I put out a draft picks post last night, here -> Draft talk and props but I’ve been thinking about it and there’s quite a few more things that I think will happen. These won’t be official picks that I’m tracking, moreso some thoughts on what I think will happen given that in the run up to the big night there’s constant information coming out, leaks, rumours, and the such – Last year it was Sam Darnold to the Browns until early on Draft day when it leaked that Mayfield was the likely pick, so if you can, pay attention to twitter tomorrow and get on quick if you see any news on the Cardinals!
I will be doing a full first round mock – Here for Rhys, @rhys_nfl who has decided to do a little comp on twitter.
The top 15 picks are as follows and a few options that I think make sense for teams (most likely to be wrong)
For the record. I don’t watch tape, all opinions have been garnered from twitter/mocks/NFL websites/podcasts. I leave the tape watching to those who know what they’re talking about
***IN FACT – ALL OF THE BELOW WILL LIKELY GO WRONG AS I’M NOT VALUING MANY THE QBS IN THIS CLASS WITH ANY HIGH REGARD WHEREAS I’M SURE AT LEAST ONE TEAM WILL WHICH WILL RUIN IT ALL***
1. Arizona Cardinals – Murray/Bosa/Williams.
2. San Francisco 49ers – Bosa/Williams/Allen
3. New York Jets – Murray/Williams/Allen
4. Oakland Raiders – Allen/Oliver/Williams
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – White/Whomever is left of the non-qbs above/Trade down
6. New York Giants – Fuck knows. Gettleman is crazy (Daniel Jones is reportedly the #1 QB on their board but I think they’re likely to get him at 17)
7. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jawaan Taylor
8. Detroit Lions – Trade back/White/Whomever above?
9. Buffalo Bills – Trade back/
10. Denver Broncos – Drew Lock?!
11. Cincinnati Bengals – White/Bush/Oliver/Jonah Williams or Andre Dillard
12. Green Bay Packers – TJ Hock/QB?
13. Miami Dolphins – Trade up for a QB?
14. Atlanta Falcons – Trade up for Oliver?
15. Washington Redskins – WR/QB
Bear with me now…
I believe, mainly from my possibly faulty logic. That the Cardinals probably want to trade out of number one to acquire picks. I also think that teams probably think that as well so aren’t bothering to offer them what they want to get. I think in an ideal world for the Cardinals, they want the Raiders to trade up from 4 to 1, and the Cards to get 4 and 24/27. They’d probably then want to trade back again within the top 10 and get even more later on. That would give them one of the top OTs and picks enough to fill the many many other needs on the roster. HOWEVER. I don’t think any of this will happen because there’s just not the demand this year for the #1 Pick. The QBs just don’t seem to be catching the attention of many teams, and frankly most teams aren’t that desperately searching for on for once. SO. I think the Cardinals probably keep the #1 pick. Now the tough part. Would they take Kyler Murray? I’ve been hearing rumours that most of the room want to keep Rosen and take Bosa. BUT their new HC, a man they want to ensure has the best possible pieces to succeed is seemingly bestest buddies with Kyler and that’s where all of this came from.
That may all be a bit rambling, but just my thoughts on the situation atop the draft.
The hype on Quinnen Williams seems to have been gathering all week and I’m thinking he’ll probably go top 3. (Hence the bet recommended yesterday) – You can get 4/1 for the 49ers and 3/1 for the Jets to take him over at Unibet – Conversely I think that 2 of the top 3 will be Williams and Bosa. Meaning that Josh Allen, or Kyler Murray drop… I don’t think the Raiders take a QB at 4. So… If all the above happens, then the Buccs at 5 could be the first team to trade down if a team sees Kyler there. HOWEVER again, that word… most people seem to think they like Devin White, and for good reason, so I think they’d want to stay around the top 10 (to be ahead of the Bengals who would probably take White if he fell) if they went down at all. The Jags just paid big dick Nick, the Lions have Matthew Stafford, the Bills took Josh Allen snr. last year, Denver won’t trade up for Murray (John Elway won’t take someone that short) – The Bengals won’t trade up. Green Bay don’t need a QB, I think they’ll go for TJ Hockenson at 12.
The Miami Dolphins. I would be surprised if they traded up, I’ve chatted to Graham on twitter about this, and everything they’ve done this off-season suggests they’re hoarding cap space and if anything would trade down to acquire future picks at the expense of this season. However, the lure of getting the top QB on their board could lead them to throw that out of the window and trade up to get one. Again, that doesn’t fit the logic of their moves this off-season but they seem to do some crazy shit.
It’s been widely reported that the Falcons love Ed Oliver and he’d be a perfect fit for their team, they also tend to be fairly aggressive in getting who they want so I wouldn’t be shocked to see them move up in the draft if he drops to a point they can get him. I’m strangely high on the Falcons, they did OK with nearly all of their defense out last year so they could feel they’ve got another Superbowl run in them, á la Saints trading to get Davenport last year.
I have no clue with the Redskins. If one of the top few QBs drops here then it will likely be him. Other than that they really need pass catchers, so they could be the first to take a WR. – On that subject – It’s been reported today that some scouts believe the hype on DK Metcalf to be a media creation, now I’ve already tipped Hollywood Brown to be the #1 WR. They lack a speedster, so it wouldn’t surprise me here. – They currently have Josh Doctson, Paul Richardson… er… that’s about it. Jehu Chesson, Brian Quick, Tre McBride? Christ it’s awful. They could go with a tight end, Fant should still be on the board and would help the run game with AP and Derrius Guice returning, and while Jordan Reed is elite when healthy it’s a rare occurence, Vernon Davis isn’t getting any younger… I think it’ll be TE/WR.
There’s a lot of guys who have been mocked high that I’ve not even mentioned yet, no real reason to that, maybe my lack on knowledge on them, lack of seeing their name mentioned in a lot of places. (Rashan Gary, Brian Burns, Montez Sweat (heart issue will cause him to drop))
I think I’ll leave my thoughts there, it’s a very confusing world and I hope this all makes a little sense.
A repeat here to hopefully get a few more entrants – I will be doing a full first round mock – Here for Rhys, @rhys_nfl who has decided to do a little comp on twitter
Bet365 have a lot of Over/Under on some player draft positions.
- Quinnen Williams was o/u 3.5 – under (5/6 on 365, 1/1 on Unibet)
- Josh Allen o/u 3.5 – lean over
- Ed Oliver o/u 8.5 – under (but shit odds now)
- Montez Sweat o/u 8.5 – over (1/4 though)
- Dwayne Haskins o/u 10.5 – No idea (8/11 under, 1/1 over on 365 – 5/6 each on Redzone)
- Drew Lock o/u 10.5 – under – Just because of Denver. (6/5, 8/13 for over)
- DK Metcalf o/u 18.5 – over (5/6 either side)
- Marquis Brown o/u 19.5 – lean under but no idea (2/1 on the under)
- Greedy Williams o/u 21.5 – under (5/6 either side)
- Josh Jacobs o/u 25.5 – under (with Lynch retiring again could be more likely Raiders)
I’m not sure if any of this will help anyone at all, or just further confuse things, but, sod it, it’s my website I’ll do what I want.