Last week we past through the halfway point for the season, so I thought I had better have a look back at the pre-season predictions and a few of the tips I posted back then, without even checking I know the Bills somehow winning a game in the first month killed off one bet, still not entirely sure how that happened!
- Buffalo Bills u6 wins – Paddypower – 5/6 – 5 pts
- Bills, Seahawks and Raiders unders – 4/1 – 3pts
- Steelers to win their first 4 games – 5/2 – 3 pts
- AJ Green 1,000+ rec. yards and 10+ TDs – 7/1 – 2pts
- Most Sacks: V.Miller, Most Rookie Pass Yards: J.Rosen, Most Rush Yards: E.Elliot – 200/1 – 0.5 pts
- Vikings and Rams to win their divisions – 4.01/1 – 3 pts
- Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North – 2.63 (13/8) – 4 pts
Bills unders still looks locked on, the Seahawks are the worry on the unders treble, the Steelers lost in their first 4 games. AJ Green injury has shit on that one.
Vikings and Rams are looking good to win their respective decisions and I’m still pretty confident on the Vikings winning theirs, so not all bad there.
- Phillip Rivers – 12/1 EW – William Hill – 4pts EW
- James Garoppolo – 20/1 EW – William Hill – 2pts EW
- Marcus Mariota – 100/1 EW – Betfred – 0.5pt EW
- Patrick Mahomes over 4,000 passing yards – 2/1 – Skybet – 3pts
Not going too well here frankly, Rivers is playing some of the best football of his career, but a lot of their scoring is through Melvin Gordon on the ground, he’s down in 13th at the moment, a few hundred yards off paying for us. Obviously the Jimmy G one is done, and the less said about my thoughts on the Titans the better.
Paddy homes over 4,000 yards has practically landed barring a catastrophic injury.
- Ezekiel Elliott – 9/2 – Betfred – 5pts
- David Johnson – 16/1 – Skybet – 3pts EW
- Derrius Guice – 80/1 EW – Skybet – 0.5pt
I did not expect Todd Gurley to be blowing up to this extent. Zeke is in 4th at the moment 200 yards behind having played a game less. DJ, well the offense there is atrocious, and obviously Guice is out for the season
- Antonio Brown – 7/2 – RedZoneSports – 4 points
- DeAndre Hopkins – 10/1 – Skybet/Betfred – 1pt EW
- Keenan Allen – 14/1 – Skybet – 1pt EW
- TY Hilton – 25/1 EW – Skybet – 1pt EW
- Doug Baldwin – 50/1 EW – Betfred – 0.5pt EW
Nuk is third, 50 yards behind Thielen at the top of the charts at the moment. AB down in 15th, Keenan Allen in 18th. TY Hilton has been out for a few games with injury, Baldwin got injured before the season which hit his chances a little. This one is still easily alive with Hopkins.
Divisional previews –
AFC North – I had the Steelers to win it, which looks inevitable now, I had the Bengals o5.5 wins, that’s going to happen. Carl Lawson o7.5 sacks isn’t going to happen as he’s out for the season and in fairness hadn’t done much before it stat-wise, and as above AJ Green RaB is done.
AFC East – I was all against the Bills here and it looks like it should pay off, I had them to lose the first 6, somehow didn’t win. Them and the Buccs to both finish bottom of their divisions, looking good, Bills u5.5 wins, yep, and Dolphins to win the division at 18s. They should finish second so I’ve got that bit right by the look of it.
AFC South – I had the Texans to win it… looking good. The two bets I had on the season here though were Titan o359 points. That seems very unlikely, they’ve been awful offensively. And Deshaun Watson 5+ rushing TDs, he’s only got the 1 at the moment, the lung injury has restricted his rushing over the last month.
