Week 5 – SNF – Previews and betting tips #NFL100

Wooooooooooooooo what a lovely night Thursday was! Could have been even better had DK Metcalf had an extra 2 bloody yards, but to get 44 from just 2 receptions, I don’t think I can moan too much about him falling short of the 45.5 line. BUT one of his receptions was in the endzone and a nice 3.25 (9/4) winner. That was the big one for the night though as my man David Moore did the business for us with a 7/1 winner as he found the endzone. Not quite the 50/1 for 2 or more, but still. I’ll survive with 15 points profit for one night from four bets.

For Sunday night we’ve got a couple of competitions running on draftkings this weekend. The usual $5 entry, currently at 14/20 and 5/20 if that one fills up. They pay top 3 with the top prize in each at $45. – If you have a bit of cash to spare then there’s a $20 entry game with 5/10 entered so far with $126 for the winner, $54 for second place. So if you love a bit of fantasy football and reckon you can beat me then join now! – Join the league LEAGUE LINK and you’ll be able to join any comp you want from there

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Chicago Bears -5 @ Oakland Raiders (LONDON): 40.5

It’s the start of the international series and usually that would mean me concentrating on a long write up for the game in the UK, that wasn’t intended for this one… but these things seem to happen when I get going.

This is the first game hosted in Europe at a stadium designed in part with the NFL in mind at the Tottenham Hotspurs stadium, and happily for the Bears and Raiders it’s on artificial turf instead of the grass at Wembley. If you’ve not seen the transformation video then it’s well worth a look, it’s very impressive.

Da Bears

The Bears lost their starting QB to a shoulder injury last week and in my eyes that’s probably made them stronger. If you’ve read a few weeks then you know I’m not Trubiskys biggest fan. So Chase Daniel starts in this one after leading them to a win against the Vikings last week. A fair 101.9 passer rating, 22 of 30 completed for 195 yards isn’t an awful stat-line. He will generally pass short, he’s probably not going to be great for them in the long run but he’s perfectly adequate. Unlike Trubisky he spread the ball around as well with 9 different players getting at least 1 reception last week. Allen Robinson being the leader in that department but Javon Wims one I want to keep an eye on at a decent price after playing a team-leading 94% of offensive snaps for the team last week.

This could be a good week for David Montgomery to showcase his talents as he’s been increasingly involved on the offense on the ground and in the passing game. Last week specifically, 21 carries and 3 receptions against a tough Minnesota defense. He’s hit 200 yards in 4 games, which is good for my o765 season yards bet, and only found the endzone once so far. The Raiders have been fairly good vs RBs, but Monty should have the talents to have a good game.

The Bears defense might be something I was wrong on. I thought it was fall off more considerably than it has this season but it’s been brilliant this year. Still forcing sacks, turnovers, interceptions. They’re just bloody good.

Raiders

The Raiders have been in the UK all week after travelling straight over from their win in Indianapolis last week. It will have given them time to acclimatise, but on the other hand it means their week has been filled with distractions.

I think it’s safe to say that they met the Colts at just the right time last week as they were riddled with injuries, either way it’s still a good result winning on the road in Lucas oil stadium where they jumped out to a 14 point league early on before settling and strolling to a 7 point win at the end of the game.

I never know what to think of Derek Carr. He doesn’t do much to impress, but he doesn’t do a whole lot wrong either. Other than a poor game against the Chiefs where they didn’t score in the final 3 quarters of the game, he’s had a QBR over 100 in every game. 6 TDs to 3 Ints. Meh. Very. Very. Average.

He has found Tyrell Williams for a TD in every game this season, the wide receiver is the only one in the league to have achieved that stat, unfortunately he’s got a knock and is questionable after not practising all week. I don’t think he’ll be playing. Which leaves them with very little at WR. Rookie Hunter Renfrow has played a small part in every game so far, 11 receptions from 18 targets. But Trevor Davis was officially the WR2 when the game kicked off last week. He rushed for a big 60 yard TD, it would be remarkable to do that against this Bears team. The main target in the passing game, even with Tyrell Williams was the Tight End Darren Waller who has converted 33 of 37 targets through 4 games for 320 yards, yet somehow hasn’t found the endzone yet.

Josh Jacobs is a talented kid and one they’ve spoken about highly by stating they need to get him the ball more. He looked like he was regaining his health last week after an illness stuff him for a week or two and he’s one I want to watch tomorrow as I rate him highly.

