Over/Under player yards – hitting the middles

First up if you haven’t already, check out the other off-season looks I’ve done so far – Early look at betting markets and RaBs and other leader markets and if you have then click on them again to make me feel good when I check the stats.

Right, the most time intensive of the lot, a look at O/U on player stat lines. As far as I can tell these markets are mainly on Bet365, Redzone and Skybet – It’s probably worth noting that Skybet has all set at 5/6, Redzone at 10/11, however 365 have skewed their odds instead of changing the numbers which makes this all a little more complicated.

I will try and put out yet another post with an opinion on the others over the weekend, but for this one I’ll highlight the biggest middling opportunities out there at the moment.

The idea here is to play for a middle and a double win, but covering losses on the other side; For example taking o1000 at 5/6 (1.83), and u1200 at 10/11 (1.91) – Even stakes of £100 would have you losing a maximum of £17, but possibly winning £174 if it lands between the two numbers. This can be off-set by betting a little bigger on the side you feel is more likely.

You can find the lines, and a lot of other shit I’ve collated from across the UK based sites on a spreadsheet – Odds comparison spreadsheet.


I’ll start with the biggest margins between the sites and go from there.

Top of the pile with an impressive 260 yards difference between Bet365 and Skybet is the pornstar dating, ACL snapping, sexiest QB alive, James (Jimmy) Garop-polo; Frustratingly the UNDER 4100.5 available on Bet365 is heavily vigged to 4/6 (1.66) OVER 3840.5 is on Skybet at 5/6. – The under seems the most likely for me, he played lights out in the final 6 games of the 2017, and was on pace 4160 yards based on his small sample size. Last year probably around 3900 yards. So for me it’s under 4100.5 yards.

I’m not too surprised to see the next two QBs with large discrepancies across the books because frankly I haven’t got a clue how either of them will do this year, both with 250 yards gaps.

The tear-crying, leg breaking, twitter blocking “leader” of the Oakland Raiders Derek Carr and the back aching, one-time SB MVP, rookie hating, now at the Denver Broncos Joe Flacco. You can get 4000.5 on Redzone and 4250.5 on Skybet for Derek Carr, and surprisingly (to me) he topped 4000 yards last year finishing on 4,049 for the season, and this was with Jared Cook as his main pass catcher, they brought in Tyrell Williams and more importantly Antonio Brown, so I can see him beating that total this year. I’d be looking for a middle here with the bigger bet on U4250.5 on Skybet. Flacco was brought in by Denver who then drafted a rookie QB in the second round, and while I don’t think that Drew Lock will see the field this year, there is pressure on Flacco and if he doesn’t do well they could throw in the rookie. He’s never been below 3,000 yards when playing 16 games although they were all with Baltimore and I feel this Denver team is going to be winning based on their defense and running the ball. It’s a no bet for me, but I’d be taking the u3250.5 yards on bet365 at 4/5 if I was.

Next up with 224 yards of difference between the books is the Blonde haired, surfer-looking, sunrise unaware star of LA, Jared Goff with a high of 4474.5 on Skybet and a low of 4250.5 on Redzone. I think redzone are a too down on him this year, maybe because of the potential issues with Gurley, but the return of his boy Cooper Kupp should cover any lost free yards from short passes to Gurley, he’s got one of the best offensive minds in the game to figure ways to get him playing well. I like the bigger bet on O4200.5 yards on Redzone.

The first rookie is up next, I say first rookie, he’s the only one on multiple sites as he’s the only rookie at the moment definitely starting week 1. The free-running, rocket-hurling, baseball-playing Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray set at 3285.5 on Bet365 at 5/6 (1.83) and 3500.5 at 10/11 (1.91) on Redzone a middle of 214 yards. The Cardinals are seemingly going to bring a college style air-raid offense to the league with a lot of passing and given that even Andy Dalton threw for over 3200 yards in his debut year, I’ve got to think the over should be the bigger bet here.

No jokes on this one, mainly because I can’t think of any, but also his wife has/had a brain tumour, and that shit ain’t funny. Matthew Stafford has a difference of 200 yards with 3850.5 on Redzone and 4050.5 on Skybet. They want to run the ball more in Detroit, and last year was the first time in his career he’s dropped below 4,000 yards. My gut says bigger bet on o3850.5 but it’s not one I like on either side tbh, I have no faith in Matt Patricia.

There’s a couple of guys with 175 yards difference between the sites, both of them fiery in their own ways, one touted by many as the most gifted QB of his generation, he might not like his family or his former head coach, but he loves chucking the rock, Aaron Rodgers, and the other, well. It’s Andy Dalton. The red rifle, instigator for the ‘Dalton Scale’ measuring the most average QB in the league, that guy. – You can get a low of 4275.5 on Bet365 for Rodgers at 8/11 (1.72) and a high of 4450.5 on Redzone. The common theory on him is that he’ll be in “fuck you mode” and out to prove it was Mike (not Mick) McCarthy who was the reason for him being pretty shit last year, I saw pretty shit, he still threw for 4,442 which was actually the second highest of his career, that was a with a shit defense and trailing a lot though, something which shouldn’t happen as much this year as they’re greatly improved on D. But if I was a betting man I’d be looking at the over for him. The Red Rifle on the other hand… he’s usually around 3,500 yards with a couple of 4,200 seasons in there, and was on pace for 3,700 last year before missing the last 5 games with a thumb injury. There’s a new offensively minded head coach there, he’s got good weapons around him (when they’re not all dead) BUT… His lines are set really high, the lowest being 3725.5 on bet365, the highest 3900.5 on Skybet. I’d have to say the U3900.5 should be you bigger bet if you’re planning on middling this one.


I’ll leave it at that for the middles, full list of player yards available below…which I’ve apparently chopped the bookies out of, First column bet365 (4275.5), Second column Skybet (4400.5), 5th column Redzone (4450.5) and then the differences in two columns as it seemed too much work to pick the lowest of each. IF you’ve not got a Redzone account and want to help me out a little bit (I say help out, last year my referrals were -£78 which kinda proves I tip well as everyone won on there) then signup via this link – LINKY although if you wait till closer to the season there will be better signup offers. Last year they had 25/1 for whichever team you want to win the Superbowl.

QBYdsDiff

Good Luck if you follow any of the advice above, they’re not the most exciting bets, but I’d like to think at least one will hit a middle and that’d pay for all the others.

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