Week 6 – SNF – Previews and betting tips #NFL100

If you haven’t seen it already I have posted the early London game between the Panthers and the Bucs already – Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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I’ve got a Showdown contest set up for the early game if you fancy making it a little more interesting, you can join that here or sign up using the banner above for a free $10 if you’re not already playing DK.

You really should join and play, it’s awesome.

Bengals (+10.5) @ Ravens: 47.5

The 0-5 Bengals travel over to the 3-2 division leading Ravens looking for their first win. It’s probably not going to come here, but the Bengals usually play the Ravens pretty tight. They’re without AJ Green and John Ross again, of course. So it looks like it will be Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate and then a mix of Alex Erickson, Damion Willis and Stanley Morgan. I’d love them to just give the ball to Mixon 25 times in this one as they did on the first drive last week but it seems unlikely.

The Ravens matchup well with this Bengals team as they’re a run heavy team and Cinci just can’t seal the edge or frankly stop anyone running on the inside either. So I’m fully expecting Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram to have good games tonight. The Bengals conceded 93 yard to Kyler Murray last week, 46 to Josh Allen earlier in the season and Lamar is a better runner than both of them. They’re likely to be without Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown at WR, so I’d imagine it will be Wille Snead as the main target? Miles Boykin mixing in a bit, and the tight ends getting a lot of targets (The Bengals suck vs TE as well)

Ravens should win, I wouldn’t take double-digits in a divisional game though. Total? No idea.

Willie Snead o3.5 receptions -2.10 (Skybet) 

Texans (+4) @ Chiefs: 54.5

This should be the most entertaining game of the weekend with Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson going against each other. Watson finished last week as many TDs as incompletions, 5 from 28 completions for 426 yards. It’s safe to say he and Will Fuller had a good week; Fuller finished with 14 receptions! 217 yards and 3 TDs and he could have had a couple more as well. It helps having Deandre Hopkins taking away coverage leaving you wide open down the field. I think Nuk will have a big game tonight against an average Chiefs secondary. They looked better without Stills mixing things up, he’s a game-time decision and I’m hoping he’s out, it means Keke Coutee gets more and moves the chains in the short game. Carlos Hyde has done well on the ground this year for them and should get some today as well.

The Chiefs should, I think, welcome back Tyreek Hill which they desperately need. They’re well coached and have a potentially generational QB but they can’t carry on covering cracks on offense. Mahomes banged up his ankle again last week and didn’t look as good after that, reports say he’s been fine this week but it’s a worry if it gets touched again. Byron Pringle popped last week with everyone else injured, Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman mixed in and Travis Kelce has 70 yards in a loss vs the Colts. They must be worried about the run game though which hasn’t got going at all this year, Damien Williams is back and McCoy should play this week too.

Not sure on this one to be honest, I can’t imagine Mahomes/Reid going two games without a win and expect a bounce-back but the Texans looked great last week. I’ve got to lean to the Chiefs and probably the unders, but equally it could end up a point-fest.

Saints (+3) @ Jaguars: 42.5

This line baffles me and there’s been money on the Jags all week as well, it opened as Saints only getting 1 point. The Saints have won all their games with Teddy Bridgewater at QB and he finally did something to help them last week throwing for 4 TDs against the Bucs. It was the first time he’d been asked to do anything but game manage and he looked good doing it.

The worry for me on the Saints is that they’re essentially a 2-man team, Kamara, who has an ankle injury (officially questionable) and Michael Thomas who catches everything thrown to him. Thomas balled out again last week with 182 and 2 TDs from 11 receptions, and he’ll probably get around that many catches this week too. Keep an eye on the Kamara news, if he’s limited it makes Latavius Murray o22.5 rush yards a good bet.

The Jags secondary hasn’t been the unstoppable unit of days gone by without Jalen Ramsey there and while Shad Khan expects him to play in this one, I’m not so sure, even if he does he usually doesn’t travel with 1 WR so Thomas will still get open and make his catches. Other than MT, Ted Ginn can make plays and Jared Cook found the endzone last week.