The Bears defense should win this one for them, it’s by far the best unit involved in this game and Khalil Mack will want to destroy the team who didn’t want to pay him. I don’t expect this to be a high scoring game, but London games are weird.

Bears -5 will be in the treble…

  • Khalil Mack 2+ sacks; 3.50 (Skybet)
  • Javon Wims anytime; 7.00 (CoraLadbrokes)
  • Trevor Davis anytime 21.00 (Skybet) – 0.5 point

NFL: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

cbssports.com

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 @ Carolina Panthers: 40

The Battle of the backups. Both Gardner Minshew and Kyle Allen have impressed since taken over the reins from Foles and Newton respectively. Minshew especially as a 6th round pick would not have expected to be involved this early but has been great with 7 TDs and just the 1 interception so far. His favourite guy is DJ Chark who has separated himself from the pack as the WR1 here. Minshew also like the irishman James O’Scorenessy… no O’Shaughnessy… either way. He’s scored in two consecutive games now. The Panthers however are very good vs the pass and less so against the run game so it should be a lot of Leonard Fournette in this one.

The Panthers will use the running back a lot. A hell of a lot. I believe a Fuckload is the official term for the amount of the ball that Christian McCaffrey gets. He surely can’t keep playing 100% of snaps and 37 touches per game as he did last week. But he’s brilliant to watch and gets the job done, interestingly he hasn’t scored a receiving TD yet. Other than him the passing game with Allen seemingly runs more through Curtis Samuel than DJ Moore 14 to 7 targets in favour of Samuel, and surprisingly even Jarius Wright received more targets over the last 2 weeks than Moore. Greg Olsen has had a good game with Allen too although it was against the Cardinals so doesn’t really count.

Kyle Allen got hit three times last week, he fumbled three times and faces a fearsome pass rush this week with Calais Campbell and Josh Allen providing pressure across the line.

Jaguars D/ST to score – 5.00 (Coral) (any D/ST score at 3.25 on 365 is a little safer if you prefer)

Arizona Cardinals +3 @ Cincinnati Bengals: 47

Two teams without a win face off in the Queen city and things couldn’t have gone too much worse for either so far this year. The Cardinals came back well in week one to grab a tie against the Lions while the Bengals pushed the 4-1 Seahawks and the 3-1 Bills close in between getting embarrassed by the 49ers and some other team on Monday. And in fairness that was truly an awful performance and showed the importance of at least an adequate offensive line.

The Cardinals play quick so at least they’re entertaining due to the sheer amount of plays that occur in their games. The great air raid experiment hasn’t worked too well so far, Kyler Murray has thrown 4 TDs, 4 INTs this season. It was thought he’d have quite a lot of designed runs but he’s been reluctant to scramble so far. Hardly surprising at 5′ 3″ 200lbs and seemingly shrinking every week. He’s without Christian Kirk this week who has seen a lot of targets this season, 8 per game on average, so I’d expect more for the evergreen Larry Fitzgerald (also on 8 per game so far) and more for David Johnson from the backfield. The guys filling in at WR should be Keesean Johnson, Trent Sherfield and this week Andy Isabella was mentioned as playing on the outside for them, and possibly a little Pharaoh Cooper (20/1)

David Johnson is a fantastic RB in both facets of the game and I’d expect him to feast against an awful Bengals LB corps who are unable to stop the run. He’s on 355 combined yards this year with 3 TDs on the season.

The Bengals aren’t as bad as they’re being made out to be, they’ve faced the 7th toughest strength of schedule so far but have to put in a performance here to stop the fans falling away even further. It won’t be easy though as they’re once again even more injured than the previous week with leading receiver John Ross heading to IR with a shoulder injury. It really fucking sucks supporting this team some times.

Andy Dalton is average, but had zero protection on Monday, he’ll need more help in this one against Chandler Jones pass rush. If he does he’ll be able to find Tyler Boyd on quick slants and his WR2 now, Auden Tate with regularity. It looks like Alex Erickson will be the 3rd guy there with Damion Willis backing up. They should look to get Joe Mixon going even more. In fairness to him he’s run pretty well in the last few weeks and you can see his frustration with the rest of the team at times. He’ll definitely get some chances in this one. Tate has actually been pretty good even before the Ross injury with 6 and 4 receptions over his last two. The Cardinals have allowed a TD to every Tight end they’ve faced so far. Tyler Eifert dropped one last weekend. 9/5 for him to continue that streak this week.

