Week 15 – SNF – Previews and Betting tips

Not long left in the season now and some serious playoff implications on the games tonight!

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Bears +4 at Packers: 40.5

Both teams are still alive in the NFC post-season chase, the Bears have hit a bit of form recently beating the Lions and Cowboys on successive Thursday nights so they’ll be a little more rested here and should welcome back Akiem Hicks and Prince Amukamara to their defense, although they have lost Roquan Smith for the season. Hicks will help them stop the run, something they’ve been sorely missing since he went out injured. The offenese has got going finally as Trubisky has started running more, he finished with 63 yards and a rush TD last week, even Montgomery managed 83 yards on the ground. They still don’t have the best passing game though and with Taylor Gabriel out again it will likely go through Robinson and Miller as it has for the last month.

The Packers are somehow 10-3 on the season. They have not been great to watch as they’ve been stuttering to wins, but a wins a win. Only beating the Redskins by 5 is horrible and they’ll need to be better tonight. Rodgers hasn’t had a great season by any means, he hasn’t got great talent to throw to, but you’d expect him to figure shit out eventually. Davante Adams is the only named talent at WR with Lazard, Kumerow, Tonyan, Allison and old man Graham at tight end all pitching in with the odd catch each game. MVS seems to have disappeared completely. Their run game is good though and Aaron Jones has still scored in every home game bar one this year as he found the endzone last week.

It’s an important game, Bears are on the up, Packers aren’t. The line has them as equal teams. I can’t ever back a Trubisky-led team to win. I’ve literally got nothing on the result of this.

Jace Sternberger, 16/1 – Had a few targets last week, rookie tight end, keep an eye out.

Mitch Trubisky anytime TD – 12/1 (365)

Broncos +10 @ Chiefs: 44.5

HE’S GONNA LOCK IT UPPPPPPPP! Drew Lock looked awesome against a poor Texans defense last week, I definitely didn’t get that one right. 22 from 27 attempts for 309 and 3 TDs in his second game in the league is mighty impressive. A lot of that was to the tight end Noah Fant who finished over 100 and a TD. It was a rare down game for Courtland Sutton who’s been great this year. Philip Lindsay is definitely the man on the ground for now, he led the team with 51 yards and a TD and will likely be the man to do the damage in this one as the Chiefs finally have a decent secondary.

The Chiefs haven’t been lighting things up recently but beat the Pats in Foxborough last year and Fezzik has them as one of the most under-rated teams in the league as Mahomes has struggled with fitness all year, and he took another knock last week to the hand which I’m assuming won’t affect him too much in this. I would assume the Broncos will try and double team Tyreek and get Chris Harris on Sammy Watkins as the #2 although you and I could probably stop Watkins getting a reception this year. Running back is a mess for them though, Damien Williams is officially questionable but didn’t practise friday which is a worry. So McCoy and Darwin Thompson again I guess.

Got to take the Chiefs winning at home but it’s a big spread. Probably lean to the overs.

I want a line on Noah Fant yards but doesn’t seem to be one at the moment. Over 35 or so I’d take.

Texans +3 @ Titans: 51.5

Battle for the AFC South and the early Sky game for the day, both teams are 8-5. This is the first time they’ve played each other this season with the rematch in 2 weeks time, and those games will decide who is the 4th seed in the AFC.

The Titans have been great since Tannehill took over at QB, scoring points for fun, they’ve put up at least 30 points in 4 successive games. They want to run the ball and Derrick Henry is a fucking truck once he gets going, he’s been brilliant for the last 20 games or so of his career, hopefully he’s over the hamstring sprain and will be able to go 100% to start the game at least. The passing game is mainly AJ Brown who is also somewhat of a physical freak. He’s very difficult to take down once he gets going and has done well with limited work, scored twice last week. The tight ends get involed too but figuring whether it’s Jonnu Smith, Mycole Pruitt or Antony Firkser is a challenge. The Texans secondary stinks so should be able to put up points here too.

