Week 13 – MNF – Vikings @ Seahawks; #Skol v #Seahawks

This is a frustrating game some times. Browns stank, Bengals stopped the Jets even reaching the redzone. The TD picks were longshots, the Colts went with Doyle for their TE TD so on the right track there, and the Panthers were awful against the Redskins.

Prop-wise Doyle was in within 15 mins, Tate, Moore and Waller all landed. Shepard only 3 receptions was a killer, Gus got nowhere near as much as expected, and Rojo, less said about the Bucs the better. And Darrel Williams did his hammy.

Tbf poor all round really which is frustrating as it was the first time in a month or so I had a little more time to dig into things.

On the plus side went 5-0 in the Redzone supercomp which helps.

But…

THE BENGALS WON!!!

No 0-16 season for them, a first win for Zac Taylor, and Andy Dalton broke the franchise record for TD passes. (He should have had 2 more from his tight ends as well)


Minnesota Vikings +2.5 @ Seattle Seahawks: 48.5

An interesting game here with some serious NFC playoff implications on the line. The 8-3 Vikings travel to the C-Link to take on the 9-2 Seahawks.

The Vikings need the win to keep up pressure on the 9-3 Packers in the North, and to keep their wildcard hopes alive should they not beat the Pack in a few weeks time. The Seahawks will become the #2 seed in the NFC with a win as they have the tie-breaker against the 49ers at the moment, and should they not win the West will likely be the other NFC Wildcard as things stand.

Favourites are 12-1 Straight up in Monday night football matches this year, 9-4 against the spread. Incidentally the Seahawks are the only dog who have won on MNF this year with their win in SF a fortnight ago. The Totals are 5-8 – over/under.

Vikings.

The Vikings have won all their home games so far this year, meaning obviously, that their 3 losses have come on the road. Two of them early on against divisional opponents, a loss in GB where they came back from a big first quarter deficit and should really have won, a horrible 16-6 loss to the Bears which seems unbelievable now and a loss to Matt Moore’s KC a few weeks back.

Now, I struggle a little with Vikings write ups as for some reason I rate them very highly and think they’ll win the NFC North. They’ve got a solid roster, a good coach and a great homefield advantage.

The main knock on the Vikings is their Quarterback. Historically Kick Cousins doesn’t show up in prime-time games, now I’m hoping he’s put that behind him with their win in Dallas two games ago which was the biggest brightest spot they’ve played in this year. But his record on Monday night is horrible. 0-7 in his career. So if you think all this kind of thing has any bearing on tonight then it’s not a good sign. For the record after week 3 this season where he was called out by his own WRs, Kirk Cousins has been great. Over 100 passer rating in all his games bar a 94.2 in their loss in KC. Multiple TDs in 6 of their last 7 games (the one without was the TNF win against the Redskins) and only 2 games this seasons with interceptions.

It helps that they’ve got one of the best RBs in the league this year with Dalvin Cook finally getting some healthy games linked together. He’s been revelling in the play-action scheme that the Vikings use and has looked unstoppable at times this year. He’s topped 1,000 yards already at 4.8 a clip and has 11 TDs so far. It is worth noting he’s taken a dip in production in recent weeks after a huge start though. He does get involved in the passing game as well with 5,4,7,5 receptions over the last month, no receiving scores this season though. He’s spelled well by Alexander Mattison who is also averaging 4.8 ypc with around 7 carries per game over the season, it varies wildly though. He’s only scored 1 TD this year. They have used Abdullah and the full back CJ Ham in spots, but they’re fleeting appearances.

With Adam Thielen out for the last month the WR corps has mainly been Stefon Diggs, and with Thielen again missing out I’d expect that to continue. He’s had four 100 yard games in their last 6 although as has been the case through his career always seems to struggle to find the endzone, scoring in only 3 games this year. Outside of him you’re looking at the likes of Olabisi Johnson, Laquon Treadwell and their tight ends to step up. ‘Bisi has done a decent job in his rookie season and Treadwell was a first round pick who’s utterly failed to live up to his billing.

Kyle Rudolph has done well with Thielen out of the lineup though, with 4 TDs in their last 3 games including a beauty in that prime-time win against Dallas. Irv Smith has looked good as he’s been involved more, generally rookie tight ends take a while to get into stride but he’s been needed and has generally been there when targeted 27 from 32 targets this year, and Tyler Conklin has had a few receptions lately as well.