The less said about the Bengals D so far the better. They should be able to get pressure against the Cards offensive line though.

I think this will be pretty high scoring, so much so I’ve set up a showdown match on Draftkings for it if anyone is interested – ARI v CIN Showdown

Auden Tate o4.5 receptions – 2.25 (365) Kyler Murray o22.5 rushing yards – 1.83 (PP) 

Atlanta Falcons +4 @ Houston Texans: 50

Two poor offensive lines, two poor secondaries, the Texans are more used to that being the situation than the Falcons are though. Might be worth noting that the Falcons are garabge vs the AFC for some reason. I think I heard 1-13 during the week.

Two very good QBs on show as well. Watson is more mobile, arguably Ryan is the better passer on show. Ryan has topped 300 yards per game so far although the Falcons have been slow starting in each of them. It helps that he’s got the best WR in the league to throw to and the WR2 and 3 are pretty good too in Sanu and Ridley, ironically though it is the tight end Austin Hooper who’s been getting more targets recently 28 receptions for 33 targets for 307 yards for him this year. Devonta Freeman and the ground game haven’t got going so far, I’m still confident it will get there but it’s not been great so far.

Watson and the Texans haven’t clicked on offense yet either; They were agonisingly close to completing deep shots to Deandre Hopkins and Will Fuller last week and again I’ve got faith that it’s coming. Strangely enough the injury to Kenny Stills should help out the whole offense as he was running similar routes and crowding things for Nuk and Fuller. I think Keke Coutee being in for him this week should help all of them. Carlos Hyde has done a pretty good job at RB for them since coming in as well.

Keke Coutee o28.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (Skybet) Will Fuller anytime – 3.00 (Spreadex)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 @ New Orleans Saints: 45.5

I’m not sure what to make of this one to be honest, it seems like an over-reaction to the very impressive Buccaneers win in LA last week which instantly makes me lean to the Saints at home. This line in fact rates the Buccs as slightly the better team, which must be mainly due to Teddy Bridgewater at QB for the home team.

The Buccs are great fun if you like offensive football. Jameis will keep throwing and he’s got probably the best WR1 and 2 in the game in their current form with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans smashing teams to bits. Evans had 3 TDs in a half two weeks ago, Godwin took the plaudits last week with 2 TDs and 172 yards against the Rams. If that doesn’t work then Winston will look to his favourite redzone target Cameron Brate. It looks like the run game should finally be figuring itself out with Ronald Jones the consensus guy there and running far better than Peyton Barber. Both found the endzone last week, Jones had double the carries. The Saints have a very good run defense though so relying on anything from either of them this week is risky.

The Saints are game-managed at the moment with Teddy at QB, he hasn’t had a whole lot to do, hasn’t topped 200 yards yet this year, 2 TDs both coming in one game. A whole lot of Bleh. I do wonder if Taysom gets a go if they have to play keep-up with an offensively good team, we might get to find out tonight. The Buccs too have a very good run defense which will make things tough for Alvin Kamara who hasn’t been performing to his usual high standard this year with TDs in only one game. Michael Thomas has still been getting his receptions but they’ve been short distances at a time. There’s some other talent here but it’s not very good without Brees.

If the Saints defense is as good as last week they’ll be fine, if it becomes a shoot-out, then I think they’re screwed.

Chris Godwin anytime 2.50 (365)

Minnesota Vikings -5.5 @ New York Giants: 43.5

Danny Dimes faces his first real test of the season having won his first two starts, last week comfortably against the Redskins and the week before luckily because the Buccs kicker missed a late kick. He’s looked OK. 3 TDs, 2 INTs. Not disgraceful at all, not brilliant either. I think it comes tumbling down in this one though, the Vikings, Zimmer and Cousins are great at beating up on the poor teams in the league.

Saquon misses out again so it’s another Wayne Gallman game, he did well last week with a rushing and receiving TD. They welcome back Golden Tate after suspension to add to the mix with Sterling Shepard in the slot. Probably. Evan Engram is usually in the middle of the field too. This is a wait and see game for me for them. Their defense isn’t great.

Dalvin Cook is awesome and he’s been the whole offense for the Vikings so far (524 yards and 5 TDs so far) and it’s safe to say it’s caused issues with Thielen and Diggs both complaining about a lack of targets and Cousins admitting he’s got to do a better job of getting the ball to them both. It makes me a little apprehensive on taking a Dalvin line as it could be a case of the squeaky wheel gets the grease and the WRs getting targets this week rather than them just running the ball a ton like usual.

