Well, Thursday night was random. I said that my one worry was that Gruden was giving up on the year and planning for the future and I think it’s safe to say that was the case. Despite the 3 first round picks they’ve got, he seems determined that his own teams one will be the highest and they’ll probably be going after Nick Bosa.
Apologies for this week as well, I don’t think I’ll be adding too much more than can be found on the OLBG expert blog. Mother-in-laws birthday weekend so been in the land of the dead for the weekend with little time to get anything done!
In the immortal words of Busta Rhymes – “GIMME SOME MOORE”
Bears (-8.5) @ Bills: Total – 37.5
The Bills held the Patriots to just 1 offensive TD on MNF and this will be a good coaching matchup of offense v defense. The Bears were comfortable against the Jets and look like they’ll be going 2-2 against the AFC East. Cohen will likely pull off a big run at some point and Burton will score from a shovel pass with Trubisky running for 50+ on the ground. The Bills will score less than 14. Nathan Peterman starts for the Bills and that nudged the line from 8.5 to 10. They signed Terrelle Pryor in the week who instantly becomes both their best WR and best QB, you’d imagine he’ll get some action at wildcat. If you’re after a big price then 365 are very high odds on pretty much all Bills receivers. Mainly because they’ve only thrown 13 TDs all year.
Bears win, cover and under on the total
Buccaneers (+7) @ Panthers: Total – 54
Fitzmagic is back as starter! It makes this game a little more interesting and will more than likely end up with a long bomb to Desean Jackson, but the fact the Panthers are now 9 in a row at home means I can’t look past them here, they should finally be able to get their run game going again after a run of facing tough defenses. I like DJ Moore to extend his role from last week, not huge odds on him but maybe one to look out for.
Panthers win, wouldn’t take ATS and not sure on the total to be honest
Chiefs (-8) @ Browns: Total – 52
The Hue Jackson era is finally over leaving him as the second worst coach in history at 3-36-1 in his time there. Todd Haley has also gone, leaving Doug Williams in charge, the defense has been the one workable area of the team, leading the league in turnovers, so I guess that makes sense. Not a lot more to say about the Chiefs, they’re unstoppable. Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, Hunt. If you stop one of them the others will score.
Chiefs win, won’t touch that spread on the road and I’d look to go under the total, with a new defensive minded HC I can see the Browns doing a lot to slow the Chiefs and the new OC for Cleveland will probably keep that playbook small as well
Jets (+3) @ Dolphins: Total – 43
Tough one here, they’re very similar teams with similar issues at the moment, they both have a lot of WR injuries, but look like they have capable running games, Crowell and the returning McGuire for the Jets and Gore and Drake for the Dolphins. Both teams are adequate on defense making this a tough one to pick. In cases like this I usually lean for the home team. Deontay Burnett is an interesting one for the Jets he got involved last week and played with Darnold in college so there’s a small connection there. Also, Chris Herndon IV has scored 3 weeks running now, best of 7/2 isn’t amazing though.
Dolphins win, mainly due to being better than other teams in the heat and humidity in Florida. Nothing on spread or total
Steelers (+3) @ Ravens: Total – 47.5
REEEEVEEENNNNNNNGE – The Steelers are a far better team than the one who got smashed at home by the Ravens earlier in the season, they’re into stride and have the defense making some plays finally as well. The Ravens haven’t had a few tough matches in a row and are a better team at home than on the road, they still boast one of the best defenses in the league. I have a feeling this could get a bit messy with the Steelers getting out to a decent lead early on and the Ravens not being able to keep up.
Steelers with the upset, obviously cover.
Lions (+5) @ Vikings: Total – 48.5
The Lions have beaten the Packers and the Patriots (as well as the Dolphins) and lost to the likes of the Jets, Cowboys and the 49ers. It’s normally the other way round under Matthew Stafford, they win the games they should and lose the ones they should. It makes this one very tough as on paper, they shouldn’t be winning this one. The key to beating the Vikings is pass rush and the Lions don’t really have one. Kirk Cousins is having a good season despite throwing half of his passes under pressure due to their awful offensive line. They out-gained the Saints significantly last week and should do again here, the run games will be important for both teams here to establish themselves.