AFC West – It took me a while choosing between the Chargers and the Chiefs in the West, in the end I plumped for the Chargers as the Chiefs defense worried me, that’s still factually correct I just didn’t realise quite how good that offense would be! I was very down on the Raiders though which is looking quite accurate. I took Mahomes o3950 (the 4000 yard bet had long gone) and Oakland to finish 4th position, somehow at 21/10
NFC North – This was all written before the Khalil Mack trade, even so I had the Vikings to win it, Packers, Bears, and Lions bottom, not horrible predictions. My bets on this division, Bears o295 was one I posted on twitter a lot earlier in the summer, they’re on 235 and averaging nearly 30 points per game. Awesome, and the Vikings and Rams to both make the playoffs at 5/4
NFC East – I had the Eagles top, er, also the Giants finishing second… bets were Eagles/Giants forecast, whoops. And Dak Prescott 5+ rushing TDs at 7/4. He’s on two for the season so far.
NFC South – Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Buccs was the order I had them at…bets on this one, Dirk Koetter to be the first coach fired… damn you Hue Jackson. Buffalo and Tampa to finish bottom of their divisions, may as well pay me now on that one, and Panthers to finish 3rd, if it wasn’t for the Falcons defensive injuries that one would look a lot more likely
NFC West – Rams to win it. The rest of the preview has been screwed up because of the niners injuries, we had them 2nd obviously with a fit Jimmy G. In fact Seahawks u8.5 wins was my only individual bet on this division, still possible but they have been far better than I expected this year.
So from my previews, about 2,000 words on each division, I’m currently getting 7 out of the 8 winners of the divisions correct, the Chargers being the only one currently wrong and they’re only second because the Chiefs are phenomenal at the moment. I am pretty fucking happy with that! (In fact the 6 fold I have on division winners is looking very healthy at the moment! £5.60 was available for about £130 cashout at the moment…)
Looking forward –
Looking to the future and trying to find some value is rarely easy, but there’s a few outliers in my eyes. Guest post by Ben Burke – Mid-season statistical review – I’ve referred to this post with regards to strength of schedule going forward…
It looks like there’s only really a couple of spots up for grabs. The AFC looks like it will be Pittsburgh, NE, KC, The Chargers…one of the AFC South, and then one other wildcard spot – Ravens, Bengals, AFC South competitor seemingly the competition in the AFC. – The NFC is more competitive, the Rams and Saints are pretty much locked in. The East is a mess, the North is looking tough. I think the Vikings win the North and it looks like the wildcards will come from the North and South. The Eagles really should win the East now the Redskins have guys off the street at offensive line.
It seems you can parlay the division winners on Paddypower, which is good.
The AFC South is a weird one, the Texans are top and on a 6 game winning streak but are far from impressive in doing it, the Jags have been awful, the Titans not much better, in fact the Colts have been the best to watch this season. All the division have an easy schedule. The Colts are the most interesting, especially at the price (16/1 to win the division at Betstars, 14/1 at Will Hill is the best of the bigger guys) – It’s pretty much in their hands, they have the Titans twice, the Jags twice and the Texans once in their final 8 games, the others being Cowboys, Giants and Dolphins. You’d probably have them favourite in more than half of these games. They’re 3 games back on the Texans and will need to win their game against them to have a chance of this coming in, but at the odds it’s the best to have in this division. The Colts are 5/1 to make the playoffs on Betfair/PP, they’d need probably 10 wins to get a wildcard spot? I’d imagine the Chargers will be 11+ wins, then it would need the Colts to beat whomever is second in the AFC North. If they get 10 wins they’ll probably win the division, so I think that’s the more logical bet.
The NFC South is interesting too, the Saints should win it, especially after the Panthers got destroyed in Pittsburgh last night, but these two teams play each other twice in the final 3 games of the season which could still be important. The Falcons are the interesting ones here, they got killed with injuries in the first few weeks of the season which ruined any chance they had of winning the division. BUT They seem to have solidified a little and Matt Ryan is having one of the best years of his career at QB which has made them very fun to watch in high scoring games. There’s two ways to play this, either take the “to make the playoffs” market at betfair/PP – The Falcons are 2/1 on there, or take them to win the NFC – You can get 25/1 on them at WillHill for this, and still go EW on them. IF they get a wildcard then you should be able to cash out, or use Betprophet.co for a decent price, or let it ride and see how it goes.
