Draft talk and props

It’s nearly time for the draft and I’ve been keeping en eye on what’s going on, rumours, little whispers and of course the millions of mock drafts available on the internet. People getting angry about mock drafts are one of my favourite things of the off season. “How dare you have a different opinion to me” or generally “How dare you pick someone different to see how things pan out” Great fun for nerds.

There’s always a few markets available, Skybet, Paddypower, Unibet, Betway all have a few up already. The Draft takes place on Thursday the 25th and finishes late Saturday.

1st Overall pick. 

This seems very likely to be Kyler Murray and increasingly I’m thinking it will be the Cardinals trading away Rosen and taking Murray. Either way if it’s not them, the only reason to move up to #1 would be to take a QB and while the others QBs seem to be dropping in general consensus Murray is staying solid at the top of it all. 1/4 for Murray now to be first overall is now prohibitively priced though, so not worth staking on. – However. If you fancy the Cardinals to maybe trade down, which in fairness is something they need to do (they have more gaps in their roster than any other team) Then you’re looking at Nick Bosa at 9/2 or Quinnen Williams at 14/1 (Both on 365). Bosa has been the defacto #2 in most mocks, he’s posted a few weird things on twitter though, and Quinnen Williams seems to be atop a lot of big boards. Obviously they’re both long shots as if the Cards trade down it will likely be for someone to take a QB.

2nd Overall pick,

With #1 being out of running for a bet for me personally, we obviously move on to 2nd pick. Again this one seems fairly likely to be one man, edge rusher Nick Bosa. He’s obviously the brother of Joey Bosa who was drafted at 3 by the Chargers a couple of years back, and averaged roughly the same sacks per game in college.

Unless there are some big trades then it seems likely the Josh Allen and Quinnen Williams will fill out the top 4. Getting to the QB is arguably the second most important thing in the NFL these days and Josh Allen is the second best edge rusher in the class. Williams comes from the ‘Bama defensive production line and is very highly regarded, the hype on him has been growing by the day as well.

1st of a certain position.

These are all a bit of nothing at the moment as well from what I have heard/read.

  • 1st RB seems to be fairly set as Josh Jacobs – a true dual threat, not a whole lot of tape on him as Alabama don’t use their RBs a whole lot, but the consensus best in the draft, and a ‘draftnick’ on twitter the other day said he’s the best pass catcher of all positions this year. I think it’s highly likely that it’s Josh Jacobs 1st RB, available at a best of 1/5. Miles Sanders though is 5/2 to be the second RB drafted on Unibet, I think that’s pretty good value
  • 1st WR offers a bit more value. DK Metcalf hit the headlines when running a ridiculous 4.33 at 228lbs. BUT his 3-cone time was atrocious and I’m of the belief that teams but more credence into that than running in a straight line, there’s also concern around his neck injury, frankly he could snap his own neck just by tensing too hard, he’s a very large gentleman. SO I’d be willing to take a shot on someone else being the WR1. The tough part is figuring out who… There’s a chance no WR goes on Day 1. But Hakeem Butler (5/1 unibet) and Marquise Brown (7/1 Sky/Unibet) are up there. Evan Silva, on the Rotoworld podcast said that Marquise Brown could be a transcendent talent, that’s good enough endorsement for me. I feel I should have posted this when I looked at it, you’re looking at around 2/1 for Hollywood now on Redzone.
  • 1st TE will be from Iowa. TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant will be the first two taken and all the hype is on Hockenson being taken first, in fact, I don’t think I’ve seen a draft where it’s been the other way around. 4/7 for Hockenson, 11/8 for Fant.
  • The 1st OL has Jawaan Taylor going off the board first at 8/11, but if you’re going to take that you may as well look at the RaB market and take the Jags to get him at 5/4 (confusingly on the 11/2-10/1 market) on Skybet.
  • 1st DL, obviously I think it’ll be Bosa, 2/5 isn’t a viable bet.
  • We finish off with the 1st CB market, with Greedy Williams the consensus to be taken there, he shut down DK Metcalf when they faced each other last season. I’ll be honest on this one, I have no opinion on CBs so won’t be backing anything.

Other markets

As usual Skybet are ahead of the crowd on the RaB markets and have a couple of interest, as mentioned about the Jags to take Jawaan Taylor looks a decent bet, as does the Buccs to take Devin White, available at 11/10. The Buccs lost Kwon Alexander in the off-season and look good on offense, White is the best LB in the class, a day 1 starter and is a position of need for them so it makes sense that he’d be taken there. Slight worry on them trading out though.

Josh Jacobs to be drafted by the Raiders. They’ve got 3 picks in the first round and need an RB, picking at 24 and 27 seems to be the area that the “experts” think the first RB may go. It’s at 6/4 (skybet) and I can see the logic. They did sign Isaiah Crowell who is adequate but they are building for the future and I can see Gruden wanting his own guy.

As a Bengals fan I think it’s likely that they draft Devin Bush at 11, however if Ed Oliver is there (seems increasingly unlikely that he’ll be there) then they really should get him – 18/1 on Skybet. There’s also growing speculation that Dwayne Haskins will be their pick, a measly 4/1 for him now on Skybet and Unibet though.

Picks

  • Jawaan Taylor to be Drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 1st Round – 5/4 (for some reason it’s in the 11/2-10/1 bracket on Skybet) – 5 points
  • Quinnen Williams draft position u3.5 – Evens (Unibet) – 3 points
  • Arizona to trade down the #1 pick – 10/1 (Betway) – 1 point
  • Miles Sanders 2nd RB drafted – 5/2 (Unibet) – 2 points
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