Week 11 – MNF – Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers in Mexico City; #ChiefsKingdom #BoltUp

Not the worst day in the world yesterday but could have been better had Michael Thomas hauled in one of the 3 targets he didn’t catch, frustratingly he finished on 8 receptions from 11 targets, meaning my NAP lost which is very annoying.

But had a couple of winners from the others, Gus Edwards flew over his yards, Crowder had 5 receptions, so topped his number and the Jets scored once again in the first quarter of the game, the biggest odds of the night at 2.75, Auden Tate got his yards before leaving the game with a horrible looking knock which he seems to have escaped serious injury from.

Jarwin anytime, Singletary recs, Isabella anytime all lost, two were price-based as stand-alone odds on TD at 6/1 and 10/1, and the Singletary receptions. Well that was a bad shout as he finished with none. Think they need stiffer opposition to have to pass the ball to him. – Finished the night with a slight loss, a couple of points down, that one receptions from Thomas was a 10 point swing though!


Chiefs -5 @ Chargers: 52.5

So the game goes ahead in Mexico this year, if you remember last year they cancelled it due to the field being a proper state, and it should be a high scoring affair. The books definitely consider it to be one.

I’ve put a post up on Sports Book Review – MNF Props talking about the altitude and various bets which I think look better due to it being 7,000+ feet above sea-level. So I’m not going to go into too much detail on this post, I’m trying to get a Monday night preview out each week mainly to get the lines listed early in the week so I can judge any movement as the week goes on.

Chiefs.

The Chiefs lost in a bizarre game in Tennessee last week, they out-gained them convincingly but couldn’t slow Derrick Henry, even then it took some special teams craziness for the Titans to win the game for them. The Chiefs have been poor vs the run this season while their passing defense has been much improved.

Patrick Mahomes returned a few weeks after dislocating his kneecap and looked fine, he threw a jump pass which had everyone creaming, and in fairness was impressive once again. 36 from 50 for 446 yards isn’t a bad return and they even got the run game going with Damien Williams finishing with 77 yards from 19 carries after Lesean McCoy was made a healthy scratch.

The passing yards went mainly to Tyreek Hill who had 11 receptions from 19 targets for 157 yards, Mecole Hardman had a huge reeption as well speeding away from the defense for a 63 yard score. With the altitude I’d imagine there will be some long receptions tonight as well and the Chiefs are definitely the team who can take advantage of that. Kelce plugged along like he has done his whole career, mid-70s yards and a TD for him last game.

Their man Harrison Butker had a good game too, 4 of 5 field goals. He could be an important man in the game tonight.

mnf-chiefs-chargers-picks-696x465playpicks.com

Chargers.

The Chargers last played on Thursday night a week and a bit ago and have been training at altitude to try and help the travel to Mexico which in theory should set them in good stead.

Philip Rivers seems to have fallen off a cliff this year. He’s one of my favourite players to watch because he does it so differently to everyone else, definitely not classic but entertaining nonetheless. He’s had a QBR under 50 for the season and the last game he played was 25, that 3 interception nightmare on TNF 10 days ago.

It’s coincided with a big decline in the numbers of Keenan Allen who was the only guy trusted in the early parts of the season but Melvin Gordon and Hunter Henry’s return has meant he sees less of the ball now. It’s been 7 games since Allen found the endzone. Amazingly given the size of him Mike Williams is yet to score a TD this year either, and even Hunter Henry has only had 3 this year, 2 in his return from injury and 1 in the game last week. They actually have a very narrow pass catching corps with their deep threat Travis Benjamin out. So it may well be a lot of passes to the running backs.

Melvin Gordon seems to have found his feet having made himself available for them finally, it’s taken a few weeks for him to get up to speed but he had 23 touches last week and I’d expect around that again in this one and he should do well as that’s the area you can take advantage of against the Chiefs. Austin Ekeler seems to have returned to his pass catching although only had 2 receptions last week.

They’ve got themselves a decent kicker now that the Money Badger has returned for them. He’s hit 5 of 6 field goals and converted all his extra points.

Summary

Should be a cracking game and one I wish I had the Tuesday off work for, the Chiefs should have too much for the Chargers to keep up with though. I think they’ll cover the spread and I’d lean over although it’s not one I want to take.

As I said on the SBR post, expect points in the second half/4th quarter as defenses start to tire. The Chiefs 1st half points has ticked over 14 now so I’ll give that a miss.

The field goal on has gone up 2 yards since earlier in the week but I’ll still have it.

  • Longest field goal scored – o46.5 yards – 1.83 (365)

Good Luck if you follow.

Because there should be a lot of points I’ve got a MNF Showdown Comp on Draftkings set up if you fancy a small $5 entry to try and win some cash.

If you do win, or have won over the weekend please consider donating to this amazing campaign run by the Kickers Matter boys after the loss of Stevie Raynes a week ago. He left behind a wife and a kid and I can’t even imagine the turmoil they’ll have been suffering through over this last few weeks.

I was in a few dynasty leagues with Steve, and in his final weeks on this planet he beat me in two of them, the sod. He was a great guy to talk to about NFL or Fantasy and just because he supported the Patriots it’s not something we should hold against him. He’ll have been loving all these tight ends scoring in the last couple of weeks! Especially his boy MAndrews!


Week 12 lines –

Colts +4 @ Texans: 46
Bucs +5 @ Falcons: 52.5
Broncos +4.5 @ Bills: 38
Giants +6.5 @ Bears: 40.5
Steelers -6.5 @ Bengals: 39
Dolphins +10.5 @ Browns: 44.5
Panthers +10 @ Saints: 46.5
Raiders -3 @ Jets: 47
Seahawks +1 @ Eagles: 48.5
Lions -3.5 @ Redskins: 43
Jags +3.5 @ Titans: 41.5
Cowboys +6.5 @ Pats: 46.5
Packers +3 @ 49ers 46.5

Ravens -3 @ Rams: 46.5

 

A quick look I like the Ravens and Lions, overs in Bucs v Falcons and Steelers v Bengals.

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