Week 5 – TNF – LA Rams @ Seattle Seahawks #LARams #Seahawks

We’ll just pretend Monday didn’t happen shall we? Had a winner of the 4 bets, with the Bengals only score coming as a first half field goal, which was lucky. But nothing on the TD scorers; I will, however, once again claim we were close as Diontae Johnson scored for the Steelers and Tyler Eifert dropped one IN THE ENDZONE for the Bengals so we were close to 14/1 winner. I don’t want to keep bitching about losing bets, but I’m picking the right shit just getting unlucky with it.

On to week 5.

NFL19_UK10Bonus_728x60We’ve got a Showdown running for tonights game, with it probably high scoring should be a fun night on DK. Rams v Seahawks Showdown matchup – If you’re not registered click above and join in!

Rams +1.5 @ Seahawks: Total – 49.5

It’s a high total, but it’s for a good reason. Last year the two games between these teams were 33-31 in Seattle and 36-31 in LA, both won by the Rams.

Rams (3-1)

The Rams were involved yet another ridiculously high-scoring game last week losing 55-40 at home to the Buccaneers, their first of this season after several over 70 points last year.

Jared Goff threw for the third highest attempts in history completing 45 of 68 throws, around 66% for 2 TDs and 3 INTs. He’s not looked great this year (his QBR on ESPN has him ranked 26th) despite having his bestest buddy back to throw the ball to, it’s partly on him, partly on the opposition figuring out how to play the Rams, partly on his offensive line which has been rated by PFF as one of the worst in the league, even my boy Whitworth isn’t performing to his usual high standard. Goff will have to be more secure with the ball in this one.

His bestest buddy is Cooper Kupp who has started the season on fire again, much as he did last year. He’s had 46 targets from 4 games, 3 TDs and over 100 yards in the last three they’ve played and leads the WRs in redzone target converting 2 of his 4 into TDs and has looked great especially when running through the Saints secondary against them a couple of weeks ago. Robert Woods had a couple of down games but bounced back in style last week with 13 catches for 164 yards. He’s usually good for mid-60s yards from 6 or 7 receptions in every game he plays. Brandin Cooks is meant to be the big play threat… I don’t recall hearing his name a whole lot so far this season but he’s had over 70 in the last three games they’ve played with 1 score in that time.

The tight ends haven’t generally been involved in the Rams offense with McVay. However they’ve led the team in redzone targets so far this year with Everett catching all 5 of his targets in there for a TD and Higbee with 3 of 4 for 1 TD himself.

Todd Gurley. What do we do with Todd Gurley. They haven’t been using him in the passing game much, and the gamescript meant they went away from the run fairly quickly last week, his week was saved by 2 TDs from his 16 yards on the ground, but I have no idea how they’re going to be using him going forward. In fairness they did give him a lot more through the air last week but again that was probably more game-script than “squeaky wheel gets the grease” alongside him is Malcolm Brown who vultured a couple of TDs in week 1 but hasn’t done a lot since then.

Their defense has been OK this season, around mid-table in passing yards and 9th in rushing yards conceded and a lot of the passing yards came last week so it’s a little skewed. They’re still a well rounded team and well coached.

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Seahawks (3-1)

The Seahawks are probably even tougher to judge based on their work so far this season. They beat two 0-4 teams in the Cardinals and Bengals and the Steelers without Big Ben for half the game, losing only to the Saints at home, a rare September home loss for them under Pete Carroll.

Russell Wilson is a top 3 QB in the league, they don’t use him as much as they probably should as they like to run the ball a lot still but he’s been brilliant this season so far. A passer rating of 118, 8 TDs, 0 interceptions and around 70% completion rate so far this year for over 1,100 yards already, not bad for a team who run the ball so often.

The running backs have definitely been led by Chris Carson so far, and while I think he might have lost that lead role after fumbling once in each of the first 3 games had Rashaad Penny been fit… it didn’t happen and he re-established how good he is with a big game against the Cardinals last week with 155 combined yards, admittedly not the hardest test he’ll ever have but he did it well. He hasn’t actually found the endzone since the first game against the Bengals though. Rashaad Penny should be fit for this one though, he practised fully on Wednesday which is a good sign. He found the endzone in his last appearance from 37 yards against the Steelers. He’s far better than CJ Procise who has had a tiny bit of work with him out.

Tyler Lockett has somehow kept his ridiculous efficiency up catching 26 of 32 targets with two huge games against the better teams they’ve played this year, 12 targets vs Pitt, 14 vs the Saints. Unsurprisngly after posting a perfect passer rating when targeting Lockett last year, he’s Wilsons go-to guy still. They added massive DK Metcalf through the draft this year and he’s looked pretty good doing what he has been asked to do this year, mostly the same route, but he will go up and get the ball away from most CBs in the league, so sod it, if he’s good at the one route, keep giving it to him. DK actually leads the team in redzone targets this year with 7. He’s caught none of them, but it looks like they were trying to get him going last week with 3 targets against the Cardinals, his yards so far this year? 89,61,67 and 6. Which makes his 49.5 line this week quite tempting in what should be a high scoring affair. They finally welcomed back David Moore a couple of weeks back too and he’s had a redzone target in each week after proving himself valuable there last season (especially for me, you may have heard I won a pretty good bet on him) He’s well-priced this week to score at 8/1 on WilliamHill and around 5s or higher in most places. Jaron Brown gets a few targets a game as well. Bleh.

Will. Motherfucking Dissly. I ignored Jamie Byrom when he was bigging him up, I ignored the Fantasy footballers when they were banging on about him as well, figured he was a flash in the pan, but he’s proved me wrong hasn’t he. 19 from 22, 181 yards and 4 TDs so far this season, all of them coming in the redzone where he’s 4 from 6.

Their defense has 10 sacks on the season, a couple of fumbles, and has scored a TD themselves this season. It’s not as good as the legion of boom was, but it’s no slouch either especially since they brought in Jadaveon Clowney. Notably it has been decidedly better against the run than the pass which lends itself to a higher scoring game in this one.

Summary

Should be a good game. I’m hoping for a high-scoring affair and history suggest that should be the case, both teams are better against the run than the pass so should, theoretically be a lot of passing which generally leads to higher scoring. (Fancy over 79 points? That’s 33/1)

I would lean to the Seahawks, at home, on a short week, and all the lines I’m liking are Seahawks based, quite like Wilson o257.5 passing yards, but under 54.5 longest reception, even his rush yards at 19.5 are tempting if you think it’ll be a close high scorer, he’s topped that in 2/4 games so far.

Leaning to the under 59.5 on Gurley rush yards because of his general usage so far but always the chance he breaks off a few and he’s covered that twice from 4 so far this year. Everett and Higbee both above 5/1 are tempting too.

With Skybet having their free £5 when you bet £10 on RaBs, I think I’ll be looking for some combination of those and these below.

  • DK Metcalf o45.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (Betfred)
  • DK Metcalf anytime TD – 9/4 (Spreadex)
  • David Moore anytime TD – 7/1 (Unibet)
  • David 2 or Moore – 50/1 (Hills/365) – 1 point

As always all yardage props are from the Prop sheet that @GScurfTrader painstakingly puts together each and every week for us lovely people.

Good luck if you’re betting and watching this, should be a good one.

Adam

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