Vikings should win this one, and I’d expect Zimmer to cover because it’s what he does.

Dalvin Cook to score a RUSHING TD – 1.91 (Skybet) (All his TDs have been rushing so far, best of 1.62 for just anytime)

Dalvin Cook,CJ Ham

twincities.com

Baltimore Ravens -3.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers: 44

I’m not sure whether the Steelers are all that good. I’m not sure the Ravens are all that good. I am sure that the Steelers getting points at home is almost an auto-bet though.

It seems that a lot of Steelers fans still have faith in Rudolph and the organisation who traded away their 1st round pick next year. I saw nothing that showed any promise on Monday where his average depth of target was around 1 yard. A LOT of dump-offs, and flips to running backs on jet sweeps which the Bengals were unable to stop. They ran a lot of wildcat with Jaylon Samuels as well which apparently was to do with Vance McDonald missing the game, he’s questionable this week too. James Conner had a decent game but I’m not exactly convinced by him either and he’s coming into this one with a knock. Diontae Johnson has 2 in 2 with Rudolph at QB. Juju. Haha. He had 15 yards on Monday. He’ll probably blow up in this one.

The Ravens stuffed a horrible Dolphins team, they weren’t great against the Cards and have lost two since then, the game against the Chiefs, whatever, but the loss to the Browns last week was very poor. I do like Lamar Jackson for what he offers the team with his legs and his arm, and last weeks result wasn’t to do with him, he completed 70% of his passes for 3 TDs. They’ve got good support on the ground with Mark Ingram starting the season well averaging 6 ypa, he’s got Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, Willie Snead to throw to, and of course MAndrews at tight end for them. Their defense has been really poor though and that’s costing them.

I’d lean to the Steelers getting the points at home, a lot of their games historically have fallen around 3 or 4 points.

New England Patriots -15 @ Washington Redskins: 42

Colt McCoy starts for the Redskins. That’s good. Haskins would have been destroyed by this Pats defense. They’re not good. Terry McLaurin looks like he could be back for them, which helps. Chris Thompson should get some yards catching from the backfield.

Rex Burkhead is out, Ben Watson didn’t travel after suspension. Weird. I’d expect them to try and get Michel going as he’s been crap so far this year. James White should get a bit of the ball after missing out last week though.

Pats win, won’t cover, unders on the total.

Denver Broncos +6.5 @ Los Angeles Chargers: 44.5

The Broncos share the Bengals 100% record, but they’ve put up a fight in most of most games so far and probably should have won at least 2 of their 4 so far having allowed last second kicks to Jacksonville and Chicago. Flacco isn’t the answer, he’s probably not the question either though. Sutton and Sanders have been playing well, Noah Fant gets 3 catches for 30 yards every week, Freeman and Lindsay are sharing the load at RB and doing a decent enough job of it as well. There could be issues coming though as rumours are abound of unrest in the locker room and they’ll miss Bradley Chubb who did his ACL last week after finally getting some sacks.

The Chargers are beaten up, as always, Melvin Ingram will probably miss out, Mike Williams and Travis Benjamin are both questionable, Dontrelle Inman was added to the IR last week. Not great for pass catchers there. Luckily Big Phil Rivers loves Keenan Allen and will just lob it up to him 15 times a game, he’s had 10,15 and 17 targets in the games that they’ve had to try this year. They do welcome back Melvin Gordon this week though which unfortunately ruins Austin Ekeler a little who’s been brilliant to start the year. They have said that Gordon will be worked back in slowly but that could just be coach speak.

Chargers should win, I’m not sure about them covering the spread in a divisional game though.

Green Bay Packers +3 @ Dallas Cowboys: 47

Another tough one to call here. The Packers going into AT&T on some long rest after losing disappointingly against the Eagles on Thursday night in week 4. They’ll need to improve their run defense to do anything against Zeke and the Cowboys though. They do have a very good secondary and have held passing attacks down well in general.

