Week 12 – SNF – Previews and betting tips #SNF100 #WhoDey #TDTips300

NFL119_UK10Bonus_708960

Draftkings have extended their Deposit $5 get $10 bonus, so if you’re yet to sign up and want to see what Daily fantasy football is about then now is the perfect time to do it, and once you do make sure you join my league and you’ll get notified when there’s new contests up as well as my weekly $5 entry, top 3 contest.

It’s the 300th POST!!!!

Well, it’s the 301st but I forgot to mention it on Thursday and no-one knows other than me, so I’m claiming the 300th post as this one. I’ll delete an old one or something to make it true.

Weird game of Thursday apparently. The Colts despite losing just kept running the ball. Neither team play until December now, so they’ve got a while to recover from any knocks and if the Colts were conservative because of any Brissett injury then they’ll be happy for the break. It gave the Texans an important win though and they’re odds on for the division now because of it.

On to Sunday though and those evil fuckers taking on my lovely innocent pile of garbage Begnals will surely be the one everyone wants to watch on gamepass?

Bucs +3.5 (was 5) @ Falcons: 52

I must not back the Bucs. I must not back the Bucs. I must not back the Bucs… They’re the worst team in the league against the spread but receive money every week because they’ve got so much talent on offense! But they’ve also got Jameis Winston who every week will throw for over 300 yards, but likely 3+ INTs. His last 5 games he’s thrown 13 interceptions, over 300 yards in each and 8 TDs. He’s got the weapons with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin doing most of the work but Scott Miller got a few deep bombs last week against the Saints as well. (10/1 for him isn’t horrible) The Bucs can stop the run though and have done all season.

That won’t matter to the Falcons too much who are on back up RBs anyway, they’ll be throwing a lot too hence the reason this is the highest total of the week. Historically they’ve covered the total in 5 of the last 6 matchups between these two including a 57.5 last year. They come in revived on defense though after holding the Saints to 9 and Panthers to 3 points since their bye and are getting pressure on QBs finally. I can see this being a Julio blow up game, he does well against the Falcons and hasn’t scored since week 3. I’m thinking 160+ and 2 TDs for him tonight, he had 144 and 138 with a TD against the Bucs last year and arguably this Bucs secondary is worse. Calvin Ridley (68.5) and Russell Gage (32.5) are probably in for good games too, Ridley led the team with 143 yards last week, Gage 2 for 32.

Quite a few things to choose from here, Ryan pass yard, Julio rec. yards, Calvin Ridley TD, Jameis interceptions, or just the over (Tampa have gone over in their last 8 games) – I think I’ll plump for Matt Ryan o305.5 passing yards – 1.83 (365/Skybet)

Falcons win, no bet on spread, lean overs.

Broncos +4 (was 4.5) @ Bills: 38

Won’t be quite as long a preview on this one, although it’s going to be the first eagerly awaited ALLEN ON ALLEN ACTION of the season. The Broncos threw away another win last week giving up a 20-0 lead to the Vikings. Brandon Allen looked fine again but they dug out a ton of trick plays to move down the field and the passing game will struggle against the Bills D. The run game should do fairly well though so Lindsay and Freeman should be able to put up yards.

The Bills have been using Devin Singletary more on the ground with Gore still mixing in. 15 carries to 11 last week in an easy win vs the Dolphins. I don’t think the Broncos will get out to a big lead in this one so they should be able to use them both again. Josh Allen is adequate and has been surprisingly safe with the ball; 5 games without an INT now and not even a sack last week. He’s great running the ball too and his head coach works well with him, he’s scored 7 rushing TDs this year including 4 in his last 3 games. His favourite target is John Brown who I’d imagine will get Chris Harris coverage so it may be tough for them to move the ball through the air.

Got to think the run game for both teams should have good games in a low-scoring affair. Bills should win, no bet on thems

Giants +6 (was 6.5) @ Bears: 40

Another one that shouldn’t need too much preview. The Giants are coming off the bye, Saquon has had a bit of time to rest up and review his 13 carries for 1 yard from their last game. Daniel Jones could be in for another multi-turnover game against a still fairly decent pass defense, it does look like Sterling Shepard will return from concussion finally although they’ll be without Evan Engram again. Darius Slayton had a big game last time out and Golden Tate has been good since starting for them as well.

