First up, I did a piece on the main player props, MVP, Leading Pass, rush and rec – Early look at betting markets so have a read of that if you haven’t already.
And I’ve set up a spreadsheet here, which I’m pretty sure you can download for yourselves
This article I’ll have a look at the Request-a-bets and some of the other player prop markets mainly on Skybet.
There are a lot of over/under available on players in various places which I’ll look at hopefully tomorrow if time allows, I know there was a lovely 200 yard middle on OBJ earlier in the off-season, not sure if it’s still there or not, but we won on a big Landry middle last year so usually worth looking at.
Admission time, I won’t be backing any myself AT THE MOMENT, as frankly I haven’t got the money to spare at the moment, it’s been a busy month! BUT I’ll be getting money on them when I can.
- Most Pass yards – Luck, Most rush yards – Zeke, Most receiving yards – TY Hilton – 80/1 (1pt); I recommended Luck and Zeke as bets in the previous post, so to get 80/1 when adding Hilton, who will be the main guy in Indy seems a sensible bet for me personally to take.
- Regular Season Wins: Bears Under 9.5, Falcons 9+, Cardinals 5+, 49ers 8+, Buccs 7+ – 25/1 (3pts); I think the riskiest one here is 49ers getting to 8 win, although the Buccs is a bit dodgy in a tough division but I like Arians and they should be able to put up points to compete.
- Regular Season Wins (8pts): Pats, Chiefs & Saints 8+ each, Colts, Browns, Bears, Rams & Cowboys 7+ each – 5/4; Yeah, it should happen. The Browns are the riskiest there but while I’m not on the hype train they should be around there.
All the above are on the request-a-bet sections. Below have been done in order they are found on the Skybet site. (Price are default to Skybet, others are stated)
- Josh Allen most INTs thrown – 12/1 (2pts) – 14/1 on 888/Unibet; Unsurprisingly the 2nd year QBs lead this market, Darnold would be the one I was looking at, but at 17/2 probably too short for me. Last season Big ben lead, but had most attempts, I think he’ll be there again without AB to throw too he’s left with Juju, Moncrief and Washington, and he doesn’t like Washington so I can see his figures being high again as he tends not to take sacks. Proportionally Attempts to INTs, Rosen took the crown with 14 from 217 attempts (6.4%), that was behind an atrocious O-Line with poor coaching in Arizona, now in Miami and not guaranteed a starting position he’s a miss. Josh Allen at 12/1 isn’t the worst shout, he was high last year with 12 INTs from 169 attempts (7.1%) and he’ll continue to be aggressive and looking downfield.
- Most rush TDs; Not entirely sure who I’d be taking on this one, but Skybet have Todd Gurley as the heavy favourite which increases the prices on everyone else, with his knee issue I’m not confident that he’ll be on the field enough to justify the price he’s set at, so if you fancy someone else in this market they’re probably at a decent price. Last year, Gurley 17, Kamara 14, Henry and Connor 12, Barkley 11, Gordon 10. – I like the look of Mack at 22/1 (18/1 EW on Ladbrokes) and DJ at 28/1 (40/1 on 888, 18s EW Lads) for the Cardinals.
- Most rec. TDs; Another one that’s a bit too hard to really predict. Last year led by Antonio Brown, obviously on a new team, so that’s him ruled out. Eric Ebron was second, that has to be an out-lier for me, Davante Adams is the most likely to repeat his numbers in my eyes but that’s why he’s the 6/1 fav. To be honest, the only minor bet I’ll be having here is 100/1 on Hunter Henry (or 66/1 if you want EW on Ladbrokes)
- Kyler Murray most QB rush yards – 10/1 (2pts); Obviously Lamar Jackson is the favourite for this at just over evens, but he won’t run as much as last year, he can’t… So I think it’s worth taking a punt on a guy who rushed for over 1,000 yards and 12 TDs in his final year in college, not quite the 1,600 that Jackson went for, but he’s definitely capable with his legs, I think he should be second favourite, not 5th.
- Sam Darnold most fumbles lost (just QBs) – 80/1 (1pt); Again Lamar heads this market (7/2) as he had 10 from 147 rush attempts last year (6.8%), obviously due to having so many more rush attempts than any other QB, surprisingly (to me) Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold both had 4 from 44, about 9% and it’s something that he was susceptible to in college as well. As I mentioned above I don’t see Lamar having that many attempts again and teams will be more wise to it now (see the Chargers stopping him in the playoffs)
Ladbrokes only (as far as I know)
- Total TDs scored – Saquon Barkley – 6/1 (4pts), David Johnson 16/1 EW (2pt EW, 4 total); Total TDs, so it’s more than likely going to be a running back as they get rushing and receiving TDs, and for me Saquon is the most likely to be a figure in both rushing and receiving TDs. IF DJ is fit for the season then I see no reason why he won’t be able to get back near 1000:1000 and 20 TDs as he did in his last full season. My boy Dalvin Cook probably isn’t the worst shout either at 40s, but I’m in on his yards already and I feel he’s more of an injury risk than DJ.
I won’t be tackling most sacks, most tackles and assists, most interceptions made, higher passer rating etc as I feel they’re too random to be putting any money on.
Good Luck if you follow along, I usually do OK on season longs, so hopefully that will continue.