Yesterday was a rough day for myself and seemingly all of the UK based NFL community. We lost one of our own as Stevie Raynes (StevieTRay) lost his very quick battle with cancer. I was meant to have met him and Jack in London at the second NFL game for a few beers, messaged him a couple of weeks back and he said he was in hospital getting some tests, he found out 7 days ago that it was Liver cancer, and that was that. Seemingly it was too far gone, too aggressive and it took him yesterday. To say I’m gutted is an under-statement, every interaction I had with Steve was great and he seemed a great guy.
The out-pouring from a lot on twitter shows the stature of the man and the respect those within the community had for him, he’ll be missed. My thoughts are with Vicky and his family at this time.
It’s hit really hard with him being a similar age to myself, leaving his wife and kid without a husband and a father. Love your family, do everything you can for them because you don’t know when it’s all going to be taken away.
Jack Humphrey (JackHumphrey87 on twitter) set up a page when we found out the diagnosis – Please Donate – Cancer is a fucking horrible thing, so please donate if you can, you’ve even got a chance to win a signed jersey from it.
ALSO. It’s Remembrance weekend here in the UK, if you win anything this weekend or can, please donate to either Jack above or the British Legion.
ANYWAYS… On to the games…
Arizona Cardinals +4.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 52
This is the early Sky game this week and while it’s not one that’s going to be relevant to any post-season football it’s a good pick as it should be the highest scoring of the weekend and is priced as such. The Cardinals play quick football, so there will be a lot of plays, they’re pretty aggressive and good on the ground and through the air and in Kyler Murray have a QB who keeps the ball safe with just 4 INTs on the season and none in his last 5 games. On the other side you’ve got the man leading the league in interceptions in Jameis Winston. He’s not good for his team winning games but he’s good for entertainment and is supporting 2 of the top 3 fantasy WRs at the moment in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Evans has been the man for the last 3 weeks, but Godwin has still had nearly 250 yards in those game and I think he could be the man this week, in fairness I like both to score in this one, should be a good game for looking at both players to score on Skybet.
My bet though is one that @kyleianbrown put up on welovebetting – Jameis o23.5 completions (365) – 10/11
The Bucs are on my HATE list after the last few weeks, so it’s just a lean to them for me, and a like on the over.
Atlanta Falcons +13.5 @ New Orleans Saints: 51.5
Not quite as much to talk about on this one. They do have a lovely mirrored win and ATS record though 1-7 7-1, 2-6 6-2. Lovely. The Saints are 9-1 ATS coming off a bye, but this is a weird one with both teams coming off a bye. I would expect the Drew Brees led Saints to get out to a decent half time lead before Matt Ryan and the Falcons hit back when the game is out of sight in the second half.
The Falcons put RB2 Ito Smith on IR this week so I think it will be Brian Hill – 8.5 (888) who may get a few more touches this week. Decent odds on him to score another on the season.
Lean to Falcons covering the spread and unders.
Baltimore Ravens -10 @ Cincinnati Bengals: 44.5
Not quite as much I WANT to talk about on this one. My hope for the Bengals is that the Ravens had their Superbowl last week and this is a bit of a let-down spot for them. I still expect Lamar Jackson to run all over them, I still expect the Ravens to win, but I’m not going near this spread. They also have Marquise Brown back for this as well. The Bengals are seeing what they’ve got in Ryan Finley. Their season is over so I’m happy they’re giving him a go. He’ll be under pressure all day but looked good in the pocket in pre-season. He would have probably been better had AJ Green been out there but his ankle swelled up in training so he once again misses out.
I’m not sure what to make on that, the cynical neutrals think he’s trying to get on IR so he doesn’t have to play without an extension as his contract expires at the end of the season. I’m not so sure, he’s always said he wants to stay and become a Larry Fitz type guy, but the franchise is a fucking joke when it comes to rewarding stars, so fuck knows there.
Anyway, rest of the Bengals team… Tate and Erickson should continue their roles and Boyd generally does pretty well vs the Ravens.
I’ve got to lean to the Bengals covering 10 but wouldn’t ever bet it, and over on the total.