Mitchell Trubisky is playing, so the Bears will be unwatchable. They don’t even deserve me looking into them.

Nice middle on Saquon carries 15.5 on 365/ 18.5 on Paddypower if that’s your kind of thing.

Giants win and cover. Trubisky is shit.

Steelers -5.5 (was -6.5) @ Bengals: 37.5 (was 39)

Right, I am unbiased. This is going to be a shit-fest. The Steelers come in with one of the worst QBs in the league and missing their pro-bowl center after he kicked someone in the head last week. Mason Rudolph is atrocious and the brawl at the end of last game means it was largely overlooked how bad he was; a QBR rating of 13.9, 1 TD and 4 INTs last week. He just dumps the ball off half a yard down the field and lets everyone else do the work. That worked well against the Bengals in their first matchup though so I wouldn’t be shocked to see that happen again and Jaylon Samuel to have a lot of short receptions. They are without James Conner and Juju Smith-Schuster through injuries, but Benny Snell should return for them at RB and the wide receivers will be James Washington who actually did OK last week and Diontae Johnson who’s passed concussion protocol. Outside of those two you’re looking at Jonny Holton (usual kick returner) and possibly newly signed Deon Cain. Cain is 22/1 on Uni/888 if you want a total shot in the dark.

The Bengals may be one of the teams with a worse QB starting for them which is a damning indictment of the state of them as a franchise at the moment, they’re staring down the barrel of 0-16 and most likely to get the first pick in the draft next year (although do have the Jets and Dolphins on the schedule). In fairness they’ve had the second hardest strength of schedule so far but it’s not been pretty.

They did put up a fight against Oakland though and scored their first rushing TD of the season as Joe Mixon got himself into the endzone. He’s been loaded up since Ryan Finley took over with 45 carries in the past two weeks, 30 and 15, in fairness to Joe he’s run well this year in a terrible team. Auden Tate had been putting together a good season too but is questionable after suffering a bad head injury last week. Tyler Boyd had a moan about his lack of ball which usually means he’ll get more targets this week and without Tate he’ll have to, outside of Boyd you’re looking at Alex Erickson and Damion Willis, probably. Tyler Eifert should get more targets too as the Steelers defense will likely take care of everyone else.

Should be a lot of sacks in this one, both teams can bring pressure and the Bengals took 8 sacks alone in the first matchup between these teams – Total sacks o4.5 – 1.61 (Bet365) (Have requested 5,6 and 7 on Skybet but that’ll take a while, I’d expect 2.00, 4.00 and hopefully nearer 10s on them, we’ll see.)

I want to say Bengals win, but it’ll be the ultimate Bengals game losing to backups.

Dolphins +10.5 @ Browns: 46 (was 44.5)

The best explanation I’ve heard as to what really happened at the end of the Browns game last week came from the guys on the SGP (Sports gambling podcast) that Myles Garrett was actually being a good citizen, he saw a player on the field without a helmet on and was trying to kindly replace it on to that players head, but the aggression of the scumbag Steelers QB meant he missed his aim slightly. Seems the most likely story tbh.

Anyway, they’re without Garrett and Ogunjobi in this one so have lost a lot of their pressure providers on defense. That should mean time for Ryan Fitzpatrick who has played surprisingly well and uses Devante Parker quite a lot. He’s topped 50 yards in the last 5 and 8 of his 10 games this season (set at 59.5 tonight) I like Mike Gesicki to have a decent game too he’s had 6 targets a game in the last 3 since Preston Williams went to IR. The run game has been Kalen Ballage but he’s shit, so Patrick Laird could get more of the ball, he caught 6 of 6 for 51 yards last week against the Bills, you can get 6.5 on him scoring at WillHill. Shout out to cousin Clive at tight end for the Dolphins.

