Week 14 – SNF – Previews and betting tips #NFL100

Week 14 is here and it’s crunch time, the good news for Bengals fans is that because the season only starts after Thanks-giving they’re 1-0 so far this year. Amazing.

Did you make the playoffs in fantasy? Fear ye not if you missed out because it’s the playoffs every week on Draftkings and they’re offering $10 free DK Bucks when you sign up and deposit $5 for this week, cracking deal and always something to keep you interested through the rest of the season.

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Ravens -6 @ Bills: 44

Should be another cracking game, initial thoughts were that no-one is stopping the Ravens, but the Bills match up fairly well against them here (If that’s even possible) – Won’t be a whole lot of passing from the Ravens with Tred White shutting down the best WR for the Ravens, the Bills are very good vs the TE as well. I’m not sure they’ll be able to deal with 3 TEs as once, but still.

The Ravens were gashed by outside runs from Mostert last week, the Bills like to use Singeltary now, finally, and he likes bouncing to the outside. Josh Allen has been good recently, the best month of his young career, he’s been keeping it safer. Beasles and Smokey Brown are a very good duo at the moment as well.

Lean to the Bills covering, but I can’t do it.

Panthers +3.5 @ Falcons: 47.5

New head coach for the Panthers makes this difficult to talk about, he’s a defensive coach, and his new assistant is that side of the ball as well.

Falcons have Julio and Hooper back, both teams dead.

Lean Falcons covering and under, no bet.

Bengals +7 @ Browns: 42

The Browns are pretty much done in the playoff hunt, they had a dream-crusher (TM; RJ Bell) last week in losing to the Steelers. Baker Mayfield injured his hand but will play this week, David Njoku has been activated from IR.

Bengals brought back Dalton and won a game, comfortably. Their defensive line has been brilliant recently. They bring John Ross back from IR but he will likely be limited. AJ Green is PLAYING… no, not really, he’s not going to see the field again for the Bengals and that makes me sad.

Can’t be having the Browns as a TD favourite, line has come down from 8.5 earlier in the week already. Kareem Hunt o27.5 rec. yards – 1.91 (PP)

Broncos +9 @ Texans: 42.5

Drew Lock had a good first half then threw for 11 yards in the second half, he’s a rookie and didn’t like entirely awful. Courtland Sutton is great though and will make plays for him. Lindsay seems to have got the role in the backfield.

Texans are without Will Fuller again, for a change, so more Kenny Stills? I’d guess Chris Harris will be dealing with Nuk.

Texans beat the Pats last week, have the AFC South decider next week vs the Titans, this could be a down-spot for them, lean Broncos covering the spread

Lions +13 @ Vikings: 43.5

Blough looked all right last week, a couple of big throws to wide open receivers last week made that game interesting. Vikings D hasn’t been great but I don’t think they’ll allow Golladay that kind of space again. Big Bo set at around 50 yards, probably go over that.

Dalvin Cook is a bit beaten up for the Vikes, It would make sense with a playoff run coming, that they try and keep him to as little as possible tonight so it should be more for Alexander Mattison.

Vikings probably cover at home. Alex Mattison anytime – 11/4 (365)

Colts +3 @ Bucs: 47

Mack is back for the Colts, no TY Hilton again, no Chester Rogers, so all on Zach Pascal and the rest of the unknowns. I’m blatantly betting on Big Mo again, he injured his thumb last week so didn’t see many snaps, but is back here.

The Bucs are great vs the run which is what the Colts want to do so I think they match up well. Jameis has been fairly safe with the ball recently.

Bucs cover. Mo Alie-cox anytime 14/1 (Betfair) – 1pt

Dolphins +5 @ Jets: 46

No idea with this one, Dolphins could sweep the Jets. Which would be funny.

Jets are without Lev Bell, so Billy Powell expected to step up but odds on him are shite.

Nothing tempting at all on this.

49ers +2 @ Saints: 44.5

Could be the decider to the top seeds in the NFC. Should be a great game. Matt Breida returns for the 49ers which muddles the backfield further after Mostert had a cracker last week, Coleman hasn’t been great for them, and the Saints run D is good so tough to trust much there at all really. Saints have been worse vs the pass, but again tough to figure that area out, Deebo has been good, Sanders is getting back to full health, Kittle is always there.

The Saints just win, Drew Brees looks better recently and Jared Cook has stepped up to add a 3rd threat to their offense behind Kamara and Thomas. I can see Taysom Hill having another big game in this one as Payton and Shanahan go head to head for most inventive coach in the league.

Game of the week, I’ve got to lean to the Saints winning in the dome.