Lamar Jackson anytime TD – 2.30 (888) (There’s a RaB on Skybet at 4.50 for Lamar 100 rush yards and a TD which he achieved in their first matchup this season)
Buffalo Bills +3 @ Cleveland Browns: 40.5
6-2 team vs a 2-6 team. As underdogs… The books clearly want us to back the Bills, and logically that is where your money should go, but I just can’t do it. They’ve beaten absolute trash while the Browns have had a tough schedule all season. The Bills used Devin Singletary a lot last week, which is nice, he and John Brown should be the pieces they work around here.
It should be a run heavy game for the Browns as the Bills have been gashed on the ground so Chubb should have a good game. The returning Kareem Hunt, according to reports, should be the 3rd down back, but it’s a worry to Chubb stats. Tredavius White will probably sort out Odell and Baker looks a husk of a man at the moment. Which is fun.
Lean Cleveland, it’s a do or die game for them.
Detroit Lions +3 @ Chicago Bears: 43.5
Bleh. Tough one to call here. I think the better team are dogs on the road, but they Bears matchup well with the Lions and they gives me pause. The Lions don’t have a run game since Kerryon went to IR, Ty Johnson isn’t getting the chances and doesn’t do much when he gets it, JD McKissic is mixing in and adds variety to them, but it’s not helping them, so Stafford is throwing a lot and is on target for 5,000 yards again this year with 10 TDs, 3 INTs in his last 3 games. Golladay and Jones have been great, but that’s the strength of the Bears.
The Bears have no offense. 9 yards total in the first half last week. Hilarious. Trubisky. Not good. They haven’t been able to stop the run in the last few weeks either, but are still very good vs the pass.
This game could be horrible on offense. I wanted the under but it’s snuck too low for me. It’s actually OTB at the moment. There was a rumour going around about Matthew Stafford, so I’m guessing it’s due to that, but not sure. Either way this game is an avoid for me
Kansas City Chiefs -6 @ Tennessee Titans: 49.5
Patrick Mahomes returns, so… Chiefs win, right? They should do, either with Matt Moore I think they’d have had a decent chance, but then again I just don’t rate the Titans. Tyreek Hill has been great since he came back from injury and should have a good game with the Titans having put Malcolm Butler on IR this week which may hurt their defense. Damien Williams looks to have taken over the Chiefs backfield in the last couple of weeks and I’m expecting that to continue.
The Titans are tough to predict. They will run Derrick Henry a lot, they’re without Corey Davis for the pass game though so a slight bump for Humphries, AJ Brown and Jonnu Smith I’d imagine, but the Chiefs pass D has been surprisingly good this season.
Lean to the Chiefs covering and under on the total but it’s dodgy taking a Chiefs under.
Damien Williams o37.5 rush (PP) – 1.85
NY Giants -3 @ NY Jets: 44.5
The Jets stink like a butt. The Giants aren’t much better, these two have 3 wins between them. Evan Engram is out for the Giants, Barkley another week healthier, hopefully, He’s not been great since returning from injury, Tate, Slayton at WR for them, Rhett Ellison at TE.
The Jets? They’ve got the longest injury report ever, Bell is on there as questionable but it sounds like he’ll play, if not a mix of Bilal Powell and Ty Montgomery maybe? Who cares.
Although Jones has given the ball away a lot now, I still like the Giants to cover.
Giants -3 (Most places)
Miami Dolphins +10.5 @ Indianapolis Colts: 43.5
One of these teams comes into the game on a winning streak, and it’s not the Colts. The Dolphins lost their best WR this season in Preston Williams to IR, and the man they’d given the backfield Mark Walton to suspension this week which isn’t good for them. I think it’ll be Kalen Ballage as the main ball carrier, but it could be Jakeem Grant. Ryan Fitzpatrick will still throw the ball a lot, so probably more receptions for Devante Parker who has 4 scores in his last 5 games and second year tight end Mike Gesicki.
The Colts are without Jacoby Brissett so Brian Hoyer starts for them, TY Hilton is also still out so you’ve got to think it will be a lot of Marlon Mack on the ground, probably a fair few targets for the tight ends and even maybe Nyheim Hines.
