Week 13 – SNF – Previews and betting tips #NFL100

Had a few longshot punts on Thursday night which didn’t pan out, mainly on tight ends, the Bears obviously used the tight end I didn’t back although he was surprisingly short in price when I looked (7/1 or so) Cook had the yards but no score for the Saints, one to keep an eye on week on week at the moment as he looks settled in the Saints offense now.

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Browns -2.5 @ Steelers: 39

A re-match of the battle at the sadness factory from a couple of weeks ago, everyone involved in that misses out this week with Garrett, Ogunjobi and Pouncey suspended and Mason Rudolph finally benched for proving how insanely shite he is at football. Saying that I’m not sure he was even the worst QB on the field vs the Bengals last week…So Devlin Duck Hodges starts this week. The Browns won comfortably at home and with the Steelers missing Conner and Juju once again they’re depleted on offense. The Browns should be confident and are still in the HUNT for a playoff spot, Kareem has helped their offense greatly since he came back from suspension and though he fucked us over last week I’m thinking he’ll top his receptions target this week. Benny Snell will probably have the carries in the Steelers backfield, I’d lean over 50.5 rush yards for him, but as they could easily give Samuels more I’ll pass on it.

Money has been on the Browns all week, they opened around pickem. I’m on that side too, they should win this one in a hostile atmosphere. Lean under the total.

Packers -6.5 @ Giants: 45

Will the real Aaron Rodgers finally stop being so fucking shit for fantasy and gambling and have a decent game? He should do against a Giants secondary which seems to have given up, they even let Trubisky have a good game against them. Davante Adams has been back a few weeks now and seems to be the only person worth targeting in Rodgers eyes. Allison and MVS are practically worthless, Lazard and Kumerow seem to be getting more time. They’re good on the ground with the welsh duo Jones and Williams forming a good partnership.

Saquon has been garbage this year for the Giants and while Daniel Jones is decent enough when he’s not fumbling he’s plateaued in recent weeks. They’re with Evan Engram again, and Golden Tate misses out with concussion so I think I’m all in on Shepard receptions, he was targeted heavily last week and finished with 5 catches. His line is 5.5 on 365 at 6/5 or 4.5 at 4/6 on Skybet.

Packers should win and cover, but I don’t wanna take it. Lean to the overs. 

Sterling Shepard o4.5 receptions – 1.50 (Skybet)

Jets -3 @ Bengals: 42.5

I took Jets -3 early in the week when I thought we’d be starting Ryan Finley again, strangely that line hasn’t moved at all since it was announced we’d given up on that experiment and brought Andy Dalton back. That move is great for the whole offense so I’m leaning towards the Bengals now. Tate, Boyd, Eifert and co. all get bumps from the move. The Jets are great vs the run though, so it will be a tough night for Mixon fans.
The Jets have scored 34 points in 3 consecutive games and usually get a TD on their first possession. Darnold has looked comfortable when not under pressure and used his legs well last week too. Ryan Griffin is looking for 3 in a row at tight end, and may well get it against a Bengals secondary which is allergic to tackling.
 
The Bengals are obviously looking to win at least one game this year, this isn’t a bad opportunity although as always this season we’re getting a team at a good point for them. I want to say the Bengals win, but lets be fair. They’re not great. I think it goes over the total.
 
I love Auden Tate props, they never seem high enough. Either o42.5 yards or o3.5 receptions both on PP – Auden Tate o3.5 receptions – 1.80 (PP)

Eagles -10 @ Dolphins: 44.5

Carson Wentz. Are you any good? He’s had a ton of excuse forgiving him for being poor this year, there’s been constant injuries on the Eagles team, especially last week when he had probably the worst WR corps in the league. They have Jeffery and Agholar back this week and one of them is a capable receiver. If you wanted a team to bounce-back against then this is the one you want, and with the Cowboys hilariously losing again the NFC East is still up for the taking. They need to put on a show tonight. Miles Sanders should have a big game for them. 

The Dolphins don’t need much talking, they’ll put up some points, Fitz has a good connection with Parker, but the Eagles defense has been really good recently. Ballage is shit. Patrick Laird (13/2)? Myles Gaskin (12/1)? Fuck knows. 

Eagles win, and should probably cover, but they’ve been so poor recently I’m reluctant. Leaving the total too

49ers +5.5 @ Ravens: 45

I’ve saved this preview till the end as it’s one I’ve got to dig deeper into.

49ers; 10-1, NFC #1 seeds currently 

The 49ers destroyed the Packers at home last week and restricted Aaron Rodgers to 104 yards, 43 of them on 7 targets to Devante Adams. They were getting constant pressure on Rodgers because their defensive line is elite. They’ve got a lot of 1st round talent there with Bosa, Buckner, Thomas, Armstead have all been great, as well as Dee Ford although he misses out again in this one. I think inside pressure will be the key for them in this one as the Ravens have lost their pro-bowl level centre for the season. The LB corps is good too led by Fred Warner who’s been good for a couple of years now and the secondary has Richard Sherman still locking players down frequently. It’s a great unit ranked as #2 vs the pass and #16 vs the run this year. 

