Week 12 – TNF – Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans; #Colts v #WeAreTexans

One bet, one winner on Monday night, thankfully avoided most of the player props as injuries hit the Chiefs and made it a weird game. But we had our longest field goal winner and that’s all that matters from there, left us around even for the weekend as a whole. Not great, but not too bad.

NFL119_UK10Bonus_708960

Draftkings have extended their Deposit $5 get $10 bonus, so if you’re yet to sign up and want to see what Daily fantasy football is about then now is the perfect time to do it, and once you do make sure you join my league and you’ll get notified when there’s new contests up as well as my weekly $5 entry, top 3 contest.


Colts +3.5 @ Texans: Total – 46

There’s a 3 on Skybet @ 1.83 if you prefer.

The battle for the AFC South is here! Both teams currently sit at 6-4 with the Colts top due to winning the earlier contest between the two of these. If they win it puts them in a commanding position, if the Texans win it equals the H2H between the two and gets them a game ahead. It’s a big game.

Thursday night games so far this season –

  • Favorites-Dogs (SU) 6-4
  • Favorites-Dogs (ATS) 3-7
  • Home-Away (SU) 7-3
  • Home-Away 4-6 (ATS)
  • Totals (Over-Under) 5-5

So, home teams as usual winning most straight up, but away teams leading against the spread. Totals equal.

  • The last 10 games between these two… Houston is 4-6 Overall, 3-5-2 ATS, and 4-6 Over/Under in these games, Unders has hit in 4 of the last 6.
  • Indy have won 5 of the last 6 in Houston.
  • The Colts won the earlier game this season 30-23 as 1.5 point favourites

This is a very tough game to call as there’s a ton of injury news on each side and I think quite a few of them will be game-time decisions which sucks for those of us in the UK.

Colts

The Colts stuffed the Jags 33-13 last week to take them to 3-0 in division. It was the first game they’ve been involved this season that’s been decided by more than one score.

It was an impressive performance as they lost Marlon Mack to a fractured hand but didn’t really miss a step on the ground, finishing with 264 rushing yards as a team as the offensive line opened up gaps for Mack and later Jonathon Williams to exploit, both players went over 100 yards and Mack himself a TD before the injury. It was great work from Williams who was only in the squad as a backup due to the usual backup Jordan Wilkins was missing with a foot injury. It does muddle things for us on a short week though. I would expect Wilkins to get the first crack at it tonight as he’s been the 2 for most of the season and done fairly well in the short moments he’s had. BUT a lot depends on the injury news. One man to look at would probably be Nyheim Hines who’s the general 3rd down back for them. I’d expect him to probably get a bit more of the ball.

The passing game was nothing last week but Jacoby Brissett has been great for them this year after being thrown into action with the Luck retirement. He’s been conservative and it helps that they have one of the best offensive lines in the league, but a 15:4 TD to INT ratio is nothing to be laughed at, including 4 against the Texans in the earlier game. He’s also mobile as he showed with his rushing TD last week.

IFFFFFF TY Hilton misses out, which I’m leaning towards then there’s not a whole lot of talent at WR for the Colts, the likes of Chester Rogers, Zach Pascal, Marcus Johnson aren’t exactly top tier talent although Pascal has had a fairly decent season and seems to have  a decent connection with Jake Brisket. Pascal counted up 2 TDs and over 100 yards in that game vs the Texans. They do have some good tight ends though, Jack Doyle gets more of the ball between the 20s while Eric Ebron is generally the TD threat for them and has made some amazing catches this season. Ebron is another who had his best game of the season against the Texans earlier in the year… and Doyle has scored in their last two matches.

They’ve got a solid defense as well, 10th vs the pass 23rd vs the run for the season and Linebacker Darius Leonard looks to be back to form after missing a few games with concussion earlier in the season.