The Browns should have a decent game against the worst defense in the league, Baker has been more secure recently and while Odell Beckham will take the main coverage (the Dolphins actually have one good cornerback) Jarvis Landry should have a good game as the Dolphins are poor vs short passes. Rashard Higgins is the WR3 and has a good connection with Baker. But the one I like in the passing game is RB Kareem Hunt. He’s got a set role as the pass catching back and has 6 and 7 receptions in his two games with the team so far. He’s set at 3.5 receptions tonight at 1.83. The running game should be 20 carries for Nick Chubb again who should have a decent game as well.

Kareem Hunt o3.5 receptions – 1.83 (365/Skybet) – NAP – 5 points.

Browns win, lean over and them covering the spread.

Panthers +9.5 (was +10) @ Saints: 46

The Panthers dropped a deuce last week against the Bucs, Kyle Allen didn’t look good at all, but CmcC still had 193 total yards, he’s pretty good. DJ Moore was highly targeted again while Curtis Samuel gets the deep passes aimed his way. Moore has 7,9 and 8 receptions in his last 3 games, set at 5.5 for this one. Greg Olsen finished with 5-57 last week too.

The Saints are a weird one as well, Drew Brees may be on the downward slope and they’re a highly concentrated offense with Michael Thomas doing most of the work. He let me down last week with 8 receptions which is a poor game for him. The Panthers have a good pass defense though so it will more likely be Kamara and Murray doing a lot of the work in this one. 13 and 10 carries respectively for them last week.

I got nothing, Saints should win, would lean to Panthers covering.

Raiders -3 @ Jets: 46 (was 47)

It’s a trap. After winning a few in a row the Raiders travel east for an early kick off to the resurgent Jets. They face the Chiefs next week so could be looking ahead to that one. Either way the Raiders like to run the ball and the Jets matchup well there as the second best run D in the league. Carr will have to throw the ball so better games for Tyrell Williams and Hunter Renfrow expected as well as the twin tight ends Waller and Moreau.

The Jets have done well recently, Darnold and Crowder doing most of the work especially early on where they’ve scored on first drives over the last few weeks. Robby Anderson should have a good game against a Raiders team who are poor at defending the deep ball but hasn’t done much this year at all. Ryan Griffin had his first 100 yard game last week and a TD and was targeted a lot in the redzone. Leveon Bell is showing that it’s sometimes scheme that makes the RB look good…

I think Jets sneak the upset here. Josh Jacobs o2.5 receptions – 2.50 (365/Skybet)

Seahawks +1.5 (was +1) @ Eagles: 47.5 (was 48.5)

An important one in the NFC with the Seahawks looking to strengthen their push for the playoffs and the Eagles looking to stay in the hunt. The Seahawks are coming off a bye after their overtime win in SF the week before and needed the rest with Tyler Lockett suffering a leg injury. I think he’s playing in this one but it was a worry for them, he needs to play for them he’s key to Wilson and this team. Other than him DK Metcalf has been playing well and Josh Gordon had a few key receptions in his first start for them. Jacob Hollister has been scoring regularly at Tight end, priced at 6.00 anytime on 365.

The Eagles are without their RT Lane Johnson and things fell apart without him last week, they’ve been frustrating this year as their skill positions have been riddled with injuries. Alshon Jeffery and/or Nelson Agholar are probably missing out, still waiting on team news but they promoted a WR from the practise squad which is usually a sign someone isn’t playing. So it will probably be a lot of Zach Ertz again with Goedert getting redzone targets. Ertz has 9 receptions in each of their last two games. The run game is a bit scrappy too with Jordan Howard listed as questionable as well meaning the LONDONBORN might get some play. Hopefully though it will be more Miles Sanders who has looked good on the deck and through the passing game for them.

Tough one to call but lean Seahawks due to Eagles injuries – Jacob Hollister anytime – 6.00 (365)

Lions -3.5 @ Redskins: 40.5 (was 43)

Big Bo Scarbrough. I saw the news that he had been picked up by the Lions, but completely forgot come game-time, I’d imagine he’d have been 20s to score last week and he did with a TD and 55 yards from 14 carries. It was the most carries any Lions RB has had since Kerryon went out and that should continue in a game they should win comfortably tonight. Jeff Driskel is an adequate backup and one of the more athletic QBs in the league, he rushed for a TD himself and 51 yards last week, set at 22.5 for this one. He’s a decent enough passer too and Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay should do well, as well as Amendola who was involved a lot last week as well.