The Eagles really should win the NFC East, the Cowboys and Giants are shit, the Redskins are atop at the moment but have been decimated at offensive line, that’s what cost them last year, so getting EVENS on them to do so looks like a good price. The face the Redskins twice, Cowboys twice, Giants, Saints, Rams, Texans. Not an easy one schedule. It’s actually a lot tougher than the rest of the division have left (11th according to Ben on his half season review)
I still think the Vikings will win the NFC North, but it’s not been as easy as I thought it would be for them, they tied with the Packers on the road which was a good result looking back at it, they have beaten the Lions and have to play the Bears twice still, they’re the games that will decide things. The Bears are better than I expected, but I have them ranked a few fair spots lower than the Vikings still. The Vikings are typically a second half of the season team and the late bye week (week 10) should help them, especially compared to the Bears who had theirs in week 5. They’ve been getting better and better on defense and the rest this week will help Thielen get his health back as he was a bit banged up in the last game they played. They’ve actually got a rough schedule, Bears twice, Packers, Lions, Pats, Seahawks are all difficult the only cupcake is the Dolphins – In fact in terms of teams records it’s rated as the 2nd hardest schedule remaining. The Bears have the Giants and 49ers as easier matches. Packers have Jets and Cardinals… so it won’t be easy for them, but 11/10 is still tempting.
The strength of schedule numbers worry me a little, I have to admit, but trebling the Eagles with the Vikings to win the North at 11/10 and the Steelers to win the AFC North gives you a treble around 9/2 on Paddypower.
- Colts to win the AFC South – 14/1 (WillHill) – 2 points
- Eagles to win the NFC East – 1/1 (Ladbrokes/Victor (cunts)) – 4 points
- Eagles,Vikings,Steelers to win their divisions – 9/2 – 2 points
Season Awards –
Just a skim over these really. Mahomes (13/10 betstars) or Brees (4/1 PP) should win the MVP. I would like to think they’ll give it to Brees as Mahomes has probably 15 years to win one yet Drew somehow has never been given the award. If I was to bet on one, it’d be the value on Brees. The only way it’s neither of these is if Gurley (9/2) sets records. It’s possible but it’s so tough for it to be any position other than QB.
OROY – None of the QBs have impressed to any real level. I posted Darnold to win it on twitter when it was announced he’d be the starter in week 1. I cashed that out in week 4. Barkley is in at 4/6 on Skybet now. I think the only way he doesn’t win is injury or Mayfield wins out for the Browns. Phillip Lindsay would be a nice one to win it at 25/1 but very unlikely. One to keep an eye on for a couple of weeks in case someone starts blowing up.
That’s about all you can bet on in the UK in season. I think Luck wins comeback player of the year and Coach of the year should go to McVay, but could well go to Sean Payton. It’s an award I avoid as it should really be Belichick every year, but they usually give it to someone who’s over performed so it could be Nagy at the Bears as well, or Pete Carroll… we can’t back it anyway.
I briefly mentioned BetProhpet.co above – They’re a new company setting up who will allow you to sell your futures tickets for prices far better than the bookies will offer you on cash out – For example, the division winners bet I’ve got on at Skybet who are offering around £130 cash out, I spoke to the CEO of Prophet and was told they’d be able to offer £230 on that ticket as it stands. That’s a considerable price increase. They will also allow you to sell a percentage of your ticket so you can still keep skin in the game if you wanted to. You can signup now for the chance to be one of the first to use the service. It’s the kind of thing you could use on some of the bets I’ve mentioned above, say you took the Falcons to win the NFC bet, if they make the playoffs you could part-sell the ticket to get some profit and leave the rest to ride.