Redskins +13 @ Packers: 42

Redskins like to run the ball, Packers aren’t great vs the run. AP and Guice should have decent games, probably not 13ypc again for Guice, but both players are set in the 30s for rush yards.

Aaron Jones has scored in every home game except 1 this year. Packers offense should get rolling in this one, hopefully for my fantasy team it will be a Rodgers game.

Redskins cover. Adrian Peterson o36.5 rush yards – 1.83 (365/Skybet)

Chargers -3 @ Jaguars: 43

Chargers defeats have all been by 1 score or less. They lost in the most Chargers way ever last week and always seem to find ways to fuck it up.

Jaguars have been horrible recently and have gone back to Minshew. Probably means good things for DJ Chark but it’s a tough ask against a healthy looking Chargers defense. Fournette has been involved a lot in the passing game.

Nothing on this.

Chiefs +3 @ Patriots: 49

Chiefs offense hasn’t been great recently, but it hasn’t needed to be. Obviously the biggest test of the season for them against this Pats D. Tyreek will get his, as will Kelce. Sammy Watkins fucking stinks. The running game is interesting, Damien Wiliams is out, Darrel too, so Shady and rookie Darwin Thompson should get a decent workload, Darwin looked all right in garbage time last week.

Chiefs aren’t great against the run, so you’d think the Pats will use Sony Michel a lot, but he’s been shit this year as well and if they get behind he won’t get a sniff. Their passing offense hasn’t been great either but Brady still usually finds a way. He’s pissed off at the moment because he’s only got Edelman to throw the ball to.

Lean Chiefs winning, but you don’t back against the Patriots. Under 49 though.

Steelers -1.5 @ Cardinals: 43.5

Fuck the Steelers. Mike Tomlin has coached like a genius this year, they’re without their starting QB, RB and WR and still winning games. The Bengals had that happen last year and were fucking awful. Fair play to Tomlin. Duck Hodges plays again, he’s not great but infinitely better than Rudolph was. They’re all about the defense though which has been immense this year with TJ Watt leading the charge up front and the pickup of Minkah a great move for Pitt. James Washington will get 1 deep play per week. Vance McDonald should score this week because the Cards can’t defend tight ends.

Cardinals got spanked last week coming off their bye. They need to bounce back this week and have been very entertaining this year on the whole. This is a tough test for them though, the offensive line isn’t very good so could lead to more Murray on the ground. Kenyan Drake seems to be the RB1 now with David Johnson an after thought.

I’m done thinking the Steelers will lose. Steelers win, they’re going to the playoffs and will probably win the whole damn thing. God Bless Pittsburgh and all their fans.

Titans -3 @ Raiders: 47.5

Ryan Tannehill is good? Apparently so, has made the Titans fun to watch. They want to use Derrick Henry more than anything else, he’s a beast. In his last 16 games he’s scored 20-odd TDs and 1,800 yards (something like that) There should be some long shots on show against this Raiders defense, AJ Brown could be in for a good game. Adam Humphries is out.

The Raiders have won all but 1 game at home this year. Josh Jacobs is in the RUNNING for OROY, he’s fun to watch. Passing game is tough to judge, probably a whole lot of Darren Waller over anything else.

I’m leaning Raiders winning this one but it doesn’t really make sense. Ryan Tannehill anytime – 10/1 (365)

Seahawks +1 @ Rams: 47.5

NFC West mega-game. Seahawks just find a way to win, usually by 7 points or fewer. Russell Wilson is great, DK Metcalf has had a good rookie season, Tyler Lockett is efficient. Josh Gordon has a couple of catches a week and Jacob Hollister is doing well at TE for them. Is Rashaad Penny fully in to the running game now? He scored twice last week (25/1 incidentally for that) and looked good on the ground and catching. Chris Carson had more rush yards and a TD, but I think they’re both here to stay.

Admittedly vs a poor Cardinals defense, the Rams looked very good last week, they got the run game going again and it seemed to sort out the whole offense. Bobby Woods was targeted 19 times and finished with 172 yards as Jared Goff had 400 by half time. He’s still not scored a receiving TD this year though. Cooper Kupp looked good, Cooks an after-thought. Is Todd Gurley back? Looked great last week with 95 on the ground and a TD, still only 1 reception though.

I like the Rams here. Wow, huge line more, Seahawks were 2.5 point favourites earlier in the week.

Summary

Anytime scorers;

  • Alex Mattison anytime – 11/4 (365)
  • Mo Alie-cox – 14/1 (Betfair) – 1pt
  • Taysom Hill – 9/2 (365)
  • Ryan Tannehill – 10/1 (365)

Player props;

  • Kareem Hunt o27.5 rec. yards – 1.91 (PP)
  • Adrian Peterson o36.5 rush yards – 1.83 (365/Skybet)

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