Texans got embarrassed last week by the Broncos after beating the Patriots. It was an obvious flatspot as they looked towards this game. I think they’ll bounce back and have the talent to do it. They’re a different team with Will Fuller and it looks like he’ll be a go tonight. Hopkins is great but not having the best season, Kenny Stills does a little and the tight ends has gone away recently. The running game isn’t bad with Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson. Deshaun Watson scrambled for two garbage time TDs last week, he’s a top 5 QB (probably) and I’m expecting him to have a good one here against a beaten up Titans secondary.

Line has them even and that’s probably correct. The total has risen all week, opened at 47. So points are expected.

Tannehll o16.5 rush yards is risky, but achievable.

Dolphins +3 @ Giants: 45

Not sure how the Eli Manning Giants are favourites here tbh. They played well for a half last week against the Eagles but didn’t cross the halfway line in the entire second half last week. Darius Slayton looks like he’s legit though with 2 TDs early on last week, his second multiple TD game of the season (was only 20/1 for it though) Sqauon hasn’t been great, but is obviously capable. Tate and Shepard play, Engram out again.

Dolphins scored 21 points last week, so 3 TDs? Nope. 7 field goals as Parker left the game early on with a concussion and Wilson went out too. They’ve both trained this week so should both return for this one. Parker has been great this year and rewarded with a new contract this week, Mike Gesicki has done pretty well in his second year at TE as well. The run game stinks for them though, but Patrick Laird is good catching the ball from the backfield and is pretty much all they’ve got left there.

Can’t take the Giants as a fave, Dolphins win and cover, total goes over. Terrible prices on any TD scorer.

Pats -10 @ Bengals: 41.5

Pats have lost two in a row, whenever that happens they generally fuck up the next team they play. Not good news for the Bengals, but this is probably the worst Pats team we’ve seen for a very long time. Admittedly they were hilariously screwed by the refs last week, but Brady only has one pass catcher he trusts in Edelman. The others, Harry, Meyers and even Sanu haven’t been reliable for him. The run game stinks with Sony Michel ineffective all year, and James White taking over for the past two weeks, but they were trailing in those games. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Michel loaded up this week and Sanu have a big game against his former team.

The Bengals have looked all right in the last couple of weeks and outgained the Browns in a loss last week as they failed repeatedly in the redzone. Their defense has stepped up now they’re all healthy and should be able to pressure Brady. Joe Mixon has been great all year and is getting the rewards now they’ve got Glenn back on the offensive line. The passing game is mainly Tyler Boyd and probably more so now Auden Tate is on IR. Eifert should get a fair few targets too.

Should be a big Mixon game again, tough to predict who does it for the Pats other than Edelman. I was going to go u12.5 carries for Michel, but he gets a lot of work in favourable spots so I’m leaving that well alone.

Pats win, they’ll probably cover, but I’ve a sneaky (probably homerism) feeling the Bengals keep it closer than 10.

Tyler Eifert o18.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (365)

Eagles -4.5 @ Redskins: 40

Urgh. Eagles need the win, they’re still chasing the NFC East title which should come down to their game vs the Cowboys to decide providing both teams do what is expected of them. They’re fucked at WR as they’ve only got 3 healthy guys this week, Greg Ward jnr. Robert Davis and JJ Arcega-Whiteside. A talented bunch, that’s for sure. So it will likely be a lot of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert at tight end, and the run game. Miles Sanders the main man there although Bostin Scott is apparently a thing as well.

The Redskins are a run first team who lost their best runner last week as Derrius Guice went out with a knee injury again, so it’s all Adrian Peterson with a bit of Wendell Smallwood I’d imagine. Dwayne Haskins hasn’t been awful at QB and Terry McLaurin is amazing. Probably lean over on AP rush attempts even at 17.5. Chris Thompson is a great pass catching back who can make something from nothing. Smallwood is 16s, he’ll get some touches, so while unlikely it’s not a terrible price.