Their defense used to be one of the best in the league but the secondary has been susceptible recently and Rhodes appear to be open again, they’re 16th against the pass, and 4th against the run, and last time they played the defense gave up 23 points to Brandon Allens Broncos, although a lot was through trick plays as the Broncos emptied their playbook.

pennyimage-780x498seattletimes.com

Seahawks.

The Seahawks are 9-2 SU on Monday night games with Pete Carroll as coach. Overall, Seattle is 28-5-1 in primetime under Carroll and 18-2 in those games at home.

This season though they’ve struggled a little at home beating the Bengals and Rams by a point, the Bucs by 6 and losing twice by a combined 20 points. So a 3-2 record with negative point differential at home this year, not the dominance we’ve come to expect in front of the 12s

One man who has shown dominance this year though is Russell Wilson, he and Lamar Jackson are rightly miles ahead of the others in the MVP race. A 112 passer rating on the season, 24 TDs, 3 Interceptions (although 2 have come in their last 2 games) and nearly 3,000 yards on the season so far. He’s incredibly difficult to stop and fully earning his $30m or so a year. He’s still getting bummed behind his offensive line though which is something he’s become used to, if they ever fixed that I dread to think how good he’d be. But his mobility is key and his resilience is mighty impressive as well.

His favourite target in the passing game is very similar to Stefon Diggs actually, Tyler Lockett gives Wilson a near perfect passer rating when being targeted; a 136.2 rating which ranks 2nd in the league this season. He suffered a worrying knock against the 49ers and didn’t put up much against the Eagles, the extra rest will have helped him and he’s a full go in this one. Opposite him is the beast DK Metcalf, he’s had a good rookie year and should have had at least 1 TD last week on a 35 yard attempt down the middle of the field. I think he could well bounce back in this one. Josh Gordon has had 34% of offensive snaps last week though finished with just 1 for 10 yards. WR 4/5 are David Moore and Malik Turner who get a few targets a game, they’re tough to trust but both capable of getting free and scoring.

At tight end Jacob Hollister has been good since replacing the injured Will Dissly. He only had 2 for 22 on the stat-sheet last week but was inexplicably missed by Wilson when WIIIIIDE open in the endzone last week. It would have been 3 games in a row with a TD and he was priced very nicely for it. Not quite so this week at 9/4 but it wouldn’t surprise me if he found the endzone again.

Running back is an interesting one for tonight. It’s been Chris Carson all season but he fumbled twice last week and as such only had 8 carries while Rashaad Penny finished with 14 for 129 and a TD. Pete Carroll said after that game that it would be more of a shared backfield which gives me hope that Penny can beat his 26.5 yard line that’s been set for tonight. He was a first round draft pick and had more yards after contact than any other RB who came out that year, which is helpful behind this offensive line. I’m assuming Carson will still be the main man as he has been very good this season, but a healthy Penny adds to their depth there.

The Seattle defense is ranking 14th vs the pass and 17th vs the run according to DVOA this year. They played well against the Eagles last week but didn’t have much to face in all honesty and I think Jadeveon Clowney will be missing again this week.

Summary

Should be a great game. I like the Vikings, I think they’re the better team on paper, but history suggests the Seahawks will win. Probably in a close game.

  • Rashaad Penny o26.5 rush yards – 1.83 (Skybet) – was this line at PP, now 29.5 and 36.5 on 365.

I’m gonna leave it at that.

I think it will be close either way, and you can take the “Any other result” on Tri-bet on 365 at 2/1. Basically that means the game will be decided by 5 points either way.

Good Luck if you’re on anything, and enjoy the game.

Adam.


 

  • Cowboys -2.5 @ Bears: 42.5
  • Ravens -5.5 @ Bills: 43.5
  • Panthers +3 @ Falcons: 48
  • Bengals +8.5 @ Browns: 41 – John Ross back
  • Broncos +9.5 @ Texans: 41.5
  • Lions @ Vikings (got think it will be near double digits)
  • Colts +3 @ Bucs: 47.5
  • Dolphins +5.5 @ Jets: 44
  • 49ers +2.5 @ Saints: 44
  • Redskins +13 @ Packers: 42
  • Chargers -3 @ Jaguars: 43
  • Chiefs +3 @ Patriots: 48.5 – Darrel Williams likely out, Darwin Thompson
  • Steelers -2.5 @ Cardinals: 43.5
  • Titans -3 @ Raiders: 47.5
  • Seahawks -2.5 @ Rams: 46.5
  • Giants +9 @ Eagles: 47

Early lean on Bengals, under in KC v Pats and Chiefs, Panthers v Falcons over, Colts v Bucs under.

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