavis Bryant 2 or more – 100/1 (365) – 0.5 point
  • TreQuan Smith – 18/1 (Skybet) – 1 point
  • Mike Williams – 2/1 (Ladbrokes) – 2 points

Player props – 

  • Tyler Boyd o55.5 rec. yards – 4/5 (365) – 2 points
  • Dak Prescott u215.5 passing yards – 4/5 (365) – 3 points
  • Sterling Shepard o50.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (Skybet) – 2 points
  • Big Ben o296.5 pass yards – 1/1 (PP) – 2 points

Other

  • Double Result – Raiders/Browns – 13/2 (365) – 1 point.

Total outlay – 25 points.

Now I’ve got to take this seriously, last week was not a good week, for me personally I took a hit, but I can afford it with the staking plan but, this will be the last week I go hard if it’s as poor as last week and I’ll have to re-think how I do this. The issue is that I honestly believe these have good chances of winning, or are just very good value.

Fingers crossed for a good weekend, annoyingly I’ve got family stuff so won’t be able to watch the first half of redzone which is rather frustrating.


If you like Fantasy football, but have sucked so far in your redraft league then why not give Daily Fantasy a play over at Draftkings, This is $5 entry, winner get $67 if it fills! – https://dkn.gs/r/LOYkrK-f-EK5O-pQQpglFg

Also, I’ve been putting a “teaser” bet on each week, usually on Bet365 because they were the only place I could find that offered them, but it turns out that RedzoneSports do as well. Basically choose your spreads and change it in the betslip to Teaser and it will add/remove 6 pts to the lines you choose for much shorter odds. E.g. It will turn the treble suggested into Lions +9, Buccs +9 and Steelers +3, but the odds go down to around 6/4. Not for everyone and the way this season has gone so far probably sensible to wait until later in the year!

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