Week 10 – TNF – LA Chargers @ Oakland Raiders; #BoltUp #RaiderNation

All right, all right, all right, I’ve largely had about a week off now, well on here anyway, and it’s probably come at the right time. It’s been tough going recently. Frankly. It’s been shite. So thank you for continuing to read my articles and for the lack of any abuse that I have received on twitter. Official tips on here are still slightly in profit on the season, but it hasn’t been good enough over the last few weeks.

I’ve had a little criticism over on MrFixIt but, frankly, I think it’s probably deserved and I’m just hoping my luck turns around. What do you do when you hit a flat spot? Double down the effort, and sort shit out.

I had a great time at the Jaguars v Texans despite it being a hideous game for the neutral to watch, the Jags were shocking and the Tash has paid the price, already replaced by BDN for them for their game after the bye. Deshaun Watson is great to watch in person though and must be a nightmare for the opposing defenders, he’s just un-sackable at times. So many times he was practically in the grasp of someone only to spin out and make a sideline pass down the field.

Los Angeles Chargers -1.5 @ Oakland Raiders: 49

+/1 on 365, +/- 2 on Skybet

Week 10 kicks off with the 4-5 Chargers visiting the Black hole to take on the 4-4 Raiders.

  • The Chargers are 3-5-1 ATS so far with the totals 2-7.
    • 2-2 on the road ATS, 1-3 to the Unders
  • The Raiders are 5-3 with the totals also at that same 5-3 record.
    • 5 of their last 6 games have gone over the total.
    • 2-1 ATS at home, 1-2 on the totals. (One of their ‘home games’ was at Spurs)

I was going to post some records against divisional rivals, records between these two teams in Oakland and things like that. But frankly… I’m not sure there’s a whole lot of correlation there. The Chargers have had the same HC for 3 years now, but just changed OC and looked different last week. The Raiders have only had Gruden for 2 years now, and his first year was more transitional than representational in my opinion so I’m preferring to look at their records this year rather than the last decade or so.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers put up a remarkable performance last week to shock the Green Bay Packers in LA. I definitely didn’t see it coming, saying that I didn’t see a lot changing for the Chargers and writing them off quite quickly against one of the form teams/QBs in the league. The key to the game seems to have been the pass rush with Melvin Ingram back to health. He and Bosa seem to have been living in the backfield all night. The offensive line with Okung returning seems to have been a huge boost too (must be nice having your LT return during the season. sigh.)

It helps that it seems like, possibly, maybe Melvin Gordon may be back to health and form as well. He appears to have got better week on week, finishing last week at 4 ypc, 80 from 20 attempts and 2 TDs, both from a yard on the ground and 29 yards receiving. Obviously they were in charge of that game and it allowed Gordon and Ekeler to put up good rushing stats against a poor GB rush defense. Ekeler himself finished on 5.8 ypc from 12 attempts and 23 through the passing game. They have been trying to get Gordon going since he sat out for a lot of the off-season and indeed season, and he might finally be there.

Other than producing babies at an impressive rate Philip Rivers is also a damn good QB and it’s a shame that he’ll probably only make the “Hall of very good” as he’s had a good career without ever taking a team far enough to get the credit he probably deserves. It’s become a bit of a joke how injury prone this team has been over the last few years and that’s something that’s really hurt them. The offensive line being the main detractor to their performances this season. Something which was aided by Okungs return last week. He’s been solidly mid-table for a lot of the season, 2,609, 12:7 and a QBR that puts him at 16th.

The passing game…well, it should go through Keenan Allen but he’s not had a good time of it recently, in fact 404 of his 657 yards came in the first 3 games of the season, so just 253 in his last 6 games. The return of Gordon and Hunter Henry have really hurt his stat-line this last month or so and I’m not sure that will change in this one. The big play guy last game was Mike Williams who had the first 100+ yard game of his career finishing with 111. Hunter Henry returned from injury a month ago and has had 328 in his 4 games since then, his only scores coming in his first game back. It’s actually a fairly narrow passing attack for the Chargers with quite a lot coming out of the backfield.

The Raiders defense gives up around 200 ypg to WRs (worst in the league), 65 or so to TE (6th worst) but they’ve not faced anyone on HH’s level. Running backs are averaging about 50 ypg receiving (8th worst in the league) and around 80 on the ground to them.

The Chargers defense was great last week, Bosa and Ingram showing they’re one of the best pass rush duos in the league. They should be able to beat the offensive line, but it may not end in sacks as Derek Carr generally gets the ball out of his hands pretty quickly and negates pass rush to a certain extent.

Der Raaaaaaaaiddddddddddeeeeerrrrrrssssssssssssssss

For me, probably the most positively surprising team in the league this year (the Browns are probably the most surprising with how shit they’ve been) I did not expect the Raiders to do a thing this year, and beyond that, I definitely didn’t expect them to be entertaining, yet here we are.

Carr and Gruden seem to be on the same page this year after a lot of talk of them not seeing eye to eye last season. This year Carr is 1st in Comp % (71.2), 1st in 3rd Down TDs (9), 1st in 3rd Down Passer Rating (140.1), 6th in Overall Passer Rating (105.1) and 7th in Red Zone TDs (10) – That’s pretty good as is the 13:4 TD to INT stat-line.

A lot of his 1,984 passing yards have gone in the direction of the tight ends, mainly Darren Waller who 548 on the season and has been the most reliable guy for them week in, week out. He’s topped 100 on a couple of occasions but finished with 52 last week from just 2 receptions last week, Foster Moreau has chipped in a couple of times too. The Raiders performance is even more impressive when you consider they’re quite short at WR still. Tyrell Williams returned this week, he’s got 5 TDs in 6 games this year and rookie Hunter Renfrow seems to be coming on having had a TD in his last 2 games. Zay Jones is also currently a paid employee of the Raiders, who apparently led the WRs in snaps last week, and completed 1 of 2 redzone targets… 5/1 anytime, not too shabby.

The running game is where they’ve looked best though with rookie Josh Jacobs currently on a skooch below 5 ypc on the season having finished last week with 2 TDs, 120 yards to 4.3 per. He’s really good in the passing game too but still seemingly limited in this offense. Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington seem to get the ball there, Richard actually led the team in rec. yards last week.

The Chargers are 11th worst vs the run, 21st worst vs WRs, midtable vs TEs.

Summary

Um.

Yeah, not sure.

With it being a Thursday night I automatically lean towards the home team, they’ve won 5-3 SU, although only 2-6 ATS. With the underdogs having covered 6 of 8 ATS this year as well.

So I think the Raiders win, and therefore cover. The total is a little more tricky, and just a lean to the overs.

  • Hunter Henry o63.5 rec. yards – 1.90 (Unibet) – 3 points

Oh come on, I’m trying to be sensible with my bets and then I see that there’s a Hunter double available at 14/1?! (using my free 5 from the Skybet Rab offer on this one, will figure out what my 10 goes on later)

  • Hunter Renfrow and Hunter Henry both to score – 14/1 (Skybet) – 1 point

Not a whole lot of value on TD scorers tbh, I was looking for Renfrow, Moreau being higher odds but 10/3 and 7/2 aren’t exactly compelling. Marcell Ateman the only BIG odds that I’d ponder anything on, he caught a pass last week but that makes 2 on the year.

Right, bring it, the fuck. On.

I’ve got a Showdown comp on this match actually… Chargers v Raiders comp – Click below to join.

NFL19_UK10Bonus_728x60

With it being Remembrance Day this weekend I always like to ask for people donate if you happen to win anything on my tips. Please do if you can https://www.britishlegion.org.uk/get-involved/ways-to-give/donate

Adam.

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