Week 16 – Briefs and tips

Well, what a night last night was on the blog picks! – Mark Andrews at 14s, Michael Floyd at 25s!!! The TD score gave us the Andrews yards as well obviously, Firkser finished half a yard short of 16.5, but Tyrell Williams only had the one catch for 12 yards as the Chargers did their best Chargers impression and lost at home to the Ravens. So just the 40 points or so of profit!


Bengals (+7 +10) @ Browns: 44

Well, this line has moved considerably. The pros love the Browns and this week they’re right to. The Bengals lost their only reliable passing option with Tyler Boyd likely to miss the rest of the year. So they’ll have Erickson, Cody Core, Auden Tate, Josh Malone, all those household stars playing this week. Joe Mixon has been brilliant recently and he’ll have to get another 25 touches this week for the Bengals to get on the scoreboard here. BUT The Browns hate Hue Jackson and rookie Baker Mayfield has been great in recent weeks. They took a 28 point lead in the first half when they played a month ago and I can see them winning this at a canter – BROWNS – NAP (Never thought I’d say that)

My god, the Browns as double digit favourites?! What crazy world is this! It’s been a decade since they were this favourited. They should probably cover it tbh! There’s nothing worth it on the Bengals side of the ball, I think they’ll have a WR corp of John Ross, Cody Core, Josh Malone and Alex Erickson. Malone scored a last year but has been injured most of this, I like him. For the Browns? Well you’re looking at most of them to score tbh. I don’t think you can go wrong starting an acca with Chubb (4/7 Sky), he’s scored in 6 of his last 8 games and got two against the Bengals a month ago. Bigger prices for them? The outsiders are all too short tbh.

Nick Chubb anytime – 4/7 (Skybet) 1/3 on a treble. 

Buccaneers (+7) @ Cowboys: 48

The Cowboys have a good home record, but the Colts showed how to beat them last week, shut down Zeke and slow down Amari Cooper and they’ve got practically nothing but while I think the Buccs have a good front 7 I don’t think they’re capable of doing that task. DeSean Jackson should be back for Tampa, but who cares.  COWBOYS

D Jax is back, but there’s still little of any interest on the Buccs side of the ball for me frankly. Cameron Brate at 9/4 is probably the guy to look for if you want someone from Tampa, Jameis loves him. Peyton Barber has 4 TDs in 5 games, and is at 7/4 on Betfred. Not awful. The Cowboys side? Add Zeke to Chubb. Blake Jarwin at 11/2 is one to see at a bigger price, he’s been increasing snaps and the other TE Geoff Swaim is now on IR. And if you want to go crazy then Rod Smith is at 25s (365), the RB2 for them. He gets a few carries per week

Zeke anytime – 2/3 on the treble. 

Vikings (-6) @ Lions: 43

The Vikings did exactly what I thought they would with a new OC last week, give the ball to Dalvin Cook. They went from two-thirds passing to two-thirds running and if it wasn’t for a few freak plays (pick 6 and a big return) they’d have won last week by 40. The Lions have been on a downward trajectory for weeks now, the Vikings sacked Matty Stafford 10 times when they met earlier in the season. Golladay is the only plus point for their entire season – they’ll win and cover, but with a likely heavy running game lean to the unders – VIKINGS

Dalvin Cook (10/11 RZ) added to Zeke and Chubb for the treble – Not exciting at 3.14/1 (PI) on Skybet but should be fairly solid. Golladay was listed as questionable for the Lions, if he’s out they have virtually nothing. It could be a very long night for Detriot and a painful one for Stafford. Tyler Conklin at TE for the Vikings is an interesting one, it looks like Rudolph is on his way out after a crap season and they are looking to the future with Conklin, 2 receptions for 53 yards last week for him, so 13/1 on PP isn’t a terrible shout.

Dalvin Cook anytime – 10/11 (Redzone) – 2 points. And as part of the treble with Zeke, Chubb and him – 3.14/1 on Skybet – 2 points. 