The Jags have done well since the ‘Stash took over at QB as well and most people seem to love Gardner Minshew. He’s done a decent job especially for a 6th round rookie. Another clean game for him last week, 374 yards, no INT again. Fair play to the kid. His favourite target DJ Chark who’s been balling out this year, he had 2 TDs and 164 yards against a good Panthers secondary last week, and Dede Westbrook has had a better connection with Minshew in recent weeks as well. I’d expect Lattimore to restrict Chark so it could be a Dede week. My boy James O’Shaughnessy is done for the year after doing his ACL last week which sucks. It’ll be Seth DeValve or Geoff Swaim taking over at TE for them.

The Jags want to be a run first team though and Leonard Fournette has had a lot of carries this year as well as getting involved in the passing game too. 29 and 23 carries in his last two, topping 200 against the Broncos and 100 and a TD last week. The Saints match up well with Fournette though so I’m pumping the brakes a bit on what he’s going to do today.

I like the Saints in this one, especially getting the points. It worries me that the line has gone up though as it probably means the clever folk are backing the Jags. Total? lean to the over.

Dede Westbrook o4.5 receptions – 2.00 (Skybet)

Eagles (+3.5) @ Vikings: 44

Kirk Cousins is 5-27 against teams who finished the previous season over 0.500. Preview Done. Eagles win.

The Eagles have been pretty good despite having a lot of injuries again, they are still without Desean Jackson this week which sucks, but they’ve been working around that well enough. They said this week that Jordan Howard will get more carries so he’s worth a look, Miles Sanders will mix in though and is much better in the passing game than Howard is. The passing game will go through Jeffery and Ertz for the most part, Ertz got off the snide with a TD last week, and Dallas Goedert provides a good redzone threat for the dirty birds too. Their defense is very good and matches up well with the Vikings game-plan as they allow the fewest rushing yards in the league.

Check that out for a transition… The Vikings want the run the ball, a lot, and when you’ve got one of the best RBs in the league this year in Dalvin Cook you can’t blame them, he had o200 yards from scrimmage by himself last week against a trash Giants defense, although didn’t get into the endzone for the first time this year. After a few open discussions they passed the ball a lot more last week with Thielen being the main recipient finishing with 130 and 2 TDs, and it looks like that could be he way this game goes too if the Eagles curtail the rushing game.

I like the Eagles especially getting the points, but it’s not in prime-time so that’s a bump up for the Vikings. It’s a tough one to call and should be a good hard-fought game.

Nothing on this bet-wise, I’d probably lean under on Cook but he’s so good it’s risky.

Seahawks (-1) @ Browns: 46.5

The seasons couldn’t have gone much differently for these two, the Seahawks are 4-1 after winning with a QB playing at an elite MVP level, and the Browns fucking suck with their QB seeing ghosts and playing like a pile of shit.

Russell Wilson really has been awesome this year, over 100 passer rating in every game, 73% completions, 12 TDs, 0 Ints, and throwing some beautiful passes, mainly to Tyler Lockett. He’s rightfully in the far far far too early MVP conversations and his mobility is always an asset as well.

I always think Tyler Lockett can’t keep up his ridiculous efficiency, but he keeps proving me wrong, so yeah, of course he can catch every pass every week, usually for a TD, why the hell not. He and DK Metcalf have formed a pretty decent partnership for Wilson with DK running his one route and being larger than most people he goes up against. He finished with 44 yards and a TD last week, and is set at 45.5 again this week. David Moore will get a redzone target or two in this one and remains a decent price despite being amazing and me constantly talking him up.

The Seahawks ideally want to run the ball though and Chris Carson has been great this season (barring a few fumbles) He’ll be in for a good workload in this one as well.

