Week 17 – There’s a lot to play for!

Somehow it’s the final week of the season?! I haven’t updated the spreadsheet in a few weeks, but think we’re sitting in profit on the year, this week is particularly murky and unfortunately the bookies know it, Skybet especially are offering shocking odds on anytime scorers.

This week is all about trying to figure out who is motivated, who may rest players, who may go for it, who needs the win, who just doesn’t care. It’s a tough one to decipher. The AFC in particular has a hell of a lot of permutations. I’ll try and address most of them on here, admittedly a spreadsheet would help, you may be able to find one, but honestly, it’s Christmas time and I haven’t got the minutes to put into it.

Safe to say staying on low stakes is probably the best idea this week.

At time of writing – 1930 on Sat night, there only seems to be Skybet and Paddypower offering player lines, and bet365 have frankly been a shambles over the last few weeks, offering only 1st TD scorer on some games. Ridiculous.


Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A nothing game here, I guess the Buccs as Jameis may be able to keep himself in Tampa with a good performance. – TAMPA

Only one who interested me here with Jacquizz Rodgers anytime, he seemed to get a lot of goal line action last week from what I saw on Redzone. (5/1 on PP)

Carolina Panthers (+7.5) @ New Orleans Saints

3rd String QB vs Backups for the Saints – SAINTS

Nothing for me on this one, it looks like Teddy B will be starting so probably worth looking for other 2nd stringers for the Saints for anytime scorers, my one lean was Ben Watson as he’s retiring after this year and this could be a good way to get him a score before he leaves the game. (7/2 on Skybet best at the moment)

Dallas Cowboys (+6) @ New York Giants

Dallas have locked up the NFC East and the #4 seed, I’d imagine they’ll rest players, Saquon is looking to finish the year strong. Usually only a few points between these teams, a close one – GIANTS

Cowboys have said they’re not resting players, but the books haven’t even bothered listing Zeke this week, Rod Smith the backup RB at odds-on is horrible though. Odds on everyone in this game suck tbh.

Detroit Lions (+8) @ Green Bay Packers

Another meaningless game. Lions have no RBs, or WRs, or TE, except for Golladay. Rodgers wants to finish the season strong and work in his young WRs for next year – PACKERS

Urgh, this game is shit. Davante Adams is questionable but needs 2 receptions to equal a Packers record for season receptions, I wouldn’t be shocked if he got those catches then rested. Should open positions for the backups, my boy Kumerow scored last week but 9/2 is horrible.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) @ Houston Texans

Texans need to win to secure the division. I’d expect the Jags to put up a bit of a fight in a divisional rivalry against a poor offensive line but while trying to screw over a rival should be quite good motivation I can see them taking Fournette out (He’s already on the injury report with his ankle) The Texans are struggling with injuries all over the field but will be hoping to have a few back this week. Unbelievably they could be anything from the #1-#6 seed depending on how results go today, so it’s safe to say they’ll be motivated. I don’t think it’s one I’d bet on with all their injuries but – TEXANS

Fournette questionable, so why risk him. They know what they’ve got in Hyde, and Yeldon was a healthy scratch last week, so maybe David Williams who I mentioned last week? 27/4 isn’t worth risking, frankly. D’Onta Foreman scored last week, he’s at 27/4 as well, both on Redzone. Lamar Miller looks like he’ll be back for the Texans.

Miami Dolphins (+4.5) @ Buffalo Bills

Dolphins aren’t good on the road, it’ll be cold up North as well. The Bills haven’t had anything to play for all year but have been entertaining with Josh Allen at QB – BILLS

Who cares? Isaiah McKenzie was the one I looked at here, 4/1 on PP.

In fact. Isaiah McKenzie o29.5 rec. yards (PP) – 3 points

New York Jets (13.5) @ New England Patriots

Brady doesn’t look good, Gronk looks like an old man out there. Edelman is a year older and isn’t catching everything any more. The Pats will probably look to ground and pound with Michel, Burkhead and White for the majority of this game. The Jets have a tiny flicker of light at the end of the tunnel with Darnold putting in a couple of good performances, he, Robby Anderson and Elijah McGuire have looked above average in the last few weeks. – The Pats could be 1-4 seed and need the bye to make the playoffs. I wouldn’t back that spread but – PATRIOTS

I’m personally on C Patt at 11/1, now down at 9/2 and he’s been on the injury report, so might not get many snaps. Could well be wasted money. Deontay Burnett isn’t one for me, but Skip loved him at big odds earlier in the day, now a best of 8/1 on Unibet for him. Michel 10/11 (RZ), White, 7/5 (RZ), Rex 5/2 (PP) – One of them at least will score.

Arizona Cardinals (+13) @ Seattle Seahawks

I’ve got to think the Cardinals would prefer to lose this one to secure the #1 pick in the draft, but they won’t need to try to lose, they’re the worst team in football. The Seahawks will be the 5 seed and play the Cowboys at Dallas with a win, a loss means they’ll probably face the Bears. I know what I’d prefer – SEAHAWKS

Ed Dickson 6/1 on Vannett at 13/2, I think one of them will score.