I can’t take the Colts as double-digit favourites, every game they’ve played this year has been within 7 points (so tri-bet on 365 might be a decent look)
Mike Gesicki anytime – 6.00 (365)
Carolina Panthers +4.5 @ Green Bay Packers: 48
This should be a good game in Lambeau. The Panthers finally put Cam out of his misery this week and chucked him on IR so it’s Kyle Allens team now and he’s done a good job, just the 1 loss while he’s been at QB. Great record for him, but I’m not sure there’s a whole lot that he’s done to get them there. It’s all about Christian McCaffrey. He’s on target for over 2,500 combined yards this year and the best fantasy season in history, beating Ladanian Tomlinsons record, he’s scoring in both facets of the game as well, currently leading the league on 13 totals TDs with 10 of them on the ground in 8 games, 5 through the air and should do well against the #27 ranked run D in GB.
The run game should go well for the Packers as well with the Panthers dead last according to DVOA and the welshmen in the backfield have been good for them this season. Aaron Jones especially who is second in total TDs scored this year, 2 behind Mr. CMC on 11. His team-mate Jamaal Williams has a receiving TD in 4 straight games now as well. They had Davante Adams back last week who had a lot of targets with minimal results.
Packers have to bounce back after the shit-show they put up last week, I think they cover and total goes over.
Aaron Jones anytime – 1.72 (Betfair)
LA Rams -4 @ Pittsburgh Steelers: 43
Good luck getting the right side on this one. Jared Goff isn’t too great on the road, he’s not great in the cold, he’s not great under pressure and all 3 of those things are probably going to happen to him in this one. The Rams are the better team, better offense, better coaching, but I’m not entirely sure it means much in this. Brandin Cooks is out again with concussion so Josh Reynolds at 4.33 isn’t too shabby.
As much as I despise the Steelers I have to admit their defense has been great since they gave up their 1st round pick for Minkah Fitzpatrick. They don’t have a QB for when Big Ben leaves, but their defense might be able to carry on winning them games. Mason Rudolph is turd, all he does is dump off to Jaylen Samuels and it’s ruining their entire offense. Which is nice.
Lean to the Steelers and under.
o3.5 sacks 1.80 (365)
Minnesota Vikings +3 @ Dallas Cowboys: 48.5
A great game to finish off the weekend, but one that’s not easy to call on paper. Unfortunately for most of the NFL watching public it probably is easy to call on the field because it’s a prime-time game, on the road, under the bright lights against a team with a winning record. That’s basically an instant lose for Kirk Cousins. Ole Kirky Boy apparently likes his routine and late games fuck him up a bit. It doesn’t help that he’s without Adam Thielen who aggravated his hammy so it may well be Olabisi Johnson and Stefon Diggs getting more attention, as well as Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith getting more targets. Although it was somehow Laquon Treadwell who got the yards last week. It will probably be a run heavy game though with Dalvin Cook going indirectly up against Ezekiel Elliott.
Cook leads the league in rush yards (at 5.1 per), 150ish ahead of Zeke (4.7) and it will be intriguing to see who does what in this one. Both are great to watch and it’s a shame it’s the late game to be honest. The Cowboys are healthier than the Viks, the offensive line is all good and that’s all the team really needs tbh. Amari Cooper had an MRI on his knee but should be good to go. Along with Gallup and Cobb it’s a decent trio and even old man Witten is still targeted frequently at tight end with Blake Jarwin mixing in occasionally.
Should be a good one to finish off the weekend, lean to Cowboys and under.
- Cards v Bucs o52;- 10/11
- Giants -3;- 10/11
- Lamar Jackson – 2.30 (888) – NAP – 4 pts
- Brian Hill – 8.50 (888) – 1pt
- Mike Gesicki – 6.00 (365) – 1pt
- Aaron Jones – 1.72 (Betfair) – NB – 3 pts
- NAP/NB Double – 3.45 (888)
- Damien Williams o37.5 rush (PP) – 1.85
So, a slimmed down affair this week. It’s been a busy few weeks for me, and things aren’t exactly going well on the bets so far, so not a busy one on here.
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