Bills (+13.5) @ Patriots: 44.5

The Pats scraped a lucky cover at Buffalo earlier in the year with a late long pick 6. They lost Josh Gordon today who checked himself back into rehab. That guy needs a break from everything to try and sort himself out, the whole thing is a horrible story frankly. But the Pats have been stuttering recently and a big target going out doesn’t help. Brady overthrow badly at the end of last week and Gronk looked 69 years old. The Bills on the other hand have looked relatively good, they would have won last week had it not been for all their RBs dying. McCoy should be back this week which will help Allens’ yards. I’d lean the Bills to cover but – PATRIOTS

Robert Foster is 94+ yards in 4 of his last 5 games, has scored in a couple of them, 4/1 for him? Probably a touch short in all fairness. It seems like the best CB for the Pats, Stephon Gilmore will be covering Zay Jones for some reason, so 44.5 yards for him seems pretty low – 5/6 on Skybet. Keith Ford is probably their RB2 behind McCoy tonight as well with Ivory and Murphy out of the game, he’s available at 12/1 on PP. Nothing much on the Pats front tbh, all pretty short priced given the favouritism, with Gordon out you’ve got to expect a bigger role for C Patt and Hogan, but it’s a watching brief for me on them tonight.

Robert Foster o44.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet) – 2pts. 

Packers (-3) @ Jets: 47

Despite them being officially out of all playoff contention Aaron Rodgers has said he’ll play through injury this week. It probably won’t help them finally win a game on the road as Darnold looked great last week in Houston. Aaron Jones is out for the Packers so Jamaal Williams will have the run game to himself, the passing game hasn’t been great either frankly. Robby Anderson should be good to beat his yard target and possibly a TD. I can’t see this being very high scoring. The Pack haven’t won on the road this season – JETS

The total has jumped up 3 points during the week, I assume after it was confirmed that Rodgers is playing, I’d probably lean under that now.

Jamaal Williams is the remaining RB in Green Bay, he’s at 50.5 rushing yards at the moment on Skybet which looks like a good one. Robby Anderson has been getting a lot more of the ball in recent weeks with Darnold looking more comfortable, he’s 7/4 on Sky and Hills. Davante Adams is the lone bright spot for the Packers, and Rodgers favourite target. 11/10 for him is actually a pretty good price!

Jamaal Williams o50.5 rush yards – 5/6 (Skybet) – 2 pts. Davante Adams anytime – 11/10 (Skybet) – 4 pts. 

Texans (+1 2.5) @ Eagles: 46.5

Quick stat first – The Texans are 0-4, Oilers were 0-7. I’m not sure what’s going to happen here. I think Jeffery will get a lot of targets from Foles as he did last week, the pass rush should be able to worry Watson, but I don’t think the secondary will be able to handle Nuk. So plus and minus on each side of the ball. I think the Eagles win at home, especially if Lamar Miller isn’t fully fit for the Texans. Not one I’d bet on, but a lean to the under – EAGLES

So Lamar Miller and Keke Coutee are both out which jumped the line up a little, the Eagles now nearly a field goal favourite. The are very good against the run at home, so Alfred Blue won’t have an easy night for the Texans, he’s expected to get most of the carries (I missed the price on him, now 6/4), but D’Onta Foreman is likely active for the first time this season, he looked good before doing his Achilles towards the end of last year (5/1 best price on him). Alshon Jeffrey got a ton of targets and over 100 yards last week with Foles back, his line at 54.5 seems low to me so I’ll be taking the over on him at 10/11 on Redzone. The Texans should be pass heavy and DeAndre Hopkins should be able to do it against any of the Eagles corners, he will probably go over 90 yards but I won’t take it.

Alshon Jeffrey o54.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (Redzone) – 2pts. 

Falcons (-3) @ Panthers: 44.5

This game has had a 6 point swing after the announcement that a broken Cam Newton isn’t going to play. That’s a pretty extreme swing from a QB playing very poorly to a backup and frankly all he’ll really need to do is give the ball to McCaffrey. Will CmcC be able to beat the Falcons by himself? Maybe. Both of these teams have essentially packed up for the year so it’s a tough one to pick. PANTHERS get off the snide.