Greg Ward o31.5 – 5/6 (Bet365)

Seahawks -6 @ Panthers: 49.5

Seahawks need to keep on winning, the Panthers are done for the season. Only really need to talk about Chris Carson in this one who will get 20+ touches, 140 yards and 2 TDs on the ground against a Panthers team who are the worst in the league against the run. They’ve got a lot of pass catchers so it’s tough to predict who will do what, Tyler Lockett should do the most but hasn’t done much recently. DK Metcalf, David Moore, Josh Gordon are all similar big bodied guys and Jacob Hollister started his career well with them.

The Panthers aren’t great, Kyle Allen is not their future. Christian McCaffrey hasn’t scored for a week or two but still putting up over 100 yards per game. DJ Moore should get his targets, Curtis Samuel always gets open down field rarely gets hit accurately. Ian Thomas is the man I want to target here though, he’s in at tight end again with Olsen out and the Seahawks are the second worst team in the league against the TE.

Chris Carson anytime TD – 4/5 – NAP – 5 points (Bet365), Ian Thomas o36.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (PP) Carson 2 or more – 9/2 (365)

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Bucs -5.5 @ Lions: 45.5

Wow, line has moved considerably to the Bucs, was 3.5 earlier in the week, so I’m assuming that’s good news for Jameis playing this game with a fracture in his hand. He’s going to throw 30 INTs, 30 TDs and 5,000 yards this year. He’s fun to watch that’s for sure. Should be another big game for him even without Mike Evans. The likes of Justin Watson, Breshad Perriman took Evans snaps last week when he went out, both scored. I think Scotty Miller is back this week he’s a good downfield threat too and higher odds than the other two. OJ Howard should have a decent game as well, was targeted a lot more with Evans out and has shown he can do it.

Not much to speak about on the Lions side. TJ Hock on IR, Marvin Jones on IR. So it’s all on Kenny Golladay who scored in garbage time last week and Danny Amendola really. Jesse James at TE isn’t terrible. Big Bo Scarbrough at RB has done all right but the Bucs have the best run defense in the league so will be a struggle for him. The Lions only have 5 INTERCEPTIONS this year.

The line move is correct, Bucs should win this easily providing Jameis isn’t injured.

Browns -3 @ Cardinals: 49

Browns should be able to have a good game against a poor Cardinals secondary but it’s tough to trust them to do anything given they season they’ve had. Baker hasn’t been great, OBJ is a whiny bitch who doesn’t seem to be able to keep his mouth shut. Play your TEs vs the Cardinals. That should mean good games for David Njoku, Ricky Seals-Jones and possibly even Demetrius Harris. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are a good duo in the backfield, should do well here too.

Cardinals have been poor since coming off their bye but was against good defenses, this is a little easier for them so Kyler should have a decent game. The backfield is busy. Kenyan Drake seems to be the main man there now with David Johnson a bit part and Chase Edmonds behind both. The passing game is still difficult to judge, Fitzgerald and Kirk both good receivers. Kirk actually had a very good game against probably the best secondary in the league at the moment last week, so that’s promising.

Browns should win, but I don’t trust them at all. Lean unders.

Jaguars +6.5 @ Raiders: 45.5

Jaguars stink. They can’t stop the run, can’t stop the pass, can’t get much going on offense either and are without DJ Chark do do do do do do do for this one. So, Dede Westbrook should see a bump in targets and Chris Conley probably becomes a thing. Leonard Fournette is average. I’ve said it for years. I’m not a fan of his.

It’s the last game in Oakland for the Raiders before they move to Vegas for next season so it’s going the be LOUD in the black hole and probably a quite emotional game at least for the fans. They’re some of the best in the league so it will be a bittersweet affair for them.