Offensively they’ve got the best schemer in the business this year calling plays for them, I’ll admit I wasn’t too confident in Shanahan and Garoppolo coming into this year, but the way they get their pass catchers WIIIIDE open is something to be admired. On the whole they want to be a run first team and have involved all their backs this year with Tevin Coleman being the main man since his return from injury, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson both mixing in as well. Matt Breida is missing again this week through injury, but was running well too earlier in the year. Coleman and Mostert both scored on the ground last week, Wilson has been the RZ back for much of the year too.

The passing game is tough to call. George Kittle is obviously the main target, he’s a freak and is playing with a bone chip in his ankle. He had a couple of weeks off with it before returning with a bang last week finishing with half of his QBs passing yards, 129 and a TD for him. I’d have to lean o5.5 receptions for him. Since week 5 though the Ravens haven’t allowed more than 40 yards to opposing tight ends and only 2 TDs on the season to the position. Dante Pettis misses out, who cares. Emmanuel Sanders should be good to go and a little fitter than last week. He started on fire after his trade from Denver and should be back towards that level in this, 47.5 his line, Deebo is banged up too 44.5 his line, but he’s looked great filling in for Sanders recently. Richie James is a speedster who could get the odd target, and another of “my boys” Kendrick Bourne is effective in the redzone. 

All that said I’m STILL not 100% in on Jimmy Garoppolo which seems ridiculous to say given his win record with the Niners. I may be proved very wrong on this one, and admittedly I’ve not watched every minute of any 49ers game this year. I will be on this one though and it’s something I’m looking forward to. The bare stats show he’s great, he’s had a rating over 100 in 4 of his last 5 games, so I’m sure my apprehension is un-warranted on him. He’s got a tough task tonight as the Ravens rank #3 against the pass and have only allowed 3 passing TDs since week 6, no multiple pass TD games, and have an interception in every one of those games. 

Ravens; 9-2, Currently #2 seeds in the AFC

The Ravens are rolling and sweeping all and sundry aside in recent weeks. They’ve been unstoppable on offense due to the fact they’re completely different to every team in the league. They run the ball more than any other team, they’re aggressive on 4th down and a stat I’ll paraphrase (as I can’t remember entirely) is that they run out of shotgun twice as much as any other team in the league, a move which has a higher success rate than pretty much any other play. They’ve scored 30,37,49,41 and 45 points in their last 5 games.

The run game is what their offense is predicated on, and it’s been immense. Mark Ingram has 9 rushing TDs this year and is averaging over 5 yards per carry, he’s been involved more in the passing game in recent weeks as well with 3 TDs in his last two games there. They’ve been using Gus ‘the bus’ Edwards more recently as well, it could be due to the fact they’re blowing teams out, but I think he’s earnt more snaps on offense, he’s averaging the same 5.2 YPC for them this year.

The passing game is tough to call as it’s fairly low volume but ridiculously high success. The 5 game spell that they’ve scored 30 or more points in each game, the most pass attempts from Lamar Jackson has been 24, and he’s thrown for 13 TDs in those 5 games. I’ll dig into Lamar in a minute. The main men for him are his tight ends. Mark Andrews being the main recipient with 6 TDs and 643 yards this season from 50 receptions. He’s had some huge games and is a YAC monster. Hayden Hurst and Nick Boyle also get a fair few looks. Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown suitably had a good game going back to California last week, he’s been struggling to practise fully with a leg injury so it’s been tough for him but he’s got the pace and ability to get open on any given play which makes him very tough to defend against. Seth Robert, Willie Snead and Myles Boykin round out the WR group. I can’t tell you who will get the ball but they’ve all added to the offense. 

For me, Lamar Jackson is the MVP-elect this year. I know that Russell Wilson has better passing figures and is brilliant as well, but it’s not all about that is it… The way Lamar plays has been seemingly impossible to stop this year. They smashed the #1 ranked Pats defense at home, Lamar almost single-handedly won the game for them in Seattle, and they’ve dominated weaker teams this year. He’s on target for 1,200+ rushing yards, 3,500 passing yards and hasn’t thrown an INT in 6 weeks. He became the youngest player to have two perfect passer ratings in the same season (admittedly vs the Dolphins and Bengals) and only the second ever with Big Ben. His electric on the ground, with the burst on his first few yards getting him open and his long speed something that’s tough to defend against.

Summary

This should be a fucking beauty to watch. They’re two of the best coached teams in the league this year, they’re both top 5 against the pass, and middling vs the run. So it makes sense that’s where the game will be won. 