Golden Tate was traded away from the Lions in the week, obvious upticks for Kenny G and Marvin Jones. But the deeper look seems like it’ll be Brandon Powell and TJ Jones taking snaps. – Powell is priced better for us – 12/1 on WillHill, Theo Riddick at 8s is big too. For the Vikings it looks like Stefon Diggs could miss out, so surely a bump for Rudolph, Treadwell (yards are low on PP) Aldrick Robinson and even Brandon Zylstra at 20s.
Tough call once again, but I’ve got to take the Vikings at home. Nothing on spread, lean over on the total.
Falcons (+2) @ Redskins: Total – 48
Another tough one, the Redskins have shut down run games recently, allowing less than 100 yards to Zeke, Barkley and McCaffrey combined. That doesn’t affect the Falcons too much as they don’t have too much of a run game at the moment, and DJ Swearinger is pretty good in the secondary for them vs the pass, and the addition of Haha Clinton-Dix further adds to the secondary. This game could go either way depending on the Falcons being able to score, if they can score then I don’t think the Redskins can keep up, if they are held then the Redskins could grind it out.
I think… (think) I’ll have to lean to the Falcons and the unders.
Texans (+2.5) @ Broncos: Total – 46
Von Miller and Bradley Chubb vs the utterly offensive offensive line of the Texans? That’s the key here, if the Broncos get pressure on Watson, and they really should do, then it’ll even things out a little. On the other side of it, Watson looked very mobile last week and should be able to keep out of danger as much as possible. Courtland Sutton steps up a notch after the trade of Demaryius Thomas… coincidentally to the Texans, to replace Will Fuller who is out for the season now. The Texans defense should get their fair share of sacks as well. I was hoping for Deshaun Watson to be around 20 rushing yards as he’ll be under pressure and will have to scramble to evade it so figured some running would be needed, and I found it at RedzoneSports – o20.5 rushing yards on there at 10/11 (32.5 on PP is you wanted to try and middle it)
The Texans are the better team, it’s tough at Mile high, but I lean Texans.
Chargers (+2) @ Seahawks: Total – 48
Another cracking looking game for this weekend, I’ve been very surprised by the Seahawks so far this season, I thought they’d struggle to get to 8 wins which now seems likely. They have been running the ball very well and limiting Russell Wilson’s throwing but he’s been accurate and using the pass very well when needed. David Moore will score. It’s rhymes and it’s true. The Chargers should have Melvin Gordon back after their bye week for the run game, and their pass game is one of the better facets in the league, they’re a very useful team. Gimme some more… David Moore o31.5 rec. yards on PP, and like him to score again as well.
Arrrrgh this week could go either way, I get 90% or I could lose them all. This one? I’ve switched on this one to the Seahawks at home.
Rams (+1.5) @ Saints: Total – 60
The line in this one suggests the Rams are the better team by about 5 points. I guess that’s probably about right against the second best team in the division. The Saints, especially at home are a dangerous team, they relied on Kamara and Ingram last week, with Brees barely throwing. That’ll be different this week they’ll need to keep up with the Rams offense. Gurley will score again, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 3rd stringer Josh Reynolds get in again either. Oh, the Rams added further to their roster with Dante Fowler strengthening their pass rush even more this week. They’re all in this year.
Rams win, lean to the OVERS somehow
Packers (+5.5) @ Patriots: Total – 56.5
Brady vs Rodgers! A matchup rarely seen, in fact this is just the second time they’ll have faced each other, Rodgers won the previous one 4 years ago, but it was a close match! This one will be close as well, both are playing well on offense, the defenses haven’t been bad either. Sony Michel being fit will swing it in the Pats favour for me, the run game was anaemic this week without out, they used Cordarelle Patterson to not great effect, and struggled against the Bills. The Packers had a hardfought loss to the Rams which could have been different, Rodgers kept up well enough and the defenses slowed the Rams well. 7/1 on C Patt looks good, but only seems to be at Betstars.
Pats are at home so I’ll be picking them, ignoring the spread, and lean under.
Titans (+6.5) @ Cowboys: Total – 41
Cowboys are at home. They’ll win. Probably under, at least we’ll all be able to get a full night sleep, either you don’t bother getting up because this is trash, or you get up and instantly fall back to sleep watching this garbage.
Good luck with whatever you’re on, I’m on a yardage 5 fold and had a dart at some longshot TD guys as well.
Remember to join the Draftkings league if you want a go at daily fantasy! – 11/20 in there as we speak, should get it filled – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/63206531