Baker Mayfield has not had a good start to the season, and while I want to blame his arrogant ass, it’s not all on him, his offensive line has been crap and he took a lot of punishment on Monday against the 49ers. The fact that despite signing Odell Beckham in the summer he’s had twice the number of interceptions that TDs is hilarious for a Bengals fan.

I do wonder how long it will be until the humble Mr. Beckham starts moaning about things in Cleveland as well, he’s been outplayed by Landry in recent weeks and the lack of protection for Mayfield seems to be adding a lot to that dynamic, as Mayfield doesn’t have the time to wait for Beckhams routes and dumps down to Landry instead. They should welcome back Rishard Higgins tonight though who has proven a solid receiver for Baker since he took over at QB and should help him out. David Njoku out again, so still Ricky Seal-Jones at TE.

The good news for the Browns is that at least one of Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams should return to bolster their secondary a little.

I want to say the Seahawks walk this one, and they probably should. But it’s going to click for the Browns at some point and they’ve got the talent to beat most teams in the league. I’ll still lean Seahawks but won’t be on the result or total in this one.

David Moore anytime – 6/1 (888/Uni), RSJ o15.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (365/Skybet)

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Redskins (-4) @ Dolphins: 42.5

The tank battle. One of these teams will win their first game of the season tonight, and to me, logically it should be the Redskins. The Dolphins are actively trying to get the #1 pick while the Redskins sacked their head coach this week as they clearly weren’t happy with being shit.

This should actually be a fairly entertaining game, much like the Bengals v Cards last week, won’t be filled with quality but I can feasibly see a decent matchup.

Case Keenum starts for the Redskins and Terry McLaurin should be back too. The new head coach has said he wants to go more run heavy so it should be a decent game for Adrian Peterson on the ground. Paul Richardson, Chris Thompson will be both be dangers in the passing game as well, and Trey Quinn should help out in the slot.

The Dolphins should be able to put up some points as well against a poor Redskins defense. I’ve actually been pretty impressed with Josh Rosen since he took over, and they’ve done a bit in the passing game mainly through Preston Williams and even Devante Parker has managed to catch a few balls. Williams leads the team in redzone targets this year with 6 while Parker has topped 50 in the three games he’s made any receptions this year. Kenyan Drake has had a few receptions and done a tiny bit on the ground as well.

I’ve got to lean the Redskins and despite this being the worst game of the day I like quite a few lines in it.

Adrian Peterson o56.5 rushing yards – 1.83 (Skybet); Devante Parker o40.5 rec. yards – 1.80 (PP) Preston Williams anytime – 3.75 (365/Hills) 

Falcons (-2.5) @ Cardinals: 52

This should be a high scoring game, neither team can defend as proven by the Falcons conceding 53 points last week, and as I say every week the Cardinals games just have a ton of plays in each game.

The Falcons are the better team, they’ve been great on offense despite/due to their D being atrocious. Matt Ryan is playing at a high level and has over 300 yards in each game, with multiple TDs in all bar one of them as well. It always helps having one of the best WRs in the league with Julio as well as Mo Sanu and Calvin Ridley filling out one of the best trios in the league. They’ve been unable to really get the run game going so far though as the struggles with their offensive line continue and they’ll be hoping to get that fixed tonight. They’ll get the chance at least.

The Cardinals were OK against my Bengals last week, Kyler Murray took over the game with his legs and he should be able to run a fair bit tonight as well against the Falcons. David Johnsons has been on the injury report this week with a back injury but is expected to play in this one, if he doesn’t look good then Chase Edmonds showed good burst last week and can do the job at RB for them.

I’d imagine Larry Fitzgerald will get a lot of the ball tonight in the slot, but they do welcome back Christian Kirk who missed out last week, he’s not fully practised this week but I’d expect him to play. If not they’re a little restricted in the passing game with Trent Sherfield as the WR3. Probably. Andy Isabella? Maybe.

I’ve got to take the Falcons in this one, despite them letting me down a few times this year, they’re the better team I like them and the overs in this.

