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Houston Texans +4.5 @ Baltimore Ravens: 51.5
Looks like I’m starting with the best game of the weekend as the AFC South and North leaders take to the field in Baltimore. The Texans are coming off their bye after a London game so will be rested but an interesting little stat, the 6 teams who’ve played after a London bye this season have all lost in their return to action.
They were dominant in an easy win over the Jaguars and will look to carry that momentum forward, Carlos Hyde was the main man for them over there and DJJ put in some work as well as the run game took over the game for them. As always Nuk Hopkins was targeted frequently and Kenny Stills did OK despite injury. Will Fuller is nearing fitness but misses out this week. Darren Fells continues to be a red-zone threat for them as well.
The Ravens look unstoppable at the moment and came up with inventive plays in their mauling of the Bengals last week including the much talked about Heissman set with Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram and RG3 all in the backfield at once. Lamar Jackson is so incredibly difficult to defend as he can kill you through the air or on the ground and his burst once a gap opens is great to see. The coaching there has been brilliant and Harbaugh and Romain deserve a lot of credit for what they’ve done to build around him. Marquise Brown should be good to go although probably not a whole lot of snaps and the tight ends are all fit.
With the way the Ravens have played in the last month I can’t see past them covering this spread. My one reservation is that Deshaun Watson hasn’t lost by more than a TD since high school. They can still cover and have that happen, so I’ll go Ravens to cover and over on the total.
Every player is above evens on this one. Gus Edwards o21.5 combined yards – 1.83 (365/Skybet)
I’m going to have to blitz through the rest of this. Family calls.
Atlanta Falcons +5.5 @ Carolina Panthers: 50.5
Freeman out, Brian Hill the main back for the Falcons. Not too much news on the Panthers, they can’t defend the run so it will be whether Hill is good enough to do it against them. Christian McCaffrey is a phenom.
Lean Falcons to cover, over on points
Dallas Cowboys -7 @ Detroit Lions:46.5
Cowboys are decent, they’ll probably try and get Zeke going again. They’ve got weapons in the passing game, the Lions aren’t exactly great against anything thrown at them. Lions starting Driskel as Stafford misses out again, Ty Johnson will play after passing concussion protocol. Driskel wasn’t awful last week.
Lean Cowboys and overs. Blake Jarwin anytime – 7.00 (Betfair/365)
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 @ Indianapolis Colts: 44.5
AFC South battle, both in with a small chance of making the playoffs. Colts will have Brissett back, Jags have Foles back at QB. Foles is probably still an upgrade on Minshew despite how well the ‘tash has played. All off-season the talk was of the connection of Dede and Foles so you’d expect he’ll get a lot of the ball. For the Colts I’d assume it will be a lot of Mack and should be better for Pascal as well.
Nothing on this one for me.
Buffalo Bills -6.5 @ Miami Dolphins: 40.5
The line in Buffalo the other week was over 2 TDs, the Dolphins have covered 5 games in a row now. The Bills have under-performed and don’t seem to have much offense at the moment. They have been using Devin Singletary more although Frank Gore still seems to be the goal-line back. The Bills are worse vs the run than the pass but I’m not sure Ballage and the Dolphins will be able to exploit that. Fitzpatrick has been great for them though.
Lean to the Dolphins covering the spread and over. Devin Singletary o2.5 receptions – 1.90 (Uni/888)
Denver Broncos +10 @ Minnesota Vikings: 40.5
Brandon Allen continues for the Broncos, wasn’t bad in his first game for them but this is a tougher test. The Vikings dominate poor teams at home and Cousins does well in this time-slot. They’re around 75% covering the spread against weaker teams. Dalvin Cook is awesome.
Take the Vikings to cover, nothing on total.
New Orleans Saints -5.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 51.5
Should be a cracker this one, Brees didn’t look great last week but was under a lot of pressure from Atlanta passrush. He’ll likely aim for Michael Thomas a hell of a lot and his receptions line has dropped from last week to 8.5. He’s topped that line in all but 2 games this year and had 11 and 16 receptions vs the Bucs last year. Jameis Winston will throw 2 INTS, but 4 TDs for 372 yards in an entertaining narrow defeat.
Lean Saints to cover and overs. Michael Thomas o8.5 receptions – 1.90 (Uni/888) – NAP – 5 points.
New York Jets +2.5 @ Washington Redskins: 38
I don’t get the line movement on this one, the Jets were +1 earlier in the week so the money seems to be on the Redskins. I can’t take the Redskins. The Jets have a decent run defense, the Redskins can only run the ball and haven’t scored a TD in a month. Even the Jets should be able to put up points on the Redskins.
Jets win and obviously cover. Jamison Crowder o4.5 receptions – 1.71 (Uni/888) also like the Jets to score a TD in the first quarter at 2.75 on 365, they’ve scored on their first drive the last 3 games.
Arizona Cardinals +10 @ San Francisco 49ers: 44
They met a couple of weeks back in Arizona and the Cards put up a good fight. They face the 49ers now without Kittle who left part way through that game, he’s a vital part of the 49ers offense. The Cards are clicking now and look good in parts, mainly 3rd/4th quarters… Murray is actually pretty good for a midget, and the likes of Kirk, Fitz and seemingly Andy Isabella are coming on nicely.
Lean to the Cards covering and the overs (a repeat of two weeks ago) – Andy Isabella anytime 11.0 (365)
Cincinnati Bengals +10.5 @ Oakland Raiders: 49.5
The Bengals can’t defend. They can’t throw the ball. It’s not good. Finley wasn’t awful and they finally used Mixon last week although in a blowout loss. The Raiders allow a lot of deep passes, so I like Tate o44.5 rec. yards. Josh Jacobs should be able to do what he wants in this one, Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfrow should do well and Carr should have a good game as a result.
Got to lean Raiders covering but they’ve not won by more than 8 points for a few seasons now so just a lean. And overs. Auden Tate o44.5 receiving yards – 1.85 (PP)
New England Patriots -4 @ Philadelphia Eagles: 44.5
Should be a great game. The Pats can’t run the ball and the Eagles run D is good so ignore them in that area of the game. Should be a lot of Edelman, Sanu et al in the passing game. The Eagles are without Jeffrey which is a big loss for them and you’d imagine the Pats will concentrate on stopping Ertz. The Eagles have pieces back in the secondary though which could be very important for them in this one.
Both teams are coming off a bye and are 4-5-1 in their last 10 when returning.
Very tough one to call, I’d lean Eagles at home as the Pats only challenge this year ended in a loss to the Ravens but it’s always risky backing against them.
Chicago Bears +6 @ Los Angeles Rams: 40
Urgh. Not worth staying up for this one, neither team is clicking on offense. Trubisky sucks, but worryingly for Goff they have fairly similar stats over their two and a bit years in the league. Stop Allen Robinson and you’ll stop the Bears. The Rams must look to re-establish Kupp and try and stop the pass rush.
I have such disgust for the Bears I’d lean to the Rams covering, and both teams are 3-6 to the unders so even though it’s low and getting lower I’d still lean that way.
It seems like I’m saying this every week recently, turns out November is apparently insanely busy for me. So apologies for the content, it’s not great.
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Long live Myles Garrett.
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