Nothing on the Panthers side with Heinicke at QB. In theory it usually means more for the RB and the TE, so in theory CmcC should do a lot but it’s nothing to put money on, and Ian Thomas might get a bump, 30.5 rec. yards and 11/2 for him. – The Falcons? Urgh, not much there either frankly, I mentioned Brian Hill on the Full10yards pod at 7s, he’s now a best price of 4/1 (Fred/Redzone) The Falcons always use 2 RBs and he’ll be the second tonight. Nah, nothing on here.

Giants (+9.5) @ Colts: 48

The Giants play better on the road, but the Colts shut down Zeke last week. I guess this is a good way to find out how good Saquon is in comparison to one of the best in the league, I think he’ll be fine. It looks like OBJ may miss out again. There’s no reason to play him so it doesn’t surprise me really. Andrew Luck is a shoe-in for Comeback player of the year and should be able to pick apart the Giants. The Colts have the motivational advantage as they’re still after the playoffs. I wouldn’t take the spread but they’ll win – COLTS

OBJ is out again, so should be a bump for Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram who has had more targets recently. But it should be a run heavy gamescript for the Colts, 10/11 on Mack (PP) should be a decent bet for them.

Evan Engram o44.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet) – 2pts, Marlon Mack anytime – 10/11 (PP) – 2pts

Jaguars (+3.5) @ Dolphins: 38

The BATTLE OF FLORIDA!!! The DOLPHINS win and cover.

Cody Kessler ran for more than he passed last week. Atrocious. The Dolphins are far better at home, Frank Gore is out for them this week and it looks like Ballage will get near 15 touches, 9/5 anytime for him on Unibet is the best you’re getting. I was hoping for his yards to be around 50, the only place that has him at the moment is PP at 60.5 so a no-go for now. David Williams is the long-shot I’m after here, he had 6 carries for the Jags in the second half last week when they said they were going to see what they’ve got behind Fournette – 17/1 on PP for him. And then there’s my boy Tommy Bo at 30s, always tempted with him for some stupid reason!

David Williams anytime – 17/1 (PP) – 1pt

Rams (-14) @ Cardinals: 44.5

What is up with the Rams?! Goff? Gurley? Complacency? Probably a bit of each, Gurley seems to be carrying a knock, Goff has lost his confidence and while I don’t think complacency is the word, they’ve joined the Saints and Chiefs in slowing down the hectic pace of earlier in the year. The Cards are probably the worst team in the league though, Rosen is struggling with no O-line and since Christian Kirk went out they’ve not had a lot in the passing game. Fitz will get 5 catches for 63 yards. Got to take the unders, the Cards won’t score much and the Rams I think will be happy with just winning. RAMS

All the Rams are horribly short for obvious reasons. It actually looks like they’ll rest Gurley for tonight, so either CJ Anderson or John Kelly at RB, reports seem to lean towards CJ, but the bookies are on to it, the sneaky fuckers are getting better, so he’s only 4/6 which is un-betable. Josh Reynolds at 7/2 is actually pretty good at CoraLadbrokes. David Johnson is the shortest Cardinal at 5/4, Fitz next at 10/3. The only one I’d consider from that side of the ball would be Chase Edmonds at 18/1 on Skybet. Fitz usually does better at home and he’s at 49.5 on Skybet and Redzone, in probably his last game there for the Cardinals, I expect him to retire in the summer.

Josh Reynolds anytime – 7/2 (Ladbrokes) – 2pts, Chase Edmonds anytime – 18/1 (Skybet) – 1pt.

Bears (-4.5) @ 49ers: 44

The Bears beat the Pack at home for the first time in 9 attempts in winning the NFC North last week but they still have an outside chance of a bye week. It could be motivation for them or they could have spent the week celebrating and getting smashed. The Niners have shown signs of life and whisper it quietly but apparently Mullens has a better QBR during this winning run than Jimmy G did in his win streak last year. He’s looked good with limited weapons. Whether he’ll look quite so good with the Bears pass rush in his face is a different question, I’ve got to take the BEARS to win but frankly wouldn’t be shocked if this was an upset. BEARS

Nothing on the 49ers side against this defense, and frankly nothing on the Bears side as I can never get a read on what they’re going to do week-to-week. Chicago D/ST at 9/2 on PP probably not an awful bet. I think you’ve got to lean u70.5 yards for Kittle.