Falcons -2.5 and over 52 points; 3.64 (365); Austin Hooper 2.63 (Skybet)

49ers (+3) @ Rams: 50.5

The game of the week? An NFC West showdown which could go a long way to deciding the who wins that division (sorry Seahawks fans)

The 49ers are unbeaten after a 4-0 start and they impressed in prime-time on Monday embarrassing the Browns in front of the eyes of the world. It was a great performance with Nick Bosa leading their defense to dominate the game up front, and they should have success tonight against a poorly rated Rams offensive line as well.

Jimmy Garoppolo has done what has been needed in the passing game, he hasn’t been required to do too much as they’re the best running team in the league this season with Matt Breida the main man there so far this season, remarkably last game were his first TDs of the season, one on the ground and one through the air. Tevin Coleman was back for that game and led the team in carries with 16 for 97 yards and a touchdown on his return from injury. Raheem Mostert still got carries as well finishing with 7. I think Coleman getting carries was mainly gamescript and helping him get back into things, but Shanahan has said he’ll be the RZ back for them.

They are without a couple of offensive linemen, without the best full back in the league (Kyle Juszczyk) who is a big loss for that running game, and George Kittle is likley to be limited by injury as well. I don’t think it will change their gameplan but it might slow that rush attack a little.

The Rams are without Todd Gurley so it will be Malcolm Brown leading the rushing attack, or what rushing attack there is anyway, they’ve barely used it so far this year, so I’m not sure what to make of it, the price on Brown anytime is shit anyway, so not much else to say there frankly, expect Darrell Henderson and John Kelly to back him up.

Jared Goff has thrown a ridiculous amount of passes so far this year; 222 attempts, an average of over 40 per game and without Gurley that will probably continue in this one as well. It looks like Brandin Cooks will be back for the Rams after leaving the game last week with concussion, but Cooper Kupp is clearly the man in the passing game having topped 100 yards in his last 4 games this year and scoring in his last 3. with at least 9 receptions in those 3. Robert Woods is fairly reliable though his numbers are a little down this year. They’ve been using the tight ends more this season but it’s tough to know what to expect from Gerald Everett who had a big game after Cooks went out last week.

Should be a good game, it’s a shame that injury has taken out/slowed a couple of the big players in it, but it will be entertaining still.

I’m leaning to the Rams at home, but won’t be backing either side.

Cowboys (-7) @ Jets: 44

The Cowboys are without a couple of offensive linemen this week Tyron Smith and La’el Collins both missing out and it’s usually a hit on the Cowboys whole offense when they miss a couple of players.

Luckily for them they’re going up against the Jets who have not been great this year. Dak will be able to throw on them with Cooper the main target once again. Michael Gallup was back last week and has started the season well, and Randall Cobb is officially questionable (seems he might miss out) so Devin Smith will probably get a bump. The betting brain trust seem to be high on Jason Witten scoring this week.

Zeke Elliott should have a decent game as the Jets are still without CJ Mosley at LB.

Sam Darnold returns for the Jets after playing/missing the season with Mono which is a big bump for them. He loves hitting Jamison Crowder in the slot although if he’s back healthy then he could have a few more targets for Robby Anderson further down the field. Demaryius Thomas is there too, although has done little so far.

Leveon Bell will be used in both facets and has had a lot of touches with Darnold out, both on the ground and in the passing game, that will probably drop a little with a competent QB in there but he’ll still get a lot.

I think the Jets will keep it tight so leaning to them ATS, and I think it will go under the 44 total.

Titans (+1.5) @ Broncos: 41

Two boring as hell teams for me in this one. Won’t be writing much. The Titans want to run the ball and the Broncos are shit vs the run, so should be a big game for Derrick Henry, he’s scored in 4 of 5 games so far this year, his longest rushing TD of the season? 1 yard. The Broncos are historically poor against Tight ends as well and Delanie Walker is a favourite target of Mariota for the Titans so I’m thinking he might have a decent game as well, could be AJ Brown again though as he’s the size of a tight end making him pretty tough to cover.