Chicago Bears (+4.5) @ Minnesota Vikings

Bears can finish at 2 or 3 seed and face a likely rematch of this game at their own stadium. A win could possibly get them a bye week depending on the Rams result, although that seems unlikely. The Vikings are very good at home, especially on defense, however their offensive line has been poor. Luckily they are now running Dalvin Cook a lot more and he’s got the talent to bounce it outside away from the interior pass rush from the Bears, I might still be clinging to my Vikings to win the SB bet, but – VIKINGS

Adam Shaheen – 8/1 (Betfred) – 2 points

Cincinnati Bengals (14.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Wow. Bengals the biggest underdog of the week. The Bengals will definitely be up for this one, you don’t often get a chance to stop your scumbag neighbours getting into the playoffs, but they could give 120% and still not get anywhere near beating a far healthier and talented team. The Steelers offensive line should be able to stop Big Ben getting touched, Juju will be looking to redeem himself after costing his team the win last week so I’d expect a big game from him, and frankly it shouldn’t matter who’s at RB for them, Samuel or Connor will score at least once – STEELERS

Odds are shit on everyone. Matt Lengel 50/1 on 365, 5/1 on Skybet… Weird. Eli Rogers probably isn’t bad at 27/4 on Redzone, especially with AB questionable.

Cleveland Browns (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

This is probably the most interesting game of the night. The Ravens win the division with a victory. A loss means they miss the playoffs completely. Since Lamar Jackson came into the league no-one has been able to slow down Lamar Jackson and this run offense, it leaves teams with a league-low drives against them meaning they have to be far more efficient, you’ve got to expect more of the same frankly, and the Ravens defense is top 3 in the league as well. It will be the biggest challenge Baker has faced, it’s safe to say he won’t shy away from it, but there will probably be a few INTs thrown by him, he hasn’t dealt too well under pressure so far either. The Browns will be fully up for this one though, as with the Bengals they have the chance to play spoiler and finish on a high. I really want the Ravens to win so might be projecting, the Browns do worry me – RAVENS

Quite like Breshad Perriman – 12/1 (365) – 1 point he’s had a couple of catches per game usually down the field.

Los Angeles Chargers (-6) @ Denver Broncos

The Chargers are either #1 or #5 seed, most likely 5th seed as I can’t see the Chiefs losing to the Raiders at home. They should deal with the Broncos here, although if it was me and I got news the Chiefs were 21 pts up at half time, I’d probably rotate in the second half. Not one I’d bet on. – CHARGERS

Brian Parker at 16/1 the only one I’d consider. Matt LaCosse was a scratch last week giving Paker the TE spot, he didn’t do much but he was out there at least.

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs have win to secure the top seed, a bye and home-field through-out. Taking on the Raiders isn’t the end to the season that the league might have expected when the schedules were released – CHIEFS

Not even an interest.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) @ Washington Redskins

Big dick Nick strolling in swinging has giant dong around and fucking shit up. What a guy. Throwing for over 450 yards last week against the Texans an leading his team to two consecutive wins to keep them vaguely in the hunt for the playoffs. They still need help but there’s a chance thanks to him. Josh Johnson and the Redskins haven’t been awful themselves despite being decimated with injuries that have derailed their season. I don’t see how the Redskins will be able to cope against a strangely effective Eagles offense. I’ve got to mention Darren Sproles though. It could be his last game but he looked great last week so expect to see more of him again and one I’ll be targeting for a TD – EAGLES (NAP)

Darren Sproles – 23/10 (Ladbrokes) – 3 points. Got a lot of the ball last week, possibly his last game for the team. Apparently Gruden is going to give Perine a bit of the ball… 50/1 on 365 if you choose to believe that!

San Francisco 49ers (+10) @ Los Angeles Rams

The Rams need to win to guarantee the #2 seed and all that comes with it. A loss could make them 3 seed and possibly face the Vikings. They won’t want that. The 49ers have actually had a good season given the amount of injuries. Nick Mullens has looked good, their RBs are inter-changable, although Breida is the best of them, he’s finally been allowed to rest as he and Pettis are on IR. The Rams have been stuttering recently, but whether it’s CJ Anderson or Todd Gurley they’ll win here – RAMS

Gurley out, CJ Anderson in again, last time I checked the odds… 2/11 for him anytime. Ridiculous. 4/7 now the best for him. Josh Reynolds – 3/1 (Skybet) – 2 points. 

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Tennessee Titans

Potentially the biggest game of the night, potentially nothing riding on it at all. It all depends on the Texans result earlier in the day. Amazingly the Titans could secure the #2 seed with a win and a few things going their way elsewhere and either team could still clinch the AFC South… It’s a very complicated AFC picture! Anyway, to this game. I think both teams will be looking to run the ball, Henry and Mack have been 2 of the best backs over the last month, that should make for fewer offensive plays from both teams, but Andrew Luck is better than Mariota when called upon so for that reason, even on the road I’ve got to lean to the Colts winning, he’s 10-0 against the Titans in his career – notch up no.11 – COLTS

Nuttin.


 

Summary –

Anytimes –

  • Adam Shaheen – 8/1 (Betfred) – 2 points
  • Breshad Perriman – 12/1 (365) – 1 point
  • Darren Sproles – 23/10 (Ladbrokes) – 3 points
  • Josh Reynolds – 3/1 (Skybet) – 2 points

Player props –

  • Isaiah McKenzie o29.5 rec. yards (PP) – 3 points

So, not a lot to finish off the regular season, a lot of weirdness about and the bookies aren’t taking any chances on prices so not a whole lot of value about either.

Probably won’t get online until 5pm tomorrow so not a lot of time to check things tomorrow, might be able to get a bit of late team news where there may be the slightest value.

Good luck if you’re on anything tomorrow, keep an eye on team news through the day!

Final Draftkings of the season – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/67016390

Thanks for reading all year, here’s to the playoffs!!!!

 

Adam.

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