Steelers (+6) @ Saints: 52.5

Game of the week involving the scumbags again. Juju has found himself on the injury report so worth keeping an eye on that, this should be a good game for him as Lattimore will surely be on AB leaving Juju with the poorer CB. Whomever the RB is for the Steelers they seem to play well but coming up against one of the best run D’s in the league it’ll be interesting to see exactly how good they are at that, James Connor could be back apparently. The Steelers pass rush should have success as the Saints may be without 2 of their offensive line and TJ Watt and friends are pretty good. Brees hasn’t topped has a high of 203 yards in his last 4 games and has an INT in each. However the defense has stepped up, allowing just over 13 pts a game over that span. Got to take the unders here, as for a winner? Very tough, but road Ben vs home Drew – SAINTS

This game has so much more riding on it now for the Steelers after the Ravens won last night, they NEED to win it. It’s worth noting that most of the down games for the Saints offense recently have been on the road, he’s always been a home QB to back, last home game he threw to 4 randoms for TDs. Keenan Allen blew up the Steelers in the slot after they kept putting line backers on him, will they be stupid enough to do that again? If so Michael Thomas is a must-bet inplay. Juju popped up on the injury list with a groin injury but he’s said he’s playing, if he happens to go out then you’re looking at Eli Rogers (5/2 RZ), James Washington (15/2 PP) to pick up the slack but Big Ben doesn’t like Washington, maybe even Ryan Switzer in the slot (8/1 Fred).

I don’t think I’ve got anything to bet on this one, I just want to enjoy it and hope for a Saints win frankly.

Chiefs (-2) @ Seahawks: 55

Sunday night is finishing on a high, this should also be a great game. The 12s welcome in a Chiefs team who now need to win this and their last game to cement the #1 seed in the AFC. The bad thing for bettors is that they’ll know whether they need to win this one or not as the Chargers play earlier in the day. Personally I think the Chiefs are still the best team in the conference and they should be able to get pressure on Wilson, and I think they’ll score, so may be worth looking at the overs on Wilson passing yards. Definitely one to avoid on the betting again but I fancy the CHIEFS and the under.

Should also be a great game, the Chiefs are in a better place now with the Chargers losing, but still need a win to seal the division and the #1 seed. I think Ware will be out so it’ll be the Williams brothers at RB again, Damien is odds-on (4/7 best price?!) Darrel is 10/3 (Skybet) Tyreek Hill is better on the road, he’s evens to score. The Seahawks side is tough. They are run, a lot. It’s what they want to do but if they’ve got to keep up with the Chiefs they’ll have to pass and Doug Baldwin is finally looking like he’s back healthy, he had 77 yards and 2 TDs last week, taking him to 4 in 4 games. 15/8 is actually not an awful price on him.

Doug Baldwin anytime – 15/8 (Sky/Hills) – 2pts


Summary –

Anytime scorers –

  • Dalvin Cook – 10/11 (Redzone) – 2pts
  • Davante Adams – 11/10 (Skybet) – 4 pts
  • Marlon Mack – 10/11 (PP) – 2pts
  • David Williams – 17/1 (PP) – 1pt
  • Josh Reynolds – 7/2 (Ladbrokes) – 2pts
  • Chase Edmonds – 18/1 (Skybet) – 1pt
  • Doug Baldwin – 15/8 (Sky/Hills) – 2pts

Anytime treble –

  • Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliot, Dalvin Cook – 3.1415927/1 (Skybet) – 2pts

Player props – 2 points on each –

  • Robert Foster o44.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet)
  • Jamaal Williams o50.5 rush yards – 5/6 (Skybet)
  • Alshon Jeffrey o54.5 rec. yards – 10/11 (Redzone)
  • Evan Engram o44.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Skybet)

24 points total – A little higher than most weeks due to the fact I’m playing with house money after last night, so have gone for a little more.

Good Luck if you follow along, I’d be amazed if it goes as well as last night in all honesty, but we can hope!

Merry Christmas everyone, thanks for reading through the year and enjoy the holidays!


Get in the Draftkings league – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/66650362

 

Adam Walford.

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