They should welcome back Josh Jacobs but he won’t be anywhere near fully fit. He’s been great this year and is an important part of their offense as they struggle to move the ball through the air. I’d expect Dwayne Washington to have more carries than normal still, he was the man last week with Jacobs missing out. Jalen Richard was involved too. The passing game is horrible, mainly Darren Waller who’s been great this year at TE for them. Tyrell Williams has been shit after a hot start then there’s a bunch of bums, Rico Gafford? Keelan Doss? Zay fucking Jones… who cares. Didn’t realise Moreau was out for the season, so I guess that makes Eric Tomlinson the TE2? 5/1 at 365. 22s at 888

Raiders should win and cover, the Jaguars fucking stink. Quite like the first half line (as suggested on the RJ Bell podcast) 1st half spread; Raiders -3.5 – 20/23 (365) – Random potshot – Eric Tomlinson anytime – 22/1 (Uni/888) – 0.5 stake.

Vikings -1 @ Chargers: 45.5

Money has come on the Chargers as this has dropped to just -1 for the Vikings from 2.5 earlier in the week.

Kirk Cousins, not a 1pm kick off, West coast. Grass. Everyone knows this trend by now and it’s usually not great for him and his team. I have faith in Kirky boy though and they should welcome back Adam Thielen for this one finally. Dalvin Cook is awesome even with a knock and Stefon Diggs completes the trinity for the Vikings offense. Everyone else mixes in, Bisi Johnson has done pretty well this year, Irv Smith and of course Rudolph (it’s his time of the year) do a few bits for them.

The Chargers are getting healthy finally and have looked good for it. They’ve welcomed back key defensive pieces, Derwin James being the main positive for them. Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler are a brilliant duo at RB, Ekeler had a huge game last week with 100 and 100 rush and rec yards. Mike Williams finally scored a TD and they should have had even more against a terrible Jaguars team. It’s been a season of what could have been for the Chargers really, they’re 5-8 with a positive point differential. They’ve been unlucky/poor in tight games.

I want the Vikings to win, I’ve strangely got a bit of a soft spot for them, but this is a tough game to call. I think I’m leaning to the Chargers to be honest.

Falcons +10.5 @ 49ers: 48.5

Falcons are one of the toughest teams in the league to predict. They’ve got a ton of talent but the defense and offensive line really cost them this year. Devonta Freeman is back and ran well last week and Matt Ryan has played well this year, Julio has barely scored a TD but gets his yards every week still. Will Olamide Zaccheus score again this week?! (I just wanted to get his name in here) Austin Hooper is back too, should be involved a lot.

The 49ers won a battle in New Orleans last week, gives them the tie-breaker over the Saints if it comes to it. That game probably took a lot out of them. It seems that Raheem Mostert is the main man in their backfield now, he’s scored three weeks in a row for them. He’s quick. The passing game was great vs the Saints, Sanders has been a vital pick up for them and George Kittle is a god-damn machine. The run at the end of last game was something that very few others in the league could do, amazing stuff.

My one worry here for the 49ers would be that it’s a flat spot with the Rams and Seahawks on the horizon, but Kyle Shanahan is probably too good a coach to let that happen. 49ers win, won’t touch them covering. If you wanted to bet on the spread, either Falcons cover, or 49ers win by 25.

Rams -1.5 @ Cowboys: 48.5

Line move here too, the Rams were 1 point underdogs earlier in the week, now 1.5 favourites. RJ Bell called it the squarest bet of the week and pros seem to be fighting back on the Cowboys as the public over-react to the Rams winning two and the Cowboys losing two.

I’m between the two, I’m definitely not a sharp bettor, but I think I know my stuff. I mean I type 3,000 fucking words on this every week, I guess I think I’m knowledgeable enough on the NFL. So I struggle a bit on these games when I know I’m going against the guys who bet fortunes on the NFL each week.

The Rams have looked good in the past few weeks, they’ve gone more TE heavy and emphasised the run game more which has meant Todd Gurley looking nearer to his 2017 self than anytime this season. It’s meant two big games in a row for Tyler Higbee too who has nearly as many yards in his last two games as he had all last season, topping 100 in both, although they were against the two worst teams vs the TE. It has been a whole lot of Robert Woods in the passing game, his last four games,m 7,6,13 and 7 receptions and he finally scored a receiving TD last week too! It’s meant less for Cooper Kupp which annoys me and Brandin Cooks hasn’t done much since his last concussion.