The 49ers worst defensive games this year have been against mobile QBs, Murray twice and Wilson have both scored the 3 highest points against them this year. That obviously leans it quite heavily towards the Ravens. 

It’s a west coast to east coast early kick off for the 49ers, a spot where teams tend to travel, but the Ravens are on a short-week coming back from the west coast as well. It looks like it’s going to rain the entire game which suits the Ravens as well, they’re far more used to playing in 3 degrees and rain.

I’ve got to lean to the Ravens covering the spread and probably a lean to the under on the total with the expected weather. 

I think just the one bet on this, just enjoy the game!

Gus Edwards o28.5 rush and rec. yards – 1.83 (365/Skybet)

Buccaneers -2.5 @ Jaguars: 47

The Jags opened as favourites in this one, I took Bucs +1 a couple of days ago, so there’s been a ton of cash on the Bucs. Which I get. The Jaguars have looked horrible in recent weeks, they can’t protect Foles at QB and their defense has been garbage especially against the run.

The Bucs boast two WRs with over 1,100 yards receiving this year, one will get AJ Bouye, the other will have the better game. Probably Godwin again but it’s tough to pick which one will blow up on any given week. For the sake of my fantasy team, I hope Mike Evans. Ronald Jones has been getting more and more in the backfield and even get a redzone attempt last week instead of Barber getting it. 

The Jags aren’t awful on offense, DJ Chark is leading the AFC in TD receptions, Dede Westbrook is getting targeted more and the Bucs secondary is poor. The Bucs run defense is leading the league though so Leonard Fournette may well struggle on the ground but only needs one run to change his entire night. He’s also been targeted a lot out of the backfield recently. I was looking for L4 receptions, but it’s 4.5, should still go over, but I was hoping for 3.5 really. 

Got to take the Bucs to win and cover, and over on the total

Ronald Jones o48.5 rush yards – 5/6 (365)

Titans +1 @ Colts: 43

Good luck calling this one, AFC South games have been weird this year, and the Colts don’t do games with big differences in scores. The Titans have been great since Tannehill took over at QB, he’s top 5 in fantasy scoring, and not only is he throwing the ball well he’s shown a lot on the ground as well. They’ve ridden Derrick Henry a lot this year, remarkably he’s had 18 TDs in his last 16 games (a full season) I think it’s safe to say they’ve figured out how to use him finally. He’s only had 3 games without a score this year. It’s tough to pick anyone in the passing game of either of these teams and that’s shown in the yardage lines, the highest line is on AJ Brown at 43.5 yards. 

The Colts are without TY Hilton again which hurts them a lot and they lost Eric Ebron to the IR this week as well, so they’ll likely carry on what they’ve been doing and use their awesome offensive line to pave the way for Jonathon Williams to have another decent game. Jacoby Brissett is good with his legs as well and has scored rushing TDs in consecutive games now. I love myself a bit of Big Mo at tight end, he’s been out there on offensive snaps the last few weeks and I think he’ll be the endzone threat with Ebron out. I hope so anyway. 

Lean to the Titans and unders. 

Mo Alie-Cox anytime – 10/1 (WillHill), Jack Doyle o3.5 receptions – 2.10 (Skybet)

Redskins +10 @ Panthers: 39 

Redskins? Blah. Haskins had a game winning drive last week with Terry McLaurin showing his awesome-ness. Guice is back and looking all right. The Panthers are ranked 32 against the run. That’ll be bottom of the league and the Redskins want to run the ball which sets up a conundrum in who will get the attempts. For once the Redskins actually match up pretty well with someone. 

DJ Moore has been targeted heavily in recent weeks and has stepped up. His last 6 games have seen at least 9 targets, and only one of those has had less than 5.5 receptions. He’s real good and Kyle Allen likes him. Christian McCaffrey is the best in the league at RB. He should have a field day in this one, could even be a little Reggie Bonafon at the end of the game.

DJ MORE MORE MOOOOOORE o5.5 receptions – 1/1 (Skybet); Reggie Bonafon anytime 22/1 (Betfair) 0.5 pt

Rams @ Cardinals

Fuck me the Rams have been shit this year. Jared Goff can’t cope with pressure, the run game isn’t the same and their entire offensive has been poor. Defensively they’re all right, but I did enjoy seeing the Ravens players mocking Ramsey on Monday night. The offense should bounce back in this one, but I’m so far away from liking the Rams at the moment I’m struggling to put any faith in them doing it. I could do with Kupp stepping upp in Fantasy though. 

The Cardinals are at home coming off a bye and facing a team on a short week. It’s a great spot for them and Kyler Murray despite a potential Hamstring injury has been reported as “unlimited” in his game-plan. That’s huge as his mobility is key to his success. I’ve been impressed with the Cards this year, they’ve been fun to watch. Chase Edmonds returns to further muddle the run game though, David Johnson looked horrible before the bye, Kenyan Drake looked good. The pass attack is varied too, you’ve got to think Ramsey will be on Kirk so Fitzgerald should have a better game and they’ve got a bevy of guys behind them too. Andy Isabella probably the most notable.