The Redskins aren’t good, they rushed in Dwayne Haskins and he’s challenging Rudolph for worst QB in the league, although at least he’s got an arm on him. The bright spot for them this year has been Terry McLaurin but you’ve got to think he’ll get Slay-ed so they might have to aim for the likes of Paul Richardson and Kelvin Harmon. Harmon at least had a 5 receptions last week. The run game should go fairly well against an average Lions run D though and with Guice back alongside AP it’s not an awful unit in all fairness.

Not a game most will be watching, I like the Lions to win and cover though and lean to unders. Kelvin Harmon anytime – 12/1 (365)

Jags +3.5 @ Titans: 41.5

Interesting that there’s no change in spread or total. I’m assuming because literally no-one gives a fuck about this game (Sorry Foxcroft)

Not much from either side tbf. Nick Foles returned for the Jags last week and did all right, nothing special in a heavy defeat to the Colts. DJ Chark got 2 TDs, but everyone expects Dede Westbrook to get more of the ball. Fournette only got 8 carries last week, I’m sure that will bounce back to the norm. I don’t know what they’re going to do but I know I don’t like it.

The Titans coming off a bye have a decent defense ranked 4th vs the run, so they should be able to slow down Fournette and their man on the ground should have a good game as he historically does against the Jags. Only 44 and a TD earlier in the year but his blow up game around this time last year was against them with 238 and 4 TDs. The pass game has been far better with Tannehill in the team, but it’s tough to pick a pass catcher to target. The likeliest outcome is the tight ends, Firkser and Smith have been good for him and Delanie Walker is possibly back for this one too.

I think Titans win and cover.

Cowboys +6 (was 6.5) @ Pats: 46.5

This is the second late game making it essentially a stand-alone primetime game after it got shifted from the late late game. It should be a cracker and one I don’t want to try and call.

The Cowboys have looked good against poor teams this year and Dak Prescott leads the league in passing yards with a good trio to throw to. Amari Cooper isn’t on the injury report this week, Michael Gallup had a huge game last week (after I traded him in fantasy of course) and Randall Cobb stepped up last week too. The Patriots are great on defense this year though and I think Chris Wesslings take on how they’ll cover the Cowboys receivers is probably correct, Gilmore on Gallup with Cooper double-teamed which should mean room for Cobb.

They should really be involving Tony Pollard more in the run game alongside Zeke, he was a good change of pace for them last week and scored a receiving TD. Zeke hasn’t really got going since missing the start of the season although averaging 83 on the ground is something most backs in the league would consider great, and he still scored 2 TDs last week.

The Patriots are frustrating. They really aren’t looking great on offense. The run game is shocking, the pass game isn’t much better and despite winning last week Brady had a hissy-fit because someone else threw the game winning TD. Michel, Burkhead, White will all get rush attempts although I’ll be staying away from most of them Michel should in theory do well, but can’t be trusted.

The passing game is muddled too. They gave N’Keal Harry his first start last week and he’ll need to step up as it seems Mo Sanu will be missing this one through injury. Julian Edelman had his usual game and they’ll need Philip Dorsett back for a semblance of a deep threat for them, I think he’s cleared concussion protocol so should go.

The injury news has been weird on this game, Flu seems to be going through the Cowboys facility (nice work Belichick) and Brady mysteriously appeared on the report for the Pats this week. He’ll be fine.

A tough one to call, the Cowboys are the better team this year, but it’s a huge coaching mis-match and it’s folly to take on the Patriots at home. So I’ve GOT to lean to them winning.

Randall Cobb o40.5 rec. yards – 1.90 (888)

Packers +3.5 (was 3) @ 49ers 48 (was 46.5)

This game was rightly flexed into primetime in the states though. It should be a cracker with the 8-2 Packers travel down to the 9-1 49ers, the winner puts themselves in pole position for the #1 seed and home-field through the playoffs.