I’d expect Jalen Ramsey to be on Amari Cooper so probably better games for Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb. The Cowboys stats are great this year, they’re one of the better teams in terms of yards per play, points scored, passing yards, but they’re poorly coached and have been horrible on special teams with Brett Maher missing 10 field goals this year, he gone. I’ve said a few times now Zeke is having a down season, for him anyway. They should just load him up and led him go. Dak Prescott has come down a little in recent weeks after an explosive start to the year.

The Cowboys are yet to beat a team with a winning record. I like the Rams here, sod the pros.

Todd Gurley o68.5 rushing yards – 5/6 (365)

Bills +1 @ Steelers: 37

A very important game for the AFC playoffs, Bills are 9-4, Steelers at 8-5.

It’s likely to be a tough watch for the casual viewer though as both teams do their work on defense. The Bills come into this with a slight chance of winning the AFC East which would be a remarkable achievement for them. To be fair even getting to the playoffs is great work by the coaching staff (despite a ridiculously easy schedule)

They aren’t exactly impressive on offense but were still in with a chance of beating the Ravens at the end of the game last week. Josh Allen is one of the more entertaining QBs in the league, he’s mobile, likes to run and has a big arm, but isn’t exactly accurate. John Brown has been a good addition for them down the field and Cole Beasley has stepped up in recent weeks as the shorter option. Devin Singletary looks like he could be a good running back in this league and Frank Gore will still get his carries. Isaiah McKenzie is another speedy threat for the Bills who can break off a big play occasionally.

The Steelers are horrible to watch on offense ranking 30th on weighted DVOA (which takes into account recent weeks more) but they should have James Conner back for this one which will help their run game at least. It’s not exactly been great with Benny Snell there. They have a third string QB playing and he’s playing like one, I mean he’s infinitely better than Mason Rudolph who I’m not sure will ever play again in the league, but he’s not by any means good. He will throw the occasional deep ball to one of the big guys, Washington or Deon Cain, and he has a shifty Diontae Johnson who showed last week he can make something from nothing.

Defenses are the key here, the Bills have improved up fron recently and Tredavius White is one of the best corners in the league this year, I’d imagine he’ll be on James Washington, he does better vs bigger guys than speedy ones.

The Steelers defense is the best in the league in recent weeks. They have such faith in their secondary that they can load the line up front and TJ Watt, Bud Dupree and Cam Hayward have been fantastic this year.

I hate writing positively about the Steelers, but Mike Tomlin has earnt his mentions as a coach of the year candidate with the work he’s done with backups and the trade for Minkah transformed their defense and has led them to the edge of the playoffs. I don’t want to see them there as they’re an immensely frustrating team to watch as a non-fan, but I can appreciate the work they’ve done even as a hater.

Fuck the Steelers. They’ll win again and practically seal a playoff spot. The twats.

Diontae Johnson longest reception – o19.5 – 10/11 (365)

Summary

Anytime scorers

  • Mitch Trubisky anytime TD – 12/1 (365)
  • Chris Carson anytime TD – 4/5 – NAP – 5 points (Bet365)
  • Carson 2 or more – 9/2 (365)
  • Eric Tomlinson anytime – 22/1 (Uni/888) – 0.5 stake.

“Random” bet

  • 1st half spread; Raiders -3.5 – 20/23 (365)

Player props

  • Tyler Eifert o18.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (365)
  • Greg Ward o31.5 – 5/6 (Bet365)
  • Ian Thomas o36.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (PP)
  • Todd Gurley o68.5 rushing yards – 5/6 (365)
  • Diontae Johnson longest reception – o19.5 – 10/11 (365)

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I’m feeling good about it this week, this is the earliest I’ve had the post up for a while and it’s all flowed pretty well, not a whole lot of debate in my mind on my bets, so lets do this shit and win some fucking cash!

Good Luck with whatever you’re on, should be a cracking night of football again.

Adam (@TouchdownTips on twitter)

Fuck “Dave”.

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