The Broncos are a little more interesting Courtland Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders are doing well at WR, Lindsay and Freeman both doing pretty well on the ground, and they’ve been unlucky to not be at least 3-2 this season, losing both their home games so far to last second field goals.

Delanie Walker o31.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (365/Skybet)

Steelers (+6) @ Chargers: 42

Devlin Hodges. The Steelers were forced into using their third string QB last week after Mason Rudolph was out cold on the field after taking a helmet to the chin in a worrying incident against the Ravens. It’s lucky it wasn’t a Bengal player making that hit, we wouldn’t have heard the end of it, but apparently it’s fine for Earl Thomas to hit someone in the chin and carry on playing the game, it’s barely even been mentioned this week. Anyway, Hodges set the record for the FCS in college throwing for over 14,000 yards at Samford. He looked pretty good last week and probably would have led them to the win had Juju not had the ball knocked out giving the ball back to Baltimore.

They also lost their other QB as Jaylon Samuels is out for a month with injury now, he’d had a lot of plays in the wildcat with varied results (he threw any INT last week) so it’s pretty much all James Conner again in the run game although Benny Snell might get a few carries. With a rookie QB you generally use the run game more, and short passes to RBs/TEs so it will be interesting to see how it goes in this.

It’s tough to make a case for any of the pass catchers, Juju is apparently good, James Washington misses out with injury, so Diontae Johnson will be the WR2. They might be forced to bring back Mr. Fumble Donte Moncrief alternatively Johnny Holton could be utilised more, he’s probably had more plays in practise with Hodges than anyone else. Vance McDonald should get a few targets in the middle of the field as well, but it’s tough to know how they’re going to play.

It goes without saying that the Chargers are beaten up, they always are. But they welcome back Hunter Henry at TE this week which will help them a lot in the passing game. He might take a few targets away from Keenan Allen who leads the league in targets so far this year and has performed well, they should have Mike Williams fit after playing a week or two with injuries, he still had targets in those games though with 13 against the Broncos last week and Travis Benjamin will add the downfield threat as always.

The main receiver for them last week with Austin Ekeler who had 15 catches for 86 yards as Rivers took what was on offer and dumped it off to him repeatedly. He was the best RB in fantasy football for the first 3 games with Melvin Gordon missing out, but Gordon is back now and it looks like it will be back to how they were with Gordon getting the ground work and Ekeler the passing work from the backfield.

Philip Rivers has lots of children.

Tough one to call with the unknown of the Steelers QB situation, their defense has been tight this year so I’d lean to them getting the points.

Devlin Hodges o11.5 rush yards – 1.83 (Skybet)

Summary (2pts per bet unless stated)

Main line treble –

  • Falcons v Cardinals o52, Falcons -2.5, Redskins -4 – 5.95/1 

Anytime TDs – 

  • David Moore – 7.00 (Uni/888)
  • Preston Williams – 3.75 (365/Hills)
  • Austin Hooper – 2.63 (Skybet)

Player Props – 

  • Willie Snead o3.5 receptions – 2.10 (Skybet) 
  • Dede Westbrook o4.5 receptions – 2.00 (Skybet)
  • RSJ o15.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (365/Skybet)
  • Adrian Peterson o56.5 rushing yards – 1.83 (Skybet) – NAP – 4 points. 
  • Devante Parker o40.5 rec. yards – 1.80 (PP)
  • Delanie Walker o31.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (365/Skybet)
  • Devlin Hodges o11.5 rush yards – 1.83 (Skybet)

(Quite like both TD trebles on Skybet for tonight as well btw)

So a lot more props than anything else this week – If you like props have a look at Glenn Scurfields Wonder-sheet it’s stupidly helpful for comparing props across the books.

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Good Luck with whatever you’re on.

Adam.

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