The Packers are coming off a their bye week having beaten the Panthers the week previous to that. It’s been a weird season for them this year. Rodgers hasn’t impressed as much as I thought he would this season but has had standout games. He didn’t throw for a TD in their last game though so I’d expect a couple in this one, he won’t have been too happy with that. They’ve had a mixed wide receiver corps this year but Davante Adams has played a couple in a row now and finished the Panthers game with 118 yards. He’s key to the team as Lazard, Allison and Kumerow can mix in they can’t run the team. Jimmy Graham is still plodding along at tight end for them as well.

The Welshman Aaron Jones got all the TDs last time with a hat-trick on the ground but that was against the worst run D in the league it will be tougher in this one although the 49ers rank 19th vs the run…He and Jamaal Williams have been a good partnership on the ground and through the air for the Packers. Jones quite obviously the main TD Threat for them.

The 49ers beat the Cardinals last week although it looks more comfortable than the result shows and could easily have gone the other way against the rookie coach and QB in Arizona. Jimmy Garoppolo… Is he any good? Remove the games vs the Cardinals and he’s not reached 300 yards and has a 10:8 TD to INT ratio. It’s a tough one to judge because their run offense has been so good he’s not had to do anything. He has done what has been required in each game though and his win record is ridiculous. With a passer rating nearing 100 I can’t say he’s bad.

The 49ers are beaten up though. George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, Deebo Samuel are all listed as questionable although all expected to play it’s not great for them as they’ve all been great for them at different moments this season. Kittle leads the team in rec. yards, Sanders has been great since he arrived and Deebo stepped up the last couple of weeks without those guys at full fitness. Kendrick Bourne seems to be the man in the redzone, he doesn’t get a lot of targets but has scored in 3 consecutive games for them.

Matt Breida is once again on the injury report as well, he usually is, but this time it looks like he’ll be missing out. So it will be more Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert and probably Jefffffff Wilson. All are good in this system thanks to the genius of Kyle Shanahan planing so well, and all are good catching the ball as well. Even Kyle Juszczyk got a few catches last week, he’s a tough man to stop once he gets moving. I was hoping for closer to 14s for Juice, 13/2 isn’t worth the risk. Big Jeff at 8/1 isn’t too shabby though.

This should be a cracker and a great game for the neutral to watch.

I think i’m leaning to the Packers getting the points. Kendrick Bourne anytime – 5.25 (Uni/888)

Summary. 2 pt stakes unless stated.

Line parlay;

  • Lions -3.5, Jets +3, Titans -3.5 @ 6.28/1 on 365

Player props

  • Matt Ryan o305.5 passing yards – 1.83 (365/Skybet)
  • Pit v Cin – Total sacks o4.5 – 1.61 (Bet365)
  • Kareem Hunt o3.5 receptions – 1.83 (365/Skybet) – NAP – 5 points
  • Josh Jacobs o2.5 receptions – 2.50 (365/Skybet)
  • Randall Cobb o40.5 rec. yards – 1.90 (888)

TD Scorers

  • Jacob Hollister anytime – 6.00 (365)
  • Kelvin Harmon anytime – 12/1 (365) – 1pt
  • Kendrick Bourne – 5.25 (888)

I do like the Skybet treble –

  • C.McCaffrey (CAR), A.Kamara (NO) & M.Evans (TB) to score 3+ Touchdowns between them – 7/4

First time in a month I’ve had a Sunday morning to get these done. So might have over-done it!

Good luck if you’re following along.

NFL119_UK10Bonus_708960

Once again if you win anything tonight or want to help out a family who have had some tragic news in recent weeks then please have a read of the Just giving page for Steve Raynes family – https://www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding/Steve-Raynes – He was a great lad who I had many a chat with about Fantasy football and betting in general, he spanked me in two leagues in his final week on the earth which I’m sure he took pleasure in. The sod.

Give Jamie Byrom a follow too, he’s going to be setting up a Draftkings league with some great prizes and money going towards the fundraiser above. I’ve had a sneak peak of the prizes and there’s some amazing stuff in there, so keep an eye on him and Kickermatter twitter feeds. I’ll post on here when it’s all good to go anyway.

Enjoy the evening and hopefully a Bengals win!

Adam.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