I’d lean to the Cardinals (probably getting 3 points) but it’s one I’ll be staying away from.

Chargers -3.5 @ Broncos: 37.5

Chargers have been getting fitter through the year and welcome back pro-bowl level safety Derwin James in this one. The worry is that Philip Rivers has been atrocious and faces a good Broncos defense. Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler should do well run and catching from the backfield although it will likely be scores on the ground as the Broncos have only allowed 1 TDs reception to RBs this year.

The Broncos have decided to LOCK IT UP with Drew Lock starting for them, so they’re a no-go as far as I’m concerned on offense. Lindsay and Freeman will likely get more of the ball and Noah Fant will probably get targeted more with short passes. Probably bad news for Courtland Sutton, but I could well be utterly wrong with all this. 

Got to take the Chargers to cover, and nothing on the total.

Raiders +11 @ Chiefs: 50.5

Andy Reid. Off a bye?! Everyone bangs on about this being a great spot for the Chiefs, so much so it’s probably been taken account of in the spread as he’s failed to cover in the last 2 seasons, and is 3/3 in the last 6 years coming off a bye, 4-2 straight up though.

The Chiefs are without Damien Williams and Lesean McCoy was also banged up in the last game they played though isn’t on the report this week. I’m still thinking that Darrell Williams has a big game though. Tyreek Hill is good to go for them on offense as well, so they’re pretty much fully fit. Not a lot more to say on the Chiefs offense, you all know they’re good and they’ll use anyone and everyone depending on situation.

The Raiders players are half coming off a bye too with Derek Carr and Josh Jacobs both taken out of their awful defeat in NY last week. They’ve been poor on the road this year only winning against the Colts. They’re without Hunter Renfrow who broke a rib last week so It should be more Darren Waller again who’s numbers had been lowered since the emergence of Renfrow in recent week. Josh Jacobs is a great running back and should have a good one against a Chiefs team who struggle to slow the run. If you want a long shot without Renfrow then you’re probably looking at Zay Jones, Marcell Ateman and possibly Keelan Doss in that order. Not for me. 

Darren Waller o4.5 receptions – 5/6 (365), Darrel Williams o32.5 rush yards – 5/6 (Skybet)

Patriots -3 @ Texans: 46.5

The Patriots are fucking sick man. Really… flu hit them this week and they had 7 players listed on the IR with illness. All are expected to play but it’s not great preparation for a game which could prove a little tricky for them. They’re a horrible team to handicap when they’re all fit let alone with this mixed in. They’ve not looked good all year on offense, with the defense keeping them in games all year, so it’s tough to write much about them. N’Keal Harry had a TD in his second game last week, Edelman will get 7 receptions, Dorsett should be fine to go. Mo Sanu looks good to go as well, he’s probably quite important for them. Fuck knows. I’m at a loss to say much more about them. Sony Michel had a decent game last week at least?

The Texans are the far better team on offense especially with Will Fuller back for them, but I respect the Patriots defense so much that I’m nervous about taking much for them either. Stephon Gilmore will probably be on Nuk Hopkins and they’ll surely double cover Fuller with a man either side of him. So Kenny Stills? Carlos Hyde has been good on the ground and Duke Johnson is reliable back there as well. 

I’ve got to lean to the Texans winning, but I can’t take it. I wanted to take the overs too, but after writing about it I think it’ll be under.

Nuttin’

Summary

Total/Spread bet

  • Browns -2.5, Bengals v Jets o42.5, Bucs v Jaguars o47; 5.96/1 (Skybet/general)

Anytime TDs;

  • Mo Alie-Cox – 10/1 (WillHill)
  • Reggie Bonafon – 22/1 (Betfair) 0.5 pt

Player props;

  • Sterling Shepard o4.5 receptions – 1.50 (Skybet)
  • Auden Tate o3.5 receptions – 1.80 (PP)
  • Gus Edwards o28.5 rush and rec. yards – 1.83 (365/Skybet)
  • Ronald Jones o48.5 rush yards – 5/6 (365)
  • Jack Doyle o3.5 receptions – 2.10 (Skybet)
  • DJ MORE MORE MOOOOOORE o5.5 receptions – 1/1 (Skybet)
  • Darren Waller o4.5 receptions – 5/6 (365)
  • Darrel Williams o32.5 rush yards – 5/6 (Skybet)

So a few big priced TD scorers again, and more concentration on props.

I am very much looking forward to 1800, not sure how I’m going to watch the Ravens game, Redzone and the Bengals games all at the same time, but I’ll figure something out!

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