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On with the Props!!!
So I’ve left this to a separate post because there’s just so much to get through, Bet365 are surprisingly restricted with only 250 different markets, whereas 888sport have gone all out with 690 markets to dig through for this one. That’s just a little ridiculous.
You’ve got the usual props, yards, receptions, attempts as there is for most games, but they’ve gone even further with 1st half yards, 1st quarter yards, length of first receptions, length of longest reception, player to do X and team to win, as well as match bets between players.
That’s just the player props, obviously the game props have exploded for this weekend too, Paddypower has a whole separate page with game props on it, quarter v quarter betting, number of penalties, will the game be tied after the first score and then becuase Kickers matter a whole lot of punting er… punts.
So the key thing for me is whether you actually bother with anything bar the usual markets.
Because 365 have their usual selection I’ll go through the pages on there with any that catch my eye…
1st quarter line – Superbowls in general start slowly, the books know this and they’ve shaded the line very low because of it. You’re usually looking at 1/4 of the total points for the 1st quarter line, setting it at o/u 10 – Now, to me, you’re a brave man taking the unders on a TD and a FG given the strength of these two offenses.
2nd quarter line – So this one is at least a little more interesting, the Chiefs highest scoring quarter this season has been the 2nd quarter (12.2 per game, 49ers were 5th with 9), they smashed the Texans (28) and the Titans (14) in the 2nd quarter of each playoff game so far. The 49ers had 7 and 20 in their post season 2nd quarters…
The dastardly bookies know this though and have the 2nd as the highest scoring, even so I’m taking the over.
2nd quarter over 16.5 points – 1.85 (PaddyPower)
I won’t bother with the 3rd and 4th quarters, not much there for me personally.
Alternate points spread? I know Tim fancied this to be the highest scoring SB in history… There’s some interesting prices on big total points – over 70.5 at 6/1?
I actually quite like 1st play of the game to be a pass. That’s the underdog in the markets at 2.50 on Skybet
Total sacks u5.5 – 1.57 on 365 isn’t great. Under 4.5 at evens on 888, I think it’s probably going to be less than 5, but it’s a low line given the pass rushers on the field.
Total penalties – I believe I heard (on the Even Money podcast) that the average number of accepted penalties in a Superbowl is 11, line set at 11.5 on 365 at 1.90, 12.5 on Paddypower at 1.57.
Team to score first – See if you can get on the in-play quickly after the Coin toss, because of the size of it all it takes a while between the toss and the kick off, so if you know which team is getting the ball first then you might be able to get involved in-play before things are suspended.
Total touchdown passes o/u 3.5 – over at 1.61, unders 2.20 on Bet365. Got to take the overs, probably just 1 needed from Garoppolo.
Shortest TD scored – u1.5 yards – 1.66 – Not great odds, but it’s one I back every year on the Superbowl.
Time of first score o/u 5 mins – Probably got to lean the overs given the slow starts that usually happen in the SB, but can’t with these offenses, over 1.80, under 1.90 on 365
Obviously I’ve said the KC team points, o27.5
I mean with a 54.5 point total you’d think at least one team will score in every quarter, 49ers are 2.75, Chiefs are 2.50 – One of them probably will, you could back both and be in profit, if both win even better…
Chiefs are favourite for team to score the longest TD, and you’ve got to think with styles of play, the pace they’ve got that 1.80 for that to happen isn’t bad really.
Team scoring first wins the game? – I like the NO on this one, the both teams can come from behind, Chiefs obviously have done their last two games, and Jimmy is good in the 4th quarter – 2.37 (365)
Now the hard work begins.
- Yards – 238.5
- TD passes – 1.5 – over: 1.83 – under 1.83
- Attempts – 30.5 – over: 1.90 – under: 1.76
- Completions – 19.5 over: 1.86 – under 1.80
- Longest completion – 37.5 – o/u 1.83
- Ints – 0.5 – over: 1.62 – under 2.20
- Yards – 302.5
- TD passes – 2.5 – over: 2.20 – under 1.62
- Attempts – 36.5 – over: 1.86 – under: 1.80
- Completions – 25.5 over: 1.80 – under 1.86
- Longest completions – 44.5 – o/u 1.83
- Ints – 0.5 – over: 1.83 – under 1.83
Not touching the yards on either, TD passes I like the over on Mahomes even tempted with 4+ at 3/1 on Skybet. Attempts and completions, I think it’ll be high scoring so lean to over on all of that. Longest completion? lean over on Jimmy.
You can get plus money on both players first pass to be an incompletion – That landed on Brady and Goff in last years game.
I don’t want any part of Mostert/Coleman until I see the team news. It seems like Coelman is going to play which worries me for both of those players lines.
