A little introspection

As I try to keep things transparent on here I generally try and have a look back at the year once it’s over and see how it all went.

It was an up-and-down year, I started really poorly, and by the end of week 5 I was 50 points down, something that isn’t really acceptable. I clawed it back to hit nearly 67 points profit at one point in the season before falling off a bit again toward the end of the season, to finish the season on 60 points profit. Not bad overall, however I did lost week 5 somehow, I’m assuming it was a loss as things weren’t going well at the moment. So assuming a 10-15 point loss for that week I’m going to say I finished the regular season on 45-50 points profit. The post-season didn’t go too well though finishing on 46 points profit (minus the assumption of week 5, around 30 points profit on the year)

Profit/Loss spreadsheet – For anyone wanting to have a look at it.

I placed 304 bets with 105 of them winning. – A third. Not amazing, but when you consider the average odds of around 9/1 and most of them being over Evens, it’s not terrible.

127 of the 304 total were Anytime TD scorer bets – 38 of them won. Around 1 in 3. Again not an amazing strike rate, but the large majority of them were over Evens. Michael Floyd at 25/1 being the highest odds recommended.


So for the year going forward, I’m a little conflicted on the best thing to do, obviously I want to increase the strike rate, but logically to do that I would be reducing the odds and the selections each week. But then we miss out on the big priced TD scorers, which I personally believe is what a lot of people come here for. I know full-well that I probably tip too much on a weekly basis, but because of the nature of the bets and the odds I try and look for value and if I feel it’s there in general I’ll be tipping it.

I will be tipping for MrFixIt’s website – https://mrfixitstips.co.uk/ – next year, that will be self-restricted to a maximum of 5 bets per Sunday night, so I think I’ll keep that to my favourite 5 bets of the week and keep this website as is to give people a few more ideas of things to back on a weekly basis. The strike-rate probably won’t be too high, but the returns should still be there as they were this year eventually.

So in conclusion – Finishing with 30 odd points profit isn’t awful. I’ll probably keep things as they are. I’ll be changing the P/L sheet slightly to make it easier to track bet categories. I think I’ll have them a little more simplified next year as Props/Anytime TDs/Other, I also edited the summary at the end of each sheet as well to tidy that up a little.


Look out for the draft posts coming up over the next month or so, the combine is pretty much done with. It’s looking increasingly likely that Kyler Murray will be the first pick and that DK Metcalf will be the WR1. The RBs failed to impress in general so that will be a tough area to pick, it seems like Josh Jacobs is the best of a seemingly poor bunch. Just waiting for bookies to start pricing things up on the draft, but with it being 7 weeks or so away it might take a while for that to happen.

Cheers,

Adam.

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