NFL: OCT 06 Colts at Chiefsrotoballer.com

Texans

The Texans come into this after an embarrassing 41-7 loss in Baltimore last week. They’re not the first team to give up that many points to the Ravens though and they won’t be the last. The last big defeat Watson had he was back on the field after the stadium emptied throwing the ball and trying to better himself, so I’m thinking he’ll have been quite intensely watching film and figuring out what went wrong last week.

It was the first time since high school that Deshaun Watson had lost a game by more than 7 points. He’s a winner and last week would have hurt him, not just because he took 6 sacks, threw an INT and zero TDs, but all he’s known is playing well. He didn’t have the best of games vs the Colts earlier in the season, finishing with 308 1 TD and 2 INTs. I’ve got to think last week was a blip and expect him to bounce back tonight, he wasn’t in the MVP race for nothing.

He has had a varied cast to throw to as well with the Texans suffering injuries at WR. Will Fuller has missed the last few weeks due to his usual hamstring injury, in fact the last game action he had was against the Colts, he’s questionable to play tonight and without him Kenny Stills has had to try and step up. He started his Texans career well but hasn’t done much in recent weeks and still only has the TD he scored on debut on his stat-sheet for the season. One man who has a couple more TDs though is DeAndre Hopkins. He had his best game this year against the Colts finishing with a TD and 106 yards against them, while the numbers haven’t really been there for him to the extent I’d expected he’s still one of the best in the league and should have had a TD last week had he not been mauled before the ball arrived. DeAndre Carter and Steven Mitchell Jnr will probably mix in as well while Keke Coutee seems to have been cast aside now despite having big games vs the Colts last season.

The run game is mainly Carlos Hyde who’s averaging around 17 touches per game and got the sole TD last week making it 4 on the season. He’s not the best in the league but he’s been running pretty well this season. The passing touches from the backfield usually go to Duke Johnson though he’s getting 6 or so rush attempts as well on average.

Darren Fells is apparently a thing at tight end. He leads the team with 6 TDs this season, he’d only had 10 in 5 seasons before this year, so whether it carries on isn’t something I want to try and call. Jordan Akins is there too.

The Texans defense isn’t great 25th vs the pass, 10th v the run, especially without JJ Watt getting pass rush, so Brissett will probably have a fair amount of time to throw the ball.

Summary

My god, I have no idea. Usually doing these write-ups gives me a chance to talk though the game and gives me some kind of lean towards things. But with the injury worries for both teams and the fact we probably won’t find out till 2330 or so over here, it’s tough to go for anything.

I’d have to lean to the Colts with their record vs AFC South teams and the superior coaching. BUT The Texans are at home on a Thursday which causes more conflict in my mind.

So obviously I’m not taking a spread or a total. I could see both sides of that as well.

And frankly the odds on TD scorers are pretty shit as well. 3.75 for Fells, Ebron, Pascal arguably the best values on there. The one I think I’ll have a small nibble on though is Nyheim Hines anytime at 3/1.

Skybet have their usual £10 get £5 free offer on RaBs.

  • Safe one – J.Brissett & D.Watson 220+ Pass Yds Each, C.Hyde 40+ Rush Yds@ 2.50

Got my £10 on that, free fiver on Pascal and Fells both to score at 14/1. I’ll record the safe bet on the P/L ‘tother just a personal one.


Once again if you win anything tonight or want to help out a family who have had some tragic news in recent weeks then please have a read of the Just giving page for Steve Raynes family – https://www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding/Steve-Raynes – He was a great lad who I had many a chat with about Fantasy football and betting in general, he spanked me in two leagues in his final week on the earth which I’m sure he took pleasure in. The sod.

Give Jamie Byrom a follow too, he’s going to be setting up a Draftkings league with some great prizes and money going towards the fundraiser above. I’ve had a sneak peak of the prizes and there’s some amazing stuff in there, so keep an eye on him and Kickermatter twitter feeds. I’ll post on here when it’s all good to go anyway.

Good Luck with whatever you’re on, it’s the start of a great looking weekend of football.

Adam.

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