Mostert between 71.5 (Skybet) and 81.5 (Redzone) – nice middle there at least, I’d probably say under if Coleman plays, but not something I want to get involved in.
Coleman 27.5 – lean over if he plays but again, no bet from me
Damien Williams is set at 49.5 to 53.5 depending where you look. – Meh?
Darwin Thompson at just 5.5 is tempting for the overs, he gets 2 carries he’ll go over that line. – Actually the o1.5 carries is a better price at 2.24 on 888.
888 and Redzone actually have Deebo Samuel set at 13.5 which again is interesting, they do like him on the old Jet sweep and he actually scored as many rushing TDs this year as receiving. He’s actually gone over that line in 5 of the last 7 games. It’s a tempter.
The QBs… too late on Mahomes now, he was 23.5 earlier in the week, but 30.5 at 888 is the lowest you can get now, he has run for 53 in both playoff games. – Garoppolo 4.5 – nah.
I’ll just give the 365 lines because it’s laid out so much easier than everywhere else.
- Bourne 23.5
- Juice 12.5
- Kittle 73.5 – o70.5 on Skybet
- Mostert 10.5
- Deebo 55.5
- Sanders 44.5
- Hardman 21.5
- Tyreek 75.5
- Kelce 76.5
- Robinson 20.5
- Watkins 49.5 – 043.5 on Redzone
- Williams 29.5
Like Kittle overs – 70.5 on Skybet, Hardman and Watkins overs – 43.5 on Redzone.
Kittle has a good matchup against the middle of the Chiefs defense, Hardman can get his yards in one go, but I actually prefer the receptions for him (see below) and Watkins has been getting the ball in the playoffs as Tyreek gets better coverage he gets free more.
- Bourne 2.5
- Juice 1.5
- Kittle 5.5
- Mostert 1.5
- Deebo 4.5
- Sanders 3.5
- Hardman 1.5
- Tyreek 5.5
- Kelce 6.5
- Robinson 1.5
- Watkins 3.5
- Williams 3.5 – 20/21 on Redzone
I like the Hardman over, Williams over.
- Bourne 13.5
- Juice 10.5
- Kittle 23.5
- Deebo 23.5
- Sanders 16.5
- Hardman 10.5 (888) 14.5 on Redzone
- Tyreek 27.5
- Kelce 20.5
- Robinson 12.5
- Watkins 20.5 – 043.5 on Redzone
- Williams 12.5
Mecole over, quite like Deebo but it’s a tad high.
Obviously get your odds on this one from oddschecker, no point me going through them on here.
I think there’s going to be 6+ TDs, so should be quite a few going around.
Mostert generally isn’t the goal-line back with Coleman on the field but has scored in 7 of their last 8 games, including the 4 last week obviously. – 1.73 best price.
Kittle only scored 5 in the regular season, and the 49ers defense only gave up 5 TDs to tight ends, not sure how that matters, but there’s that, it puts me off them two slightly.
Bourne and Hardman are probably the value for me again, Bourne at 4.00 on 888, Hardman at 4.50 at Skybet and WillHill. – I said it last week Bourne is targeted in the redzone, and Hardman is speedy and the kick returner most of the time.
Talking of which – Richie James for the 49ers is available at 20/1 on Skybet/WillHill. I’ll have a shot at the price.
As I said in the game props above I don’t actually think there will be many sacks in this one, Patrick Mahomes only took 17 sacks all season, which is quite remarkable, so it’s risky taking any 49ers player to get one. No sack for Bosa is 1.67 on 888, none for Armstead 1.57 over there.
Garoppolo took a few more this year with 36 in the regular season and 3 in the playoffs – I think it’s more likely the Chiefs get one, Chris Jones at 2.41 (888) is probably the most likely for them.
- 2nd quarter over 16.5 points – 1.85 (PaddyPower)
- Total touchdown passes over 3.5 – 1.61 (365)
- Team scoring first wins the game? – NO – 2.37 (365)
- Darwin Thompson o5.5 rush yards – 1.85 (Paddypower)
- Sammy Watkins o43.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (Redzone)
- George Kittle o70.5 rec. yards – 1.83 (Skybet)
- Mecole Hardman o1.5 receptions – 2.05 (888)
- Damien Williams o3.5 receptions – 1.95 (Redzone)
- Kendrick Bourne anytime – 4.00 (888)
- Mecole Hardman anytime – 4.50 (Skybet/WillHill)
- Richie James anytime – 21.00 (Skybet/WillHill)
As always, for me, 2 points per bet. – 22 points staked there.
If I get time tomorrow I’ll have a Request-a-bet round up, but honestly my brain is a bit fried from all the work this week so it might not happen!