So, didn’t have any official bets tipped up yesterday, which is annoying as I had quite a few winners. If you listen to the @Full10yards podcast on Thursday/Friday nights then Tim and I have a 20-25 min chat about weekend bets, and we both ended up with some decent winners over the weekend, both hitting an anytime treble.
I didn’t have a whole lot of time to research to the amount I was happy to tip anything on site which is why I left it alone but the write ups were there and it still got 400 views, thank you for that! View have been pretty constant and it’s great to see that the effort I put in is appreciated! – This week I should have a little more time and the fact that things seem to have settled into some kind of predictability is definitely helping!
Titans (+5) @ Cowboys: Total – 40
Bleh. This was Titans +6.5 earlier in the week and the total has dropped from 41
I really didn’t want to write much about this one as I doubt I’ll have anything on it, but I thought I should really go through the lines and a few little bits to see if anything jumps out.
Both teams are coming off a bye week, the Titans lost in London to the Chargers going for the 2 point conversion at the end of the game there, and the Cowboys lost a close one in Washington.
The Cowboys are at 3-0 at home, and 4-0 on the road, I’l be honest this is the main reason I’ve taken the Cowboys to win.
If you’ve been reading for a while on here you’ll know that I’m not the biggest fan of Dak, or frankly the Cowboys in general, they’ve been horribly boring this year so far, they haven’t been able to throw the ball and their entire game-plan relies on getting in front and keeping the ball with Zeke. Now, in the order of fairness, they’ve put themselves and Dak into a horrible position by leaving him with practically no options in the passing game, they have no WR1, just a load of WR3s.
That could change this game with the introduction of Amari Cooper who they traded a first round pick for (Don’t laugh too much, it was ridiculous, but that’s Jerrah for you) – You’ve got to think that giving up that much capital for a player and then having him there for the whole bye week, that they’ll be throwing him into the game from the start. We shall see, he’s actually priced pretty well to score on day-booooooo for them tonight at 3/1, unsurprisingly that’s the shortest of the Dallas pass-catchers, Cole Beasley (42.5 on PP) had a good game the other week, and in theory with another viable target there should get less coverage in the slot now, he’s also 3/1, Michael Gallup (29.5 on PP)and the TE Geoff Swaim are both just over 4/1. The passing game is a bit of a mess frankly, but I’m sure there’s probably some value there somewhere! Oh, Allen Hurns is apparently still a professional NFL player as well, 23.5 yards on 365 and 5/1 for anytime for him.
Ezekiel Elliott is rather good at football but he’s one I can never back because his lines are always set so high, in fairness he may well clear them I just can’t bring myself to back over 115.5 combined yards on anyone!
The Titans? My god their a pain in the arse to watch. I thought they’d be quite exciting and be able to move the ball well this year with a new head coach, and more importantly an offensive coordinator coming in from the Rams. But apparently not. They can’t seem to get their giant running back going and Marcus Mariota, whether affected by the injury or not hasn’t managed to get much going in the passing game other than the odd game. No consistency at all.
They did promote a full back to their squad over the bye week which you would imagine is their way of trying to finally get the running game going which should bode well for Derrick Henry, his yards are set low (mainly because he’s been dogshit all year) 40.5 on PP. He’s capable of breaking a big run at points, and I can imagine this game being fairly low scoring which means the run game should be kept going. The Cowboys (according to Tim @Full10yards) are crap against pass catching RBs which should mean a good game for Dion Lewis (2/1 anytime – unibet, 62.5 combined yards PP) He was the main guy in their last game against the Chargers.
The passing game in that match for some reason fan through Tajae Sharpe (5/1), mainly because he was the only one who could actually catch the ball, the WRs let them down massively in that game. He played in the slot and was effective, going for over a ton. The line hasn’t budged on him really though, set at 36.5 yards. Corey Davis (10/3) is the higher rated but has been poor this season barring one breakout game. I can’t trust him, he’s 49.5 on PP, RZ and Skybet, 57.5 on 365. Taywan Taylor (5/1) is there too, yards set at 27.5 (PP) – I have no opinion on that. For what it’s worth the Cowboys have a pretty solid defense especially at home. Tight end is Jonnu Smith and one I may have a little nibble on at 19/2 to score anytime on RedzoneSports. It’s a good price for a redzone threat, he was the man targeted on that 2 pt play last time out.
Cowboys are at home, so should win, they welcome back Sean Lee to a defense which has been playing well even in his absence. The Titans D hasn’t been great, and while the Cowboys haven’t had much offense this year the arrival of Cooper could change that. I need the Cowboys for an 11/1 moneyline 5-fold (from the @Full10yards podcast, listen every Thursday/Friday for my bet tips on there) – I don’t think I’ll even be hedging it.
- Dion Lewis o29.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (RedzoneSports) – 2 points
- Jonnu Smith anytime – 19/2 (RedzoneSports) 9/1 elsewhere is fine. – 1pt
- Jonnu Smith 2+ – 200/1 (PP) – 0.5pt
Somehow given I think the Cowboys will win the bets I’ve chosen are on the other side of the ball, but I’m just not sure how Cooper joining will affect the Cowboys so want to leave them for now.
I honestly had no idea I could write 800 words on this piece of crap game.
At least we’ll all be able to get a full night sleep, either you don’t bother getting up because this is a trash game, or you get up and instantly fall back to sleep watching it.