They’re another who haven’t really got shit together on offense though and Aaron Rodgers is now missing his #1 target with Davante Adams missing at least this week with a toe injury after having the best game of his career last week before injury screwed up my bets. It’s a big loss for them and means that MVS and Geronimo Allison need to step up. Outside of those two, Allen Lazard ‘filled in’ for Adams last week, but Rodgers bestest bud Jake Kumerow should be playing this week, and it looks like Jimmy Graham will see a bump in redzone targets if they make it that close to the Cowboys end. Honestly it might even be worth having a look at Dan Vitale the full back who got a few targets last week. The Welshman has done OK-ish at RB so far, and will have to pick up the load with Jamaal Williams out.

The Cowboys struggled last week as well against the Saints and their run defense, Dak still remains winless when Zeke rushes for under 75 yards and this week they’re without Tyron Smith at left tackle, that’s a big loss for them as they fell apart a little without him last week. Amari Cooper was shit shut down last week and Green Bay may well be able to do that to them again this week, Devin Smith is there, Randall Cobb the 2, but somehow Jason Witten is still catching balls and making plays at tight end. This really should be a whole lot of Zeke though, running the ball is the way to beat this Packers team.

Believe it or not I think the Cowboys should win this one, but Rodgers has a decent record in Dallas so I wouldn’t be shocked with any result here. I’d lean to the under though.

Indianapolis Colts +11 @ Kansas City Chiefs: 56.5

Screw you Paddy ‘Homes, seriously, I bet on o315.5 in your first game inside and you finish on 315 fucking passing yards. Fuck sake…. nevermind, the line is still 315.5 for tonight. Still tempted.

Mahomes is brilliant, however some of the plaudits he gets for being able to run while glancing behind him, whatever next?! People amazed at him tying his own shoelaces? No really, he’s brilliant to watch and can make passes that no-one else in the league would attempt let alone complete. Even on a poor week last week he topped 300 yards and his team won still, aided by 54 yards on the ground for him.

Sammy Watkins is questionable with a “shoulder/hamstring.” Strange combination… if he misses (expected to play) then it’s down to Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman? Probably just a whole lot of Travis Kelce to be honest, maybe they’ll get Byron Pringle popping a little bit more? They could just lean a little more on the run game with Damien Williams due back it gives them an interesting decision between him, McCoy and Darell Williams who got the goal-line work last week.

Lucky for the Chiefs the Colts are beaten up to with their main WR and RB both nursing injuries coming into this one. I think Mack will play but I’m still a little concerned about TY and his quad injury, it’s a fucker to deal with a quad strain, the smallest movement can mess it up. In theory with them probably trailing for a lot of the game it should be more likely a Nyheim Hines game, worth noting if Mack doesn’t go then Jordan Wilkins will get the main work at RB though. The pass-catching corps will probably go through their many TEs if Hilton is out (he’s expected to suit up but I’m not sure how involved he’ll be), Doyle gets most of the possession, Ebron generally the more rewarding targets and Big Mo is still there too adding a threat near the endzone. Other WRs would be Zach Pascal, you can’t count on him (msg me if you get that one) Deon Cain and Chester Rogers. So… yeah, good luck Indy.

Chiefs win, obviously. But there’s a weird stat on Andy Reid as a double-digit favourite. They’ve only covered 1 of 8 occurences.


Summary

All 2 point bets unless stated.

Spread/Total treble

  • Bears -5, Vikings -5.5, Ari v Cin o47

Anytime TD scorers

  • Jaguars D/ST to score – 5.00 (Coral)
  • Javon Wims anytime; 7.00 (CoraLadbrokes)
  • Trevor Davis anytime 21.00 (Skybet) – 0.5 point
  • Will Fuller anytime – 3.00 (Spreadex)
  • Chris Godwin anytime 2.50 (365)
  • Dalvin Cook to score a RUSHING TD – 1.91 (Skybet)

Player Props

  • Auden Tate o4.5 receptions – 2.25 (365)
  • Kyler Murray o22.5 rushing yards – 1.83 (PP) 
  • Khalil Mack 2+ sacks; 3.50 (Skybet)
  • Keke Coutee o28.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (Skybet)

Good luck if you’re following anything, and whatever you’re on this week. A tough week to call but should be some good matchups and I can’t wait for Redzone!

Obviously check out Glenns spreadsheet and donate to him if you find it useful

Sign up to DK, it helps me keep everything free on here.

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#WhoDey bitches.

Adam.

I’ve got a couple of Colossus bet syndicates on the go this week as well, they’re not easy, but it’s a big win if we get close – £40,000 potentially…  and a smaller Pick 4 – £2000 potential

Be safe. www.gambleaware.org

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